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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #341

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.03.2015




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    The Euro continues to grind down lower and at one point in early morning trading breached the 1.0800 level.

    However over the past hour we have seen EURUSD experience a minor bounce off this area.

    A continuation of the move higher could see EURUSD trade back up to the the upper level of its shorter down channel and the 1.0915 resistance level.

    However with the price action being so negative a continuation of the current down trend is a strong possibility.

    The shorting of rallies will therefore most probably be the more logical option rather than to try to take pips from the long side of the trade.

    The next support level being the 1.0760 level being a prior weekly swing point.

    A breach of this level could see EURUSD test the 1.0600 level being a monthly trend line.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.



    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Overnight GBPUSD traded back up to its channel top.

    However this level appeared to be a good area for the Bears to add more short positions.

    A continuation of the move down could see a second attempt to test the 1.5000 level.

    However over the past hour GBPUSD has been attempting to penetrate its upper channel boundary.

    A breach of this level could see GBPUSD paint a higher low formation that creates a base for higher prices.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.


    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY continues to accelerate higher.

    However the price action this morning is taking a breather at the 121.80 resistance level being a prior weekly swing point.

    With the price action being so extended there is a possibility that we see some down to sideways corrective movement.

    Alternatively with the trend being so bullish an attempt to sustain a move above the 121.80 level should not be ruled out.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF got its break above the 0.9840 resistance level and is now testing the 0.9900 level.

    With the price action however experiencing such a strong up move there is a possibility that USDCHF may find it difficult to sustain a move above the 0.9920 prior resistance level.

    USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.

    The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.


    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    The good China CPI numbers did nothing to bolster the AUDUSD as the price action continued to slump.

    However we did get a bounce off the 0.7630 weekly level.

    With the price action being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we get a corrective bounce back up to the channel top at the 0.7700 level.

    However the Bears are obviously in control therefore the logic of shortening rallies would potentially be the more appropriate policy.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold has continued to trade lower early in the European session.

    However the price action is now testing a prior weekly support level at the 1157.00.

    A penetration of this level could see Gold test the 1133.70 support level.

    Alternatively with Gold being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we see a corrective pullback back up to the 1175.00 resistance level.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil has experienced some messy price action following the break down from its mini up channel.

    This stems from the confusion being created by the daily chart which is showing some signs of bullishness following the price action breaking above its down channel.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.



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  2. #342

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.03.2015




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD continues with its downward drive as it tests the 1.0650 area.

    With seemingly no bulls in sight it would appear that there is no stopping the Euro dropping towards the 1.0570 major support level.

    A break of this level would alert the markets that a move to parity is on the cards.

    However there are major hurdles in the form of weekly swing levels to be found at the 1.0340, 1.0210 and 1.0090 areas.

    A bounce off support could see EURUSD retest the 1.0760 resistance level.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s hawkish speech by the Bank of England boss has helped establish a base at the 1.5000 area.

    This morning GBPUSD has broken above its down channel and painted a double bottom formation.

    I am currently monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.5140 level.

    Alternatively a resumption of the downward pressure could see GBPUSD reattempt to test the 1.5000 level.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning USDJPY experienced a strong bounce within its upward channel.

    I am currently monitoring the price action for a test of yesterday’s high in the 122.00 area.

    Alternatively there is still room for the price action to retest the channel bottom.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has experienced a remarkable recovery and this morning is trading above the 1.0000 parity level.

    The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is experiencing some messy prices action as any minor rallies are slapped down by the bears.

    As the price action being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we get a corrective bounce back up to the channel top.

    However the Bears are obviously in control therefore the logic of shortening rallies would potentially be the more appropriate policy.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted previously Gold continues to bounce off the prior weekly support level at the 1157.00.

    I am now monitoring a potential move back up the 1175.00 resistance level.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.


    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade lower this morning.

    This is testing the patience of the Bulls who hoped that a daily upside channel break was a sign that a base was about to form.

    However the daily break is still intact and there is a possibility that we do eventually see higher prices.

    A move beneath the 47.80 level will negate this scenarios and put the control back firmly in the hands of the sellers.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.



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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.03.2015





    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade lower.

    However this morning EURUSD has found some support around the 1.0500 area and is experiencing a moderate bounce.

    The area of 1.0500 to 1.0600 is significant.

    The reason for this is that this area coincides with a prior weekly swing level and a multiple year trend line support.

