Thread: Gold, Oil & US Dollar Relationship.

A significant breakdown in the US Dollar will come AFTER a major breakout in Gold. Gold has been consolidating for months, even as the dollar has trended down. The recent bottom in the greenback confirms that Gold is still in a consolidation phase. In March we asserted that Gold wouldn't break 1000 because money would pour into stocks and commodities, thereby diverting Gold's strength.
Gold's relative strength has been poor due to the ensuing recoveries in stocks, commodities and foreign currencies. In recent weeks we noted this to subscribers as well as the fact that dollar sentiment was too bearish. Hence, we didn't see a major breakout in gold or a sustained breakdown in the dollar.
Where will demand come from (to push Gold to breakout) if Gold is underperforming currencies, commodities and stocks? In other words, money is favoring the other asset classes. This is why relative strength matters. And it also matters because it shows the 'real' price of Gold (something that Bob Hoye talks about). If Gold is rising against foreign currencies, oil and commodities it means stronger leverage for the Gold companies. We can compare and contrast all of these things with charts. Technical analysis is very effective if you know how to use it.[oilngold]

"P&F GOLD15 Box Size2 75X3 or(0.8%) HI/LO
Data 1070.58 - 984.99 ~ 1 Month ~ 29.79 Day
Database 2064 records 1050.67 (Last Close)
2009-09-15 18~45
2009-10-15 13~45 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

1072.50|~275||____________________________________ ____________________|-0.18%|8.88%
1069.75|~55O||____________________________________ ________________x___|0.08%|8.61%
1067.00|~825||____________________________________ ____________x___x_o_|0.33%|8.33%
1064.25|~11OO|____________________________________ ____________x_o_x_o_|0.59%|8.05%
1061.50|~1375|____________________________________ ____________x_o_x_o_|0.85%|7.77%
1058.75|~165O|____________________________________ ________x___x_o_x_o_|1.11%|7.49%
1056.00|~1925|____________________________________ ____x___x_o_x_o___o_|1.36%|7.21%
1053.25|~22OO|____________________________________ ____x_o_x_o_x_____o_|1.62%|6.93%
1050.50|~2475|____________________________________ ____x_o_x_o_x_____o_|1.88%|6.65%
1047.75|~275O|____________________________________ x___x_o_x_o_x_______|2.13%|6.37%
1045.00|~3O25|____________________________________ x_o_x_o___o_________|2.39%|6.09%
1042.25|~33OO|____________________________________ x_o_x_______________|2.65%|5.81%
1039.50|~3575|____________________________________ x_o_________________|2.9%|5.53%
1036.75|~385O|____________________________________ x___________________|3.16%|5.25%
1034.00|~4125|____________________________________ x___________________|3.42%|4.98%
1031.25|~44OO|____________________________________ x___________________|3.67%|4.7%
1028.50|~4675|____________________________________ x___________________|3.93%|4.42%
1025.75|~495O|____________________________________ x___________________|4.19%|4.14%
1023.00|~5225|x___________________________________ x___________________|4.44%|3.86%
1020.25|~55OO|x_o_________________________________ x___________________|4.7%|3.58%
1017.50|~5775|x_o_x___x___x___x___________________ x___________________|4.96%|3.3%
1014.75|~6O5O|x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________________ x___________________|5.21%|3.02%
1012.00|~6325|x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________________ x___________________|5.47%|2.74%
1009.25|~66OO|x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________x___ x___________________|5.73%|2.46%
1006.50|~6875|x_____o_x_o___o___o_____________x_o_ x___________________|5.99%|2.18%
1003.75|~715O|______o_x_________o_________x___x_o_ x___________________|6.24%|1.9%
1001.00|~7425|______o_x_________o_________x_o_x_o_ x___________________|6.5%|1.63%
998.25|~77OO||______o___________o_________x_o_x_o_ x___________________|6.76%|1.35%
995.50|~7975||__________________o_x___x___x_o___o_ x___________________|7.01%|1.07%
992.75|~825O||__________________o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_ x___________________|7.27%|0.79%
990.00|~8525||__________________o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_ x___________________|7.53%|0.51%
987.25|~88OO||__________________o___o___o_______o_ ____________________|7.78%|0.23%
984.50|~9O75||____________________________________ ____________________|8.04%|-0.05%
Column|~935O||7_5_3_7_7_4_4_4_4_113_3_3_3_6_3_5_8_ 223_6_4_5_5_8_4_5_7_|
Count

