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Thread: Currencies today by UWCFX

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    26 DECEMBER 2012: MARKETS ARE WAITING FOR PROGRESS IN NEGOTIATIONS ON BUDGETARY QUESTIONS IN THE USA

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Without special enthusiasm passed the pre-Christmas truncated trading session on Wall Street. Key indexes lost about 0,2-0,4% on small trading volumes. As a part of an index of blue chips - Dow Jones, the greatest contribution to decrease in the indicator made the representatives of hi-tech sector: Hewlett-Packard (-2,3%), Microsoft (-1,42%), Cisco Systems (-0,65%).

    Besides, in the days which have remained to New year, statistical departments will submit data on the housing market, in particular housing prices, sales of new buildings and incomplete sales of houses. The research organization Conference Board will publish data on dynamics of an index of consumer confidence in the USA for December. While stock markets stiffened waiting for news from America regarding "fiscal cliff".

    Asian share indexes bargain today in more expanded structure, than yesterday, however the stock exchanges of Australia and Hong Kong are still closed in connection with celebration of Catholic Christmas. At the same time the Japanese Nikkei index continues the ascending movement caused by the next round of weakening of national currency, but the index of continental China SSE corrects today a yesterday's steady growth.

    The Japanese yen continues today to decrease, USD/JPY pair bargains at the level of 85,3, again updating thereby an one-and-a-half-year maximum, and approaching a maximum of 2 years, established at the level of 85,5.

    Yesterday futures of gold rose in price in Tokyo for the first time for the last four days this is connected with statements of the new prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe who is the supporter of "soft" approach to economy. He insists that if the Central Bank of the country will not raise a level of inflation for stimulation of economic growth, he will change his powers. All this promotes that gold acts again for investors as "smooth water". Today this morning, we can see gold traded on a level of 1655.98. Silver is slightly strengthening and traded at level of 29.95, getting closer to a level of 30 dollars per troy ounce.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    27 DECEMBER 2012: MARKETS WAIT FOR NEWS FROM WASHINGTON

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The European stock exchanges were closed yesterday, but American indexes showed not so positive dynamics and were closed with a decrease. Dow Jones lost 0.18%, but Nasdaq and S&P500 were closed with a fall of 0.74% and 0.47% accordingly. Fears of the American investors are again connected with a dependence of the main problem of year - "fiscal cliff", and also with a ceiling of the public debt which limit, according to the Minister of Finance - Timothy Geithner, will be reached already on December 31 of the current year.

    Also oil to fire was added by data on retails which were record-breaking low, their volume from October 28 till December 24 grew only by 0,7% in comparison with the similar period last year. Master Card also specifies that many people show today restraint in the purchases, being afraid of "fiscal cliff" which can come on January 1 and bring with itself increase of taxes.

    Futures for WTI brand oil yesterday jumped up for $2,37 to $90,98 for barrel. Today WTI oil is traded on a level of $91,18 for barrel, Brent is decreasing less than 0,2%, bargaining at the level of $111,05 for barrel.

    Gold loses the positions in one of the last days of 2012, trading passes very inertly as many participants of the market already left for holidays. Gold is losing 0.25% and traded on a level of $1656.50, silver is bargaining around level of $30.00 second day in a row.

    Absolutely other situation is observed in copper futures which add more than 1.3%. Quotations break through a level of $7900 after the National bureau of statistics of the People's Republic of China reported that the profit of the industrial companies in the country grew in November by 22.8% in comparison with the similar period last year. China is the largest consumer of copper therefore investors hope that recovery of the Chinese economy will positively influence demand for metal.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    28 DECEMBER 2012: LAST TALKS ON “FISCAL CLIFF” STRENGTHEN EURO

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    President Barack Obama and lawmakers are launching a last chance round of budget talks just days before a New Year’s deadline to reach a deal to avoid a “fiscal cliff”: an increase of USD 600 billion of taxes and budget cuts to be automatically executed from January 1st if politicians fail to find a budget compromise. Obama and Vice President Joe Biden will meet with congressional leaders from both parties in the afternoon today. The news has for now strengthened risk appetite and Euro/USD is up.