    This well established level of support could act as a catalyst for EURUSD to trade higher into the 1.0760 resistance level and the short length channel top.

    However with the market being so bearish the lower risk policy would be to sell into strength.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday the Pound took a bit of a tumble as the downward momentum accelerated.

    However yesterday’s down move was halted at the 1.4885 weekly support level.

    This morning GBPUSD is now experiencing a minor rally as the price action tests the 1.5000 level and its channel top.

    A break above the down channel could see GBPUSD test the 1.5140 resistance level.

    However with Cable trading in such an obvious down trend a potentially less riskier strategy would be to sell into strength.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    The overnight better than expected Japan Consumer Confidence numbers has had the effect of limiting the rise of USDJPY.

    This morning USDJPY is experiencing a strong sell off.

    However with support in the form of the 120.70 weekly swing level and the channel bottom being fairly close and with the trend being so obviously bullish I would looking for a bounce off these areas.

    Alternatively a penetration of the channel bottom could open up the possibility of a further decline down to the 119.80 level.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 120.70 level.

    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    What goes up must come down and this is the case with the Swissy.

    USDCHF has this morning experienced at first site collapse from its lofty heights of 1.0125.

    However there are two monthly support levels at the 0.9970 and 0.9920 to be overcome if the downward momentum is to continue.

    Furthermore with the trend being so bullish buying into weakness such as this mornings dip lower could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    Alternatively the move down has been fairly dramatic therefore a continuation of this downward momentum could potentially take USDCHF to the area of the current price actions channel bottom.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.

    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Better than expected Australian employment numbers have give AUDUSD a strong boost during the early morning trade.

    The move higher is now approaching the area of the 0.7700 resistance level and channel top.

    Furthermore with the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    However with the up move being fairly dramatic there is a possibility that the penetration of the channel top could act as a catalyst for a continuation of the move higher.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.

    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold continues to staircase lower.

    The move lower has taken the price action into the area of Novembers lows.

    With the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    However a test of the 1170.40 swing point could open up the possibility for a move towards the 1175.00 and the current price action channel top.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil yesterday penetrated the recent 47.80 lower.

    This has had the effect of expanding the down trending price channel.

    However this morning the price action has penetrated above its minor channel top.

    I am now monitoring the price action for a possible test of the 49.00 level.

    With the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.



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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.03.2015



    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    With EURUSD now trading under the significant 1.0500 to 1.0600 levels it looks increasing likely that an attempt to push EURUSD to parity will be made.

    However there are many hurdles first need to be overcome in the form of three prior weekly support levels at the 1.0340, 1.0210, 1.0090 areas.

    We may see a correction higher however thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0685 level.


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD this morning has experienced a mini rally .

    However with the price action being so bearish a resumption of the down trend should not be discounted.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5000 level.


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning USDJPY has traded back down to its channel bottom.

    With the macro trend being so bullish this area could potential offer an ideal location to add longs.

    However with the price action having also penetrated the channel bottom a move beneath the recent low in the 121.00 area could signal the beginning of a much stronger corrective pull back.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has experienced a strong bounce off the 0.9970 support area.

    However the resulting up move was not able to penetrate the 1.0125 prior high.

    With the price action now painting a double top there is a possibility that the up trend in USDCHF is done for now.

    However we first need to see a penetration of the channel bottom and the 0.9970 support area to confirm this scenario.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has this morning broken above its down channel top.

    Although technically this does not indicate a change of trend the break above the channel does signal the potential for further upside momentum.

    However confirmation is now required that this up move will continue and this will happen if we see a sustained breached of the high at the 0.7740 level.

    In the mean time with the trend continuing to be down the strategy of selling into strength could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.

    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    With Gold trading close to Novembers low which can be found at the 1133.70 level the price action over the past few days has been unable to breach the 1147.50 being the most recent low.

    With a potential minor double bottom forming I am monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the 1166.35 resistance level.

    A breach of this level opens up the possibility of a continuation of the up move to the channel top at the 1175.00 level.

    However with the trend being so bearish selling into strength such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    News that storage capacity is now running low has added to the downward pressure Oil is experiencing.

    Oil on Friday broke through the 46.75 level.

    The breach of this level opens up the possibility for a test of the most recent low at 43.55 area.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 48.50 level.



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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.03.2015





    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    With the markets awaiting news of tomorrows FOMC statement EURUSD has been trading higher due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will not drop the word “patient” as a policy making tool.

    The price action is currently trading up to the its downward channel top.

