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Thread: Currencies today by UWCFX

  1. #41
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    27 NOVEMBER 2012: EURO MINISTERS FINALLY AGREE ON GREEK DEBT

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, finally reached a deal on Monday to reduce Greece’s debt. After 12 hour of negotiations Greece’s international lenders agreed on measures to reduce Greek debt by 40 billion euro, cutting the debt ratio between debt and GDP (gross domestic product) to 124 percent by 2020. Urgently needed loans to keep the bankrupt economy afloat were simultaneously released. In a significant new pledge ministers committed themselves to lower Greece’s debt below 110 percent by 2022. This is so far the most explicit recognition that some loans have to written off from 2016 when Greece is supposed to reach a primary budget surplus.

    After two weeks of haggling, markets reacted with relief on the aid package. Stock markets in Asia continued up. The MSCI index for the south Pacific region outside Japan gained 0,6 percent, and the Euro/USD is trading at its highest level in weeks at 1.2985, marginally up from yesterday. Upon the release of the news from Greece, the euro reached 1.3010. Also the Australian dollar is trading at its highest level in two months versus dollar. USD/JPY was falling in early Asian trade, but has recovered at 82,15. Dow Jones was down and Nasdaq marginally up yesterday waiting for the outcome from Brussels.

    Oil prices are steady. New York crude (NYMEX) is USD 88 a barrel. Brent crude is 111,04. Commodity prices are up helped by news on big infrastructural programs in China. Gold keeps around 1750 after reaching 1754 on Friday. Silver is slightly up in the morning trade in Asia at 34,20.

    The agreement in Brussels has given the market a breathing spell. Investors focus is now likely to shift back to another major concern hanging over the markets, the looming US fiscal crisis. Republicans asked on Monday president Barack Obama to detail long term spending cuts to help solve the countries fiscal crisis. The Republicans are holding firm against any income tax rate increases for the wealthy that Democrats seek. If a compromise deal on the budget drags out, new focus on the “fiscal cliff” would for sure create nervousness and dampened investors risk appetite.

    With big funds winding down their positions ahead of the new year-end, many analysts see it unlikely with major changes in the currency markets. The euro which has gained two percent over the last days is not set for major new gains in the short term. Any further rise in the Euro will likely be countered by selling to cap the euro’s upside. USD/JPY has fallen considerably over the last weeks and no major development is expected before the Japanese elections in mid-December and an eventual new government’s likely monetary easing.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    28 NOVEMBER 2012: FOCUS SHIFT BACK TO “FISCAL CLIFF”

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Budget talks and the “fiscal cliff” is back in focus after leaving the euro finance ministers agreement on Greek debt cuts on the agenda in the very start of the week. The euro’s short won gains against the USD were eaten up during yesterday. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2939 after falling fifty basis points in the afternoon of yesterday. The Japanese Yen strengthens versus dollar. After USD/JPY has traded in the interval between 82.15 to 82,65, yen is this morning below 82 at 81,95. Asian shares ended a seven-day winning streak this morning. The share index for Asia-Pacific stocks, MSCI, fell 0,5 % and commodities eased as lack of progress in talks on US budget threatened to threw the US economy back in recession.

    President Barack Obama launched yesterday a public relations push for his bid to raise taxes on wealthy Americans. US lawmakers remained, however deadlocked over dramatic year-end tax increases and spending cuts known as the “fiscal cliff”. Obama met with small business leaders in the White House. They urged Obama to keep the tax cuts for the middle class to increase consumption and job creation. The US tycoon, Warren Buffet, simultaneously, called on the rich to pay more and proposed a minimum tax on 30 % on incomes between USD 1 and 10 million and 35 % on incomes above.

    Senate majority leader Harry Reid expressed last night disappointment over modest progress in the budget negotiations. The remarks had US stocks to slide. Dow Jones lost 0,69 percent and Nasdaq 0,30. Statistics could on the other hand report on record high Thanksgiving sales and the highest US-consumer optimism in 5 years. The Shanghai composite Index slid 0,7 % and the Chinese stock markets to its lowest in nearly four years extending earlier losses and closing below 2000 points for the first time since January 2009. The weak Chinese stock market along with increasing doubts over US ability to resolve the fiscal crisis have over the last weeks strengthened demand for sovereign debt. Japanese government bond futures rise to a 9 and half year high.

