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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #151

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    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/06/2013

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday EURUSD traded lower but closed above the upward sloping trend line. This morning EURUSD is trading higher but within the previous two days range. A break above of or beneath the top or bottom of this range might indicate medium term market direction.

    In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend from up to down.

    However the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence. As EURUSD has found support at the upward sloping trend line this and the other bullish factors mention could give the market the excuse it needs to trade higher. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

    Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as EURUSD is trading at trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 6th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher following its bounce off support. This positivity has continued into today’s session with the price action now trading up to the 34 period moving averages.

    On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading within the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 6th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday failed to breach trend line resistance. Today’s session has so far been negative with today’s price action trading within the previous two days ranges.

    On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

    The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively a breach of trend line resistance could see could see USDCHF trade towards the 16th October isolated high.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 6th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday USDJPY traded away from the Fibonacci resistance area however the move down was limited and reversed at the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDJPY is trading higher and retesting the Fibonacci area.

    We have noticed that USDJPY experiencing a contraction of daily ranges which could be a sign that energy is building for a potential large break of the converging triangle formation.

    The trend on the daily time frame is pointing down but USDJPY has printed a higher high and the weekly time frame continues to be positive. These factors could potentially indicate that the break will be to the upside. Furthermore if USDJPY can breach 17th October isolated high will add further weight to the case for an upside break.

    However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.


    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 6th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday Gold continued to trade within a tight range and this price action has continued into this morning’s session.
    On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.


    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 6th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday Oil continued to trade and closed lower. This morning’s open has been quiet thus far.

    The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

  2. #152

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    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/07/2013


    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday EURUSD breached the high of the two day range only for the price action to trade back and close within this range. This morning EURUSD has open up slightly positive. We are monitoring the market action for signs that EURUSD will succeed with the upside breakout or alternatively this pair trades back to trend line support.

    In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend from up to down.

    However the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence. As EURUSD has found support at the upward sloping trend line this and the other bullish factors mention could give the market the excuse it needs to trade higher. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

    Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as EURUSD is trading around trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 7th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday GBPUSD breached and closed above 8 period moving averages. This positivity has continued into today’s session with the price action trading above the 34 period moving averages.

    On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading within the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 7th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    The price action continues to trade under trend line resistance and this morning has opened up within a four day range.

    On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

    The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively a breach of trend line resistance could see could see USDCHF trade towards the 16th October isolated high.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 7th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday USDJPY found support at the 8 period moving averages. This morning the price action continues to hug this average. However the Fibonacci resistance area continues to stall USDJPY upward momentum.

    We have noticed that USDJPY experiencing a contraction of daily ranges which could be a sign that energy is building for a potential large break of the converging triangle formation.

    The trend on the daily time frame is pointing down but USDJPY has printed a higher high and the weekly time frame continues to be positive. These factors could potentially indicate that the break will be to the upside. Furthermore if USDJPY can breach 17th October isolated high will add further weight to the case for an upside break.

    However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.


    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 7th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday Gold continued to trade within a tight range and this price action has continued into this morning’s session. We are monitoring breaks of this range with key levels being 1327.00 and 1305.50.
    On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 7th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday Oil rallied up to the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added. This morning Oil has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

    The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

  3. #153

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    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/08/2013


    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 7th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday’s surprise rate cut decision led to a collapse in EURUSD with the price action breaking through trend line support. By the afternoon buying came into the market which paired some of the losses. This reaction to the sell off formed a large V bottom and substantial correction that allowed EURUSD to close just beneath prior trend line support.

    This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath yesterday’s low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.

    In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layer negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by yesterday’s break down and the breach of Fibonacci support.

    However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.

    The Macro Technical Targets
    The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3650, and 1.3930. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 8th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday GBPUSD attempted to trade lower only for support to come into the market and in the process allow for a slightly higher close. This morning’s open has so far been quiet.

