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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #311

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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 13.01.2015





    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within yesterday’s range.

    Yesterday’s price action did break above the current down channel as EURUSD painted a higher high and higher low formation.

    I will today be monitoring the price action for a possible retest of the 1.1875 level which coincides with yesterdays high.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1785 level.

    Current resistance can be found at 1.1875 and 1.1970.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1.1785 and 1.1755.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning GBPUSD has bounce lower following a retest of the 1.5195 level.

    This level coincides with yesterday’s high.

    The resulting price action has created a minor intraday double top formation and a higher low swing.

    This morning there is a great deal of economic data coming our of the UK with the highlight being the year on year CPI number.

    One would assume that a lower than expected forecast number would add to the downward pressure Cable is currently experiencing.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5195 level.

    Current support can be found at 1.5095 and 1.5030 levels.

    Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5195 and 1.5245.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY sat down yesterday following the latest release of Japan’s current account.

    In early morning trading USDJPY rebounded off the 117.75 level.

    With a Japan budget due to be announced tomorrow that plans to disclose record levels of support for the Japanese economy one could expect the possibility of increased market volatility and continued Yen weakness.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level

    Current support is at 118.25 and 117.75.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 118.85 and 119.30.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Following the break of its upward channel USDCHF has traded within a fairly tight range.

    A double bottom has formed above the 1.0100 level and this would appear to today’s battle ground.

    A breach and close of the 1.0200 level which is slight above yesterday’s high of 1.0188 would give confirmation that the current up trend is intact.

    USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0110 level

    Current resistance is at the 1.0200 and 1.0250 levels.

    Alternatively support is at 1.0110 and 1.0040 levels.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday AUDUSD corrected aggressively lower as traders took profits off the table.

    However in afternoon trading AUDUSD found support at the 0.8125 level.

    I will this morning monitoring the price action for signs that AUDUSD is attempting to put in place a bullish higher low formation.

    Such an occurrence could propel AUDUSD back up to yesterday’s high of 0.8255.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8125 level.

    Current resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8255.

    Alternatively support is at the 0.8160 and 0.8120.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold this morning continues to trade higher and as I write is resting the 1238.00 resistance level.

    The move higher came off a bounce off the channel bottom.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1238.00 and 1254.00.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1230.00 and 1221.00.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade lower as the price action slashes through the US$45.00 per barrel level.

    Following an acceleration of downward momentum the possibility of Oil hitting the US$40.00 becomes more likely.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 49.50 level.

    Current support comes in at 44.00 and 40.85.

    Alternatively resistance comes in at 45.00 and 46.80.



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  2. #312

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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 14.01.2015





    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    In afternoon trading EURUSD moved lower as the price action breached the 1.1785 support level.

    The move below the 1.1785 level means that the price action breached the last prior isolated swing low.

    This move technically changes the trend from up to down.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1860 level.

    Current support comes in at 1.1755 and 1.1700.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1785 and 1.1860.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    The market did initially sell off following the worse than expected CPI number.

    However both the governor of the Bank of England, Mr, Mark Carney and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Mr. George Osborne have gone out of the way to play down the risk of deflation by focusing the discussion on the Oil story which on the whole is positive for the UK economy.

    It would seem that the markets have a similar view with cable yesterday pairing most of its losses and closed just under its open.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5195 level.

    Current support can be found at 1.5095 and 1.5030 levels.

    Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5195 and 1.5245.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s announcement of a record budget would seemed to have been welcomed as the Yen appreciated against the US Dollar.

    The failure of USDJPY to retest December’s highs has given traders food for thought.

    Falling US yields forced investors to sell the Green Back and shift their funds to lower risk assets.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 118.85 level

    Current support is at 117.00 and 116.50.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday USDCHF traded higher off its double bottom formation as the price action took out the 1.0190 resistance level and retested the 1.0215 high.

    However the price action was not about to sustain a move above the 1.0215 level and has during overnight and morning trading move back down to its channel bottom.