Oil prices closed marginally lower on Monday, as the promise of milder weather in the United States took some steam out of the market. Weather forecasters said the worst of the cold spell, which swept across the United States and helped support energy prices over the last two weeks, was nearly over. Crude was earlier supported by data showing China's crude oil imports surged by nearly 25 percent in December. The world's second largest energy consumer imported over 20 million tonnes of crude for the first time ever in December, up almost a quarter from November, according to Customs data published on Sunday. Crude oil is trading at $82.15 as of 21:35pm, GMT, with a bearish trend. Crude's Pool-Position is 42% Long, meaning that most Finotec clients are selling the commodity.[oilngold]

"P&F O I L (brent) Box Size 250X3 or(9.62%) CLOSE
Data 116.18 - 39.73 ~ 17 Month ~ 502 Day
Database 500 records 78.99 (Last Close)
2008-08-28 00~00
2010-01-12 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

115.0|~25O||______________________________________ |1.02%|189.45%
112.5|~5OO||__o___________________________________ |3.17%|183.16%
110.0|~75O||__o___________________________________ |5.32%|176.87%
107.5|~1OOO|__o___________________________________ |7.47%|170.58%
105.0|~125O|__o_x_________________________________ |9.62%|164.28%
102.5|~15OO|__o_x_o_______________________________ |11.77%|157.99%
100.0|~175O|__o_x_o_______________________________ |13.93%|151.7%
97.50|~2OOO|__o_x_o_______________________________ |16.08%|145.41%
95.00|~225O|__o_x_o_______________________________ |18.23%|139.11%
92.50|~25OO|__o_x_o_______________________________ |20.38%|132.82%
90.00|~275O|__o___o_______________________________ |22.53%|126.53%
87.50|~3OOO|______o_______________________________ |24.69%|120.24%
85.00|~325O|______o_______________________________ |26.84%|113.94%
82.50|~35OO|______o_____________________________x_ |28.99%|107.65%
80.00|~375O|______o_________________________x___x_ |31.14%|101.36%
77.50|~4OOO|______o_________________________x_o_x_ |33.29%|95.07%
75.00|~425O|______o_____________________x___x_o_x_ |35.44%|88.77%
72.50|~45OO|______o_________________x___x_o_x_o___ |37.6%|82.48%
70.00|~475O|______o_________________x_o_x_o_x_____ |39.75%|76.19%
67.50|~5OOO|______o_________________x_o_x_o_x_____ |41.9%|69.9%
65.00|~525O|______o_________________x_o_x_o_______ |44.05%|63.6%
62.50|~55OO|______o_________________x_o_x_________ |46.2%|57.31%
60.00|~575O|______o_x_______________x_o___________ |48.36%|51.02%
57.50|~6OOO|______o_x_o_____________x_____________ |50.51%|44.73%
55.00|~625O|______o_x_o_____x___x___x_____________ |52.66%|38.43%
52.50|~65OO|______o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_____________ |54.81%|32.14%
50.00|~675O|______o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____________ |56.96%|25.85%
47.50|~7OOO|__________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______________ |59.12%|19.56%
45.00|~725O|__________o___o_x_o_x_________________ |61.27%|13.26%
42.50|~75OO|______________o_x_o_x_________________ |63.42%|6.97%
40.00|~775O|______________o___o_x_________________ |65.57%|0.68%
37.50|~8OOO|__________________o___________________ |67.72%|-5.61%
Column||||||0_106_224_6_3_5_6_7_7_3_105_6_4_6_3_4_ |
Count



BJF-Trading-Group-OIL_brent3Month0113.xls

As discussed before, Gold's choppy recovery from 1044.5 should have completed at 1131.5 already after failing to sustain above 1126.4 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment for 1044.5 low and below to extend the whole correction from 1227.5. On the upside, above 1108.8 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. Also, note that break of 1131.5 resistance now should confirm that fall from 1227.5 has completed with three waves down to 1044.5 and should bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains broadly unchanged. Price actions from 1227.5 are treated as corrections to rise from 931.3 only. Hence, even in case of another fall, downside is expected to be contained by 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level and bring long term up trend resumption. Decisive break of 1163 resistance will indicate that such correction has already completed and the long term up trend is set to resume for another high above 1227.5.[Written by Oil N' Gold]