    On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 8th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterdays upside break of the 3 day range was followed by a breach of both trend line resistance and more importantly the 15th October high. The breach of this high is significant as USDCHF has now printed a higher high that effectively changes the trend on a swing basis to up. However yesterday was not a totally positive day as selling came into the market at trend line resistance that paired some of yesterday’s gains and in the process a bearish shooting star candle has been printed.

    This morning USDCHF has opened within yesterdays large range in what is so far a quiet open.

    On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.

    However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.

    Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.

    Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 8th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday USDJPY experienced a great deal of volatility and in the process printed a higher high that followed the breach of the 17th October high. This morning USDJPY is trading within yesterdays large range in what is a quiet open.

    As mentioned yesterday the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.

    However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 8th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Yesterday Gold broke down from the tight trading range. This morning’s open has thus far been quiet.
    We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
    On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 8th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments
    Yesterday Oil traded lower after touching the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.

    This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 2 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

    The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

    Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

  4. #154

    Default

    huge upward and downward in this pair, its better to stay away for while.....

  5. #155

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/11/2013

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 11th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Friday was another wide range day which eventually closed lower. Although Friday’s price action managed to close beneath Thursday’s close there was not sufficient downside momentum for EURUSD to trade beneath the low of Thursday’s trading range. This morning’s open has thus far been quiet and within Fridays trading range.

    This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath 7th November low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.

    In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down.

    However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.

    The Macro Technical Targets
    The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 11th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    On Friday GBPUSD retested trend line support but failed in its attempt to breach this area. This morning’s open has so far been quiet with the price action trading just above the trend line and with Fibonacci support.

    On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

    Marco Technical Targets
    1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5890 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 11th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Friday USDCHF made a further attempt to breach trend line resistance but was unable break above this area. However the price action did manage to close near the highs of its days range.

    This morning’s open has thus far been quiet. We are monitoring the price action for signs that USDCHF will either make another attempt to retest trend line resistance or fall back to its overextended averages.

    On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.

    However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.

    Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.

    Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 11th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Following Thursday 7th volatile day which printed both a higher high and lower close attention was focused on which way USDJPY would move and if the price action that followed confirmed the direction. Friday’s price action has given some confirmation that the printing of the higher high will lead to a new uptrend. Friday’s bar did in fact close strongly and near the top of its trading range and above positively layered averages. However Friday’s bar did not breach the 7th November high. We would want to see such a breach for further upside confirmation.

    This morning USDJPY has opened slightly negatively but it is rather early in the session to extract any conclusions from this. Our main focuses of attention for today is can USDJPY trade above the 7th November high and then make an attempt in breaching the downward sloping trend line.

    As mentioned in previous postings the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.

    However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 11th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Friday Gold continued to trade lower following Thursdays break down from its trading range and the 8 period moving averages.
    This morning’s open has thus far been quiet with the price action trading within Friday’s trading range.
    We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
    On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 11th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    On Friday Oil continued to hug the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.

    This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 4 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

    The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

    Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

  6. #156

    Default Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/12/2013

    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/12/2013

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 12th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments
    Yesterday EURUSD experienced a corrective rally which saw it trade well within both Thursdays and Fridays ranges.

    Intraday view
    This morning’s EURUSD has opened with a downside break of the overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action being 1.3317 to 1.3475.

    We are currently monitoring the price action for indications that EURUSD can trade and sustain a move either above the high or beneath the low of Friday’s range which was 1.3417 to 1.3437. Breaks of this range will have initial targets the low of the 7th November or upside targets of the 8 period moving averages and prior trend line support.

    Trade Ideas
    1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be views as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. EURUSD was supported during the down move and with the price action now extended from the averages could be a catalyst for long side position traders to take advantage of the lower prices. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.

    The Macro Technical Targets
    The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance or intraday swing failures could be potentially viewed as selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 12th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Intraday view
    This morning GBPUSD has broken down from its overnight range and breached and trading well under trend line support. The possible projected maximum range based upon current price action being 1.5900 to 1.6038. We are currently monitoring a potential move down to the low of the 16th October at 1.5893.

