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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #281

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    The New York Open 24.11.2014.




    EURUSD



    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Down
    Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
    Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2373
    Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
    Intraday levels: Open: 1.2363, R1 1.2420, R2 1.2490, S1 1.2350, S2 1.2300




    GBPUSD



    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Down
    Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
    Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5635
    Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5675
    Intraday levels: Open: 1.5635, R1 1.5750, R2 1.5825, S1 1.5575, S2 1.5500




    USDJPY



    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Neutral
    Outlook: USDJPY is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
    Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.55
    Alternate scenario: Long above 118.00
    Intraday levels: Open: 117.92, R1 118.50, R2 119.00, S1 117.15, S2 116.55



    USDCHF



    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Up
    Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
    Probable scenario: Long above 0.9719
    Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
    Intraday levels: Open: 0.9725, R1 0.9735, R2 0.9785, S1 0.9680, S2 0.9630

  2. #282

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    The London open 24.11.2014.





    EURUSD



    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Down
    Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
    Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2385
    Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
    Intraday levels: Open: 1.2363, R1 1.2420, R2 1.2490, S1 1.2350, S2 1.2300




    GBPUSD



    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Down
    Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
    Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5635
    Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5675
    Intraday levels: Open: 1.5635, R1 1.5750, R2 1.5825, S1 1.5575, S2 1.5500




    USDJPY



    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Neutral
    Outlook: USDJPY is trading around the moving averages
    Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.55
    Alternate scenario: Long above 118.00
    Intraday levels: Open: 117.92, R1 118.50, R2 119.00, S1 117.15, S2 116.55



    USDCHF




    Time frame: 1 hour
    Trend: Up
    Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
    Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
    Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
    Intraday levels: Open: 0.9725, R1 0.9735, R2 0.9785, S1 0.9680, S2 0.9630

  3. #283

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    ACFX Technical report 25.11.2014.



    EURUSD and AUDUSD bounce off their lows



    Encouraging news from Germany which saw an improvement in business sentiment helped EURUSD to extend the gains it made on Monday into the New York session.

    However an intraday top was put in place during the Tokyo session as EURUSD backed away from the 1.2450 level.

    Legal issues on Monday came to the fore as the head of the German Bundesbank fired a warning salvo across the bows of the ECB by claiming that legal obstacles needed to be overcome first before the printing presses could start to print fresh Euro notes that could be used to buy Government bond.

    Jens Weidmanns comments have now put a question mark over ECB president Mr. Mario Draghi plans to inject life into Europe’s stagnant economies. This news helped EURUSD trade up from its two year low at the 1.2358 level.

    EURJPY traded higher throughout the London session and this continued into the New York session. A top in EURJPY was finally put in overnight during Tokyo trading at 147.39.

    This move into the 147.39 level has now put EURJPY within touching distance of the 149.12 level being the 6 year high that was put in place during last week’s trading.

    However late into the Tokyo session EURJPY has experienced a corrective intraday pull back

    USDJPY on Monday rose throughout the London session and put in an intraday high of 117.48 early in New York trading.

    The gains extended into the Tokyo session with USDJPY at one point hitting the 118.57 level and then swiftly reversed and corrected abruptly downwards. As I write USDJPY is now trading at the 117.90 level.

    Following the announcement of a massive expansion of the stimulus program by the Bank of Japan USDJPY has come under considerable pressure which has led to this currency pair hitting seven year high at 118.98.

    However the rapid drop in value of the Yen has led to some official sources to express misgivings with the Japanese Minister of Finance to state that the rise in USDJPY was “too rapid”.

    Furthermore during Tuesday’s Asia session Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda the Bank of Japan Governor said that although the fall in the value of the Yen was positive for exporters there would be a negative impact on households.

    These concerns stem from the fact that Japan has to import food products and Japanese manufacturers have purchase from abroad raw materials. In both cases these commodities become more expensive as the Yen depreciates.

    The minutes of the last Bank of Japan (31 October) meeting where released on Tuesday reported that four of the BOJ nine members opposed the expansion of the quantitative easing program over fears that it could impact on the government’s ability to finance the enormous public deficit.

