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  1. #1
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 14/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 14, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action
    Expert: Kris Matthews
    When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET

    Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro jumped after the market’s open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.28 in the morning, and hitting 1.2890 in New York. Now the question is will the EUR succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.2920? In fact, we do not believe it will, and even if it did, this will provide a selling opportunity. As we approach 1.2920, sort of (yesterday’s high was 1.2890), we believe that topping and creating a medium term top to fall from for days is very possible. But there is a very critical condition to this gloomy scenario, which is to top below or close to 1.2920, and not to break this level decisively. Short term support is at 1.2853, if broken, the real journey away from 1.2920 will start. In this case we expect a strong drop to the important 1.2737, and to 1.2658, and even lower than that given enough time. On the other side, 1.2920 is definitely the resistance of the day, and only a break here will change the negative outlook. If this happens, we will target 1.3000 & the important 1.3047.

    Support:
    • 1.2853: Sep 1st high.
    • 1.2737: short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
    • 1.2658: Wednesday’s low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.2920: Aug 19th top.
    • 1.3000: psychological level.
    • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    We broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 83.79, and the price dived to 83.07 so far. This was completely expected, and we do hope that we are on the way to our long awaited target of 82.00. Last week, we adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday’s jump. We still believe in USD\/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 84.48 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again last week, as the “Japs” said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing! The market has had it with these comments, and now the Japanese authorities should buy tickets to the “Yen Show”, and see what it will do to the Dollar & the Euro! Short term support is at 83.22, and if broken, we will be on the way to our long-awaited target at 82.00, then we will see the psychological level at 80.00. On the other hand, the above mentioned trend line is at 84.48. If broken, the Dollar will be violent to us all, and actually this break could be a sign of an intervention, and it will shoot up to 86.25 & 86.95.

    Support:
    • 83.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
    • 82.00: the falling trend line on the weekly chart, combining the monthly lows of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009.
    • 80.00: psychological level.

    Resistance:
    • 84.48: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart
    • 86.25: Jul 16th bottom.
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.

    ---

    GBP/USD

    The Pound jumped after the market’s open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.54. The question we presented yesterday was will it succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.5490? And we have recommended selling close to this level. The price behavior was completely in line with our analysis. The price stopped at 1.5486 (4 pips before our resistance) and dived to 1.5347 (3 pips before the target). That was the 4th time this month we test the massive 1.5490! and we still believe that if there was a 5th time, it is a good selling opportunity, with a stop above 1.5532. The reasons behind this belief are two: we have seen how this massive resistance level has rejected the price 4 times recently, and because the falling trend line from Aug 16th top is just above it providing another important resistance. It is hard to picture this pair breaking both levels today. On the other hand, breaking 1.5490 decisively is not probable today, but if it happens, the Pound will target 1.5575 at the very least, and then 1.5646. support is at 1.5360, and a break here would be a signal of a big fall, targeting 1.5262 & 1.5147.

    Support:
    • 1.5360: important intraday level.
    • 1.5249: Jul 23rd low.
    • 1.5147: Jul 22nd low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5490: the massive resistance level containing the highs of Sep 1st & 6th.
    • 1.5575: Aug 30th high.
    • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  2. #2
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 15, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action
    Expert: Kris Matthews
    When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET

    Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro jumped strongly yesterday, even though it initially broke the support specified in yesterday’s report. We broke the important level specified in yesterday’s report 1.2920, and successfully reached the first suggested target of 1.3000. We have seen the EURUSD jumping more than 100 pips above the massive 1.2920, this shows that even when they are broken, important levels provide good trading opportunities just as when they hold and reverse the trend. During the Asian session the Euro dropped to create a correction of 38.2% of yesterday’s jump. It stopped with astonishing accuracy at the short term Fibonacci 38.2% level, bottoming at 1.2954, just 1 pip above the Fibo level. This will be our support for today, and if broken, we expect the drop which has gained 80 pips so far to go on. Targets will be 1.2886 & 1.2764. On the other hand, yesterday’s rise almost made it to the all important medium term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3047. this is the most important resistance level for now, if broken we will be on the way to levels above 1.31, the most important of which are 1.3118 & 1.3194.

    Support:
    • 1.2954: Asian session low & short term Fibonacci 38.2% level.
    • 1.2886: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on the hourly chart.
    • 1.2764: Sep 9th high.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. The most important resistance level at the moment.
    • 1.3118: Aug 5th low.
    • 1.3194: Aug 2nd high.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    All the major Yen pairs jumped together during the Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87.