    Trade ideas
    1. On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013. If GBPUSD does continue to trade lower market participants looking for value on the long side of the market would potentially be looking at the double bottom area of 1.5893 with intraday swing failures of lower highs possibly offering opportunities to nibble on the long side.

    2. However as GBPUSD continues to breach multiple trend lines and with the price action now trading deep into Fibonacci support it would appear that the route of least resistance is to the down side with the initial target being the 1.5893 swing low.

    Marco Technical Targets
    1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up that GBPUSD is extended from its averages could offer opportunities to take long positions. However as the current market sentiment is fairly negative one would best look for areas where this down move stalls on an intraday basis so that long positions could possibly be entered.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as GBPUSD has broken trend line support areas there is potential for a move that takes the price action back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 12th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Trade ideas
    1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Friday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move. Intraday corrections and swing high failures could potentially offer the entry opportunities to test the long side.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction. Intraday swing low failures could possibly offer entry opportunities to the short side.

    Macro technical levels
    The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

    Scenario 1
    As there has been an upside break of the overnight range there is potential for a continuation of this move with the price action aiming for the target of last Thursday’s high.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the current intraday up trend could reverse following a failure to hold above a prior swing low.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 12th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments

    Intraday
    This morning session has exploded to the upside USDJPY touching the upper level of the converging triangle. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 99.09 to 99.80. As USDJPY is now trading at the extreme of its daily average range it would be interesting to see if the price action has enough energy left today to breach and sustain a move above the upper level of the converging triangle. A failure of an upside resistance break will open up the possibility of USDJPY trading a full average days range to the downside.

    Trade ideas
    1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. This morning strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as a daily average range has already been traded the conservative plays are to either wait for a pullback possibly to the 8 period moving averages before deciding to participate on the long side or allow for a break of the converging triangle top and trade the pullback by using a choice of one’s preferred entry techniques.

    2. However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside. Now that the price action is trading at trend line resistance shorting opportunities may arise.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support such as the 8 period moving averages could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support with a swing low failure being the tipping point.

  7. #157

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/13/2013


    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 13th November 20133

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down



    Comments

    Yesterday EURUSD after initially trading lower reversed its direction and closed above the range of the previous two days.

    Market open focus

    This morning after initially trading higher off the open EURUSD has now reversed the small gains it made. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3360 to 1.3520.

    Today’s scenarios

    1. EURUSD has traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where we are monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. A downside break could take EURUSD back into the previous two day’s trading range. The downside target for today is the area of yesterday’s low which is also in line the low of the projected maximum daily range at 1.3360.

    2. Alternatively if EURUSD can penetrate and sustain a move above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move up to the bottom of the previously broken upward sloping trend line. This is a move of some 70 odd pips which is well within the upper limit of the projected maximum daily range at 1.3520.

    Macro trade Ideas

    1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.

    The Macro Technical Targets

    The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 13th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short



    Comments

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded through the low of the 16th October. Although GBPUSD in the afternoon did manage to reverse some of its losses and closed and above the low of the 16th of October yesterdays move did however breach a prior swing low which effectively changes the daily trend from up to down.
    Market open focus
    This morning GBPUSD has broken down from its European open and trading at the lows of its overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5815 to 1.5980.

    Today’s scenarios

    1. As I write GBP is trading in a very tight opening range around the 1.5880 to 1.5905 area. A down side break will need to test and breach yesterdays low which is some 35 pips away. If a sustained break of yesterdays low is achieved a move down to the lower level of one average daily range at 1.5815 could become a possibility.

    2. Alternatively as GBPUSD is fairly extended from its averages there is potential for sideways to upside correction. The 8 period moving average and broken trend line support is some 115 pips away which is slightly above the upper limit of the projected maximum daily range of some 94 pips but this target is potentially achievable.

    Macro trade ideas

    1. Following yesterday’s breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.

    2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.