    I am this morning currently monitoring the price action for a possible rebound off the channel bottom and a retest of the 1.0215 level.

    USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0125 level

    Current resistance is at the 1.0215 and 1.0250 levels.

    Alternatively support is at 1.0125 and 1.0100 levels.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    This mornings breach of the 0.8125 level will technically change the trend from up to down.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8200 level.

    Current support is at the 0.8070 and 0.8035.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8125 and 0.8160.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday Gold put in a new recent high in late morning trading.

    However as the day continued XAUUSD sold off.

    This morning the sell off has continued as Gold trades under its down channel.

    This morning a minor support level has now been established above the 1225.00 level with a minor one hour pin bar double bottom forming.

    I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current up trend.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1240.00 and 1244.50.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1230.00 and 1221.00.



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil yesterday bounced off the US$44.25 area as the price action corrected above the US$45.00 level.

    However the negativity has once again entered the market as Oil once more approaches the US$45.00 level.

    Expect increased market volatility around the time of the US Oil Inventories report.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 49.50 level.

    Current support comes in at 44.25 and 40.85.

    Alternatively resistance comes in at 45.00 and 46.80.




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  3. #313

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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 15.01.2015






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD traded higher as the Dollar weakened due to a disappointing Retail Sales number.

    The resulting move higher broke above the high of the current down channel.

    Although EURUSD did trade above the high of its intraday swing pivot which technically changes the trend from down the move higher does look a little anemic.

    Especially if one was to compare the strength in the other currency pairs and especially AUDUSD and Oil.

    This maybe because of the the legal go ahead given by the European Court of Justice to the ECB with respect to Bond purchases, traders will still have an eye on shorting rallies in EURUSD.

    As confirmation that this move higher will continue I would like to see a rejection of a move lower to the 1.1725 level which is yesterdays low and the possible formation of a double bottom / higher low.

    From this base we will need to see 1.1845 taken out as this level is yesterday’s high and the last 1 hour isolated high pivot.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1725 level.

    Current resistance can be found at 1.1810 and 1.1845.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1.1755 and 1.1725.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher as the price action moved above the 1.5195 level.

    The breach and close above this level has technically changed the trend from down to up.

    The move higher was finally held at the 1.5245 level.

    This coincides with the bottom of a recently broken multiple year trend line.

    From a longer term perspective if the this months candle can close above this trend line then we have a powerful case for a continuation of higher prices.

    I will discuss this further in a longer term GBPUSD analysis.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5075 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1.5245 and 1.5340.

    Alternative support can be found at 1.5195 and 1.5100 levels.


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Last night the Cabinet Office released the latest month on month Core Machinery Orders number.

    The latest release missed the forecast by reporting 4.8% whereas the actual came in at 1.3%.

    This news helped propel USDJPY higher as this currency pair put in a V bottom formation.

    With USDJPY this morning testing the 117.75 level I am monitoring the price action for a possible test of the down channel top.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 118.85 level

    Current support is at 117.00 and 116.10.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday USDCHF experienced a volatile session as it tested the 1.0235 level before falling back in the afternoon following the release of US data.

    The move lower did breach and close under the 1.0165 level being the last isolated low.

    The breach of this level technically changes the trend from up to down.

    The recent price action has resulted in a rising wedge forming,

    With the USDCHF now trading within a rather congested and choppy range it would probably best to trade this range.

    Longer term directional traders can potentially taken if the range is broken.

    USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.0235 level.

    Current support is at 1.0125 and 1.0100 levels.

    Alternatively resistance is at the 1.0215 and 1.0250 levels.



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Overnight the Australian Bureau of Statistics published its latest Employment Change number.

    The number was a big surprise as the actual of 37.4K being a big beat on the forecast of 5.3K.

    This news did much to propel AUDUSD higher as the price action broke the 0.8200 resistance level.

