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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #291

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    ACFX London opening technical report – 03.12.2014



    EURUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday EURUSD resumed is downward slide as it took out intraday support levels of 1.2445, 1.2420 and 1.2400.

    We will soon have our answer to the possible double bottom scenario with a breach of the 1.2360 level confirming that the down trend in higher time frames is intact.

    As mentioned in prior posts we do have monthly support coming in at around the 1.2200 level. This comes off the back of a monthly trend line.

    This level now becomes an obvious target for the shorts and a magnate for EURUSD to drop down to.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2420 level changed the 1 hour trend back to down with the line of control now at the 1.2505 level.

    The downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2240.

    Alternatively upside targets for today are at the 1.2400and 1.2420 levels.





    GBPUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower as it broke down through 1.5715 and 1.5675 supports levels.

    Cable is now currently trading around the 1.5645 support level.

    The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.

    However as mentioned yesterday I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.

    This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.

    Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.

    However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.

    This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.

    As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?

    With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.

    The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.

    A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5765 level.

    The intraday downside targets are at the 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.

    Alternative a upside resistance comes in at 1.5675 and 1.5715.


    USDJPY



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday USDJPY broke above the 119.00 level. With this level broken the 120.00 level comes into focus.

    All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.

    On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.

    The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.85 level.

    Upside areas of interest being the 119.50 and 119.75 levels.

    Alternatively down side levels are 119.00 and 118.60.


    USDCHF



    The macro technical view

    USDCHF is this morning trading testing the 0.9730 high. With USDJPY having broken above its 119.00 level there is a possibility that USDCHF follows suit.

    The 4 hour chart has now committed to the long side by painting a higher low and higher high swing and it looks like the daily time frame will soon joint this club.

    A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9615.

    The current upside targets are 0.9745 and 0.9800.

    Alternative downside targets are 0.9700 and 0.9665.


    AUDUSD



    The macro technical view

    As mentioned in my introduction the latest GDP numbers have added to the gloom surrounding the Australian Dollar.

    AUDUSD is currently trading at the 0.8400 level having this morning breached the 0.8415 support level.

    Today’s move now means that the 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.

    The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.

    In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.

    Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.

    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is trading in a intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8470.

    This morning’s AUDUSD is testing the 0.8400 support level.

    The current downside targets are 0.8400 and 0.8350.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8415 and 0.8470.


    GOLD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday Gold traded down to the 1192.50 support level.

    At these levels buyers have coming into the market to push XAUUSD higher.

    The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.

    The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.

    I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.

    On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 level.

    Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1221.15

    Alternatively downside targets are 1192.50 and 1189.30.


    OIL



    The macro technical view

    Oil continues to trade under the 69.60 resistance level.

    However the pullback from the test of this level was not as aggressive as expected with the price action now finding support at 67.00.

    All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish.

    As mentioned in prior posts it is now a case of trying to identify key levels where the price action could bounce off.

    Focus now falls on the 63.65 level which was the last support level.

    If the price action can form a higher low above this level preferably on the 4 hour chart there is the possibility that we get a much stronger correction which takes Oil up to the 73.60 level

    However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 69.60 level.

    A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.

    Current support is at the 67.00 level.

    Alternatively successful test of the 69.60 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 73.60 level.


    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

  2. #292

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    ACFX London opening technical report – 03.12.2014



    EURUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday EURUSD resumed is downward slide as it took out intraday support levels of 1.2445, 1.2420 and 1.2400.

    We will soon have our answer to the possible double bottom scenario with a breach of the 1.2360 level confirming that the down trend in higher time frames is intact.

    As mentioned in prior posts we do have monthly support coming in at around the 1.2200 level. This comes off the back of a monthly trend line.

    This level now becomes an obvious target for the shorts and a magnate for EURUSD to drop down to.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2420 level changed the 1 hour trend back to down with the line of control now at the 1.2505 level.

    The downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2240.

    Alternatively upside targets for today are at the 1.2400and 1.2420 levels.





    GBPUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower as it broke down through 1.5715 and 1.5675 supports levels.

    Cable is now currently trading around the 1.5645 support level.

    The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.

    However as mentioned yesterday I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.

    This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.

    Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.

    However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.

    This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.