    The Aussie Dollar traded lower throughout Monday and this move continued well into Tuesdays Asia trading. This move lower was not halted until AUDUSD tested the 0.8565 level being last week’s low and is currently trading at 0.8595.

    However this is well off the 0.8723 level that was put in on Friday off the back of China’s surprise move to cut interest rates.

    There was some euphoria with regards the interest rate cut as China is Australia’s largest export market. However reality set in on Monday over fears over economic sluggishness that has hit Asia.

  4. #284

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    Detailed technical outlook



    EURUSD




    RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
    1.2450 1.2500 1.2360 1.2260




    Yesterday’s move lower did test but failed to breach the 1.2357 level being the low of November 7. This led to a good rally taking place during Monday’s London and New York trading sessions.

    Although it would now appear that on a daily chart basis that EURUSD is attempting to put in a double bottom the down move has been so aggressive and that a great deal more confirmation is required before I can safely say that the daily trend is turning from down to up.

    On an intraday 1 hour basis EURUSD continues to trade in a down trend following the breach of the 1.2500 area which equates to the swing low of November 19.

    A continuation of the trend lower could take EURUSD to support levels of 1.2360 and then 1.2260.

    Alternatively a breach and 1 hour close above the 1.2450 level which coincides with the current swing high would technically change the trend on a swing basis to up.

    The upside targets are 1.2500 and 1.2570.





    GBPUSD



    RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
    1.5715 1.5740 1.5675 1.5625



    GBPUSD continues to trade in a strong aggressive down trend however the price action over the past two weeks has been in consolidation mode.

    There are aspects of a possible daily double bottom forming around the 1.5590 level. It would be of interest to see if GBPUSD can kick higher from the current level and enter a period of upside correction that takes the price action into major daily resistance at the 1.5800 area.

    The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD is currently experiencing some choppiness as the price action trades above the key 1.5600 level.

    In terms of swings the 1 hour trend has been positive since the breach and close above the 1.5675 swing high.

    A continuation of the move higher could possibly take GBPUSD up to the 1.5715 and 1.5740 levels.

    Alternatively a successful test of the 1.5675 support level could see GBPUSD trade down to the 1.5625 level.

    This (1.5625) level equates to the area of the prior swing low. A breach of this level would therefore effectively change the intraday trend from up to down.




    USDJPY




    RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
    118.60 119.00 117.35 116.30






    Tokyo continues to be the centre of a great deal of economic news and this is driving the action on USDJPY.

    USDJPY has had a meteoric rise however the price action over the past few days has been stuck stubbornly beneath the 118.98 which if the recent high.

    Dropping down to the 1 hour chart USDJPY continues to trade in an intraday up trend however the bulls might have concerns that this up move is running out of steam at least for the time being.

    The reason for this is that it might appear that USDJPY is attempting to put in place a near term top and a lower high swing.

    If the upside bias is to continue confirmation of this is required by USDJPY breaching the 118.60 level with any follow through resulting in a test of the 119.00 high.

    Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 117.35 support level. A breach of this level will technically change the trend from up to down as the 117.35 levels corresponds with the most recent higher low swing.




    USDCHF




    RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
    0.9730 0.9745 0.9660 0.9550




    Over the past few trading sessions USDCHF has experienced a text book pullback and bounce higher as the price action traded within a daily uptrend.

    On an intraday basis USDCHF is trading within an intraday up trend. The current upside targets for USDCHF being the 0.9730 and 0.9745.

    Alternatively a breach and close beneath the 0.9660 support level would technically change the trend to down.

    Further downside targets are 0.9605 and 0.9550.






    XAUUSD




    RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
    1208.00 1222.00 1192.50 1186.50




    Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.

    This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.

    Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.

    However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.

    On a 1 hour basis XAUUSD is technically trading in an uptrend on a 1 hour swing basis with the current upside targets being 1208.00 and then 1222.00.

    Alternatively a successful test of the 1192.50 level would breach the prior higher low swing and technically change the trend to down.

    The down side targets for XAUUSD being 1186.50 and 1181.00.