    The breach of the 0.8200 level means that the price action has broken above the last isolated high and this has resulted in the trend technically changing from down to up.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8070 level.

    Current resistance can be found at 0.8255 and 0.8350.

    Alternatively support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8160.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold yesterday attempted to test but ultimately failed to breach the 1244.00 resistance level.

    It would now appear that there is a possibility that trading range will form between the 1225.00 and 1244.00 levels.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1225.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1240.00 and 1244.00.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1225.00 and 1221.00.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s Crude Oil Inventories report stated the reserves had expanded to 5.4M.

    This number beat the forecast of 1.2M by a wide margin.

    Although inventories expanded Oil shrugged off the news as it traded higher.

    The move higher broke above the current large down channel and the last isolated high at the 46.80 level.

    The breach of the 46.80 level technically changes the 1 hour trend from down to up.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 45.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 49.50 and 50.35.

    Alternatively support comes in at 47.00 and 45.00.



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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 16.01.2015




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Following yesterday’s news the focus once again is on the Swiss National Bank.

    The SNB as a holder of a very substantial position of Euro’s is now a downward pressure on the EURCHF and EURUSD currency pairs.

    With Euro stimulus seemingly on the way I expect sell offs into strength to continue.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1845 level.

    Current support comes in at 1.1560 and 1.1500.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Following the news of the SNB action GBPUSD made another attempt at the 1.5245 resistance level.

    As I have mentioned in prior post this level coincides with the bottom of a recently broken multiple year trend line.

    From a longer term perspective if the this months candle can close above this trend line then we have a powerful case for a continuation of higher prices.

    I will discuss this further in a longer term GBPUSD analysis.

    With the SNB implementing a policy of negative interests rates I would expect to see a shift of funds into the pound and more specifically the safe haven of the London real estate market.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5150 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1.5195 and 1.5245.

    Alternative support can be found at 1.5150 and 1.5100 levels


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday the SNB announcement has necessitated a flight to safety and the Yen together Gold has been one of the major beneficiaries.

    We have a prior weekly support level at the 115.70 level.

    I would expect that the markets have also identified this level and will possibly attempt to test it at some stage.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 117.75 level

    Current support is at 116.10 and 115.70.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Due to the SNB action any charts shorter than a monthly time frame are for the time being very difficult to read.

    Furthermore the range based levels based off the average true range or off pivots for the time being are unreliable.

    Therefore to try and give an intraday perspective for the time being is hard to do.

    The trend is most definitely down and will all things being equal will continue to point it this direction.

    I will take a detail look at the Swiss Franc tomorrow but for the time being I will let the market work through this excessive volatility.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD corrected downwards in afternoon and overnight trading.

    However this morning it appears that support has held at the 0.8200 level.

    This morning AUDUSD has resumed its upward direction.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8070 level.

    Current resistance can be found at 0.8255 and 0.8295.

    Alternatively support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8160.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    I focused on Gold this week as technically there looked like an opportunity for a longer term buy trade setting up.

    The SNB decision would seem to have time the technical’s and fundamentals to perfection.

    Especially with Swiss Banks now penalizing deposits with negative interest rates holding Gold now becomes that little bit more attractive.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1225.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1269.00 and 1280.00.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1254.00 and 1225.00.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil at one stage traded at US$51.00 to the barrel.

    However in afternoon trading Oil sold off as the price action collapsed under the 47.15 isolated low.

    The breach and close under the 47.15 technically changes the trend from up to down.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.

    Current support comes in at 45.00 and 44.25.

    Alternatively resistance comes in at 46.80 and 51.00.



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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 19.01.2015




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    The Euro continues to slide as the ECB decision begins to loom large this week.

    With market volatilty increasing day by day could it be in the realms of possibility that we have a test of the 1.1000 level by the time of the ECB meeting.

    For now the the mid 1.20 levels in December seem like a long time ago.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.

    Current support comes in at 1.1560 and 1.1500.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Late on Friday GBPUSD broke the 1.5150 support level.