    With the market being so bearish thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0685 level.



    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    The UK budget is to be released tomorrow and Cable seems to be rising.

    With this budget being the last before the next general election the possibility of give away’s being handed to the electorate and business could potential drive the Pound higher.

    This morning GBPUSD has broken above its downward channel. This is an early indication that positive bias could be returning to the Pound.

    However we I would like first to to see a weak pullback that fails to test the prior low of 1.4700 to happen before taking a further look at the long side of the trade.

    That GBPUSD is trading in a very strong down trend the strategy that has worked thus far has been to sell into strength and this could possibly remain a profitable opportunity.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5000 level.



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday USDJPY has traded back down to its channel bottom.

    With the macro trend being so bullish this area could potential offer an ideal location to add longs.

    However with the price action having also penetrated the channel bottom a move beneath the recent low in the 121.00 area could signal the beginning of a much stronger corrective pull back.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.


    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday USDCHF has experienced a strong bounce off the 0.9970 support area.

    However the resulting up move was not able to penetrate the 1.0125 prior high.

    With the price action now painting a double top there is a possibility that the up trend in USDCHF is done for now.

    However we first need to see a penetration of the channel bottom and the 0.9970 support area to confirm this scenario.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD continues to trade above the top of its down channel.

    Although technically this does not indicate a change of trend the break above the channel does signal the potential for further upside momentum.

    However confirmation is now required that this up move will continue and this will happen if we see a sustained breached of the high at the 0.7740 level.

    In the mean time with the trend continuing to be down the strategy of selling into strength could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday Gold istrading close to Novembers low which can be found at the 1133.70 level the price action over the past few days has been unable to breach the 1147.50 being the most recent low.

    With a potential minor double bottom forming I am monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the 1166.35 resistance level.

    A breach of this level opens up the possibility of a continuation of the up move to the channel top at the 1175.00 level.

    However with the trend being so bearish selling into strength such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Yesterday’s move lower for Oil tested the US$43.57 level being the prior low of January 29.

    This morning the price action is currently trading under this level at US$43.50.

    With the price action being so bearish a continuation of the downward momentum is a possibility.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 44.75 level.




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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.03.2015




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    It is Federal Reserve Statement day and the markets are expecting that the word patient is to be dropped.

    However there is a growing concern over the strength of the US Dollar and this could limit the room of maneuver for the Fed Boss Jane Yellen to act.

    In terms of price action EURUSD has painted a higher low and higher high swing which resulted in an initial test of the channel top.

    That the price action is struggling to sustain an meaningful move beneath the 1.0600 level which lines up with multiple year support should give the bulls lots of encouragement.

    Alternatively with the market being so bearish thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0500 level.



    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has been trading above the 1.4700 level as traders await the UK’s annual budget.

    The price action continues to hug the top of the down channel and it appears that there is an attempt to print a higher low formation.

    A break out of the down channel could signal higher prices and an attempt to test the 1.4810 level.

    Alternatively with the trend being so bearish selling into strength being could offer potential opportunities.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4810 level.



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted previously with USDJPY having broken above its recently formed down there is a strong possibility that we we a resumption of the prior up trend.

    Confirmation that such a move is under way would require a break above the 121.50 level.

    Alternatively a move back into the down channel followed by a breach of the last isolated low at 121.08 level could signal a continuation of lower prices.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    As posted yesterday USDCHF has this morning broken down from a converging triangle formation.

    The move lower has traded under the 1.0020 has technically changed the trend to down.

    However with the prior up trend being so bullish I am monitoring the price action as it now tests the channel bottom as this area could offer significant support.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Although AUDUSD has broken above its down channel we have yet to see any follow through.

    The price action has now consolidated within a a tight triangle formation.

    I will be today monitoring the price action for tests of the triangle pattern as this could indicate the direction of the next move.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold has broken its converging triangle formation to the down side.

    With the trend being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a possible continuation of the downward momentum.

    However as posted previously Gold is trading close to November’s low which can be found at the 1133.70 level and this could offer considerable support.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    OILUSD is finding it increasingly difficult to trade higher with every corrective rally slammed down hard by the bears.

    With the price action being so bearish a continuation of the downward momentum is a possibility.

    This afternoons Crude Oil Inventory report could add further downward pressure on the price of Oil.

    Oil is now entering territory not seen since the last financial crisis with support levels at the US$40.85 level and there are still no bulls in sight to stem this tide.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 44.75 level.