    As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?

    With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.

    The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.

    A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5765 level.

    The intraday downside targets are at the 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.

    Alternative a upside resistance comes in at 1.5675 and 1.5715.


    USDJPY



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday USDJPY broke above the 119.00 level. With this level broken the 120.00 level comes into focus.

    All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.

    On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.

    The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.85 level.

    Upside areas of interest being the 119.50 and 119.75 levels.

    Alternatively down side levels are 119.00 and 118.60.


    USDCHF



    The macro technical view

    USDCHF is this morning trading testing the 0.9730 high. With USDJPY having broken above its 119.00 level there is a possibility that USDCHF follows suit.

    The 4 hour chart has now committed to the long side by painting a higher low and higher high swing and it looks like the daily time frame will soon joint this club.

    A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9615.

    The current upside targets are 0.9745 and 0.9800.

    Alternative downside targets are 0.9700 and 0.9665.


    AUDUSD



    The macro technical view

    As mentioned in my introduction the latest GDP numbers have added to the gloom surrounding the Australian Dollar.

    AUDUSD is currently trading at the 0.8400 level having this morning breached the 0.8415 support level.

    Today’s move now means that the 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.

    The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.

    In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.

    Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.

    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is trading in a intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8470.

    This morning’s AUDUSD is testing the 0.8400 support level.

    The current downside targets are 0.8400 and 0.8350.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8415 and 0.8470.


    GOLD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday Gold traded down to the 1192.50 support level.

    At these levels buyers have coming into the market to push XAUUSD higher.

    The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.

    The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.

    I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.

    On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 level.

    Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1221.15

    Alternatively downside targets are 1192.50 and 1189.30.


    OIL



    The macro technical view

    Oil continues to trade under the 69.60 resistance level.

    However the pullback from the test of this level was not as aggressive as expected with the price action now finding support at 67.00.

    All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish.

    As mentioned in prior posts it is now a case of trying to identify key levels where the price action could bounce off.

    Focus now falls on the 63.65 level which was the last support level.

    If the price action can form a higher low above this level preferably on the 4 hour chart there is the possibility that we get a much stronger correction which takes Oil up to the 73.60 level

    However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 69.60 level.

    A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.

    Current support is at the 67.00 level.

    Alternatively successful test of the 69.60 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 73.60 level.


    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

  3. #293

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    ACFX London opening technical report – 05.12.2014




    EURUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday Super Mario decided to sit on his hands with respect to QE and this sent EURUSD higher.

    This afternoon however we have the NFP being released.

    A strong number will most likely push EURUSD down in the direction of the significant monthly trend line support that comes in at around the 1.2200 level.

    In terms of other times frames the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts even after yesterdays minor rally are still trading in a technical down trend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2325 level changed the 1 hour trend back to up with the line of control now at the 1.2275 level.

    The upside targets for today are at the 1.2400 and 1.2445 levels.

    Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2325



    GBPUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday was an indifferent day for Cable as GBPUSD traded around its open and then closed slightly lower.

    On the 4 hour and daily charts we are seeing a great deal of consolidation as the price action holds above the 1.5585 low.

    The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.

    However as mentioned in prior posts I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.

    This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.

    Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.

    However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.

    This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.

    As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?

    With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.

    The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.

    A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5725 level.

    The intraday support is at 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.

    Alternative upside resistance comes in at 1.5645 and 1.5675.



    USDJPY



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday we got the push I was watching for above the 120.00 level.

    However traders did push USDJPY close to the 119.30 support level in what was a bout of corrective profit taking however during the Tokyo session USDJPY has resumed its upward course once more.

    All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.

    On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.

    For the time however with the upside momentum being so strong it is probably unwise to be brave enough to get in front of what has become a USDJPY juggernaut.

    The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level.

    Upside areas of interest being the 120.50 and 120.75 levels.

    Alternatively down side levels are 119.30 and 119.00.



    USDCHF



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday USDCHF experienced a strong pull back as it broke down through the 0.9730 and 0.9630 levels.

    Support finally came in at the 0.9650 level.

    Both the 4 hour and daily charts has now committed to the long side by painting a higher high swings.

    The weekly time frame will also turned positive if we get a move above the 0.9845 level.