    The breach of the prior isolated low technically changes the trend from up to down.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5230 level.

    Current support can be found at 1.5100 and 1.5070 levels.

    Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5150 and 1.5195



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY on Friday bounced off the double bottom support area that is found at 116.10.

    What followed was an attempt to retest the 117.75 resistance level.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 117.75 level

    Current support is at 116.10 and 115.70.

    Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.

    I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.

    In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8205 to 0.9125 levels.



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    On Friday AUDUSD traded higher as the price action bounced off the 0.8160 area.

    The move higher continued into today’s trader however the recent price action has been rather choppy.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8160 level.

    Current resistance can be found at 0.8255 and 0.8295.

    Alternatively support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8160.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold traded higher on Friday as traders and investors looked safety in this turbulent market.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1254.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1280.00 and 1306.00.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1269.00 and 1254.00.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    The SNB news has relegated the Oil story out of the spotlight.

    The ECB meeting and the Greek election will further allow Oil to drop out of the limelight.

    This lack of focus on Oil could just be what is required to allow Oil to build a base above the 45.00 level.

    Friday’s break under the 47.15 support level has changed the trend from up to down.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 48.85 level.

    Current support comes in at 46.00 and 45.00.

    Alternatively resistance comes in at 48.85 and 51.00.



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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 20.01.2015




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD failed to breach the 1.1640 when it retested this level.

    Subsequently the price action traded back down to the 1.1565 support level.

    With the QE decision looming large the market is now trying to second guess which way the ECB will decide to go.

    The SNB move had initially made it look like a decision on Euro Zone stimulus was a certainty however there are now concerns that the ECB could spring a surprise on traders.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.

    Current support comes in at 1.1560 and 1.1500.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday GDPUSD continued to slide as the price action took out a recent isolated 4 hour pivot low at the 1.5075 level.

    It would appear that traders are now targeting the 1.5030 2015 low.

    With the weekly and monthly charts looking so bear ugly there is a possibility that we do see a continuation of the downward momentum.

    The only hope presently for the bulls is if a double bottom forms above the 1.5030 on the daily time frame.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5175 level.

    Current support can be found at 1.5075 and 1.5030 levels.

    Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5100 and 1.5150.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY overnight broke above both the 117.75 resistance level and the downward channel.

    The move above the 117.75 level has technically changed the trend from down to up.

    With the Bank of Japan governor due to deliver a press conference in the early hours of Wednesday morning a reaffirmation of the current dovish stance will only add to this recent USDJPY rally.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 116.90 level

    Current resistance levels are at 118.85 and 119.30

    Alternatively support is at 118.25 and 117.75.



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday:

    The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.

    I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.

    In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8450 to 0.8815 levels.




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning AUDUSD traded lower on the China GDP news.

    However the sell off has been limited as the market digests the news that this data was not as bad as expected.

    In the past four hours AUDUSD has traded higher off the 0.8160 support level.

    I am now monitoring the price action for a possible retest of the 0.8240 level.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8160 level.

    Current resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8215.

    Alternatively support is at the 0.8160 and 0.8125.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold this morning is trading higher following its one day consolidation with the price action currently testing the 1280.00 resistance level.

    A breach and close above this level could accelerate the pace of upward momentum.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1254.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1280.00 and 1306.00.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1269.00 and 1254.00.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday Mr. Mohammed al-Sabban who is the Saudi Arabia minister for petroleum said that his could country would not suffer economically even if oil prices stay at low levels for “at least eight years”.

    It is obvious that such comments are made to spook the markets and came at a time when the price of oil has risen moderately.

    Although oil did drop on the back of these comments the fall was not as dramatic and deep as could have been expected.

    The intraday chart has now arrived at a juncture in that the price action is now trading in a 46.00 to 49.00 range.

    A brake above or beneath this range will potentially dictate the medium term directional momentum.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 48.85 level.

    Current support comes in at 46.00 and 45.00.