    OILUSD



    RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
    77.00 77.90 75.40 74.75




    Oil has over the past few days traded off its yearly lows as the market awaits news from OPEC and the plans for future production levels.

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart is showing signs of weakness as the price action has now breached a prior higher low at the 75.84 level and put in a lower high swing.

    A continuation of the move lower could see Oil test the 74.40 level and then go on further to test the 74.75 and 74.15 levels.

    Alternatively an agreement on production quotas could see Oil test the 77.00 level being the current 1 hour swing high and then go on to test the 77.90 level.

  5. #285

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    ACFX London opening technical report - 26.11.2014





    What news will drive the markets today

    With the USA heading into the Thanks Giving holiday it would not be unexpected to see the markets experience irregular volatility and low liquidity. However there are some important news releases that are coming out today which could have some impact on todays tradng direction.

    We start off early in the European market with the UK's release of the Second Estitmate GDP numbers. The market is looking for no change at 0.7% with a number lower than this possibly adding downside pressure once again on the embattled Pound.

    Across the Atlantic at 1:30pm we have the latest release from the Census Bureau of the Core Durable goods number. The market is looking for a beat of the prior report of -0.1% with a consensus estimate of 0.5%.

    Later in the afternoon we have the important New Home Sales release again frorm the Census Bureau with traders looking for a continuation of the positive trend. The expectations are for an actual of 471K against the prior of 467K.

    In the evening Kiwi watches will be monitoring the news wires for the latest release of the New Zealand Trade Balance. The market expects an improvement of the countries trade balance sheet with estimates of tonights release coming in at -645M against a prior of -1350M.

  6. #286

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    www.acfxblog.com





    Detailed technical outlook





    EURUSD




    The macro technical view

    Over the past two trading sessions EURUSD has had somewhat of a mini rally with the price action yesterday closing well above the highs of Monday’s candle.

    There is a definite feel that a double forming is forming on the daily chart. However as we all know there is no such thing as a definite in trading. Therefore caution should always be exercised as price patterns have a nasty habit of failing.

    If however this double top formation does pan out then realistically aim for the highs of the last swing pivot at 1.2600. If this move does gather steam then a price target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 comes into play.

    A failure of EURUSD to trade higher could see a retest of the 1.2360 level and a serious attempt at the 1.2050 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing low.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend. The upside target for today being 1.2500 and then 1.2570.

    Alternatively a move lower could see EURUSD initial test the 1.2445 intraday support level with a breach of the 1.2400 level changing the trend from up to down. Additional downside target can be found at 1.2360 level however the possibility of this level being hit today may be limited as such a move will be outside the parameters of the typical trading range.





    GBPUSD





    The macro technical view

    GBPUSD over the past few weeks or so continues to trade above the key 1.5600 support level with the price action consolidating within a 150 pip range.

    The price action in fact is beginning to form a bottoming triangle formation. This is especially clear on the 4 hour time frame.

    It remains to be seen however if this pattern is part of a bullish reversal pattern or nothing more than a precursor of an ABC bearish continuation pattern.

    As mentioned in yesterdays post a move higher could see GBPUSD target the 1.5800 resistance level.

    On the other side of the coin a continuation of the down trend would have the bears aiming their sights once again on the 1.5590 level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD continues to be bullish with the price action as I write testing the 1.5715 resistance level. The next upside targets at 1.5740 and then 1.5785.

    Alternatively a successful test of the 1.5690 support level would technical change the trend from up to down.
    The downside targets if GBPUSD was to breach support being 1.5640 and 1.5360.





    USDJPY




    The macro technical view

    USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.

    In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The 1 hour view has USDJPY trading in an intraday uptrend. However there are signs of negative momentum coming into play following the formation of a lower high.

    Furthermore as I write USDJPY is attempting to test the 117.65 level being the area of the prior higher low. Although this level has been breached I would like first to see a 1 hour close beneath this level for confirmation that the trend has turned from up to down.

    The current upside targets are 118.30 and 118.60.

    Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 117.35 and 117.05 support levels.


