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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #401

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.06.2015




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD closed the day lower.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1380 level.

    Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1275 level.

    From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1200 level.









    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD closed the day higher.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5550 level.

    Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5350 level.

    From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5250 level.





    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY closed the day lower.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 122.75 level.

    Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDJPY test the 123.60 level.

    From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 124.60 level.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF closed the day higher.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9250 level.

    Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9330 level.

    From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9330 level.








    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD closed the day lower.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7820 level.

    Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7750 level.

    From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7700 level.








    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold closed the day higher.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1185.50 level.

    Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1170.00 level.

    From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1170.00 level.






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil closed the day higher.

    This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 61.50 level.

    Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.

    From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 57.80 level.





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  2. #402

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.06.2015



    The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has upped the game of brinkmanship by saying that there are no plans to present new proposals.

    On the contrary Varoufakis wants there to be further meetings where negotiations can take place. Any new proposals will be presented at the upcoming European Finance Ministers meeting that is being held in Luxembourg on June 18.

    With deadlines looming it wold appear that the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras and Varoufakis are trying to push the negotiations down to the wire in the hope that the Europeans will blink and cave into the Greek demands for debt restructuring.

    There is a looming threat of a miscalculation and an accidental Grexit triggered by the attempts of the Greek Government to sow the seeds of doubt in the minds of their European counterparts. Tsipras has decided to put the game theory that Varoufakis is an expert of to the test and hope that the fear of contagion will push the Europeans towards a compromise.

    However there has been a hardening of views on the part of the creditors. Donald Tusk the European Union President has only in the past few days by said “There is no more time for gambling. The day is coming, I am afraid, that someone says the game is over.”

    The Greek Government was not voted to power with a mandate of negotiate or leave the Euro. In fact the Greek public on the whole what to stay part of the European family and have no wish to enter into new unchartered adventures.

    Furthermore the current Greek Government has shown itself to be lacking the technical skills to navigate the introduction of a Drachma MK2. The economic fallout of an introduction of a new currency would lead to an economic meltdown which would lead to Pensioners and Public Sector Employees either not getting paid or seeing their salaries and purchasing power drastically reduced.

    The Greek Government has battled against the European demands for further austerity but a re-introduction of the Drachma will bring about a drop in living standards which the SYRIZA administration has battled to avoid.

    The current extension to the Greek financial support program ends on June 30. This coincides with the Greek Government having to pay back to the IMF EUR 1.5 billion. Without a new agreement it remains uncertain how the Greek Government can finance this payment.

    Although a failure to pay the IMF on June 30 technical does not put Greece into default the lack of money means that every repayment deadline is now turning into a mini crisis. There is another date on the horizon which could make it an uncomfortable summer. This is on July 20 when the Greek Government has to pay back some EUR 3.5 billion to the ECB. This is when the end game finally happens as a failure to payback this money would effectively cut Greece and its banking system adrift from the European Central Bank.

    With just over a month to go before the ECB deadline this game of chicken has to either end in an ugly car crash on a compromise will have to be reached. I do not see the Europeans or the IMF backing down on the two key issues of reform of Pensions and the Public Sector. If Tsipras has to swallow the bitterest pill he will ever have to take a referendum or a snap election looms on the horizon.



    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1432

    Target 2: 1.1132

    Projected range: 0.0150 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.1250




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5734

    Target 2: 1.5466

    Projected range: 0.0134 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.5485







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.46

    Target 2: 122.34

    Projected range: 1.06 ATR

    Daily control level: 124.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9411

    Target 2: 0.9169

    Projected range: 0.0121 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.9390






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.2427

    Target 2: 1.2215

    Projected range: 0.0106 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.2350







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7864

    Target 2: 0.7664

    Projected range: 0.0100 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.7700







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1198.08

    Target 2: 1173.52

    Projected range: 12.28 ATR

    Daily control level: 1175.30





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1:61.28

    Target 2: 57.94

    Projected range: 1.67 ATR

    Daily control level: 61.50






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  3. #403

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.06.2015


    Once again the Federal Open Market Committee will take centre stage with Janet Yellen this evening due to deliver another eagerly awaited FOMC Statement.