    Alternatively resistance comes in at 48.85 and 51.00.



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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 22.01.2015




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD traded nervously as the market battled to form a view on the soon to announced us ECB stimulus program.

    The markets have already priced in EUR 500 billion and an “open ended” ECB policy.

    A failure to deliver this could send European equities crashing and the Euro higher.

    EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.

    Current support comes in at 1.1565 and 1.1500.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday GBPUSD traded lowers on the news that all MPC policy makers had decided to keep interest rates on hold.

    Up until recently two of the Monetary Policy Committee members had advocated a increase in interest rates. Therefore this shift in opinion puts back further the possibility of an interest rate increase.

    Trying to make sense of the 1 hour chart for Cable at the moment is a little difficult as the price action has become very volatile with wild swings in price occurring.

    A look at the four hour chart one can see the price action forming one of the most difficult patterns to trade which is an expanding triangle.

    The price action needs to break above or beneath this range for more clarity to come into the trade.

    GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5175 level.

    Current support can be found at 1.5100 and 1.5200 levels.

    Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5100 and 1.5050.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY continues to trade above both the 117.75 resistance level and the downward channel.

    The move above the 117.75 level has technically changed the trend from down to up.

    USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.15 level

    Current resistance levels are at 118.25 and 118.85.

    Alternatively support is at 117.75 and 117.15.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday:

    The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.

    I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.

    In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8450 to 0.8815 levels.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday AUDUSD crashed through its 0.8160 support level.

    This move has changed the intraday trend from up to down.

    AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8230 level.

    Current support is at the 0.8070 and 0.8035.

    Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8125 and 0.8160.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold has experienced a two day correction that has taken the price action close to its channel bottom and the 1280.00 support level.

    I am monitoring the price action for a potential rebound off these levels.

    Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1269.00 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 1306.00 and 1321.00.

    Alternatively support comes in at 1280.00 and 1269.00.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    The recent price action on oil has seen the trading ranges get smaller and smaller day by day.

    Trying to get a 1 hour trend bias is difficult at the moment.

    Although we have a break above a prior swing high which means we are in a technical up trend the structure of the recent price action leads me to question the validity of current directional momentum.

    That we have had a break of a large down channel does give an indication that the longer term bias is up.

    However the price of Oil at the moment is dictated by through away comments by official and semi official comments and current geo-political events.

    More clarity will come once we have the ECB meeting and this afternoons Crude Inventories report.

    Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 46.80 level.

    Current resistance comes in at 48.20 and 48.85

    Alternatively support comes in at 46.80 and 46.00.


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  8. #318

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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 27.01.2015



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD bounced higher as it traded back up to the 1.2950 level.

    This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades in a very tight range.

    I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.1100 level.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has had a good bounce that has taken the price action back up to its channel top.

    I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential resumption of its prior down trend.

    In terms of news the BBA mortgage approvals data and more importantly the Preliminary GDP data is out this morning at 9:30 am London time.

    This news could cause market volatility.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5195 level.


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY continues to trade within a very large range between the 117.15 to 118.85 levels.

    This morning USDJPY is trading lower off its open as it retraces back to the 117.75 level.

    A successful test of the 118.85 is required to confirm the strength of the up trend.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.15 level.

    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday:

    The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.

    I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.

    In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8450 to 0.8815 levels.

    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has traded higher as it approaches its channel top.

    The move higher has taken the price action back into its averages.

    I am currently monitoring a potential resumption of the down trend.

    From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8125 level.

    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold this morning broke above its very narrow down channel.

    This could be the first signs that the recent downside correction is coming to an end.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1298.00 level.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s news from OPEC that prices have bottom helped keep Oil above the US$ 45.00 per barrel level.

    However further evidence is required before I will take notice of a possible upside reversal.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.


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  9. #319

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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 30.01.2015



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD finished the day testing its channel top.

    This morning EURUSD has made a successful attempt to break above this resistance level.