    A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9650.

    The current upside targets are 0.9730 and 0.9800.

    Alternative downside targets are 0.9690 and 0.9650.



    AUDUSD



    The macro technical view

    With a break beneath the 0.8400 level becoming a reality has there ever been a case of ground hog day being more applicable to a currency pair then AUDUSD.

    All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.

    The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.

    In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.

    Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require some basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.

    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8415.

    The current downside targets are 0.8350 and 0.8315.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8400 and 0.8445.


    GOLD



    The macro technical view

    Gold has traded in a relatively small range over the past two business days with the price action confined within the 1203.00 and 1215.00 levels.

    The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.

    The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.

    I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.

    On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 levels.

    Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1215.00

    Alternatively support comes in at 1203.00 and 1192.50


    OIL



    The macro technical view

    As mentioned in yesterday’s post the 68.00 area has now become a significant area of intraday resistance with the 68.20 level becoming the line in the sand.

    The bulls really need to get a close above this level if the upside momentum is to be maintained.

    All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish however the 4 hour time frame is attempting to paint a bullish higher low.

    For the shorts a confirmation of the longer term downward momentum needs a significant breach of the 63.65 level.

    As long as the price action can hold above this level there is a possibility that a base can be built base from where a corrective rally can unfold.

    However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 68.20 level.

    A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.

    Current support is at the 66.65 level.

    Alternatively successful test of the 8.20 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 69.60 level.


    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

  4. #294

    Default

    MORE ON ACFXblog.com


    ACFX London opening technical report – 05.12.2014




    EURUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday Super Mario decided to sit on his hands with respect to QE and this sent EURUSD higher.

    This afternoon however we have the NFP being released.

    A strong number will most likely push EURUSD down in the direction of the significant monthly trend line support that comes in at around the 1.2200 level.

    In terms of other times frames the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts even after yesterdays minor rally are still trading in a technical down trend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2325 level changed the 1 hour trend back to up with the line of control now at the 1.2275 level.

    The upside targets for today are at the 1.2400 and 1.2445 levels.

    Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2325



    GBPUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday was an indifferent day for Cable as GBPUSD traded around its open and then closed slightly lower.

    On the 4 hour and daily charts we are seeing a great deal of consolidation as the price action holds above the 1.5585 low.

    The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.

    However as mentioned in prior posts I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.

    This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.

    Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.

    However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.

    This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.

    As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?

    With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.

    The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.

    A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5725 level.

    The intraday support is at 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.

    Alternative upside resistance comes in at 1.5645 and 1.5675.



    USDJPY



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday we got the push I was watching for above the 120.00 level.

    However traders did push USDJPY close to the 119.30 support level in what was a bout of corrective profit taking however during the Tokyo session USDJPY has resumed its upward course once more.

    All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.

    On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.

    For the time however with the upside momentum being so strong it is probably unwise to be brave enough to get in front of what has become a USDJPY juggernaut.

    The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level.

    Upside areas of interest being the 120.50 and 120.75 levels.

    Alternatively down side levels are 119.30 and 119.00.



    USDCHF



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday USDCHF experienced a strong pull back as it broke down through the 0.9730 and 0.9630 levels.

    Support finally came in at the 0.9650 level.

    Both the 4 hour and daily charts has now committed to the long side by painting a higher high swings.

    The weekly time frame will also turned positive if we get a move above the 0.9845 level.

    A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9650.

    The current upside targets are 0.9730 and 0.9800.

    Alternative downside targets are 0.9690 and 0.9650.



    AUDUSD



    The macro technical view

    With a break beneath the 0.8400 level becoming a reality has there ever been a case of ground hog day being more applicable to a currency pair then AUDUSD.

    All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.

    The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.

    In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.

    Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require some basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.

    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8415.

    The current downside targets are 0.8350 and 0.8315.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8400 and 0.8445.


    GOLD



    The macro technical view

    Gold has traded in a relatively small range over the past two business days with the price action confined within the 1203.00 and 1215.00 levels.

    The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.

    The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.

    I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.

    On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 levels.

    Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1215.00

    Alternatively support comes in at 1203.00 and 1192.50


    OIL



    The macro technical view

    As mentioned in yesterday’s post the 68.00 area has now become a significant area of intraday resistance with the 68.20 level becoming the line in the sand.