    Support:
    • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
    • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.
    • 87.56: Jul 20th high.

    ---

    GBP/USD

    The Pound jumped yesterday and broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5490, and reached the first suggested target for this break at 1.5575 successfully. After it topped 10 pips above our target then dropped hard for more than 100 pips. This is a sign of exhaustion, and that breaking 1.5490, which we believe is very important, only had a short term effect on the price behavior. This morning we approached a critical short term support level which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the latest rise from 1.5347 on Monday to 1.5585 yesterday. This level which is at 1.5438 is the most important support for now. The drop stopped just 10 pips above it a few hours ago, and if is broken, then the Pound has already topped medium term yesterday at 1.5585, and it will continue its drop targeting the very attractive 1.5326, and at a later time 1.5249. On the other hand, the Pound should break the resistance 1.5533 to keep the chances of another jump alive. If it succeeds, we expect it to target medium term important levels: 1.5646 & 1.5728.

    Support:
    • 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
    • 1.5326: Aug 31st low.
    • 1.5249: Jul 23rd low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5533: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
    • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  3. #3
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 16/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 16, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action
    Expert: Kris Matthews
    When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET

    Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro did not move enough to penetrate the support or resistance specified in yesterday’s report. But, when we investigate the rising move from 1.2586, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.3332, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 61.8% level. Yesterday’s high was 1.3035, the highest level since August 11th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.3047 (please refer to the attached chart). This resistance will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south. That is why it will be our resistance of the day. If broken, we will target 1.3145 & 1.3237. On the other hand, it would sound bizarre to say that the Euro is weak, and we will not say that. But we do believe that as long as it is below 1.3047, it will be vulnerable. The first sign of a failure at 1.3047 will be going back to trade below 1.2973. If this happens, expect a big drop, targeting 1.2855 first, then the important and strong 1.2764.

    Support:
    • 1.2973: the rising trend line from
    • 1.2885: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.2643.
    • 1.2764: Sep 9th high.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. The most important resistance level at the moment.
    • 1.3145: Aug 3th low.
    • 1.3194: Aug 4th high.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    The Dollar/Yen retreated more than 35 pips today, or 0.41%, this leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? Yesterday’s support & resistance levels were not touched, and this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance yesterday, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together during yesterday’s Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87.

    Support:
    • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
    • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.
    • 87.56: Jul 20th high.

    ---

    GBP/USD

    The Pound jumped yesterday, to break the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5533, and then reach the first suggested target 1.5464 successfully & accurately as the price topped only 4 pips above it. Whet is even more important than meeting our 100 pips target is what we see when we investigate the rising move from 1.5295. When we do, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.5996, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 50% level. Yesterday’s high was 1.5650, the highest level since August 19th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.5646 (please refer to the attached chart). This resistance is pretty important, but we have to admit that the most important level is definitely 1.5728. This level will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south. Or resistance of the day is 1.5646. If broken, we will target 1.5728 & 1.5854. On the other hand, it would sound bizarre to say that the Pound is weak, and we will not say that. But we do believe that as long as it is below 1.5728, it will be vulnerable. The first sign of a failure at 1.5646 will be going back to trade below 1.5585. If this happens, expect a big drop, targeting 1.5463 first, then the important and strong 1.5370.

    Support:
    • 1.5585: the rising trend line from Tuesday’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.5463: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 1.5370: Aug 24th low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5854: Aug 4th low.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  4. #4
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 20/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 20, 2010


    Euro Dollar

    Although the Euro penetrated 1.3047 on Thursday, and jumped strongly, reaching the first suggested target 1.3145, it stopped there, and dropped from Friday high which was 1.3157, sharply. The importance of breaking 1.3047 comes from the fact that this level is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.3332 which is a 4-month high, to 1.2586 which is a 2-month low. We have abandoned our negative outlook after the penetration of 1.3047, but it seems that the Euro has failed at the first serious test after that. The price has stopped at the retest level of the rising trend line from the June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, the technical outlook, even after penetrating 1.3047, is not strong enough to consider the Euro a “buy”, after failing in the retest. Short term resistance is at 1.3118, and only if broken will the Euro have another chance to rise. If it does break this level targets will be 1.3194 & 1.3306. On the other hand, the support is at 1.3060, and if broken, we will head towards the Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from 1.2643 to Friday’s high. The first two of these levels are 1.2961 & 1.2900.