    Digesting the Greek debt deal comments on Twitter dismissed it as another exercise in kicking the can down the road. A degree of kicking is obvious. There is, however a critical element in the new deal which goes further than any step taken so far to get Greece back on its feet. There is an implicit understanding that Greece will undergo some form of official-sector debt restructuring with euro zone countries at some point in the future forgiving a portion of Greece’s debt. This sort of last-ditch measure is usually reserved for impoverished states in Africa and Latin America. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble came close to acknowledging such an eventuality on a later press conference.

    Oil prices are down a dollar since yesterday. Brent crude is trading at 110. Gold is also down from 1750 to 1741 breaking the good upward trend seen over the last days. Silver at USD 34 is also down.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

  3. #43
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    29 NOVEMBER 2012: BIPARTISAN STATEMENTS TURN MARKETS AROUND

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    “The fiscal cliff” seems over the last couple of days to have taken over completely as the dominant theme in the market. Statements on Tuesday from the Democratic Senate leader, Henry Reid, expressing disappointing progress towards a budget compromise with the Republicans had the markets to tumble. Yesterday it was the other way around. When president Obama expressed hope for a deficit deal by Christmas markets made a sharp U-turn. Dow Jones and Nasdaq which had started in red territory, ended 0,83 and 0,81 percent up with Hewlett Packard, Chevron, American Express and Pfizer showing the way as cracks seemed to surface in the Republican front against any tax rises. Stocks rallied when House Speaker and leading Republican, Joe Boehner, stated that a compromise was possible to avoid the “fiscal cliff”.

    Whether these remarks reflect the reality of the negotiations is another story. The “fiscal cliff” of budget cuts and tax hikes dominate the discussion and influence a world market driven by psychology. Optimistic statements are immediately given a positive spin regardless of realities. The markets are going to live with these sentiments in the coming weeks and we are most probably going to see volatility and big day-to-day changes in stocks as well as commodities and currencies. Yesterday gold was hardest hit and fell 40 dollar an ounce during the session. It has recovered and trades at present at 1722. Also oil and silver took a hard punch to normalize around USD 110 a barrels for Brent crude and 33,70 for silver.

    Euro/USD fell 70 points during one session and saw a low on 1.2875 before climbing back to 1.2955 and the same level as last Friday when the common currency was strengthened by the prospects of a debt deal on Greece in Brussels. By finalizing the deal Monday night the Euro reached 1.3010 to plunge back to yesterday’s low levels. The comments from US policy makers rekindled hopes of avoiding a crash landing on the US budget; and strengthened the Euro.

    USD/JPY has also demonstrated great volatility during the last week. It is now trading at 82,14 bouncing back from a week high on 81,68 against the dollar on Wednesday. The dollar has corrected after reaching a 7 ½ month high of 82,84 last week. The yen has been under pressure over the last couple of weeks on speculations about aggressive monetary easing in Japan after the elections in mid-December. It is expected that USD/JPY is going to continue to trade in a range between 81 and 83 till we have seen the outcome of the elections.

    Asian shares touched their highest levels in more than three weeks. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific jumped 1 percent after ending a seven-day winning streak on Wednesday. Also commodities are up on “optimism” for reaching a compromise on the US-budget. Nikkei in Japan and Australian shares were up as the Shanghai composite index as yesterday saw its lowest level since January 2009.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    30 NOVEMBER 2012: ASIAN STOCKS AND EURO TRADE STRONGER

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Telecommunications and health stocks were the winners in New York last night as Dow Jones and Nasdaq rose marginally. The Dow Jones industrial average passed the 13 000 mark and seems to end the week in positive territory. Investors were buying on sporadic dips roiled by conflicting comments from Washington about negotiations on a budget compromise to avoid the “fiscal cliff”, fear for a combination of budget cuts and tax hikes. Wall Street reversed early gains and fell after the Speaker of the House, leading Republican John Boehner, dashed hopes that lawmakers were getting closer to a deal. It picked up at greater optimism for a compromise at the end of the session. The extreme volatility in the markets is probably continuing as long with the stalemate in Congress.