"P&F GOLD1440 Box Size30X2 or(7.98%) CLOSE
Data 1215.1 - 288.39 ~ 96 Month ~ 2943 Day
Database 2000 records 1094.73 (Last Close)
2002-02-04 00~00
2010-02-25 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1200.00|~3OOO|____________________________________ X____|1.24%|316.1%
1170.00|~6OOO|____________________________________ Xo___|3.71%|305.7%
1140.00|~9OOO|____________________________________ XoX__|6.18%|295.3%
1110.00|~12OO|==================================== XoXoX|8.65%|284.9%
1080.00|~15OO|____________________________________ Xo_oX|11.12%|274.49%
1050.00|~18OO|==================================== X==o=|13.59%|264.09%
1020.0|~21OOO|____________________________________ X____|16.06%|253.69%
990.00|~24OOO|________________X_____________X_____ X____|18.53%|243.29%
960.00|~27OOO|________________Xo__X_________Xo__X_ X____|20.99%|232.88%
930.00|~3OOOO|________________XoX_Xo________XoX_Xo X____|23.46%|222.48%
900.00|~33OOO|______________X_XoXoXoX_X_____XoXoXo _____|25.93%|212.08%
870.00|~36OOO|______________XoXoXoXoXoXo__X_Xo_oX_ _____|28.4%|201.67%
840.00|~39OOO|______________Xo_o_o_oXoXo__XoX__o__ _____|30.87%|191.27%
810.00|~42OOO|______________X______oXo_oX_Xo______ _____|33.34%|180.87%
780.00|~45OOO|______________X______oX__oXoX_______ _____|35.81%|170.47%
750.00|~48OOO|______________X______oX__oXo________ _____|38.28%|160.06%
720.00|~51OOO|______________X______o___oX_________ _____|40.75%|149.66%
690.00|~54OOO|________X___X_X__________o__________ _____|43.21%|139.26%
660.00|~57OOO|________XoX_XoX_____________________ _____|45.68%|128.86%
630.00|~6OOOO|________XoXoXo______________________ _____|48.15%|118.45%
600.00|~63OOO|________XoXoX_______________________ _____|50.62%|108.05%
570.00|~66OOO|______X_XoXo________________________ _____|53.09%|97.65%
540.00|~69OOO|______XoXo__________________________ _____|55.56%|87.25%
510.00|~72OOO|______Xo____________________________ _____|58.03%|76.84%
480.00|~75OOO|______X_____________________________ _____|60.5%|66.44%
450.00|~78OOO|____X_X_____________________________ _____|62.97%|56.04%
420.00|~81OOO|__X_XoX_____________________________ _____|65.43%|45.64%
390.00|~84OOO|__XoXo______________________________ _____|67.9%|35.23%
360.00|~87OOO|X_Xo________________________________ _____|70.37%|24.83%
330.00|~9OOOO|XoX_________________________________ _____|72.84%|14.43%
300.00|~93OOO|Xo__________________________________ _____|75.31%|4.03%
270.00|~96OOO|____________________________________ _____|77.78%|-6.38%
Column||||||||324232626543429255334863374242642342 14232|
Count|||||||||____________________________________ O____|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

The dollar index moved into long mode in early December and found buying support and momentum as equity markets lost direction.
Also in effective terms the dollar has lost momentum, as witnessed by the correction lower in the DXY index from its mid-February 81.342 high. As a result, speculative long USD positions have been trimmed.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size 70X4 or(3.42%) CLOSE
Data 92.33 - 71.36 ~ 75 Month ~ 2285 Day
Database 1614 records 80.56 (Last Close)
2003-11-17 00~00
2010-02-18 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