    USDCHF




    The macro technical view

    The daily chart has now thrown up a question mark about the strength of the current trend in USDCHF with the failure of the price action to trade above the 0.9745 level putting focuses on the bull’s willingness to stay the course.

    Could it be that the past couple of week’s price action is now signaling a near term top?

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the breach the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.

    A continuation of the move with a successful test of the 0.9630 level could put into play a move to the 0.9605 level.

    Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF test the 0.9660 level with a further move above the 0.9700 changing the 1 hour trend to up.


    AUDUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday AUDUSD resumed its downward course as the price action penetrated the 0.8540 level.

    Switching over to a monthly chart the move down would appear that a large head and shoulders scenario is potentially playing out with the 0.8065 level now is targeted by the bears.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Dropping down to the 1 hour time frame a continuation of the move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.8530 and then the 0.8510 level,

    Alternatively and as posted yesterday a change of intraday trend from down to up will happen if AUDUSD can successfully test the 0.8725 level.

    As this level is way off from the current price action I am monitoring the potential for possible double bottom and higher low forming.

    This should mean that AUDUSD will trade above the 0.8600 resistance level and then target R2 at 0.8650.


    XAUUSD



    The macro technical view

    As posted yesterday Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.

    This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.

    Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.

    However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On a 1 hour basis XAUUSD is technically trading in an uptrend on a 1 hour swing basis however during yesterday’s trading we did have an unsuccessful test of the 1192.50 level.

    A close beneath this level would technically change the 1 hour trend to down.

    The current upside targets for XAUUSD being 1203.00 and then 1208.00.

    Alternatively a successful test of the 1192.50 level could propel Gold down to 1186.50 and 1181.00.




    OIL



    The macro technical view

    With this week’s OPEC meeting happening tomorrow the question of will this club decide to cut or not to cut production is dominating the current price action.

    On the daily chart we did get an upside correction however the price action over the past two days has paired most of the gains that had been made.

    No agreement on quotas could see Oil test the 73.20 level being the most recent isolated low.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to show signs of weakness with the piece action currently testing the 73.85 support level.

    Further downside momentum could see Oil target the 73.20 level and then the 71.50 level.

    Alternatively an agreement on production quotas could see Oil test the 76.55 level being the current 1 hour swing high and then go on to test the 77.90 level.

  7. #287

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    London opening technical report 27.11.2014.







    EURUSD




    The macro technical view

    The bullish feel to the bigger time frames continued yesterday with the double bottom scenario playing out on the 4 hour and daily charts.

    Yesterday’s daily candle closed above the high of the range of the prior day’s range the momentum is currently to the upside the medium term upside target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 still a realistic possibility.

    I have shorter term upside targets at the 1.2615 and 1.2770 being prior swing pivots.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend with price action currently trading just above the 1.2500 support level.

    Today’s intraday upside targets are 1.2570 and 1.2600.

    Alternatively a breach of the 1.2500 level could see EURUSD target the 1.2445 level.

    A breach of this level would mean that the price action would have traded under the prior swing low and therefore technically changes the 1 hour trend to down

    This would open up the possibility of a mover down to the 1.2400 level.




    GBPUSD




    The macro technical view

    The mini revival for Cable has pushed GBPUSD to the lofty heights of the 1.5800 big figure.

    Yesterday I wrote about the potential of GBPUSD breaking above its 4 hour bullish triangle formation. This duly happened during yesterday’s trading.

    With the 1.5800 level in touching distance the next obvious target level will become the 1.5835.

    However the possibility does still remain that the bulls are being set up for a trap as a bearish ABC continuation pattern unfolds.

    A move lower would aim to target the 1.5630 and 1.5590 levels which coincide with priors 4 hour swing low points.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD did hit the initial target of 1.5800 with eyes now being focused on the potential move above this daily resistance point and for a move higher to 1.5835 and then 1.5920.

    Alternatively a breach of the 1.5785 level opens up the possibility of a move down to 1.5740 and the 1.5715.

    A successful test of the 1.5675 level would breach the prior higher low and change the trend from up to down.




    USDJPY



    The macro technical view

    As posted yesterday USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.

    In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.

