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Thread: EUR/JPY Outlook

  1. #1

    Default EUR/JPY Outlook

    Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment as the crosses in still bounded in
    range below 136.08. While another fall cannot be ruled out as consolidation continues, downside
    should be contained by 132.08 support and bring rally resumption. Above 136.08 will target
    136.87 first and then 139.21 high. Also, note that correction from 139.21 has likely completed
    with three waves down to 127.08 already and medium term rise from 112.10 is possibly resuming
    for another high above 139.21. However, note that a break below 132.08 support will in turn
    suggest that rebound from 127.08 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this

    Last edited by MDunleavy; 08-03-2009 at 09:12.
    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

  2. #2


    As discussed before, recovery from 132.17 might have completed at 136.07 already. Break of
    132.90 minor support will flip intraday bias of EUR/JPY back to the downside. Break there will
    confirm resumption of whole decline from 138.70 to 127.08 key support next. On the other hand,
    while another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited below 137.83
    resistance and bring fall resumption.[actionforex]

    P&F EURJPY1440 Box Size200X3 or(4.25%) HI/LO
    Data 169.96 - 112.1 ~ 69 Month ~ 2106 Day
    2003-11-21 00~00
    2009-08-27 00~00

    BJF Trading Group

    170.00|~200||_____________________________________ _____|-0.02%|51.65%
    168.00|~400||________XO______XO___________________ _____|1.15%|49.87%
    166.00|~600||________XOX_X___XO___________________ _____|2.33%|48.08%
    164.00|~800||________XOXOXO__XO___________________ _____|3.51%|46.3%
    162.00|~1000|________XOXOXO__XO___________________ _____|4.68%|44.51%
    160.00|~1200|________XOXO_OX_XO___________________ _____|5.86%|42.73%
    158.00|~1400|______X_XOX__OXOXO___________________ _____|7.04%|40.95%
    156.00|~1600|______XOXOX__OXOXOX__________________ _____|8.21%|39.16%
    154.00|~1800|______XOXOX__O_OXOXO_________________ _____|9.39%|37.38%
    152.00|~2000|______XO_OX____O_OXO_________________ _____|10.57%|35.59%
    150.00|~2200|______X__O_______OXO_________________ _____|11.74%|33.81%
    148.00|~2400|______X__________O_O_________________ _____|12.92%|32.02%
    146.00|~2600|______X____________O_________________ _____|14.1%|30.24%
    144.00|~2800|______X____________O_________________ _____|15.27%|28.46%
    142.00|~3000|______X____________O_________________ _____|16.45%|26.67%
    140.00|~3200|__X_X_X____________OX________________ _____|17.63%|24.89%
    138.00|~3400|X_XOXOX____________OXO_______________ _X_X_|18.8%|23.1%
    136.00|~3600|XOXOXOX____________OXO____________X__ _XOX_|19.98%|21.32%
    134.00|~3800|XOXO_OX____________O_O__________X_XOX _XOX_|21.16%|19.54%
    132.00|~4000|XOX__O_______________O__________XOXOX OXOX_|22.33%|17.75%
    130.00|~4200|XOX__________________OX_X_____X_XOXOX OXOX_|23.51%|15.97%
    128.00|~4400|_OX__________________OXOXO____XOXO_OX O_O__|24.69%|14.18%
    126.00|~4600|_O___________________OXOXOX_X_XOX__O_ _____|25.86%|12.4%
    124.00|~4800|_____________________OXO_OXOXOXOX____ _____|27.04%|10.62%
    122.00|~5000|_____________________OX__OXOXOXOX____ _____|28.22%|8.83%
    120.00|~5200|_____________________OX__OXOXOXOX____ _____|29.4%|7.05%
    118.00|~5400|_____________________OX__O_O_OXOX____ _____|30.57%|5.26%
    116.00|~5600|_____________________OX______O_OX____ _____|31.75%|3.48%
    114.00|~5800|_____________________O_________O_____ _____|32.93%|1.69%
    112.00|~6000|_____________________________________ _____|34.1%|-0.09%
    Column|||||||5673341381833634814131833644457813454 3555_|
    Count||||||||______3__O_______1_1_3__________O____ _____|

    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

  3. #3


    In the past six months, market participants have become experts in identifying the influences of risk trends and translating what it should mean for certain currencies. However, when the intensity behind risk appetite and aversion let up, this sweeping fundamental driver will inevitably lose some of its influence over the market.[dailyfx]
    EurJPY and GBPJPY correlation
    EUR/JPY continued to hold above 131.00 support and had another rebound last week. At this point, we're still favoring the case that price actions from 131.00 are merely consolidation to fall from 138.70 only. Hence, while another rise cannot be ruled out this week, upside should be limited below 136.07 resistance to complete such consolidation. Below 133.40 minor support will flip intraday bias to the downside. FUrther break of 131.29 will indicate that fall from 138.70 has resumed and should target 127.08 key support next. However, note that break of 136.07 will dampen this bearish view and suggest that stronger rise is underway for a retest of 138.70 resistance instead.[actionforex]