    Marco Technical Targets

    1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 13th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Comments

    Yesterday USDCHF traded down to the 8 period moving averages as the price action moved away from trend line resistance. However the price action has for the fourth day opened up and trading within last Thursday’s range.

    Market open focus

    This morning USDCHF has traded within 10 pips either side of the European opening price and well with last night’s overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 0.9117 to 0.9220.


    Today’s scenarios

    1. This morning USDCHF has traded down to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for longs to be placed. The target any such move will be the high of the 7th November which is slightly above one average daily range of about 70 pips.

    2. Alternatively the failure to break above the high of the four day range could lead to a breach of the 8 period moving averages. A potential move down could hit the target of the broken downward sloping trend line.

    Macro trade ideas

    1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
    Macro technical levels
    The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 13th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Comments

    Yesterday USDJPY traded up to but stalled at converging triangle resistance. This move places the price action well within a possible Fibonacci resistance shorting area.

    Market open focus

    This morning USDJPY broke lower from the open of the European session only to find support at the bottom of the overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price are 99.00 to 100.00.

    Today’s scenarios

    1. A breach and sustained move above trend line resistance puts in play a move to the upper level of the projected maximum daily range which is at the psychological 100 level.

    2. Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to the 8 period moving averages. This would entail a move of some 80 pips which is slightly higher than the average daily range which is just under 70 pips.

    Macro trade ideas

    1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. Yesterdays strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as the psychological 100 level is now in sight this barrier will have to be breached before both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels can be taken out.

    2. Alternatively downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area and trend line resistance could offer a catalyst that pushes USDJPY back to trend line support.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 13th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down



    Yesterday’s summary

    Yesterday Gold continued to trade lower following Thursdays break down from its trading range and the 8 period moving averages.
    Mark open focus
    This morning Gold broke higher from this morning’s European open. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 1259.00 to 1280.00.

    Today’s scenarios

    1. A breach of yesterdays low puts into play a potential move to the low of the 14th October. A move to this area is just above the average daily range.

    2. Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action becomes extended from the averages.

    Macro Trade ideas

    1. As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities with 28th June’s low at 1180.20 being the target.

    2. Alternatively if Gold can hold above the 14th October low there is a possibility that a higher low is printed and a move to the 8 period moving averages.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 13th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short



    Yesterday’s summary

    Yesterday WTI traded beneath the low of the 5th November as it broke down from the 8 period moving averages.

    Mark open focus

    This morning WTI broke higher from this morning’s European open. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 92.05 to 94.25.


    Today’s scenarios

    1. Following the breakdown from the 8 period moving averages we are monitoring a potential breach of yesterday’s low with the initial target being trend line support. However a move to this level will exceed the average daily range of $1.37.

    2. Alternatively a continued move above today’s open could see oil trade up to the 8 period moving averages.
    Macro Trade ideas
    1. WTI on a daily swing basis is trading with a negative trend and this is confirmed by the moving averages confirming this direction. The breach of the 6th November low will confirm the rejection of 8 period moving averages 93.50 resistance area. We are monitoring a potential move down to trend line support.

    2. However the weekly time frame remains positive. This might indication the current daily down trend is a large corrective move. As the price action is now trading within weekly Fibonacci support a sustained break above the 8 period moving averages could see WTI trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

    Macro technical levels

    110.50, 107.65, 100.65, 100.40, 98.20, 92.50, 91.20, 89.30, 85.60, 84.50, 77.25

  8. #158

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/14/2013


    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 14th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday EURUSD traded up to previously broken trend line support and closed above the 8 period moving averages.

    Market open focus
    This morning EURUSD is trading slightly lower from its overnight high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3397 to 1.3562.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where we are monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of yesterday’s trading range which is also in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.

    2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move of some 125 pips which is slightly above the projected average daily range of 100 pips.

    Macro trade Ideas
    1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.

    The Macro Technical Targets
    The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.