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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.03.2015




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    There has been over the past few trading sessions a rotation back into the Euro and this could have been seen by the higher low and higher high formation and the subsequent break in the channel top.

    However yesterday’s Fed statement had a huge impact on the Forex markets as the modification of strategy meant that interest policy continues to remains dovish had the affect of sending EURUSD higher.

    The strength and scale of the move higher sent EURUSD breaking through the long dated channel top.

    However the price action was unable to sustain the move higher and has during this morning’s trading has retraced significantly.

    This mornings pull back was needed and to be expected. However there has been a broad market shift into the Euro with positive flows coming from AUD, CAD, GBP, JPY, NZD, SGD, TRY and Gold. This leads me to believe that the move higher has legs to go further.

    Especially as the strong multiple year support that was highlighted in prior articles at the 1.0570/1.0600 level has held.

    There is of course always an alternative view that yesterday’s price action was just a very oversold market letting off some steam and that selling into rallies should continue to be the strategy of choice. We will have the answer to this question if EURUSD can breech the 1.0550 level.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0550 level.


    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Much like the Euro, Cable yesterday experienced a stellar rally that sent it on a massive move higher.

    With the price action having broken above the prior isolated swing high the 1 hour trend is firmly bullish.

    There has been a a correct pullback this morning and this was to be expected.

    However as long as GBPUSD can stay above the 1.4635 level the 1 hour trend remains positive.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4635 level



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    The Fed statement sent USDJPY lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.

    The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.

    This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDJPY higher.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.


    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    What I wrote for USDJPY equally applies to USDCHF.

    The Fed statement sent USDCHF lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.

    The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.

    This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDCHF higher.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0125 level.


    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    The AUDUSD this morning naturally looks like a mirror image of what has happen to USDCHF and USDJPY

    The Fed statement sent AUDUSD higher from its triangle consolidation pattern.

    The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel bottom.

    This is an areas where the Bulls will test the resolve of the Bears to push AUDUSD lower.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.



    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    The news that the Federal Reserve was not raising interest rates any time soon pushed Gold higher.

    The price action penetrated the upper level of its down channel.

    The subsequent pull back has been limited with Gold experiencing a minor correction.

    I will therefore this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the uptrend and a possible penetration of this mornings high at the 1175.00 level.

    Alternatively if Gold cannot hold above the 1166.35 level there is a possibility that we see a pullback down to the 1157.00 congestion area.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1147.50 level.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Of all the pairs that I follow Oil had the least impressive rally.

    Yes the price action did spike above a prior isolated high and yes the price action penetrated the small down channel but move higher was not as impressive as what we saw in the Euro, Pound, Gold and Aussie.

    To really be convinced that this move higher has some gas in the tank I would like first to see a successful retest of the yesterday’s high at the US$45.30 level.

    A continuation of the move lower and a breach of the 42.00 level would firmly wipe out any hopes of a rally in Oil.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 42.00 level.



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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.03.2015




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    With the FOMC meeting over after it delivered a great deal of market volatility the markets today are now focused on day 2 of the European Union summit.

    The FOMC meeting and its after affects has changed the 1 hour trend to up.

    There is strong support in the 1.0560/1.0600 area due to a multiple year trend line.

    Confirmation that the new up trend is intact will require a successful retest of the large down channel.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0550 level.



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    With the price action having broken its recent down channel I am this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of Wednesday evenings up move.

    Alternatively a breach of the 1.4635 would wipe out all the gains made and change the 1 hour trend back to down.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4635 level.


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has traded back up to the top of the down channel.

    This is an area where USDJPY could potentially find resistance and be a catalyst for a resumption of the recent down trend.

    Alternatively a breach of yesterday’s high in the 121.00 area could technically change the trend from down to up.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.00 level.


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has tested and is this morning trading above the top of its down channel.

    For the trend to change back to up we require a sustained move above the 0.9970 level.

    Alternatively with USDCHF hugging its channel top there is a possibility that the prices action resumes is downward direction.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD experienced a strong bounce off its 0.7610 support level.

    For a continuation of the move to be maintained the price action needs to trade back into its up channel.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold continues to trade above the down channel top.

    A breach of yesterday’s high is required for confirmation that the up trend is intact.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1159.50 level.


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil managed to stay above the top of its down channel and has painted a higher low.

    We now require a move above Wednesdays high of US$45.30 to confirm the up trend.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 42.00 level.