    Support:
    • 1.3056: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.2961: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.2643.
    • 1.2900: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.2643.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3118: Aug 5th low.
    • 1.3194: Aug 2th high.
    • 1.3306: Aug 9th high.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Japan warned speculators once again on Friday, that it will be violent against those who buy the Yen. The price has moved sideways for quite a while now. This leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance yesterday, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together during yesterday’s Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87.

    Support:
    • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
    • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.
    • 87.56: Jul 20th high.

    ---

    GBP/USD

    The Pound has touched our resistance of 1.5278 on Friday, as the high was 1.5727, and it traded below there the whole time. We have clarified in Thursday’s & Friday’s reports the huge importance of this level. When we investigate the rising move from 1.5295. When we do, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.5996, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 61.8% level. The Pound reached 1.5727, the highest level since August 11th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.5728 (please refer to the attached chart). The most important level is definitely 1.5728. This level will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south. Our resistance of the day is definitely 1.5728. If broken, we will target 1.5854 & 1.5905. On the other hand, it would sound bizarre to say that the Pound is weak, and we will not say that. But we do believe that as long as it is below 1.5728, it will be vulnerable. The first sign of a failure at 1.5728 will be going back to trade below 1.5660. If this happens, expect a big drop, targeting 1.5549 &1.5438.

    Support:
    • 1.5660: the rising trend line from Tuesday’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.5549: short term Fibonacci 38.2% resistance.
    • 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5854: Aug 4th low.
    • 1.5905: Aug 2nd & 10th high.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  5. #5
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 21/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 21, 2010


    Euro Dollar

    Stunningly, the Euro stopped exactly & down to the pip at our suggested resistance in yesterday’s report 1.3118, to confirm the importance of this level, which will live to see itself as our resistance for one more day. The Euro had penetrated 1.3047 on Thursday, and jumped strongly, reaching the first suggested target for this break 1.3145, it stopped there, and dropped from Friday high which was 1.3157, sharply. We have abandoned our negative outlook after the penetration of 1.3047, but it seems that the Euro has failed at the first serious test after that. The price has stopped at the retest level of the rising trend line from the June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart), and then left us with a (Shooting Star) candle pattern. Therefore, the technical outlook, even after penetrating 1.3047, is not strong enough to consider the Euro a “buy”, after failing in the retest. Short term resistance is at 1.3118, and only if broken will the Euro have another chance to rise. If it does break this level targets will be 1.3194 & 1.3306. On the other hand, the support is at 1.3056, and if broken, we will head towards the Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from 1.2643 to Friday’s high. The first two of these levels are 1.2961 & 1.2900.

    Support:
    • 1.3056: the rising trend line combining Wednesday’s, Thursday’s & yesterday’s lows, on the hourly chart.
    • 1.2961: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.2643.
    • 1.2900: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.2643.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3118: Yesterday’s high, Aug 5th low.
    • 1.3194: Aug 2th high.
    • 1.3306: Aug 9th high.

    ---


    USD/JPY

    No change whatsoever in this pair that is not moving! Japan warned speculators once again on Friday, that it will step in if needed. The price has moved sideways for a few days now. This leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance in the past few days, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together on Wednesday, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87.

    Support:
    • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
    • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.
    • 87.56: Jul 20th high.

    ---


    GBP/USD

    The Pound broke the support specified in yesterday’s report, 1.5660 and dropped hard to successfully reach our suggested target of 1.5549. with this drop, the Pound has sailed away from the all important 1.5728, and therefore, the technical outlook is now negative, without a doubt, and based on several factors which are: 1. The extremely accurate top at 1.5728, 2. Breaking the rising trend line from last week’s high & 3. Yesterday’s drop to a 6-day low. Short term support is at 1.5558, if broken, we expect a strong drop which will look a lot like yesterday’s fall. The targets for such a drop will be the important 1.5438, then 1.5344. Resistance is at 1.5655, and only with a break here that we will change our negative outlook. If we get this break, things will change, and we will be on the way yet to another test of the important 1.5728 level, and if broken we will shoot for 1.5854. But, as long as we are below 1.5655, things are negative for this weak pair.

    Support:
    • 1.5558: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support.
    • 1.5344: Sep 10th low, a well known support area.