    Stock markets in Europe ended in positive territory yesterday on initial compromise optimism from both President Obama and the House Speaker Wednesday night. The exchanges in Asia started the trading day on a positive note. Asian shares rose to a nine-month peak Friday morning. Japan’s industrial output rose unexpectedly 1,8 percent in October, up for the first time in four months. This along with a new announced stimulus package from the Japanese government helped Nikkei win 0,8%. Also the Shanghai and Taiwan bourses produced healthy gains. The mining giant Rio Tinto is up 3 percent upon presenting savings and restructuring measures worth USD 5 billion.

    Japanese yen is losing on the stimulus plans after gaining against the dollar earlier in the week. USD/JPY is trading at 82,45 well inside the newly established 81 – 83 corridor. Euro/USD is again stronger at 1.2999 up 50 points from yesterday’s start. The euro reached 1.3015 on Thursday, the highest level seen since 31st October. The euro is helped by the bail-out package for Greece. It is expected that a skeptical German parliament will approve the support for Greece in a vote today. This will probably give the euro a new temporary boost.

    The US government said yesterday that third-quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 2,7 percent annual rate, the fastest pace since late 2011. Export growth help offset weakest consumer spending and the first drop in business investment in more than a year. Brent crude is trading at USD 110, 49 a barrel marginally up from Thursday. US crude futures, NYMEX, is falling 0,4 percent. Increased tensions and escalating violence in Syria and Egypt are stoking permanent fear of oil supply disruptions. Gold has gained back 20 dollars from yesterday’s steep fall and trades at 1727. Silver is at USD 34,20 an ounce, the same level as seen at the peak earlier in the week.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    03 DECEMBER 2012: EURO AND ASIA RISE ON CHINESE MANUFACTURING

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Euro/USD rose to 1.3048 and Asian stocks jumped to a nine-month high on further signs of a stabilizing Chinese economy boosted investor’s risk appetite. China’s vast manufacturing sector quickened in November for the first time in 13 months. HSBC bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Survey, PMI, rose to 50,5. A further evidence that the Chinese economy is picking up after quarters of slowing growth. China’s official PMI was even higher at 50,6. An official PMI for the non-manufacturing sector reached 55,6 led by construction services.

    The upbeat Chinese manufacturing data helped the Euro reach a six-week high against the dollar. The Euro was also strengthened by Angela Merkel’s careful remarks that Germany, in a medium, longer term perspective, might consider to write off Greek’s debt if the country succeeds in getting its house in order.

    The rhetoric on the “fiscal cliff” increased during the weekend when Democrats and Republicans went on the air to trade accusations on whom are mostly to blame for the budget stalemate. This also helped the euro. In spite that there still seem to be a huge distance to cross before any budget deal sight is in sight, markets nevertheless seem to have discounted a compromise. All asset classes posted gains in November with higher appetite for securities. Security markets except the Shanghai composite rose.

    The Japanese Nikkei continues to rise on a lower yen and expectations for monetary easing after the parliamentarian elections in mid-December. The dollar steadied at 82,40 yen not far from the 82,84 yen touched on November 22. Speculators have over the last weeks boosted a short yen position which was at its highest since May 2007.

    US, NYMEX crude and Brent futures are inching up at 89,16 and 111,57 respectively. Copper gained 0,3 percent to USD 8018 a metric ton. Gold is slightly up to 1719 on a weaker dollar. The DXY dollar index against a basket of major currencies are down 0,2 percent.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

  6. #46
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    04 DECEMBER 2012: WALL STREET FALLS ON WEAK DATA

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Manufacturing activity in the United States surprisingly contracted in November, dropping to its lowest level in three years. The fiscal cliff remains, however, investors’ primary focus. The political haggling over how to deal with large automatic spending cuts and tax hikes scheduled to kick in at the beginning of the new year, threatens to threw the US economy into new recession. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell back after three straight winning days for the US indexes. The S&P index which composes an average of US stocks, are in spite of yesterday’s weakness still up 12, 1 percent in 2012, making stocks one of the assets classes winners.