    P&F EURJPY240 Box Size100X3 or(2.39%) HI/LO
    Data 139.21 - 112.072 ~ 8 Month ~ 244.83 Day
    Database 1050 records 135.053 (Last Close)
    2009-01-19 12~00
    2009-09-21 08~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris

    BJF Trading Group

    140.00|~1OO||_____________________________________ ___________________|-0.57%|24.92%
    139.00|~2OO||__________________________________x__ ___________________|0.15%|24.03%
    138.00|~3OO||__________________________________x_o _________x_________|0.87%|23.14%
    137.00|~4OO||__________________________x_______x_o _________x_o_______|1.59%|22.24%
    136.00|~5OO||__________________________x_o_____x_o _x___x___x_o_x_____|2.31%|21.35%
    135.00|~6OO||__________________________x_o_____x_o _x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|3.02%|20.46%
    134.00|~7OO||______________________x___x_o_x___x_o _x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|3.74%|19.57%

    133.00|~8OO||______________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o _x_o_x_o___o___o_x_|4.46%|18.67%
    132.00|~9OO||______________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o ___o_x_________o___|5.18%|17.78%
    131.00|~1OOO|______________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x__ ___o_x_____________|5.9%|16.89%
    130.00|~11OO|______________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x__ ___o_x_____________|6.62%|16%
    129.00|~12OO|______________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x__ ___o_x_____________|7.33%|15.1%
    128.00|~13OO|______________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x__ ___o_______________|8.05%|14.21%
    127.00|~14OO|______________________x_o___o_x_o____ ___________________|8.77%|13.32%
    126.00|~15OO|______________x___x___x_____o_x______ ___________________|9.49%|12.43%
    125.00|~16OO|______________x_o_x_o_x_____o________ ___________________|10.21%|11.54%
    124.00|~17OO|______________x_o_x_o_x______________ ___________________|10.93%|10.64%
    123.00|~18OO|______________x_o_x_o________________ ___________________|11.64%|9.75%
    122.00|~19OO|______________x_o____________________ ___________________|12.36%|8.86%
    121.00|~2OOO|______________x______________________ ___________________|13.08%|7.97%
    120.00|~21OO|__________x___x______________________ ___________________|13.8%|7.07%
    119.00|~22OO|______x___x_o_x______________________ ___________________|14.52%|6.18%
    118.00|~23OO|______x_o_x_o_x______________________ ___________________|15.24%|5.29%
    117.00|~24OO|o_____x_o_x_o_x______________________ ___________________|15.95%|4.4%
    116.00|~25OO|o_x___x_o_x_o_x______________________ ___________________|16.67%|3.5%
    115.00|~26OO|o_x_o_x_o_x_o________________________ ___________________|17.39%|2.61%
    114.00|~27OO|o_x_o_x_o____________________________ ___________________|18.11%|1.72%
    113.00|~28OO|o___o________________________________ ___________________|18.83%|0.83%
    Column|~29OO|5_3_3_6_5_6_5_114_4_3_117_10129_7_127 _4_8_8_3_5_5_3_4_3_|

    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

  4. #4


    Although the single currency rebounded strongly from 126.95 to 134.54, the sharp retreat from there to 128.78 suggests further choppy consolidation would take place and as long as 128.78 holds, mild upside bias is seen for another bounce to 132.34 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 134.54 to 128.78) but break of 134.54 resistance is needed to add credence to our recent preferred count that the wave 2 from 139.26 was a triple threes. This abc-x-abc-x-abc is labeled as: first set of a-b-c ended at 127.00, then x wave at 138.72, followed by second set of a-b-c at 129.02, then another x wave at 138.49 with the third set of a-b-c marked as: a-131.01, b-135.75 and the c leg as well as entire wave 2 ended at 126.95.
    Our preferred count remains that the upmove from 112.08 is wave 1 of C has ended at 139.26 with minor wave iii ended at 137.42, followed by triangle wave iv at 126.98, then the move from there to 127.00 is wave 2 with the latest break-down indicated above and consolidation with upside bias remains for another test of 134.54 and possibly to 135.00. Looking ahead, only breach of 135.76-136.00 resistance area would add credence to this count and signal wave 2 has indeed ended at 126.95, then headway to 137.00 and later test of resistance at 138.49 would follow.[actionforex]