    The 4 hour trend is now also looking bearish with the price action now painting a lower low, lower high and lower low sequence.

    It remains to be seen if this price pattern is the precursor of a tipping point that propels USDJPY down to the 117.00 where we have support coming in off the back of 4 hour swing high pivots.

    However the scenario of a potential bullish ABC pattern does also exist and traders will need to watch out for possible upside breakaways from the current 4 hour down trend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Taking a look at the 1 hour time frame USDJPY has now breached and is trading under the 117.65 level which coincided with a higher low swing. This has effectively changed the trend from up to down.

    USDJPY as I write is testing the 117.35 level. A continuation lower could see USDJPY trade down to the 117.05 and then the 116.30 levels.

    Alternatively a bounce off support could potentially see USDJPY test the 117.65 level with a continuation and breach of the 118.30 level technically changing the trend from down to up.




    USDCHF




    The macro technical view

    Yesterday I asked the question “is USDCHF” looking toppish”?

    Well going by the price action over the past three days and the inability to climb above the 0.9745 does seem to confirm this scenario.

    If USDCHF can now trade under the 0.9530 level, the price action would have painted a lower high and lower low swing. This would technically change the daily trend from up to down for the first time in what has been a very long period of weakness for the Swiss Franc.

    The intraday technical outlook


    As posted yesterday the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.

    The price targets of 0.9630 and 0.9605 where both hit during yesterday’s trading

    With the price action now hovering above the 0.9605 levels and successful penetration of support would open up the possibility of a move down to the 0.9550 and 0.9530 levels.

    Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9630.

    A successful test of the 0.9665 level would breach the prior lower high and turn the 1 hour trend from down to up.


    AUDUSD





    The macro technical view

    This morning’s positive and unexpected market data release has propelled AUDUSD higher during the Tokyo and early into the European sessions.

    However the daily trend does look horribly down and to try and bet on a bottom being put in off one piece of good data could be a little premature if one was to look at the strength of the daily down trend.

    Yesterday I wrote about the monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level.

    The possibility of this happening does not go away.

    For the longer term bulls to gain any confidence in a rival of the Aussie Dollar we really need to see a breach of a lower high swing on the 4 hour chart.

    With the current last isolated 4 hour high coming in at the 0.8725 level for this to happen needs a lot more buyers of the Australian Dollar to enter into the market.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The 1 hour chart has today given us our lower high breach with the 0.8565 broken during the Australian session.

    Confirmation that the 1 hour up trend is in good health would require the formation of a higher lower and for the price action to stay above the 0.8480 level.

    The current upside targets are 0.8650 and 0.8695.

    Alternatively a test of the 0.8600 support level could see AUDUSD test the 0.8565 and 0.8535 levels.

    A breach of the 0.8480 level would change the 1 hour trend from up to down.



    GOLD




    The macro technical view

    As per my prior posts Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.

    This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.

    Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.

    However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.

    Looking at the weekly time frame this week’s price action has been trading within the previous week’s price action.

    A move away from the 1209.00 and 1175.00 being last week’s candle range should give us more clues about the longer term price momentum for Gold.

    The 4 hour medium term chart is still trading in an uptrend. As long as the price action can hold above the 1174.50 level being the last isolated 4 hour swing low the bullish scenario remains intact.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On a 1 hour basis the breach of the 1192.50 level has changed the trend for XAUUSD technically from up to down.

    The current downside targets are 1186.50 and 1181.00.

    Alternatively a test and close above the 1203.00 level being the prior isolated 1 hour swing high would turn the trend back to up.

    We have a further upside target at the 1208.00 level


    OIL




    The macro technical view

    The OPEC is finally here. As mentioned in my introduction the Oil news is not that straight forward with geopolitical issues dominating and the impact of USA domestic production causing a glut in the market.

    I know it is rather difficult but let’s discount the news as it is very hard to trade off secret meetings and handshakes behind closed doors and just stick to technical’s.

    If you pick any time frame from the 4 hour up to the monthly all you see is a strong down trend.

    It is fairly obvious that at the present moment that trying to pick a medium to long term bullish argument is a very hard task.