    Asian bourses and the Japanese Nikkei edged down in early Tuesday trading when the weak US data triggered profit-taking on exporters. The US economy is key to the fortunes of Japanese exporters which rely heavily on consumption in the world biggest economy. Asian markets got a boost over the weekend when the Chinese economy demonstrated healthy manufacturing data and strong signals for a rebound. Yesterday’s gains were eaten by a new cold shower from the US. The Japanese yen which recently has fallen against the USD, fluctuated heavily yesterday. After USD/JPY had traded at its lowest levels in weeks, JPY recovered strongly on the weak US manufacturing data. It is now trading at 82,10.

    The Euro/USD is still strong. It rose to 1.3076 during yesterday’s trading, the highest level seen since October 22. The Euro dropped against yen after rising to a seven-month high on 107,67 on Monday. A Greek bond buyback scheme at 65 – 70 % reduction of nominal value has attracted interest and also strengthened the common currency. There are small changes in other currency pairs. Australian dollar is stabile against yen and USD, and the Scandinavian currencies are demonstrating strength both against USD and Euro. EURO/USD is trading at 1.3054 at present.

    Oil prices are down. Brent crude has tipped down a dollar to 110,54. Precious metals are also trading lower. After recovering from end of last week’s steep fall from 1750-level to 1707, gold traded at 1721 yesterday. This morning gold has dropped down to 1703, a fall of 15 dollar an ounce.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    05 DECEMBER 2012: OBAMA STAYS FIRM ON TAXES FOR RICH

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    President Barack Obama held his ground on the “fiscal cliff” Tuesday. In an interview with Bloomberg Television Obama stressed that no budget compromise was possible without the wealthiest Americans paying their fair share of common expenses. With less than a month left to confront budget cuts and tax increases that will take effect from January 1st unless Congress acts, Republicans seem increasingly in disarray over how far to go to compromise with Obama’s demands. In the interview Obama took a conciliatory tone, but excluded any further tax burdens on an embattled middle class.

    The insecurity over whether total budget cuts and tax hikes amounting to USD 300 billion would be implemented in some few weeks’ time, has severely affected markets. Wall Street finished slightly lower in a quiet session with thin trading volumes. Hewlett Packard recovering from last week’s onslaught when its share prices dropped 15 % in one day, was together with Intel who announced a buy-back of own shares, the winners.

    Asian shares rose Wednesday led by surging Chinese equities. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were up 0,6 percent. Shanghai shares surged 3 percent to reclaim the 2000 point level. Hong Kong shares jumped 1,3 percent. Nikkei also inched up on a statement from Bank of Japan confirming willingness for more aggressive monetary easing. USD/JPY which during yesterday’s trading strengthened substantially and reached 81,75, fell back in morning trade to 82,25 supporting exporters.

    Better than expected terms for Greek bonds buy-back plan raised optimism that Athens will secure much needed emergency aid to avert a default. The news took the euro/USD above 1.32 levels for the first time in months. The Euro was also helped by Obama’s statements that weakened the dollar and increased risk sentiments. Gold saw a new set-back and fell to 1685. It has recovered to 1701 in morning trade. Oil prices have as well recovered from yesterday’s lows. Brent crude is up 0,2 % trading above USD 110 a barrel.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    06 DECEMBER 2012: NOKIA CAUSES FALL IN APPLE

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    US stocks ended mostly higher on Wednesday. Dow Jones gained 0,64 percent and is again trading above 13 000. Nasdaq ended in red after the largest US company by market capitalization, Apple, swallowed its biggest fall In share prices in four years. Apple fell 6 percent and is down more than 20 percent from an all-time high reached in late September. Market participants cited a host of reasons for the drop; the company is losing share in the tablet market and NOKIA joining ranks with China’s biggest smart phone maker will give Apple a tough fight on the Chinese market.

    Banking shares went higher led by Citigroup which jumped 6,3 % on a 10 000 employees or 4 % cut in its workforce. Cyclical shares closely tied to economic growth, also rallied on optimism on progress on a solution to avoid the fiscal cliff. Obama met with business chief executives in Washington and stressed readiness for a compromise if Republicans acknowledged the need to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. If the Republicans demonstrate such willingness, a budget deal can be reached within a week. The Republican is under strong pressure not at least from their own constituencies and; cracks in the ranks and possible “defectors” are likely to appear.

    In England the Finance minister, George Osborne presented a new austerity budget to the House of Commons admitting that to have fallen short to obtain former set targets set. The budget proposal is most probably going to raise a new heated debate on whether austerity measures as practiced in England, Greece and other Western European countries are the right medicine to fight sovereign debt, trade and budget deficits. “Osborne has no more tricks to play”, commented one of the biggest British dailies.