    The two political parties remained far apart particularly over plans to increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans to help close the US budget deficit. The coming days are likely to see intense bargaining over numbers or political theatre as each side attempt to avoid blame if a deal looks unlikely.

    US stocks sharply cut losses and rose on news of the House reconvening as investors clung to hopes of an 11th –hour deal. Even a partial agreement on taxes that would leave tougher issues like entitlement reform and the debt ceiling until later could be enough to keep markets calm. US stocks recovered, but fell for a fourth day after a jittery session which saw a one % fall after Senate Majority leader, Henry Reid, initially warned that a deal was unlikely. Stock markets recovered and ended flat on news on new negotiations. Dow Jones ended down 0,14 % to 13 096 after a one percentage free fall in the opening of yesterday’s session.

    Asian shares inched higher on signs that Washington is making a last ditch effort to reach a budget compromise. The USD/JPY fell to its lowest level in 2 years trading at 86,64, and Japanese stocks to 21 months high on expectations of drastic monetary easing. Australian shares rose to a 19 month high and are on track to post its strongest annual gain since 2009. Oil prices rose on hopes of a US political deal. Brent crude reached USD 111 a barrel.

    EURO/USD has recovered to 1.3240 after falling to 1.3170 before Christmas on news of failed budget negotiations. A budget settlement will create renewed optimism for continued US economic growth and increased risk appetite which will strengthen the Euro and smaller currencies. Australian dollar hit a 20-month peak against the yen at 89,93 and is also up against the USD.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    31 DECEMBER 2012: LAST DITCH EFFORTS TO AVOID “FISCAL CLIFF”

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Democratic and Republican leaders pushed the United States to the edge of the “fiscal cliff” on Sunday as they struggled to reach a last-minute deal that could protect the world largest economy from a politically induced recession. Senate lawmakers are still hoping to clear the way for swift action thereby avoiding sweeping tax increases and spending cuts due to tick in on Tuesday, January 1st. The two sides are, however, still at loggerheads in talks. Senate was adjourned yesterday and meet again today for a last ditch effort to reach a compromise.

    Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid last night postponed any possible votes; “There are still significant differences between the two sides”, Reid stated. President Obama had originally proposed a USD 250 000 income threshold for increased taxes. The Republicans are in principle against all tax increases, but has voiced a compromise threshold on USD 1 million. The parties are also wide apart on possible budget spending cuts.

    As hours ticked away it appeared increasingly unlikely to avoid a USD 600 billion hammer blow to the fragile US economy recovery. Americans could see a bigger bite taken out of their pay checks starting on 1st January as payroll and income tax cuts expire. Two million unemployed Americans could see their jobless benefits run out. The uncertainties have weighed in on global, financial market. Investors are likely to sell off stocks at the beginning of the new year expressing their displeasure with a no deal.

    In a rare appearance on Sunday’s NBCs “Meet the Press”, president Barack Obama warned against the immediate negative effects on markets and blamed the Republicans for rejecting significant presented compromises. His accusations were flatly refused by Republican spokesmen.

    Due also to Christmas and the New year holidays investors have been sitting on the side lines waiting for Washington to act. US markets were down for a fifth straight session on Friday, and there were small changes in the currency and commodity markets. Euro/USD is trading around 1.3215 up from last week’s low on 1.3175. USD/JPY is stabile on 86 yen to a dollar. Oil prices are high with Brent crude above USD 110 a barrel. No major changes in commodity and precious metal prices. Gold is at USD 1660 an ounce.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    02 JANUARY 2013: FISCAL DEAL GIVES RELIEF RALLY IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    A compromise in the 24th hour avoided the fiscal cliff at least for now. After tough negotiations running into the new year, Democrats and Republicans succeeded in reaching partial agreement on a threshold which imposes tax increases on incomes above USD 400 000. The “grand deal” of bigger taxes on the rich combined with spending cuts which President Barack Obama aimed for, has been suspended till March. The Senate and the House of Representatives voted during night hours in favor of the compromise deal, which has been difficult to swallow for all parties.