91.70|~7O|||____X_______X______________________|0. 68%|28.5%
91.00|~14O||X___Xo______Xo_____________________|1. 44%|27.52%
90.30|~21O||Xo__Xo____X_XoX____________________|2. 2%|26.54%
89.60|~28O||_o__XoX___XoXoXo___________________|2. 96%|25.56%
88.90|~35O||_o__XoXo__XoXoXo______________X____|3. 71%|24.58%
88.20|~42O||_o__XoXo__XoXoXo______________Xo___|4. 47%|23.6%
87.50|~49O||_oX_XoXo__XoXo_o____________X_Xo___|5. 23%|22.62%
86.80|~56O||_oXoXo_o__XoX__oX_X_______X_XoXo___|5. 99%|21.64%
86.10|~63O||_oXoX__o__Xo___oXoXo______XoXoXoX__|6. 75%|20.66%
85.40|~7OO||_oXoX__o__X____oXoXo______XoXoXoXo_|7. 51%|19.67%
84.70|~77O||_o_o___oX_X____oXoXoX_____XoXoXoXo_|8. 26%|18.69%
84.00|~84O||_______oXoX____oXo_oXo____Xo_oXoXo_|9. 02%|17.71%
83.30|~91O||_______oXoX____o___oXo____X__oXoXo_|9. 78%|16.73%
82.60|~98O||_______oXoX________oXo____X__oXo_o_|10 .54%|15.75%
81.90|~1O5O|_______oXoX________o_o____X__oX__o_|11 .3%|14.77%
81.20|~112O|_______oXo___________o____X__oX__o_|12 .05%|13.79%
80.50|~119O|=======o=============o====X==oX==oX|12 .81%|12.81%
79.80|~126O|_____________________o__X_X__oX__oX|13 .57%|11.83%
79.10|~133O|_____________________o__XoX__oX__oX|14 .33%|10.85%
78.40|~14OO|_____________________o__XoX__o___oX|15 .09%|9.87%
77.70|~147O|_____________________oX_XoX______oX|15 .85%|8.88%
77.00|~154O|_____________________oXoXoX______oX|16 .6%|7.9%
76.30|~161O|_____________________oXoXoX______oX|17 .36%|6.92%
75.60|~168O|_____________________oXoXo_______oX|18 .12%|5.94%
74.90|~175O|_____________________oXoX________oX|18 .88%|4.96%
74.20|~182O|_____________________o_oX________o_|19 .64%|3.98%
73.50|~189O|_______________________oX__________|20 .39%|3%
72.80|~196O|_______________________oX__________|21 .15%|2.02%
72.10|~2O3O|_______________________oX__________|21 .91%|1.04%
71.40|~21OO|_______________________oX__________|22 .67%|0.06%
70.70|~217O|_______________________o___________|23 .43%|-0.92%
Column||||||29441741651686415447415116145119519|
Count|||||||____O__3__3____O_____5_O3_6__35__7_|



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

While upside moment is diminishing in crude oil, further rise is still in favor with 80.16 minor support index. Current rally from 69.50 could extend further to retest 83.95 high. Nevertheless, break of 80.16 will indicate that a short term top is already in place and deeper pull back should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.03 at 77.86 and below.[Written by Oil N' Gold]

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 69.50 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.

"P&F O I L (brent) Box Size40X3 or(13.77%) CLOSE
Data 147.53 - 26.7 ~ 79 Month ~ 2412 Day
Database 1650 records 79.69 (Last Close)
2003-08-04 00~00
2010-03-12 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

148.0|~4OO||______________________________________ __________|-0.32%|454.31%
144.0|~8OO||______________________x_______________ __________|2.39%|439.33%
140.0|~12OO|______________________x_o_____________ __________|5.1%|424.34%
136.0|~16OO|______________________x_o_____________ __________|7.82%|409.36%
132.0|~2OOO|__________________x___x_o_____________ __________|10.53%|394.38%
128.0|~24OO|__________________x_o_x_o_____________ __________|13.24%|379.4%
124.0|~28OO|__________________x_o_x_o_____________ __________|15.95%|364.42%
120.0|~32OO|__________________x_o___o_____________ __________|18.66%|349.44%
116.0|~36OO|__________________x_____o_____________ __________|21.37%|334.46%
112.0|~4OOO|__________________x_____o_____________ __________|24.08%|319.48%
108.0|~44OO|__________________x_____o_____________ __________|26.79%|304.49%
104.0|~48OO|__________________x_____o_x___________ __________|29.51%|289.51%
100.0|~52OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_________ __________|32.22%|274.53%
96.00|~56OO|______________x___x_____o_x_o_________ __________|34.93%|259.55%
92.00|~6OOO|______________x_o_x_____o_x_o_________ __________|37.64%|244.57%
88.00|~64OO|______________x_o_x_____o___o_________ __________|40.35%|229.59%
84.00|~68OO|______________x_o___________o_________ __________|43.06%|214.61%
80.00|~72OO|______________x_____________o_________ ____x___x_|45.77%|199.63%
76.00|~76OO|__________x___x_____________o_________ ____x_o_x_|48.49%|184.64%
72.00|~8OOO|__________x_o_x_____________o_________ x___x_o_x_|51.2%|169.66%
68.00|~84OO|__________x_o_x_____________o_________ x_o_x_o___|53.91%|154.68%
64.00|~88OO|______x___x_o_x_____________o_________ x_o_x_____|56.62%|139.7%
60.00|~92OO|______x_o_x_o_x_____________o_x_______ x_o_______|59.33%|124.72%
56.00|~96OO|______x_o_x_o_x_____________o_x_o_____ x_________|62.04%|109.74%
52.00|~1OOO|______x_o___o_x_____________o_x_o_x___ x_________|64.75%|94.76%
48.00|~1O4O|__x___x_____o_______________o___o_x_o_ x_________|67.46%|79.78%
44.00|~1O8O|__x_o_x_________________________o_x_o_ x_________|70.18%|64.79%
40.00|~112O|__x_o_x_________________________o___o_ x_________|72.89%|49.81%
36.00|~116O|__x_o_______________________________o_ __________|75.6%|34.83%
32.00|~12OO|__x___________________________________ __________|78.31%|19.85%
28.00|~124O|__x___________________________________ __________|81.02%|4.87%
24.00|~128O|o_____________________________________ __________|83.73%|-10.11%
Column||||||1_6_3_7_3_6_7_123_123_6_144_143_5_3_4_ 9_3_5_3_3_|
Count