    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 14th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday GBPUSD had a strong bounce following its penetration of the low of the 16th October. The corrective rally took GBPUSD up to its averages and on its way penetrated a previously broken up trend line. GBPUSD finally closed at a fairly recently formed downward sloping trend line.
    Market open focus
    This morning GBPUSD is trading slightly lower from its overnight high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5960 to 1.6125.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. GBP is currently trading in between the averages and at a downward sloping trend line. The area of the averages is a potential value area where shorts could possibly be entered. As the average true range is some 100 pips a down side break has the potential to erase up to 50% of yesterdays corrective rally.

    2. Alternatively as GBPUSD has traded up to the averages, a break above them could see GBPUSD make an attempt at breaching the minor high pivot of the 6th November at 1.6117. This target is well inside the upper limit of today’s projected daily range.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.

    2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.

    Marco Technical Targets
    1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720




    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 14th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Comments
    Yesterday USDCHF traded down to the 8 period moving averages as the price action moved away from trend line resistance. However the price action has for the fifth day opened up and trading within last Thursday’s range.

    Market open focus
    This morning CHFUSD is trading higher from its overnight low and is bouncing off both the 8 period moving averages as previously broken trend line resistance. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9100 to 0.9191.


    Today’s scenarios
    1. This morning USDCHF is finding support at the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for longs to be placed. The ultimate target for any such move will be the high of the 7th November which is two average daily ranges away from the overnight low. Therefore a breach of yesterday’s high might be a more conservative and achievable target.

    2. Alternatively an intraday downside reversal could see USDCHF attempt to breach the low of the 7th November being the lower limit of the 5 day trading range.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages

    Macro technical levels
    The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 14th November 20133

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday USDJPY traded lower off converging triangle resistance as it corrected back down to the 8 period moving averages.

    Market open focus
    This morning USDJPY is trading higher from its overnight low as it attempts to break above trend line resistance. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.00 to 100.00.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. The strong open has had the result that USDJPY has already traded an average daily range. This leads to two possibilities for the long side. That this morning’s move will soon pause as it runs out of energy or this will be a stellar up day for this currency pair. As posted yesterday a breach and sustained move above trend line resistance puts into play a move to the upper level of the projected maximum daily range which is at the psychological 100 level.

    2. Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to the 8 period moving averages. This would entail a move of some 80 pips which is slightly higher than the average daily range which is just under 70 pips.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. This morning’s strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as the psychological 100 level is now in sight this barrier will have to be breached before both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels can be taken out.

    2. Alternatively downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area and trend line resistance could offer a catalyst that pushes USDJPY back to trend line support.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 14th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday Gold corrected higher as and closed just beneath the prior days open.
    Mark open focus
    This morning Gold is trading slightly higher from its overnight low. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1267.00 to 1287.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. Gold is trading up to the 8 period moving average‘s. We are monitoring the potential for a reversal that breaches yesterday’s low.

    2. Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action becomes extended from the averages.

    Macro Trade ideas
    1. As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities with 28th June’s low at 1180.20 being the target.

    2. Alternatively if Gold can hold above the 14th October low there is a possibility that a higher low is printed and a move to the 8 period moving averages.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 14th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday WTI attempted to trade back above the 8 period moving averages before finally reversing but ultimately closing slightly higher.

    Market open focus
    This morning WTU is trading higher from its overnight low. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 92.50 to 94.80.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. This morning WTI is trading back up to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for shorts to be added. We are monitoring a potential move down to the 12th November of 92.84 which is well with the lower limit of the average daily range.

    2. Alternatively a move above the 8 period moving averages could see WTI correct the majority of the 12th November break down.

    Macro Trade ideas
    1. WTI on a daily swing basis is trading with a negative trend and this is confirmed by the moving averages confirming this direction. The breach of the 6th November low will confirm the rejection of 8 period moving averages 93.50 resistance area. We are monitoring a potential move down to trend line support.