    This event which takes place 8 times a year will be monitored closely by traders and investors alike. In recent times, the FOMC Statements post the 2008 financial crisis has gained greater significance as a major event on the economic calendar.

    This is due to the Federal Reserve, much like other major central banks such as the Bank of England and ECB, actively using “forward guidance” as a major policy tool. By means of “forward guidance” and through a careful manipulation of what I term as “Fed Speak” the FOMC has been able with some degree of success manage market expectations.

    However with equity markets trading at the highs of this strong bull market there are major concerns surrounding the aftermath of an expected Fed tightening of interest rates that could take place as early as this summer.

    A US interest rate increase will signal the end the recent era of cheap money. After some 7 years where investors made easy profits due to ideal market conditions, it will be of interest how market participants will react and adapt to a period of normalized interest rates.

    Many traders and investors remember the times when global interest and inflation rates were much higher than they are today. However there are many traders, investors, hedge fund and portfolio managers who due to their age have never experienced periods of rising interest rates.

    Furthermore, many of the trading algorithms that are being used currently, are based upon the present market conditions. Can these same systems be optimized to allow for periods of greater interest and inflation rate differentials across the world economy?

    Back to today’s events and the FOMC has become rather data dependent. Furthermore the recent trend in data be it job, inflation or growth numbers has been inconsistent and erratic. The soft to trend less nature of the data that has been released to the markets thus far makes trying to discern what the Federal Reserve’s intentions are very difficult to comprehend. In fact does the FOMC chairwoman Janet Yellen herself know with any certainty when to flick the switch and raise interest rates? Furthermore is there any type of consensus among the other decision makers of the Fed.

    I would be very surprised if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates this evening. There is a stronger possibility that we see a rate hike in September / October. For this to happen we will need better and more consistent data which would enforce a more hawkish outlook on interest rates. My gut feeling is that the FOMC will begin to normalize the interest rate picture in Q1 of 2016. Such a more cautious approach would suit the equity markets and give more time for all market participants to adapt to the new interest rate reality.

    As for what I expect to happen today, I would not be surprised if leading up to the FOMC event that market volatility to drop off. However volatility should come back into the market after the statement is made. As the Fed wants to move on interest rates I see the US Dollar strengthening in the medium term. However there may be a dip lower after the statement if as expected interest rates are kept on hold.

    With respect to the EURUSD there has been much resilience with the Euro holding firm despite all the negative headlines that surround Greece. The key area of 1.1400 / 1.1500 continues to be a target that could be tested.



    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1397

    Target 2: 1.1097

    Projected range: 0.0150 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.1200






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5777

    Target 2: 1.5515

    Projected range: 0.0131 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.5550





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.38

    Target 2: 122.34

    Projected range: 1.02 ATR

    Daily control level: 124.00






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9442

    Target 2: 0.9198

    Projected range: 0.0122 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.9330







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.2395

    Target 2: 1.2187

    Projected range: 0.0104 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.2350







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7846

    Target 2: 0.7656

    Projected range: 0.0095 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.7700








    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1193.77

    Target 2: 1169.17

    Projected range: 12.30 ATR

    Daily control level: 1175.30








    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 61.62

    Target 2: 58.46

    Projected range: 1.58 ATR

    Daily control level: 61.50







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  4. #404

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.06.2015



    Yet another Fed statement has come and gone and not much has really happened.

    The Federal Reserve is very much still a hostage to data. Although Q1 data was very soft the FOMC chairwoman’s assessment is that the US economy is on the right track and that and a normalization of the interest rate environment is on the cards in 2015.

    We do have three more data cycles leading up to the September meeting. Therefore there is still time to see some good data which will give the Federal Reserve the green signal to hike rates from their current historic lows of 0.25%.

    It would therefore seem that all options are on the table with Janet Yellen adopting a wait and see approach to the incoming data.

    Are we ready for an interest rate rise in September? I don’t think the markets have adjusted to the new reality. A preference for Q1 2016 still seems to the most popular timing for the inevitable to happen.

    However if during the coming months the data does support a future interest rate hike I do not expect the FOMC to make bold moves in raising the cost of capital. I do however expect the FOMC to test the water, increase interest rates and monitor the effects before deciding on subsequent rate increases.