    "P&F EURJPY240 Box Size 160X4 or(4.68%) HI/LO
    Data 161.65 - 112.072 ~ 16 Month ~ 470.33 Day
    Database 2000 records 130.378 (Last Close)
    2008-08-28 12~00
    2009-12-11 20~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    161.60|~16O||____________________________|0.03%|44 .19%
    160.00|~32O||o___________________________|1.02%|42 .77%
    158.40|~48O||o___________________________|2.01%|41 .34%
    156.80|~64O||oX__________________________|3%|39.91 %
    155.20|~8OO||oXo_________________________|3.99%|38 .48%
    153.60|~96O||oXo_________________________|4.98%|37 .05%
    152.00|~112O|oXo_________________________|5.97%|35 .63%
    150.40|~128O|oXo_________________________|6.96%|34 .2%
    148.80|~144O|oXo_________________________|7.95%|32 .77%
    147.20|~16OO|o_o_________________________|8.94%|31 .34%
    145.60|~176O|__o_________________________|9.93%|29 .92%
    144.00|~192O|__o_________________________|10.92%|2 8.49%
    142.40|~2O8O|__o_________________________|11.91%|2 7.06%
    140.80|~224O|__oX________________________|12.9%|25 .63%
    139.20|~24OO|==oXo================X======|13.89%|2 4.21%
    137.60|~256O|__oXo________________XoX_X__|14.88%|2 2.78%
    136.00|~272O|__oXo____________X___XoXoXo_|15.87%|2 1.35%
    134.40|~288O|__oXo__________X_XoX_XoXoXoX|16.86%|1 9.92%
    132.80|~3O4O|__o_o__________XoXoXoXoXoXoX|17.85%|1 8.5%
    131.20|~32OO|____o__________XoXoXoXoXoXoX|18.84%|1 7.07%
    129.60|~336O|____oX_X_____X_XoXoXoXoXo_oX|19.83%|1 5.64%
    128.00|~352O|====oXoXo====XoXoXoXo=o===o=|20.82%|1 4.21%
    126.40|~368O|____oXoXo____XoXo_oX________|21.81%|1 2.78%
    124.80|~384O|____oXoXoX_X_XoX__o_________|22.8%|11 .36%
    123.20|~4OOO|____oXo_oXoXoXoX____________|23.79%|9 .93%
    121.60|~416O|____oX__oXoXoXoX____________|24.78%|8 .5%
    120.00|~432O|____oX__oXoXoXoX____________|25.77%|7 .07%
    118.40|~448O|____oX__o_oXoXoX____________|26.76%|5 .65%
    116.80|~464O|____oX____o_o_oX____________|27.75%|4 .22%
    115.20|~48OO|____o_________oX____________|28.73%|2 .79%
    113.60|~496O|______________o_____________|29.72%|1 .36%

    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

  5. #5


    New trading strategy

    Bought at 129.20, Target: 131.00, Stop: 128.65

    Despite intra-day fall to 128.73, as the move from 134.37 is still viewed as retracement of the rise from 127.32, suggesting downside would be limited and bring another rebound later. Above 131.00 would signal low has possibly been formed but break of 131.52 (previous support turned resistance) is needed to confirm low has been formed, then stronger rebound to 132.40/50 and later towards 133.65.[Written by actionforex]

    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

  6. #6


    EURJPY Outlook
    As you can see in charts below, the lower line of the bullish channel did a good job preventing further bearish pressure and keep the bullish scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term as we haven't see significant bullish momentum so far. Immediate resistance at 125.65. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 126.50 region. Initial support at 124.66 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel once again.

    "P&F EURJPY1440 Box Size200X3 or(4.25%) HI/LO
    Data 169.97 - 112.16 ~ 37 Month ~ 1152 Day
    Database 825 records 124.7 (Last Close)
    2007-03-05 00~00
    2010-04-30 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

  7. #7


    Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy Stop at 111.60; Target: 115.20 ; Stop: 110.40.
    As the single currency has rallied last Friday on risk appetite after Friday’s release of stronger-than-expected U.S. data, adding credence to our view that wave 5 has ended at 108.06 earlier and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline to 113.40/50 and later towards 114.16, which is likely to hold on first testing.

    "P&F EURJPY10080 Box Size30X4 or(8.66%) HI/LO
    Data 188.22 - 88.87 ~ 241 Month ~ 7343 Day
    Database 1050 records 112.468 (Last Close)
    1990-05-06 00~00
    2010-06-13 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

  8. #8


    Very risky trading idea : EUR/JPY - Buy at 109.20-80; Target: 114.00-60 ; Stop: 108.60.
    See =>>> Svos Eurjpy D1 this forum.
    BJF Trading Group|FOREX MetaTrader Expert Advisors

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