    The drama around the fiscal cliff which has dominated US and global markets for the last months, has thereby found a temporarily solution. Markets reacted with relief and sent stock markets in Asia to new highs after a bumpy session in the US on New Year’s Eve. Investors shifted between optimism and pessimism till the majority gambled on a deal. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq posted healthy gains. With president Obama’s signing of the deal this morning that gamble has paid off.

    The compromise has given global markets a good start on the year in spite of general consensus that major economic and financial challenges have to be dealt with especially the big US deficits and the problems inside the Eurozone. Angela Merkel in her New Year speech reminded that problems inside the Euro-zone by no means had reached an end. The deal in Congress means, however, that there are good chances that the recovery of the US and global economy will continue. Better prospects for still high growth in China will boost global markets. This more positive sentiment is reflected in today’s trades where oil and commodity prices are up in expectations of increased growth. New York crude, NYMEX, is above USD 93 a barrel and Brent crude is above 111. Copper, gold and silver prices are also up.

    The positive attitude is also reflected in the currency markets where there are increased appetite for more risky currencies as Euro and British pounds. EURO/USD trades at 1.3280 up 100 basis points. USD/GBP is above 1.63. Japanese yen, a “safe haven” currency continues to lose ground against both Euro and the USD. USD/JPY is above 87 yen a dollar. Typical commodity currencies as Australian and Canadian dollar are up together with the Scandinavian; Swedish, Norwegian and Danish krones.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    03 JANUARY 2013: EURO FALLS BACK ON PROFIT TAKING

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The relief rally in securities after the US avoided the fiscal cliff, continued in Europe, the United States and Asia this morning. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 2,35 % to 13 412. Nasdaq reached 3 112 up more than 3 %. The technology and banking sectors posted the biggest gains with Bank of America up 3,7 % and Apple as the winners. The gains came on heavy volumes with funds leaving the bond market entering into equities. 7,8 billion shares were traded against an average of 6.42 billion.

    The dollar slid against high-yielding currencies with investors selling “safe haven” currencies as dollar and yen on strong risk appetite. The losses in dollar and yen might, however, be temporary. Difficult negotiation on US spending restraints and the debt ceiling are waiting in the wings. The EURO which was favourite among investors in morning hours yesterday, lost all its gain during trading yesterday and plunged 150 points to Euro/USD 1.3136 on aggressive profit taking. Commodities which saw big increases on the budget compromise in expectations on stabile growth, have as well technically corrected with the exception of oil. Brent crude still trades above USD 112,40 a barrel.

    The compromise agreement on the “cliff” is seen as a victory for President Barack Obama in succeeding to increase taxes on the rich , but set up potentially bruising showdowns between Republicans and Democrats over the next two months on spending cuts and a limit on borrowing. Republicans who on the top are fighting disarray in own ranks with member principally against any tax hikes, were furious that the obtained deal did little to curb the financial deficit. There is a tense atmosphere between the two parties. The Republican House Speaker, John Boehner, is said to have told his Democrat counterparty, Harry Reid, to “go fuck yourself” before a final deal was reached.

    Asian stocks continued to post gains in morning hours Thursday on hopes for a steady economic revival in China. After Wednesday’s two % jump, the MSCI index for the Asian Pacific was up 0,3 %. Service sector data from China in December point to a healthy recovery. Both the China Enterprise index and Hon Kong’s Hang Sheng are up. A momentum that can last at least for some months seem to be building up.