    Obama’s “fiscal cliff” comments created optimism in Asia where shares rose to a 16-month high. The Japanese Nikkei climbed 0,8 percent helped by a weaker yen. USD/JPY trades at 82,45. Euro/USD eased to 1.3054 after reaching a seven-week high of USD 1.3127 Wednesday. A disappointing Spanish bond auction reminded investors of the fragile fiscal health both of Spain and inside the euro zone and prompted a sell-off in the single currency. The markets are today waiting for the European Central Bank’s policy decision and US labor market report tomorrow.

    Oil prices have fallen over the last 24 hours. Brent crude is one dollar down and trades below USD 109 a barrel. Gold is under downward pressure and tested the lows for the week at USD 1685 an ounce yesterday.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    07 DECEMBER 2012: EURO FALLS ON BLEAK OUTLOOK

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The European Central Bank, ECB’s, bleak outlook for the euro zone presented at a press conference yesterday, created turbulence in the currencies markets. The euro/USD fell to its lowest level in one week at 1.2969, down 150 basis points from its high on Wednesday. The fall in the Euro has worsened by the political development in Italy where Silvio Berlusconi’s Freedom Party withdrew its support for the technocrat government of Prime Minister Mario Monti. This immediately put pressure also on Italian bonds.

    The main trigger for the sharply negative euro reaction was the mention of a “wide discussion over rate cuts. ECB President Mario Draghi said policymakers had considered cutting its main 0,75 % policy rate before deciding to leave it on hold. Draghi added that the ECB also “operationally was ready for negative rates”. This caused the euro to tumble and led biggest one-day loss in the single currency in one month.

    The Euro fell steeply also against yen and other currencies. USD/JPY is urging up at 82,48. The slid in the Euro helped push the dollar index, DXY, up to 80,236 rebounding from a six week low of 79,58. Investors’ eyes are now on US non-farm payrolls report to be published later today. A sharp slowdown in employment growth IS expected due to the disruptions caused by super storm Sandy.

    Asian shares touched fresh 16-months on Friday following modest gains in global equities as investors watched progress in US budget talks. Recent indicators suggesting stabilized growth in China has helped improve sentiments in Asia. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares rose 0,6 percent and has gained 17 percent during 2012. Hong Kong shares reached a 16-month high. In the US a rebound in Apple helped boost technology shares on quiet exchanges.

    Oil prices fell heavily yesterday. Brent crude tipped below USD 107 a barrel, but has recovered somewhat. Gold is again trading above USD 1700 an ounce.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    10 DECEMBER 2012: ASIAN SHARES FIRM ON US OPTIMISM

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Asian stocks stayed firm at its 16-month high Monday morning as better growth outlook for US and China gave raise to modest optimism. This came after US consumer confidence plunged in early December as fear over imminent tax raises and spending cuts, the fiscal cliff, outweighed the better than expected raise in non-farm payrolls job data. Unemployment fall from 7,9 to 7,7 % in November adding 146 000 new jobs suggests a modest momentum in US economy. The drop in unemployment figures is, however, mainly due to 350 000 people leaving the labor market.

    The Asia Pacific share index rose 0,3 percent. The index was up 1 percent last week for its third successive weekly gain. Regional Asian market was Sunday further boosted when China reported a pick-up in factory output and retail sales after stagnating for seven quarters. Chinese exports and imports were, however, delivering below forecast presenting a mixed picture.

    The Euro/USD continues to slide. Euro reached a two week low of 1.2876 on Friday after the German central back warned that Germany, the biggest economy inside the euro zone, might soon enter into recession. The Euro is at present trading at 1.2893. The pro Euro Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, announced during the weekend that his government will withdraw. That will put the Euro under increased pressure. The development in ten-year Italian bonds which are seen as a main confidence barometer for investors shall be closely followed today.

    The American dollar is up 0,3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Commodity markets led by copper are generally firmer on expectation of stronger Chinese industrial demand. Oil prices are stabilizing after falling steeply last week. Brent crude trades at USD 107,40 a barrel. Gold (1706) and silver (33,14) are up from Friday.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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