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

Dollar index's strong break of 81.34 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 74.19 has resumed and should now be targeting 61.8% projection of 76.60 to 81.34 from 79.51 at 82.43 next. Meanwhile, in case of retreat, dollar index should be contained by 80.55 support and bring rally resumption.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 250X3 or(4.17%) CLOSE
Data 108.69 - 71.36 ~ 93 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 81.85 (Last Close)
2002-06-21 00~00
2010-03-25 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

108.75|~125|______________________________|-0.06%|52.4%
107.50|~25O|_X_X__________________________|1.09%|5 0.64%
106.25|~375|oXoXo_________________________|2.24%|4 8.89%
105.00|~5OO|o_oXo_________________________|3.39%|4 7.14%
103.75|~625|__o_o_________________________|4.55%|4 5.39%
102.50|~75O|____o_________________________|5.7%|43 .64%
101.25|~875|____oX________________________|6.85%|4 1.89%
100.0|~1OOO|____oXo_______________________|8%|40.1 3%
98.75|~1125|____oXoX______________________|9.15%|3 8.38%
97.50|~125O|____o_oXo_____________________|10.3%|3 6.63%
96.25|~1375|______oXo_____________________|11.45%| 34.88%
95.00|~15OO|______oXo_____________________|12.6%|3 3.13%
93.75|~1625|______oXo_____________________|13.75%| 31.38%
92.50|~175O|______oXo_____________________|14.9%|2 9.62%
91.25|~1875|______o_oX_____X______________|16.05%| 27.87%
90.00|~2OOO|________oXo__X_Xo_____________|17.2%|2 6.12%
88.75|~2125|========oXo==XoXo========X====|18.35%| 24.37%
87.50|~225O|________oXo__XoXo______X_Xo___|19.5%|2 2.62%
86.25|~2375|________oXo__Xo_o______XoXoX__|20.65%| 20.87%
85.00|~25OO|________oXoX_X__oX_____XoXoXo_|21.8%|1 9.11%
83.75|~2625|________o_oXoX__oXo____XoXoXo_|22.95%| 17.36%
82.50|~275O|__________oXoX__oXo____XoXo_o_|24.1%|1 5.61%
81.25|~2875|==========oXo===o=o====XoX==oX|25.25%| 13.86%
80.00|~3OOO|__________o_______o__X_XoX__oX|26.4%|1 2.11%
78.75|~3125|__________________o__XoXo___oX|27.55%| 10.36%
77.50|~325O|__________________oX_XoX____oX|28.7%|8 .6%
76.25|~3375|__________________oXoXoX____oX|29.85%| 6.85%
75.00|~35OO|__________________oXoXo_____oX|31%|5.1 %
73.75|~3625|==================o=oX======o=|32.15%| 3.35%
72.50|~375O|____________________oX________|33.3%|1 .6%
71.25|~3875|____________________o_________|34.45%|-0.15%
Column||||||223383861694373483935741785316|
Count|||||||________2______________O____O_|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

Gold is still bounded in choppy sideway trading below 1170.7 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1137.9 and bring rally resumption. Break of 1170.7 will target 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 level next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Hence upside will likely be limited by 1227.5 high and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will indicate that the third leg of consolidations has started and should then target 1044.5 again.