    With European CPI data out this morning and the markets eyeing events in Athens we may see some volatility hit the Euro trade today.

    Today I will be monitoring a continuation of the recent up move towards the 1.1465 resistance level.

    The breach of the 1.1295 level being the prior isolated swing high has changed the trend from down to up.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1295 level.

    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday GBPUSD collapse was finally reversed late into the New York session.

    We did get a good bounce off the 1.5030 support level which took the price action back up to the 1.5075 resistance level.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a resumption of the down trend.

    A breach of the 1.5150 support level has technically changed the trend from up to down.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5220 level.

    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    The market ignored the overnight data with the price action continuing to trade in a tight 8 day range.

    USDJPY continues to trade within a very large range between the 117.15 to 118.85 levels.

    This morning USDJPY is trading lower off its open as it retraces back to the 117.75 level.

    A successful test of the 118.85 is required to confirm the strength of the up trend.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.15 level.

    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday USDCHF continues its mini revival as the price action broke above its 0.9140 level.

    With some normality coming back into the USDCHF price action I will soon once more be taking a closer look at the intraday USDCHF price action

    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s decline in AUDUSD was finally halted at the 0.7720 area.

    However with the trend is still pointing down I will be monitoring the price action for a possible continuation of this move and a test of the 0.7700 level.

    From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8000 level.

    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold continued to trade lower throughout the day. However this move was finally halted at the 1254.00 support level.

    I am today monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the channel top.

    A failure to trend higher could see Gold retest the 1254.00 support level.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1293.00 level.

    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday Oil broke under its US$45.00 support level and traded down to the US$43.50 area before reversing of it lows.

    The price action is currently trading just above the the top of its down channel.

    I am this morning monitoring the price action for a possible resumption of the down trend.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 46.35 level.



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  10. #320

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    ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 04.02.2015



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD yesterday experienced a strong rally yesterday following the conciliatory statements coming from the Greek administration.

    The move higher has taken EURUSD back into major resistance in the shape of the 21 period daily moving averages.

    Professional traders will be eyeing this level for signs of weakness that sends EURUSD back into its downward intraday direction.

    The breach of the 1.1295 level being the prior isolated swing high has changed the trend from down to up.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1310 level.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s UK construction PMI data helped pushed GBPUSD higher.

    With the FTSE 100 now feeding off capital inflows that stimulate higher stock market prices could add to a further appreciation in the price of cable.

    The price action has now put in place a double bottom formation at the 1.4990 level.

    This followed a prior break above a large down channel.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.4990 level.


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    The price action that has unfolded over the past two days has had the effect of creating a double bottom formation above the 116.90 level.

    The daily chart would indicate that a large converging triangle is forming.

    With the trend being so bullish on the weekly time frame I would look for an upside break of this consolidation pattern.

    However as always it would be better to allow the break to happen and then trade the pullback in the direction of the initial move.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 116.90 level.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s breach of the 0.9250 level has technically changed the trend from up to down.

    This moves corresponds to the price action coming into an area of resistance of the 21 period daily moving averages.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9295 level.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday we witnessed a move that breached the large down channel that has formed around the AUDUSD price action.

    This morning we have seen a follow through of yesterdays move.

    The move above the 0.7800 has technical changed the trend from down to up.

    From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.7630 level.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s mini collapse in the price of Gold has now created a double top formation at the 1284.00 level.

    The move lower also took out the 1269.00 level. The breach of this isolated low has technical changed the intraday trend from up to down.

    The price action is now trading with a range of 1254.00 to 1284.00.

    A breach above or beneath these levels could possibly indicate the medium term trend direction.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1284.00 level.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    News from the United States that the crude extractors are now pulling rigs is giving the bulls hope that the fall in the price of oil is now done.

    What is now of interest is the weekly time frame. If we can now get a weekly close above the high of the prior weeks candle then we technically have a reversal signal.

    However to say that the market has found its bottom is still very premature.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 44.25 level.




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