    The bulls really need to get a close above this level if the upside momentum is to be maintained.

    All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish however the 4 hour time frame is attempting to paint a bullish higher low.

    For the shorts a confirmation of the longer term downward momentum needs a significant breach of the 63.65 level.

    As long as the price action can hold above this level there is a possibility that a base can be built base from where a corrective rally can unfold.

    However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 68.20 level.

    A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.

    Current support is at the 66.65 level.

    Alternatively successful test of the 8.20 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 69.60 level.


    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

  5. #295

    Default

    EURUSD has taken a up streak but its an good selling opportunity as buying at these level is a bit risky.

  6. #296

    Default

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    ACFX daily technical report – London Open 09.12.2014





    EURUSD



    The macro technical view

    EURUSD traded higher in what was a technical correction.

    As posted in prior articles further downside momentum could push EURUSD in the direction of the significant monthly trend line support that comes in at around the 1.2200 level.

    In terms of other times frames the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts even after yesterdays minor rally are still trading in a technical down trend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control way up at the 1.2455 level.

    Current downside support comes in at 1.2325 and 1.2275.

    Alternatively upside resistance can be found at 1.2360 and 1.2400.



    GBPUSD



    The macro technical view

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher. As with the EURUSD the move had more to do with a technical correction rather than any real news driven event.

    The 4 hour and daily chart are now down trending with Friday’s price action now opening up the possibility of a GBPUSD now testing the monthly support trend line.

    This support area comes in around 1.5200 to 1.5250.

    The weekly and monthly time frames continue to point upwards therefore the 1.5200/50 area becomes a significant line in the sand.

    A breach of this area could set the pound up for a multi month down trend.

    However a bounce off major support opens up the possibility for a move to the 1.7050 level.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5695 level.

    The intraday support is at 1.5645 and 1.5625 levels.

    Alternative upside resistance comes in at 1.5675 and 1.5695.




    USDJPY



    The macro technical view

    Following the unsuccessful attempt at the 122.00 level USDJPY has experienced a strong downside correction.

    I mentioned in my prior posts that this up move did look a little over bought, especially when one looked at the amount of green bullish candles on the weekly chart.

    A correction was therefore on the cards.

    The question is are we just seeing a 1 or 2 candle daily correction that will allow buyers to jump onto the long side at better values or will this correction be more cyclical and last week’s rather than days.

    It is rather too early to tell however with all times frames from 4 hour and above being bullish the prudent choice would be to wait for a technical change of trend before deciding to commit to the short side of the trade.

    In terms of the monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level.

    Upside areas of interest being the 120.25 and 121.00 levels.

    Alternatively down side levels are 119.30 and 118.60.


    USDCHF



    The macro technical view

    After testing the 0.9800 area USDCHF has experienced a decent pull back.

    This correction is a technical pull back with all time frames from 1 hour to the daily pointing up.

    The weekly time frame will also turn positive if we get a move above the 0.9845 level.

    A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.

    The intraday technical outlook

    The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9650.

    The current upside resistance is at the 0.9800 and 0.9845 levels.

    Alternative downside targets are 0.9730 and 0.9690 levels.



    AUDUSD



    The macro technical view

    Unlike the other majors AUDUSD has not had any type of a pullback.

    The overnight NAB survey has only reinforced the negativity surrounding the Aussie Dollar.

    All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.

    The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.

    In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.

    Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames.

    This is something I have yet to notice.

    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8315.

    This morning’s AUDUSD is testing the 0.8250 support level.

    The current downside targets are 0.8250 and 0.8200.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8260 and 0.8315.


    GOLD



    The macro technical view

    After experiencing a moderate pull back Gold is once again trading higher.

    Gold continues to trade in a 4 hour uptrend as the price action attempts to paint a higher low swing.

    The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high being painted.

    Last week XAUSD closed higher and actually put in a higher low.

    This price could possibly be the precursor of a double bottom forming on the weekly chart.

    On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.

    The intraday technical outlook

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour trend is down with the line of control at 1214.95 levels.

    Current support comes in at 1203.00 and 1192.50.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1214.95.