    2. However the weekly time frame remains positive. This might indication the current daily down trend is a large corrective move. As the price action is now trading within weekly Fibonacci support a sustained break above the 8 period moving averages could see WTI trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

    Macro technical levels
    110.50, 107.65, 100.65, 100.40, 98.20, 92.50, 91.20, 89.30, 85.60, 84.50, 77.25

  9. #159

    Default Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/15/2013

    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/15/2013

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 15th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday EURUSD once again traded up to but was unable to breach previously broken trend line support but did manage however to closed above the 8 period moving averages.

    Market open focus
    EURUSD has moved 44 pips lower from its overnight high and currently trading within a 20 pip congestion area and in the middle of yesterdays low to high range. I am currently monitoring a possible early morning up or downside break to the area of yesterdays previous high or low. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3388 to 1.3518.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where I am monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of the 13th November trading range which is also in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.

    2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move from yesterday’s low of some 170 pips which allowing for an average daily range of 100 pips might not be achievable.

    Macro trade Ideas
    1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.

    The Macro Technical Targets
    The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.



    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 15th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday after initially breaking down GBPUSD reversed off its lows and closed the day higher. In the process GBPUSD also penetrated and closed above the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
    Market open focus
    This morning GBPUSD had traded some 50 pips lower from its overnight high but this move has since retraced with the price action slightly beneath yesterdays high and above this morning’s open. Furthermore GBPUSD is currently trading above the 34 period moving averages.

    The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5996 to 1.6091.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades near the previous day’s high resistance area. As we have already had a good 110 plus move from yesterday’s low which exceeds the current average true range reading it would be interesting to see if there GBPUSD has enough energy left to trade higher but the possibility of a further 70 pips to the upside is traded today from the current price of 1.6085 should not be ruled out.

    2. However on the flip side GBPUSD has had a good up move. Therefore a failure to sustain a break above yesterday’s high could see GBPUSD once again breach trend line support but this time to the down side with the daily target being yesterday’s low at 1.5987.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.

    2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
    Marco Technical Targets
    1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 15th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday USDCHF reversed off it’s the previous day and its early morning low and traded substantially higher before collapsing at lunch time and paring most of its gains. However USDCHF did eventually close marginally higher.

    The price action effectively has been whipping around the 8 period moving averages and bouncing of trend line support for the past two days.

    Market open focus
    This morning USDCHF has been trading within a tight 15 pip congestion range and some 45 pips above yesterday afternoons low and 15 pips beneath yesterday’s high. A break above or beneath this congestion area should quickly lead to a move into previous day’s support and resistance.

    The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9113 to 0.9205.


    Today’s scenarios
    1. This morning USDCHF continues to trade around the 8 period moving averages which a potential value area is for longs to be placed. A break above this morning congestion area will quickly lead to move into the area of the previous day’s high being 0.9176/0.9188. This area my initial point of interest as the previous day’s high will need to broken so as to allow for an upside move to happen. Allowing for the average true range calculation there is potential for at least a 30 pip move from the current level at 0.9172.

    2. Alternatively break beneath this morning congestion zone puts in play a potential move to the previous days low.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
    Macro technical levels
    The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 15th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Yesterday’s summary
    Yesterday USDJPY had a good up day as it reversed off the previous day’s low. The resulting rally did not pull back at all during yesterday’s trading session. In the process USDJPY printed an above average daily range and more importantly closed above both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level.

    Market open focus
    This morning USDJPY is trading a little under 40 pips from the morning high after it experience its first substantial retracement of the past 24 hours.

    The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.50 to 100.65.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can break back into and then sustain a move above today’s high. Yesterdays stellar up move that finally penetrated the 100 level does put in question how much energy has been used up to break above the downward sloping trend line. However this morning minor retracement could possibly be followed by acceleration away from the 100 level. Allowing for the upside projection of 100.65 based upon the true range calculation potentially there is in the region of a further 50 pips available today on the long side. However it should be noted that this calculation is based off average projected range and daily ranges vary greatly day to day.