    The Japanese yen bounced back after hitting a 29-month low versus USD. Even if USD/JPY looks somewhat overbought any strength in the yen is likely to be short-lived. USD/JPY trades at 87,24. GBP has also fallen back against the dollar, but the trend seems to be in favour of a stronger British pound. The Scandinavian currencies, NOK, SEK and DKK which also boomed on the Congress deal, has technically corrected and fallen back 0,5 to 1 %.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    04 JANUARY 2013: FED MINUTES BOOST USD. STOCKS AND GOLD PLUNGE

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The Wall Street New Year’s rally came to an abrupt end yesterday when minutes from the Federal Reserve, FED’s, December policy meeting put severe questions marks to whether monetary policy stimuli will continue. The minutes were released Thursday and the optimistic markets reacted immediately by sending US and Asian markets down. The USD skyrocketed while commodities and precious metals were in free fall. Euro/USD trades at 1.3034, a 250 basis points fall from the first trading day in January. Gold plunged USD 45 from its new year’s peak, and oil prices lose ground.

    The released minutes showed that some voting members of FED were increasingly concerned about the potential risks of FED’s asset purchases. The asset-buying policy has been pivotal in underpinning investor risk appetite and supporting global equities. The more hawkish FED minutes unnerved financial markets. Stocks gave up earlier gains and benchmark US Treasury yields rose to a near eight month high having a strong negative impact oil, commodities and equities lifting the dollar.

    US private sector hiring was pointing upwards before the monthly payrolls report is due later today. The monthly payroll report is one crucial indicator for FED deciding on future policy course. The rise in the dollar hit precious metals and oil especially hard. A firmer dollar makes dollar-based assets more expensive for non-dollar holders. The strong moves in the markets reflect positioning after the recent rallies and before the nonfarm payrolls report which can tip markets either way.

    While Nasdag and Dow Jones fell moderately, the MSCI index for Asia-Pacific fell 0,8 % after reaching a 19-months high on Thursday. The dollar hit its highest level against Yen since July 2010 at 87,78. The Euro fell to a three week low of 1.3018 against the dollar on Friday. The US dollar index, DXY, touched a four-week high against a basket of major currencies. The fall in the yen will probably continue with 90 yen against USD as likely in the short term. Yen’s fall continues to strengthen Nikkei which is at its highest level since March 2011.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    07 JANUARY 2013: ASIAN STOCKS DRIFT ON PROFIT TAKING

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Asian stocks drifted on Monday as investors booked profits from a New Year rally pushed market to highs not seen in months. Financial stocks gained after global regulators relaxed draft plans for tougher banking liquidity rules. The Asian Pacific MSCI-index retreated 0,9 % on Friday and was flat today after reaching its highest level since August 2011. The Japanese Nikkei retreated after last week touching a 23-month high.

    US jobless claims reported in line with expectations on Friday adding 155 000 new jobs. The unemployment rate is at 7,8 % indicating a slow, but steady recovery in the US economy which has propelled Wall Street stocks to a five year high. Minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Reserve, FED, released Thursday led to tumults in global, financial markets having riskier currencies and commodities to plunge. The USD index towards a basket of currencies rose to its highest level in week as the minutes were interpreted as FED is considering to end its bond-buying program as early as this year.

    The jobless data which strengthen the prospects of economic growth, had a stabilizing effect on commodity and precious metal prices. Gold rebounded from its USD 1625 an ounce level and trades at 1652 in the morning. Also silver has turned from USD 29,50 to 30,30. The dollar is close to a two-and-a-half-year high against the yen as investors adjusted to the possibility of more monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and less from FED. The dollar posted a gain on 2,7 % against yen after reaching a 88,40 peak on Friday. USD/JPY is currently trading at 87,941.

    EURO/USD fell to 1.30 on Friday on the interpretation that monetary easing is about to end. It has recovered over the weekend trading at 1.3032. The US benchmark S&P index, SPX, closed at its highest level since December 2007 on Friday after the publishing of job data which also showed a healthy expansion of jobs in the services sector.