    OIL




    The macro technical view

    Oil continues to slide with the price action yesterday penetrating the 63.65 support level.

    This level was identified in prior posts as the target the shorts where gunning for.

    With the 63.65 now broken the 58.75 target now comes into play.

    The recent price action has not put all time frames from 4 hour and above into negative territory.

    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 66.65 level.

    Current support comes in at 60.00 and 58.75.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 63.65 and 66.85.



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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 12.12.2014



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD traded lower at it moved into the area of the last isolated low at the 1.2360 area.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control way up at the 1.2360 level.

    Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2400 and 1.2450.

    Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2330.

    The macro technical view

    The move higher has turned the 4 hour trend positive following the breach of the 1.2450 resistance level

    The daily trend continues to be negative today’s as the price action trades under the 1.2600 daily resistance levels.

    The move under the 1.2750 has turned the weekly trend to down with support coming in around 1.2250.

    The monthly frame is interesting.

    Although the current swing count is negative the monthly price action is trading within a converging triangle with support coming in off the 1.2200 to 1.2250 level which corresponds to trend line support




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded down to the area of its prior intraday swing low at the 1.5650 level.

    However it’s stay in these regions was brief as it traded higher throughout the rest of the London and New sessions.

    Intraday the pound is trading in an uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5650 level.

    The intraday upside resistance comes in at 1.5725 and 1.5750.

    Alternative support is at 1.5645 and 1.5625 levels.

    The macro technical view

    The breach of the 1.5725 technically changed the 4 hour trend to up.

    However there is some concern that the candle could not paint a 4 hour close above the 1.5725 level.

    The daily chart is trading in a technical down trend with resistance coming in at 1.5825.

    The weekly chart saw GBPUSD breach the 1.6390 level and a multi month down trend line.

    This move has technically changed the weekly trend to positive.

    The weekly and monthly time frames continue to point upwards therefore the 1.5200/50 area becomes a significant line in the sand.

    The 1.5200/50 area is a zone of support that is offered by a multi month trend line.

    A breach of this area could set the pound up for a multi month down trend.

    However a bounce off major support opens up the possibility for a move to the 1.7050 level.



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday the area of the 119.55 being intraday resistance held back the rise of USDJPY.

    However with Sunday’s election looming large on the horizon downward traders will be anticipating potential further Yen weakening following a possible Abe election victory.

    Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.55 level.

    Downside support is at 118.25 and 117.90.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 118.95 and 119.30.

    The macro technical view

    Longer term position traders will once again be eyeing a potential retest of the 122.00 level on Monday if Abe as is expected wins Sunday’s election.

    The 4 hour time frame has been in an uptrend since the breach of the 118.95 resistance level.

    The daily time has been bullish for some time and the correction that it recently experienced is due to recent news events but also to a large part of traders simply realizing profits.

    Much the same for the weekly chart however we do have weekly support at the 115.70 level.

    The weekly chart gives us the interesting possibility of a lower close for the first time since October 5,

    The 117.85 level will be a key level to watch today being last weeks low.

    The monthly chart has a price target of 124.15.

    After such weakness in the Yen and with the prospect of Fed tightening and the Bank of Japan implementing massive stimulus the 124.15 level is looking a probable prospect.


    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday USDCHF had a good run up after it failed to test the 0.9600 level

    The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is down with the line of control at 0.9725.

    The downside support is at 0.9650 and 0.9610 levels.

    Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9690 and 0.9725 levels.

    The macro technical view

    The highlight of the price action on the 4 hour chart with the market rejecting repeated attempts to sustain a move under the 0.9650 level.

    The daily chart does look like a staircase with price action having experience what looks like a typical downside controlled correction.

    The upside target of 0.9840 being weekly resistance is still in play.

    The weekly time frame will also turn positive if we get a move above the 0.9840 level.

    A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday AUDUSD once again reverted to form as it broke beneath the 0.8280 and 0.8265 support levels.

    However the price action was held at the 0.8220 support level being the area of the prior isolated low.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8375.

    The current downside support is at the 0.8265 and 0.8220.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8280 and 0.8315.

    The macro technical view

    All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.

    The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.

    In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.

    Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames.

    This is something I have yet to notice.


    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Following Gold’s breach of the 1215.00 resistance level the price action has been trending up.