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  9. #349

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.03.2015







    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Has Merkel and Tsipras found enough common ground allow them to bury their differences?

    We should find out over the coming days.

    However EURUSD has been acting very positively over the past few days.

    Is this due to the FOMC’s Janet Yellen putting interest rate hikes on hold or is it due to the end game being in sight for the current Greek crisis.? Probably a bit of both.

    However as long as the Euro keeps trading higher why fight the momentum?

    EURUSD is now trading in a staircase pattern as the price action paints higher lows and higher highs.

    That the price action is above it price channels is also very bullish.

    I still want to see a breach of the 1.1035 level as upside bias confirmation.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0760 level


    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Not all that much has happened overnight.

    GBPUSD having broken above its down channel experienced a strong pullback.

    However support was found at the 1.4700 level and this was a catalyst for a strong bounce.

    A move above the 1.5165 level being Wednesday’s high would confirm that the up trend is intact.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4700 level.


    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    With USDJPY now experiencing a strong downward correction trying to find the next major support level becomes a priority.

    There are minor support levels at the 119.40, 119.10 and 118.70 however there is a weekly swing level at the 118.25 level.

    This level could act as a target for the sellers to trade into.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.15 level.


    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Having retested the 0.9970 area USDCHF once again reverted its downward momentum.

    A move that breaches the 0.9610 level would confirm that the down trend is in good health.

    However this level coincides with a prior monthly swing level and an area that could offer considerable support to USDCHF.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9810 level.


    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    All I would like to say is that I feel a great deal of satisfaction when the technical tools I use consistently worked.

    This is the case when AUDUSD yesterday bounced off the area of its channel bottom.

    Take a look at yesterday’s Aussie analysis.

    Market Briefing – London Open 23.03.2015 | ACFX Academy

    With the price action trading higher the next major target is the 0.8000 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing point.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7760 level


    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    With the breach the 1182.20 level Gold is now knocking on the door of another prior weekly swing level at the 1191.65.

    The move higher has been near vertical which leads me to believe that we might see some down to sideways corrective price action.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.20 level.


    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil has traded within a large consolidation pattern following the news from the FOMC.

    With the longer term trends being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a potential breakdown from this pattern.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 45.30 level.



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  10. #350

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.03.2015







    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Has Merkel and Tsipras found enough common ground allow them to bury their differences?

    We should find out over the coming days.

    However EURUSD has been acting very positively over the past few days.

    Is this due to the FOMC’s Janet Yellen putting interest rate hikes on hold or is it due to the end game being in sight for the current Greek crisis.? Probably a bit of both.

    However as long as the Euro keeps trading higher why fight the momentum?

    EURUSD is now trading in a staircase pattern as the price action paints higher lows and higher highs.

    That the price action is above it price channels is also very bullish.

    I still want to see a breach of the 1.1035 level as upside bias confirmation.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0760 level


    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Not all that much has happened overnight.

    GBPUSD having broken above its down channel experienced a strong pullback.

    However support was found at the 1.4700 level and this was a catalyst for a strong bounce.

    A move above the 1.5165 level being Wednesday’s high would confirm that the up trend is intact.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4700 level.


    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    With USDJPY now experiencing a strong downward correction trying to find the next major support level becomes a priority.

    There are minor support levels at the 119.40, 119.10 and 118.70 however there is a weekly swing level at the 118.25 level.

    This level could act as a target for the sellers to trade into.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.15 level.


    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Having retested the 0.9970 area USDCHF once again reverted its downward momentum.

    A move that breaches the 0.9610 level would confirm that the down trend is in good health.

    However this level coincides with a prior monthly swing level and an area that could offer considerable support to USDCHF.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9810 level.


    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    All I would like to say is that I feel a great deal of satisfaction when the technical tools I use consistently worked.

    This is the case when AUDUSD yesterday bounced off the area of its channel bottom.

    Take a look at yesterday’s Aussie analysis.

    Market Briefing – London Open 23.03.2015 | ACFX Academy

    With the price action trading higher the next major target is the 0.8000 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing point.

    From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7760 level


    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    With the breach the 1182.20 level Gold is now knocking on the door of another prior weekly swing level at the 1191.65.

    The move higher has been near vertical which leads me to believe that we might see some down to sideways corrective price action.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.20 level.


    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil has traded within a large consolidation pattern following the news from the FOMC.

    With the longer term trends being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a potential breakdown from this pattern.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 45.30 level.



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