    Resistance:
    • 1.5655: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Friday’s top.
    • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5854: Aug 4th low.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  6. #6
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 22/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 22, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market
    Expert: Stephanie Radkay
    When: Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 11:00 GMT

    Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s reports 1.3118, after two days of trying, and successfully reached both targets 1.3194 & 1.3306 with accuracy as well (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 5 pips above our 2nd target at 1.3311). The Euro broke the above mentioned resistance early yesterday, but it was not until the FED issued its statement that it literally “exploded” in the face of the Dollar! Reaching 1.33 once again has pushed us to revisit the long term analysis, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapse and drop to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: resistance is at 1.3332, if broken then this rally will go on, and will target 1.3414 then a very important Fibonacci level at 1.3509. Support is at 1.3284, and if broken a correction is due, with ideal targets at 1.3203 & 1.3135.

    Support:
    • 1.3284: important intraday level which was formed after the FED.
    • 1.2203: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.3027.
    • 1.3135: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3027.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3332: Aug 6th top.
    • 1.3414: Apr 27th high.
    • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Finally, some movement in this “dead” pair! After the Fed last night, we broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.25 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.49. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.25 or 85.49 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.25, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.49 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95.

    Support:
    • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
    • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.49: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart
    • 86.25: Jul 20th high.
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.

    ---

    GBP/USD

    In spite of the FED, in spite of the Euro soaring to 1.33, and the Swiss Franc breaking above parity with the Dollar, the Pound did not break, or even test 1.5728. This charming resistance will still be our most important level for now, there is nothing more important. The Pound jumped strongly (As everybody else did) after the FED, breaking through 1.56 and topping very close to 1.57 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 1.5697). But , even with all this action, the technical outlook will not change before breaking 1.5728. Currently, and as we said in previous reports, we do not say that the Pound is weak, but it is surely vulnerable as long as it is trading below 1.5728, it could collapse any minute! Only a break of 1.5728 will change this sad status, and if we get this all important break, we will soar to 1.5854 first, then to 1.5906. On the other hand the support is at 1.5662, and a break here will initiate a correction for yesterday’s spike, targeting the important 1.5576 first, then 1.5448.

    Support:
    • 1.5662: the rising trend line from today’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.5576: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support.
    • 1.5448: Sep 15th low, a well known support area.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5854: Aug 4th low.
    • 1.5906: Aug 10th important top.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  7. #7
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 23/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 23, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market
    Expert: Stephanie Radkay
    When: Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 11:00 GMT

    Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s reports 1.3332, and reached our suggested target of 1.3414 with complete success. This pair had broken an important resistance at 1.3118 on Wednesday, but it was not until the FED issued its statement that it literally “exploded” in the face of the Dollar! Reaching 1.33 once again has pushed us to revisit the long term analysis, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapse and drop to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: resistance is at 1.3438, if broken then this rally will go on, and will target a very important Fibonacci level at 1.3509, then 1.3625. Support is at 1.3381, and if broken a correction is due, with ideal targets at 1.3281 & 1.3184.

    Support:
    • 1.3381: Asian session low.
    • 1.3281: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.3027.
    • 1.3184: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3027, and the rising trend line from Sep 10th low on the hourly chart. The single most important support at the moment without a doubt.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3438: Yesterday’s top.
    • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875.
    • 1.3625: Mar 19th high.

    ---


    USD/JPY

    This pair has praised our analysis yesterday as it “stole” the low from our report. Bottoming at 84.25, the same exact level we specified as support, down to the pip! Later, it consolidated above this level. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.28. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.03 or 85.28 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.03, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.28 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95.

    Support:
    • 84.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 83.33: Sep 8th low.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.28: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart, and short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
    • 86.25: Jul 20th high.
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.

    ---


    GBP/USD

    There is absolutely no change to the technical outlook provided yesterday. In spite of the FED, in spite of the Euro soaring to 1.33, and the Swiss Franc breaking above parity with the Dollar, the Pound did not break, or even test 1.5728. This charming resistance will still be our most important level for now, there is nothing more important. The Pound jumped strongly (As everybody else did) after the FED, breaking through 1.56 and topping very close to 1.57 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 1.5697). But , even with all this action, the technical outlook will not change before breaking 1.5728. Currently, and as we said in previous reports, we do not say that the Pound is weak, but it is surely vulnerable as long as it is trading below 1.5728, it could collapse any minute! Only a break of 1.5728 will change this sad status, and if we get this all important break, we will soar to 1.5854 first, then to 1.5906. On the other hand the support is at 1.5662, and a break here will initiate a correction for yesterday’s spike, targeting the important 1.5576 first, then 1.5448.