    However we have now had the painting of a lower high swing pivot at the 1232.00 level.

    Gold needs to trade above this level for confirmation that the uptrend is in good health,

    On an intraday basis the 1 hour trend is uptrend with the line of control at 1215.00 levels.

    Current upside resistance comes in at 1225.60 and 1232.00.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1221.00.00 and 1215.00.

    The macro technical view

    Gold continues to trade in a 4 hour uptrend as the price action attempts to paint a higher low swing.

    The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high being painted.

    Last week XAUSD closed higher and actually put in a higher low.

    This price could possibly be the precursor of a double bottom forming on the weekly chart.

    On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to slide with the price action yesterday penetrating the 60.45 support level.

    The decline was somewhat held at the 59.25 level.

    Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 61.45 level.

    Current support comes in at 59.25 and 56.50.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 64.45 and 61.65.

    The macro technical view

    With all time frames from 4 hour and above point down the next the 59.25 level becomes today’s battleground.




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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 15.12.2014



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has over the past three sessions traded within a 1.2370 to 1.2495 range.

    A significant brake of this range will potentially dictate the medium term trading direction.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.2370 level.

    Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2495 and 1.2530.

    Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2450 and 1.2420





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has been trading within a 1.5650 to 1.5750 trading range over the past three sessions.

    A significant brake of this range will potentially dictate the medium term trading direction.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5650 level.

    The intraday upside resistance comes in at 1.5750 and 1.5790.

    Alternative support is at 1.5725 and 1.5650 levels.


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is trading within a 118.00 to 119.00 trading range.

    A significant brake of this range will potentially dictate the medium term trading direction.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 119.05 level

    Downside support is at 118.25 and 117.50.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 119.05 and 119.55.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Overnight USDCHF tested the 0.9625 support level.

    A significant breach of this level would confirm that the intraday downtrend is intact.

    USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9710 level

    The downside support is at 0.9625 and 0.9610 levels.

    Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9690 and 0.9710 levels.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Overnight AUDUSD tested but could not sustain a move under the 0.8200 support level.

    A significant breach of this level would confirm that the intraday downtrend is intact.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8300 level.

    The current downside support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8070.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8300 and 0.8350.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    XAUUSD this morning tested and bounced off the 1215.00 support level.

    A significant breech of this level would change the 1 hour from up to down.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday uptrend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.

    Current upside resistance comes in at 1221.00 and 1225.60.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1215.00.00 and 1204.75.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil overnight continued to trade lower.

    However the downward slide was held at the 56.50 support level.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 59.25 level.

    Current support comes in at 56.50 and 53.00.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 59.25 and 60.45.


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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 16.12.2014






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD traded in a fairly narrow range as the price action stayed within the range of the December 11 candle.

    Currently the price action has painted a lower high at the 1.2485 level.

    Although I have the line of control at the 1.2370 level a breach and close beneath the the 1.2420 level being the prior swing low would be sufficient to change the trend from up to down.

    The price action this morning is trading around the 1.2450 level.

    A close above or below this level could potentially indicate the direction of today’s trading.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.2370 level.

    Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2495 and 1.2530.

    Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2420 and 1.2400.



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD yesterday experienced significant bearish price action that saw it break beneath the 1.5695 support level and trade through the 1.5650 level,

    However the decline was stopped around the 1.5625 support area.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5750 level.

    The support is at 1.5660 and 1.5625 levels.

    Alternative intraday upside resistance comes in at 1.5725 and 1.5750.



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning USDJPY broke under the 117.50 support level.

    The next level of support comes in at the 115.70 area which was a prior weekly pivot.

    As this level is far away from the current price action the next possible levels of support are the round trading numbers starting at 117.00.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.05 level

    Downside support is at 117.00 and 116.50.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.50 and 118.25.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday USDCHF experienced choppy price action that saw it trade within the 0.9625 to 0.9675 range.

    This morning USDCHF open negatively as the price action trades under the 0.9650 support level.

    A breach of the 0.9625 is required so as to confirm that the bearish intraday outlook.

    USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9675 level

    The downside support is at 0.9625 and 0.9610 levels.

    Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9650 and 0.9675 levels.