    2. Alternatively that the converging triangle high and the 100 level has been breached do not mean it is a simple case of up and don’t look back. USDJPY is still trading within a big Fibonacci resistance area and the break above both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 levels could potentially be a bear trap. A failure to therefore to sustain a move above the high that was printed this morning could lead to a potential reversal at least challenges the 100 level and then broken trend line resistance.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. Yesterday’s breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels .

    2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.

  10. #160

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/18/2013

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 15th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Down



    Yesterday’s summary
    Friday EURUSD once again traded up to but was unable to breach previously broken trend line support but continues to trade above the 8 period moving averages.

    Market open focus
    EURUSD had attempted to trade under Friday’s high but has so far been unable to sustain this move. I am currently monitoring an initial attempt to breach Friday’s high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3400 to 1.3580.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where I am monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of the 14th November trading range which is also just above the low of today’s projected trading range.

    2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move from today’s low of some 104 pips which is in line with the high of today’s projected daily range.

    Macro trade Ideas
    1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.

    The Macro Technical Targets
    The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 18th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Short



    Yesterday’s summary
    Friday GBPUSD initially traded lower off the previous day’s high only for the down move to stall and consolidate before finally breaking higher later in the London session. GBPUSD closed the minor swing high of the 6th November and above both the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.

    Market open focus
    This morning GBPUSD has breached Friday’s high but has just fallen back into the early morning range.

    The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.6040 to 1.6145.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades near the Friday’s high resistance area. The move so far off Friday’s low is some 97 pips. As the current average daily true range reading is around 100 pips it would be interesting to see if GBPUSD can break and sustain a move Friday’s high with the initial target being the large over head multi month trend line. A move to this level from the current price of 1.6130 would need a move of some 100 pips which might not be achievable today.

    2. However on the flip side GBPUSD has had a good up move. Therefore a failure to sustain a break above Friday’s high could see GBPUSD once again trade back to trend line support.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.

    2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.

    Marco Technical Targets
    1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 18th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Yesterday’s summary
    Friday USDCHF initially traded up and traded above the previous day’s high only for the price action to reverse aggressively beneath the previous session intraday low. However USDCHF did experience a bounce off its low and finally closed just beneath the 8 period moving averages

    Market open focus
    This morning USDCHF has traded some 44 pips lower off its morning high as it moves towards prior broken trend line support.

    The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9090 to 0.9190.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. Friday’s market negativity has continued into this morning’s session. If trend line can be breached today’s downside target is the 34 period moving averages which is slightly above the lower limit of the current daily average range.

    2. Alternatively support can hold above the prior broken trend line there is a possibility that USDCHF trades back up to the previous session high.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of 13th November high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.

    2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages

    Macro technical levels
    The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 15th November 2013

    DAILY OVERVIEW

    Trend : Up



    Yesterday’s summary
    Friday USDJPY opened strongly as it quickly broke above the previous sessions high. Apart from a minor early morning corrective pull back the upward momentum continued and at one point looked like breaching the 11th September swing high. This attempted however failed as USDJPY moderately corrected late in the London session

    Market open focus
    This morning USDJPY is trading a little under 50 pips lower from the Friday’s high which is also near to the previous session low area. We are monitoring this important intraday swing level for signs of support.

    The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.70 to 100.60.

    Today’s scenarios
    1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can find support and bounce off the previous session intraday low. This swing point is also in the area of the important 100 level with the current market price being 99.97. If support does hold I will monitor a possible up move at least to Friday’s high and then for USDJPY to make a further attempt at breaching the t11th September swing high level of 100.61. This move is well with the upper limit of average projected daily range.

    2. Alternatively the 100 level is offering some resistance. If the previous sessions low is breached there is a possibility that USDJPY trades back to the top of broken converging triangle. This move is within the lower limit of the average projected daily range.

    Macro trade ideas
    1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. The breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels .

    2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.

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