"P&F GOLD1440 Box Size 30X2 or(7.89%) HI/LO
Data 1226.37 - 295.35 ~ 97 Month ~ 2943 Day
Database 2000 records 1137.11 (Last Close)
2002-03-26 00~00
2010-04-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

Trade Idea: GOLD - Sell at 1212/1218 Target: 1182/1176 ; Stop: 1236
==================================================
Gold's pull back from 1249.7 has possibly completed at 1166 already. Intraday bias remains
mildly on the upside for 1249.7 resistance first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for
1300 psychological level next. However, note that firm break of 1170.7 will argue that whole
rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for 1124.3 support instead.

"P&F GOLD1 Box Size $0.5X4 or(0.17%) CLOSE
Data 1218.21 - 1205.91 ~ 0 Month ~ 1.63 Day
Database 2198 records 1212.59 (Last Close)
2010-05-26 17~03
2010-05-28 08~09 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US Dollar Index is retracing to test short-term support at 85 after breaking out of its
trend channel. Failure would signal the end of the rally and a test of the lower trend channel.
Upward breakout remains as likely, however, and would offer a short-term target of 90.00

"P&F _DXY1440 Box Size 120X3 or(4%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 94 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 86.49 (Last Close)
2002-08-30 00~00
2010-06-03 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

109.2|~12O||__x_+_________________________________ __________|0.04%|54.46%
108.0|~24O||__x_o_+_______________________________ __________|1.14%|52.76%
106.8|~36O||__x_o___+_____________________________ __________|2.23%|51.06%
105.6|~48O||o___o_____+___________________________ __________|3.33%|49.36%
104.4|~6OO||o___o_______+_________________________ __________|4.43%|47.67%
103.2|~72O||____o_________+_______________________ __________|5.53%|45.97%
102.0|~84O||____o_x_________+_____________________ __________|6.63%|44.27%
100.8|~96O||____o_x_o_________+___________________ __________|7.73%|42.57%
99.60|~1O8O|____o_x_o___________+_________________ __________|8.82%|40.88%
98.40|~12OO|____o___o_x___________+_______________ __________|9.92%|39.18%
97.20|~132O|________o_x_o___________+_____________ __________|11.02%|37.48%
96.00|~144O|________o_x_o_____________+___________ __________|12.12%|35.79%
94.80|~156O|________o_x_o_______________+_________ __________|13.22%|34.09%
93.60|~168O|________o_x_o_________________+_______ __________|14.32%|32.39%
92.40|~18OO|________o___o_____________x_____+_____ __________|15.42%|30.69%
91.20|~192O|____________o_x___________x_o_____+___ __________|16.51%|29%
90.00|~2O4O|____________o_x_o_____x___x_o_______+_ __________|17.61%|27.3%
88.80|~216O|____________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_________ x_________|18.71%|25.6%
87.60|~228O|____________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x___x___ x_o_____+_|19.81%|23.9%
86.40|~24OO|____________o_x_o_____x_o___o_x_o_x_o_ x_o_x___x_|20.91%|22.21%
85.20|~252O|____________o___o_x___x___+_o_x_o_x_o_ x_o_x_o_x_|22.01%|20.51%
84.00|~264O|________________o_x_o_x_+___o_x_o___o_ x_o_x_o_x_|23.11%|18.81%
82.80|~276O|________________o_x_o_x_____o_x_____o_ x_o___o_x_|24.2%|17.11%
81.60|~288O|________________o_x_o_______o_x_____o_ x_____o_x_|25.3%|15.42%
80.40|~3OOO|________________o_+_________o_x_____o_ x_____o_x_|26.4%|13.72%
79.20|~312O|________________+___________o_x_____o_ x_____o_x_|27.5%|12.02%
78.00|~324O|____________________________o_x_____o_ ____+_o_x_|28.6%|10.33%
76.80|~336O|____________________________o_x_______ __+___o_x_|29.7%|8.63%
75.60|~348O|____________________________o_x_______ +_____o_x_|30.79%|6.93%
74.40|~36OO|____________________________o_x_____+_ ______o_+_|31.89%|5.23%
73.20|~372O|____________________________o_x___+___ ______+___|32.99%|3.54%
72.00|~384O|____________________________o_x_+_____ __________|34.09%|1.84%
70.80|~396O|____________________________o_+_______ __________|35.19%|0.14%
69.60|~4O8O|____________________________+_________ __________|36.29%|-1.56%
Column||||||2_3_9_3_8_5_1_5_9_4_3_7_3_5_1_1_3_3_8_ 9_5_3_1_1_|
Count|||||||____________1_______________8_4_______ ______O_O_|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is undergoing a correction. Breakout below the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening — as would a Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line. Recovery above the descending trendline, however, would suggest another test of 89.[incrediblecharts.com]
But I think so.See figure.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size1 50X3 or(4.71%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 210 Month ~ 6377 Day
Database 912 records 84.34 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-07-11 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