    For the first time since 2001 the United States dominates the list of places that global real estate investors would prefer to put their money in 2013. A published survey reflects a sharply more optimistic view on the US economy and property market for 2013. New York and London top the list with San Francisco number 3 and Houston, Texas climbing to number 5 with Washington in fourth place. Among countries US is ranked number one followed by Brazil, UK and Turkey. Among emerging countries Brazil is the top spot followed by China, Turkey, India and Mexico.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    08 JANUARY 2013: US AND ASIAN STOCKS FELL ON PROFIT CAUTION

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    US and Asian shares took a break from the new year’s rallies yesterday and this morning on negative anticipations ahead of the corporate earnings season for last quarter of 2012. The aluminum giant, Alcoa, is as usual the first to present its quarterly results later today. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific drifted lower and eased 0,3 % after the New Year rally lifted stocks 2 %. Dow Jones were down 0,38 % with Walt Disney and Boeing the big losers. McDonald was on the top of the winning list gaining 1,18 %.

    In South Korea Samsung Electronics, the world’s number one producer of memory chips and handsets posted a record operating profit on more than 8 billion dollar. Samsung’s guidance is in line with forecasts for quarterly presentation on January 25th. The South Korean KOSPI lost 0,4 % in spite of Samsung’s announcement. Generally there are a cautious attitude towards the fourth quarter presentations. Results are expected to be generally bad. This is going to weigh in on stock markets the coming two – three weeks.

    The Euro remained firm against the dollar trading in the interval between 1.30 and 1.3035 on speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) might refrain from signalling more interest cuts when it meets on Thursday. USD/JPY which jumped to 88,40 at the end of last week, gaining more than 10 percent in two months, has corrected over the last two days trading at 87,50 yen to a dollar. The weakening of the yen is a result of speculation that the new Japanese government will push for aggressive monetary easing to fight deflation.

    Position adjustments are awaited in currencies ahead of the ECB meeting and earnings reports. Euro/USD might gain ground and push back to the 1,3050 level ahead of Thursday ECB meeting. After the strong rally in USD/JPY a downward correction is waited. There is, however, strong technical resistance at 86,50 yen.

    Copper prices rose to USD 8 096 a tonne on rumours that China’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has picked up in the last quarter. It is likely to increase to 7,8 %, higher than the general forecast on 7,5 %. China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper and other commodities. Oil prices remain steady with New York crude, NYMEX trading at USD 93 a barrel. Brent is at 111,50. Gold and silver prices stick above USD 1645 and 30 an ounce.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    09 JANUARY 2013: ALCOA OPENS RESULT SEASON WITH PROFIT

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Alcoa, the largest aluminium producer, opened the result season posting a fourth-quarter profit after the closure of the trading session yesterday night. The company expressed cautious optimism that the demand for aluminium will continue to grow in 2013m helped by global growth in aerospace and construction markets. Alcoa-shares rose 1,3 % in after hour trading. The results of the first major company to report results, were welcomed news for investors which breathed a sigh of relief hoping other reporting companies would follow suit.

    Asian shares rose Wednesday morning after a couple of days of profit taking on optimism on companies fourth quarterly results. The Asian-Pacific MSCI-index and Australia were up 0,4 %. Analysts have been cautious in their forecasts for the fourth quarter which generally is expected to present results in line with the third quarter. The Japanese Nikkei erased Monday’s losses and climbed 0,5 % as the rebound in the USD/JPY lost steam. USD rose from 86,825 yesterday to 87,43 yen to a dollar. The Bank of Japan, BOJ, is considering further monetary easing during its 21-22 January meeting and double the inflation target to 2 %.

    The EURO/USD is steady on 1.3075 after reaching on 1.3120 yesterday. Euro/Yen is trading at 114,35 off from yesterday’s lows of 113,35. Statistics released yesterday shows that unemployment in the Eurozone continue to raise reaching 11,8 %. Greece and Spain are hardest hit with unemployment on 25 % with alarming number of unemployed between 18 and 25 years reaching above 50 %. The unemployment figures had no immediate effect on the Euro. There is no major news in the Eurozone before the ECB’s (European Central Bank) meeting on Thursday.

    Oil prices are flat with NYMEX, New York crude, trading at 93.17 and Brent just below USD 112 a barrel. Gold prices have picked up and trade at 1658. There is also a firmer trend in silver trading at 30,44 after reaching a peak on 30,55 yesterday.

    Copyright: United World Capital
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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