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    During yesterday and this morning AUDUSD has made 3 attempts to penetrate through the 0.8200 level.

    This level is significant as it is both a round number and a level of prior monthly support/resistance.

    This morning AUDUSD has open positively as the price action trades above the 0.8220 support level.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8265 level.

    The current downside support is at the 0.8220 and 0.8200.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8265 and 0.8285.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    The recent bullish feel surrounding XAUUSD has gone over the past two business days as Gold emphatically broke the the 1215.00 support level.

    Yesterday’s slide however was stopped at the 1191.65 support level.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1232.00 level.

    Current support comes in at 1191.65 and 1185.25.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1204.75 and 1215.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil on Monday initially bounced off the 56.50 support level.

    However traders where unable to push crude up to the 59.25 resistance level.

    In afternoon trading Oil reverted to its downward direction as the market push oil through the 56.50 support level.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 56.50 level.

    Current support comes in at 53.00 and 50.35.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 56.50 and 59.25.





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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 17.12.2014




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    With Fed day finally upon us watch out for big moves today for the euro and all major currency pairs, commodities and metals.

    Yesterday EURUSD continued with its recent strong rally.

    EURUSD did break above the 1.2500 level and at one point seemed that it would test the 1.2570 resistance level.

    However in the afternoon traded EURUSD traded off its highs as it moved back down to the 1.2500 support area.

    This morning EURUSD is making an attempt to trade beneath its down channel.

    This is a very early sign of weakness in EURUSD.

    A confirmation a more bearish sentiment is being felt by the market would see EURUSD make a weak pull back back into its up channel before once again rolling over.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.2420 level.

    Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2500 and 1.2575.

    Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2450 and 1.2420.



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday was a wild ride for cable.

    Initially it attempted to test the 1.5600 support level before turning in a dime and breaking higher.

    The rally was so dramatic the we had an actual close above the 1.5750 level.

    This has necessitated a trend change from down to up.

    In the afternoon trade we had very choppy action at the highs.

    This morning GBPUSD is trading lower in quiet action as the market awaits the latest MPC rate vote.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5600 level.

    Upside resistance comes in at 1.5750 and 1.5790.

    Alternative intraday Support can be found at 1.5725 and 1.5660 levels.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    The 115.70 level yesterday offered a good area of support.

    We did get an initial test of the 117.50 level.

    This morning it would appear that this level and the top of the down channel are about to be tested once more.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.05 level

    Downside support is at 115.70 and 113.85.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.50 and 118.25.



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning USDCHF is retesting the 0.9625 level.

    This was a level USDCHF yesteday failed to trade above.

    The price action is also trading above its down channel.

    I am monitoring the price action for a potential pull back into this channel.

    A weak pullback would signal that market sentiment is changing to a more bullish outlook.

    USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9675 level

    The downside support is at 0.9610 and 0.9550 levels.

    Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9625 and 0.9650 levels.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday for the most part AUDUSD had a good day as the price action bounced off the 0.8200 level.

    We did get a retest of the 0.8265 resistance level however the price action was not able to sustain a close above this level.

    In early morning trading AUDUSD has broken lower as it slashed through yesterday support.

    The next support level is the 0.8070 level being a prior weekly swing pivot.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8265 level.

    The current downside support is at the 0.8100 and 0.8070.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8265.


    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold yesterday had a wild day of trading which saw the price action test both the 1221.00 resistance and 1191.65 support level.

    This morning XAUUSD is trading at the lows of yesterdays range and between the 1191.65 and 1204.85 levels.

    We do have a down channel developing.

    I will be monitoring the price action with a view on how Gold reacts to a potential move up to the top of its channel.

    However a break beneath the 1191.65 would confirm that the down move will potentially continue.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.

    Current support comes in at 1191.65 and 1186.25.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1204.85 and 1215.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday Oil managed to avoid hitting the 53.00 support level.

    This will no doubt come as a bit of a relief to oil producers.

    In afternoon trading Oil staged a mini US$3.00 rally which saw it test the 56.50 level.

    This morning Oil is trading off the previous days highs at the 54.75 level.

    I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 53.00 level or a retest of the 56.50 level.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 59.25 level.

    Current support comes in at 53.00 and 50.35.

    Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 56.50 and 59.25.





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