    The longer term level I am looking at is the 67.00 level which is the 2010 low. This being potentially a longer term price target and place where possibility of support coming into the market.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to be very bearish with 1 hour line of control at 74.45and downside targets at the 71.50 and 69.50 levels.

    Alternatively upside resistance can be found at the 73.3 and 73.60 levels.


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  8. #288

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    GBPUSD has been trading very strongly and the pair might continue to do so, there is no very considerable resistance for it at the moment.

  9. #289

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    ACFX technical report – USDCAD 28.11.2014



    What awaits USDCAD after the release of the GDP report?

    At 1.30pm today we get the latest release from Statistics Canada of the month on month GDP report.

    This report measures the change in the inflation adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the country.

    With Canada being a major hydrocarbon producer and with OPEC deciding not to cut production in will be interesting to see how this will affect the GDP numbers.

    The prior report can in at -0.1% with the consensus forecast expected to coming in at 0.4%.

    With the USDCAD trading in a strong up trend lower than expected numbers will only fuel the continued depreciation of the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar.

    The technical review

    USDCAD is trading in a daily uptrend. This can be clearly identified by a series of higher high and higher low swings.

    The price action has recently experienced a controlled correction that has actually turned the moving averages negative.

    However this price action did not come anyway near to penetrating the 1.1120 level.

    This level is the areas of the last isolated daily swing low of the October 29.

    The move down and subsequent bounce came off an area of Fibonacci support.

    As the trend is up my initial long target is 1.1467 being the area of the November 5 swing high.

    The next target point for USDCAD is 1.1725 being the weekly high of July 5.

    A failure of USDCAD to sustain its upward momentum could be followed by a penetration of the 1.1190 level being the November 21 swing low would technically change the trend from up to down.

    This would open up the possibility of a move down to the 1.0900 being the September 19 swing low






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  10. #290

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    ACFX London opening technical report – 28.11.2014





    EURUSD



    The macro technical view

    The bullish double bottom scenario could maybe put to the test today if we have disappointing CPI numbers.

    Combined with the OPEC decision which is also deflationary are probably the main reasons why we had negative trading yesterday.

    From a weekly perspective if we can get a good up close today the overall picture of a bottom forming is reinforced.

    However as every major pull back on the 4 hour and daily charts has resulted in an opportunity to short the Euro it would not be a surprise if we got more of the same.

    Popping up to the monthly chart we do have monthly support coming in at around the 1.2200 level. This comes off the back of a monthly trend line.

    This level now becomes an obvious target for the shorts and a magnate for EURUSD to drop down to.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday this morning we had our first unsuccessful test of the 1.2445 level. This price point is the current line of control and higher low swing point. A 1 hour close beneath this level would confirm that the trend has changed from up to down.

    However as long as we can stay above the 1.2445 level the 1 hour trend points upwards with the current price target being 1.2500 and 1.2570.

    Alternatively a breach of the 1.2445 level could see EURUSD test the 1.2400 and then the 1.2360 levels.





    GBPUSD





    The macro technical view

    At one point yesterday GBPUSD managed to trade at the 1.5825 level in what has turned out to be a decent rally for the pound.

    Having broken above its 4 hour triangle I am now monitoring the possibility that GBPUSD can put in a higher low or at least a double bottom above the 1.5600 level.

    In terms of trying to assess a much bigger picture one really needs to take a look at the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high and is now trading at the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.

    We have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?

    Therefore for all the negative sentiment that surrounds the Pound right now, the formation of higher highs on the 4 hour and daily charts would be the first sign that this large macro long play is about to begin.

    These kinds of trades need big stops and big pockets to finance them but a return to a macro uptrend has a target price of 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.

    Back to reality and the current daily momentum is down. If nothing changes then the current daily targets of
    1.5630 and 1.5590 levels which coincide with priors 4 hour swing low points are still valid.

    The intraday technical outlook


    The pound today is trading lower and as I speak is testing the 1.5715 support level.

    A continuation of the move down that successfully breaches the 1.5675 level would change the trend from up to down.