    Support:
    • 1.5662: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.5576: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support.
    • 1.5448: Sep 15th low, a well known support area.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5854: Aug 4th low.
    • 1.5906: Aug 10th important top.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  8. #8
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 27/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 27, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market
    Expert: Stephanie Radkay
    When: Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 11:00 GMT

    Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro topped at a 5-month high on Friday, hitting a high of 1.3497, just pips before the important Fibonacci level for the medium term. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapsing and dropping to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: support is at the Asian session low of 1.3445, and resistance is at the medium term Fibonacci level of 1.3509.If we take the resistance, then the trend goes on, and we will target 1.3589 & 1.3690. But a break of the support will give way to a downward correction targeting 1.3366 & 1.3285.

    Support:
    • 1.3445: Asian session low.
    • 1.3366: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3285.
    • 1.3285: Friday’s low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875.
    • 1.3589: Apr 1st & 2nd high.
    • 1.3690: Apr 12th high.

    ---


    USD/JPY

    Dollar/Yen retreated from 85.37 which was hit after rumors of an intervention, but as we said in our last report, this swift adventure could not be classified as a break of the what was them important level 85.28. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.21. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.03 or 85.21 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.03, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.28 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95.

    Support:
    • 84.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 83.33: Sep 8th low.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.21: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart.
    • 86.25: Jul 20th high.
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.

    ---


    GBP/USD

    After the market’s open, the Pound had hit the highest level since Aug 11th at 1.5843, and that came as a natural result of breaking the important 1.5728 in the second attempt on Friday. The technical indicators show a state of “overbnought” which leaves the possibility of a sharp correction there, but the short term trend is a rising one after breaking the 1.5728 level. This is why we strongly recommend not to pick sides today before breaking the specified support or resistance, and we believe that the short term direction will not show itself before a break! Short term support is provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the micro-term at 1.5765. If this level is broken , we will drop to more important Fibonacci level at 1.5673 &1.5632. On the other hand, the top of the rising channel from Sep 21st low on the hourly chart could tackle this rise, but if it gives way then the party will continue! The top of the channel is at 1.5871, and if broken we will jump to 1.5965 & 1.6000.

    Support:
    • 1.5765: Micro term Fibonacci 38.2% level
    • 1.5673: short term Fibonacci 50% support.
    • 1.5632: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5871: the top of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
    • 1.5965: Aug 3rd high.
    • 1.6000: psychological level.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  9. #9
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 28/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 28, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market
    Expert: Stephanie Radkay
    When: Mon, Thu, Oct 7, 2010, 11:00 ET

    Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro jumped to a new 5-month high yesterday at 1.3503, only 6 pips below the important 50% Fibonacci level for the medium term. This accurate reversal at a Fibonacci level leaves the Euro vulnerable, it could drop hard, any minute from anywhere, and it will be like this unless it breaks 1.3509. Therefore, the Euro has 2 choices, not 3: either it breaks 1.3509, or it collapses. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapsing and dropping to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: resistance is at the important medium term Fibonacci level 1.3509, while the support is at 1.3448. If the resistance is broken, this rally will continue, probably with obvious strength, as it will target 1.3589 & 1.3690. On the other hand, breaking 1.3448 will give the Dollar an opportunity to create a considerable bounce as it leans on the important Fibonacci at 1.3509. If this level is broken, we will ideally target.

    Support:
    • 1.3448: Fibonacci 50% for the micro-term.
    • 1.3368: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3285.
    • 1.3285: Friday’s low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875.
    • 1.3589: Apr 1st & 2nd high.
    • 1.3690: Apr 12th high.

    ---


    USD/JPY

    Dead boring, this pair just does not want to move, and to add to it, there are authorities that are “watching closely”. It is not a very promising situation, but we believe everything will change if 84.03 is broken. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.10. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.03 or 85.10 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.03, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.10 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95.

    Support:
    • 84.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 83.33: Sep 8th low.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    Resistance:
    • 85.10: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart.
    • 86.25: Jul 20th high.
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.