121.50|~15O|____________________________________+_ __________________________|-0.82%|71.85%
120.00|~3OO|________________________________x___x_ +_________________________|0.42%|69.73%
118.50|~45O|____________________________x___x_o_x_ o_+_______________________|1.67%|67.61%
117.00|~6OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_ o___+_____________________|2.91%|65.49%
115.50|~75O|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_ o_____+___________________|4.16%|63.37%
114.00|~9OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_ o_______+_________________|5.4%|61.24%
112.5|~1O5O|____________________________x_o_x_o___ o_________+_______________|6.65%|59.12%
111.0|~12OO|________________________x___x_o_x_____ o___________+_____________|7.89%|57%
109.5|~135O|________________________x_o_x_o_______ o_____________+___________|9.14%|54.88%
108.0|~15OO|________________________x_o_x_________ o_______________+_________|10.38%|52.76%
106.5|~165O|________________________x_o___________ o_________________+_______|11.63%|50.64%
105.0|~18OO|________________________x_____________ o___________________+_____|12.87%|48.51%
103.5|~195O|____________________x___x_____________ o_____________________+___|14.12%|46.39%
102.0|~21OO|________________x___x_o_x_____________ o_______________________+_|15.36%|44.27%
100.5|~225O|____________x___x_o_x_o_x_____________ o_________________________|16.6%|42.15%
99.00|~24OO|____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________+_ o_x_______________________|17.85%|40.03%
97.50|~255O|____________x_o_x_o_x_o___________+___ o_x_o_____________________|19.09%|37.91%
96.00|~27OO|____x_______x_o___o_x___________+_____ o_x_o_____________________|20.34%|35.79%
94.50|~285O|x___x_o_____x_____o_x_________+_______ o_x_o_____________________|21.58%|33.66%
93.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_____x_____o_________+_________ o___o_____________________|22.83%|31.54%
91.50|~315O|__o_x_o_____x_____________+___________ ____o_x___x_______________|24.07%|29.42%
90.00|~33OO|__o_x_o_x___x___________+_____________ ____o_x_o_x_o_____________|25.32%|27.3%
88.50|~345O|__o___o_x_o_x_________+_______________ ____o_x_o_x_o_____x___x___|26.56%|25.18%
87.00|~36OO|______o_x_o_x_______+_________________ ____o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_|27.81%|23.06%
85.50|~375O|______o___o_x_____+___________________ ____o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.05%|20.93%
84.00|~39OO|__________o_x___+_____________________ ________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.50|~4O5O|__________o_x_+_______________________ ________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|31.54%|16.69%
81.00|~42OO|__________o_+_________________________ ________o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|32.79%|14.57%
79.50|~435O|__________+___________________________ ____________o_x_o_x_o_x___|34.03%|12.45%
78.00|~45OO|______________________________________ ____________o_x_o___o_x___|35.28%|10.33%
76.50|~465O|______________________________________ ____________o_x_____o_x_+_|36.52%|8.2%
75.00|~48OO|______________________________________ ____________o_x_____o_+___|37.76%|6.08%
73.50|~495O|______________________________________ ____________o_x_____+_____|39.01%|3.96%
72.00|~51OO|______________________________________ ____________o_____________|40.25%|1.84%
70.50|~525O|______________________________________ __________________________|41.5%|-0.28%
Column||||||2_4_5_7_3_6_1_3_4_6_7_4_9_3_8_6_7_5_5_ 1_4_9_4_7_7_1_1_6_7_9_9_3_|
Count|||||||____________3_________________________ 8___________3_O___________|


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.