    The current upside targets are 1.5740 and 1.5785.

    Alternative downside targets are 1.5675 and 1.5645.


    USDJPY




    The macro technical view

    Yesterday USDJY continued to trade lower however following the disappointing inflation data and concerns that Japan has to implement even more stimulus has this morning pushed USDJPY higher.

    On the weekly chart I am interested to see if USDJPY can trade above the 118.98 level being last week’s high.

    Down to the 4 hour chart it would appear that the bullish ABC scenario is now in play.

    This puts into focus a retest of this year’s high being the 119.00 level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday USDJPY has this morning tested and been repelled by the 118.30 level which is my line of control.

    As long USDJPY can continue to trade under this level the 1 hour bias is down.

    The downside targets are 117.65 and then 117.35.

    Alternatively a break above the 118.30 level could see USDJPY test the 118.60 and 119.00 levels.



    USDCHF



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday’s higher close has had the effect of creating triangle consolidation pattern around the price action on the 4 hour and daily charts.

    The question does continue to be is USDCHF now toppish however with the rejection of lower prices yesterday and this morning bullish open the focus does somewhat return to upside.

    With the weekly time frame looking bullish trying to find areas of resistance and potential price targets forces me to take a look at the weekly and monthly time frames.

    The 0.9915 and 0.9970 levels do offer obvious price points which are created by weekly and monthly swing lows and highs.

    Alternatively a downside triangle break has an initial target at the 0.9530 level.

    A breach and daily close under this level would change the daily trend from up to down.

    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning we have had a 1 hour close above the 0.9665 level which is the intraday line of control.

    Technically this changes the intraday trend from down to up.

    However not one to jump the gun I want to see how USDCHF now pulls back.

    What is important is if USDCHF can form a higher low. This will then become a base that propels USDCHF and into a new intraday uptrend.

    The upside targets are 0.9700 and then 0.9730.

    Alternative downside targets are 0.9630 and 0.9605.


    AUDUSD



    The macro technical view

    There is a saying that one swallow does not make a summer. This can be applied to the Aussie Dollar with one piece of good data not being enough to keep the AUDUSD trading higher.

    The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The 1 hour chart continues to point up but only just.

    AUDUSD is now trading very near to the 0.8480 level which is the intraday line of control.

    A breach and close of this level would turn the intraday trend from up to down.

    The current upside targets are 0.8535 and 0.8635.

    Alternatively a test of the 0.8480 support level could see AUDUSD test the 0.8325 and 0.8075 levels.

    These levels are a bit away from the current price action. The reason for this is that there are no recent 1 hour swing points to target.

    The only points I can really target are off the weekly time frame. However one could also use significant numbers such as 00 and 50 levels and pivot points.


    GOLD



    The macro technical view

    I mentioned in my previous posts that Gold had entered into area of Fibonacci resistance.

    It would now appear that this has been targeted by some traders who are now attempting to push XAUUSD back into a daily down trend.

    A key level to watch today is the 1175.00 level which coincides with an area just beneath last week’s low.

    The 4 hour medium term chart is still trading in an uptrend. As long as the price action can hold above the 1174.50 level being the last isolated 4 hour swing low the bullish scenario remains intact.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On a 1 hour basis the breach of the 1192.50 level has changed the trend for XAUUSD technically from up to down.

    The current downside targets are 1181.00 and 1174.50.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1186.50 and 1192.50.



    OIL



    The macro technical view

    What a surprise. OPEC did not cut production and the net effect was both Light Sweet Crude and Brent dropping like a stone.

    In terms of long term technical’s nothing has really changed from yesterday with my 67.00 target for Light Sweet Crude now in touching distance.

    There are no real arguments for the long side just yet with the momentum from 4 hour and up being so bear ugly.

    Let’s see if we get any signs of life at the 67.00 2010 low level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday on an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to be very bearish with 1 hour line of control at 74.45.

    The 71.50 and 69.50 downside targets have been hit. All eyes are now on the 67.00 level

    Alternatively if bulls are brave enough to show their face we may get a bounce back to 69.50.


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