    ---


    GBP/USD

    The resistance specified in yesterday’s report as 1.5871 proved its importance as yesterday’s rise stopped only 6 pips below it (yesterday’s high was 1.5865). Then the price started dropping to areas below 1.58. The technical indicators show a state of “overbnought” which leaves the possibility of a sharp correction there, but the short term trend is a rising one after breaking the 1.5728 level. This is why we strongly recommend not to pick sides today before breaking the specified support or resistance, and we believe that the short term direction will not show itself before a break! Short term support is provided by the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, which is at 1.5784. If this level is broken , we will drop to more important Fibonacci level at 1.5684 &1.5641. On the other hand, the most important resistance for the short term is 1.5834, and probably we will not break it, but if it gives way then the party will continue! In this case, targets will be 1.5922 & 1.6000.

    Support:
    • 1.5784: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
    • 1.5684: short term Fibonacci 50% support.
    • 1.5641: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5834: the falling trend line from yesterday’s top on intraday charts.
    • 1.5922: Aug 3rd high.
    • 1.6000: psychological level.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  10. #10
    forexpros
    Guest

    Default Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 29/09/2010

    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 29, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market
    Expert: Stephanie Radkay
    When: Mon, Thu, Oct 7, 2010, 11:00 ET

    Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    Yesterday, we said “the Euro has 2 choices, not 3: either it breaks 1.3509, or it collapses”, and indeed the Euro did break 1.3509 and reached our first suggested target 1.3589 successfully & accurately (the 2-day high for yesterday & today until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3594). Earlier yesterday, the Euro broke the support at 1.3448 and almost made it to our first suggested target 1.3368, but it stopped 12 pips before achieving this unique happening of reached the sell strategy target & the buy strategy target on the same day. Breaking 1.3509 is a solid confirmation of the righteousness of our medium term outlook. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (where wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapsing and dropping to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Keep in mind that breaking 1.3509 confirms this analysis, and it supports the idea that we are heading to the target area suggested in the medium term analysis. Let’s talk short term now: resistance is at 1.3589, and if broken, we will target 1.3690 and then 1.3787. Short term support is at 1.3554, and if broken we expect a drop to 1.3461, and if broken to 1.3380.

    Support:
    • 1.3554: important intraday level.
    • 1.3461: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3380.
    • 1.3380: Yesterday’s low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.3589: Apr 1st & 2nd high.
    • 1.3690: Apr 12th high.
    • 1.3787: Feb 17th high.

    ---


    USD/JPY

    Finally, we broke 84.03 which was under our spotlight for several days. The drop which followed reached 83.59 so far. This break opened the door wide for a test, and most probably a break, of the 15-year low 82.87. We believe that getting there is only a matter of time. As you probably remember, the importance of 84.03 comes from the fact that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the rise from the 15-year low of 82.87 to the post-intervention top 85.91, therefore, it is the “guardian” of the 15-year bottom. This makes breaking 84.03 the first step in breaking 82.87, and reaching fresh 15-year lows. But the question is will this drop be fast, and we see these levels relatively soon, let’s say before the weekend? Or will it be a slow drop that will consume many days to get there? Short term support is at 85.30, and if broken, the drop will go on, and target areas below 83, we love 82.87 & 82.40 most of them. Short term resistance is a bit far, and it is at 84.71. If broken, we will shoot up 85.91 & 86.95, very unlikely at the moment, unless we have an intervention.

    Support:
    • 83.50: Sep 7th low.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.
    • 82.40: the trend line combining the monthly bottoms of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009.

    Resistance:
    • 84.71: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart.
    • 85.91: Sep 16th high.
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.

    ---


    GBP/USD

    Violent fluctuations seen yesterday, jumping to 1.5894 then dropping hard in a matter of 3 hours to 1.5718 is most probably a play to hit the largest number of stops on both sides, before initiating a large move. Technically speaking, breaking 1.5871 yesterday is definitely a positive sign, indicating strength. It was the second positive sign after breaking 1.5728 last week. Today, there is a notably important resistance at 1.5880, this level could give the green light to moving higher, or decline this attempt. We believe that breaking this level or failing at it is the single most important factor determining the short term direction. If we break 1.5880, the Pound will not settle for less than 1.60 seen for the first time in months! And may be later 1.6056. On the other hand, failure here will give the Dollar a chance to breathe, and go back down to test 1.5838. If broken, the Pound will suffer a downward correction, targeting yesterday’s low first, then the very important Fibonacci level 1.5651.

    Support:
    • 1.5838: important intraday level.
    • 1.5718: Yesterday’s low.
    • 1.5651: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5880: important intraday level.
    • 1.6000: psychological level.
    • 1.6056: Jan 7th high.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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