    With respect to division within the Federal Reserve there does not seem to be any obvious splits between members who have a dovish or hawkish view on future interest rate policy with all members accepting that this long period of historic low interest rates is coming to a close.


    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1490

    Target 2: 1.1180

    Projected range: 0.0155 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.1200












    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5991

    Target 2: 1.5709

    Projected range: 0.141 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.5620






    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.69

    Target 2: 122.51

    Projected range: 1.09 ATR

    Daily control level: 124.50





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9335

    Target 2: 0.9099

    Projected range: 0.0118 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.9330






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.2329

    Target 2: 1.2123

    Projected range: 0.0103 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.2350





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7846

    Target 2: 0.7648

    Projected range: 0.0099 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.7780








    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1198.21

    Target 2: 1172.49

    Projected range: 12.86 ATR

    Daily control level: 1175.30







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 61.33

    Target 2: 58.19

    Projected range: 1.57 ATR

    Daily control level: 61.50












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  5. #405

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.06.2015




    Yesterday Eurogroup Finance Ministers met in Brussels to discuss a Greek debt crisis that has dominated the financial headlines for over six months.

    The meeting that was also attended by the International Monetary Fund was an attempt to find an 11th hour solution that would avert a debt default by a member of the European Union and Eurozone.

    It is feared that a default or risk of default would make the run that is currently effecting Greek Banks would lead to the European Central Bank having to withdraw Emergency Liquidity Support. Such a move would cause a systemic failure of the Greek banks and could prompt an exit of the European single currency.

    In the past week alone Greeks have withdrawn some 1.5bn eur from atms. The liquidity squeeze that is currently causing the Greek banking system so much stress only magnified the importance of the task at hand during Thursdays deadline Eurogroup summit.

    The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis at the meeting insisted that his Government had delivered a complete and viable solution to its European partners and IMF.

    However the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem disagreed saying that the Greek Government needs to present a “credible” proposal and “It is still possible to find an agreement and extend the current programme before the end of the month, but the ball is clearly in the Greek court to seize that last opportunity.”

    The Mediterranean nation now has a little under two weeks remaining to reach a solution with all its creditors. The deadline is June 30 when the current agreement ends and a payment that is a little over EUR 1.5 billion is due to be paid to the IMF.

    IMF chief Christine Lagarde also dismissed the Greek Governments current proposals as not going far enough and at the same time urged that the dialogue continue so that an agreement is reached.

    Three has been a definite shift in the discussions with a realization that the current Greek debt burden of euro 320 billion which is a huge debt 180% of GBP is unsustainable. To put Greek States debt obligations into some context the UK has a debt burden of roughly half this ratio when compared to its own GDP.

    The urgent issue now is how Greece is going to find the funds to repay the IMF EUR 1.5 billion on June 30 and eur 3.5 billion on July 20 to the ECB and other central banks. Even if this payments are met the Greek Government has to find another 14 billion in repayments by the end 2015

    The Greek Government has run out of money and this has been confirmed during the week by the Governor of the Bank of Greece. The only way the Greek Government will be able to able to make the pending payments in June and July is if the last tranche of some eur 7.2 billion of the current bailout programme is released. However for this to happen the Europeans want the Greek Government to implement economic changes in areas such as pensions, VAT and the budget surplus. Such a move would be against the electoral promises made by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and another bitter pill for the Greek public to swallow.

    So we are now left with the biggest high stakes games of chicken. At stake is not only the continued membership of Greece in the Eurozone but also eur 320 billion of European tax payer’s money. The aftermath of a Grexit is difficult to comprehend but the idea that the effects would be contained ignore the potential of a market overreaction that pushes other periphery countries also to the brink of disaster.

    What is more worrisome for the West is the relationship between the Greek and Russian Governments. The close cultural and historic ties between both countries could just push Greece further to the east politically.

    The Tsipras Government was never elected on a platform of agreement or Grexit. Therefore it is not his decision to plan or by accident trigger a Greek exit from the Eurozone system. However with time running out a bold decision has to be made.

    The logical decision would be for the Europeans offering a completion of the current bailout programme in exchange for the reforms they demand and a pledge to restructure the debt burden.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1516

    Target 2: 1.1198

    Projected range: 0.0159 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.1200









    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.6020

    Target 2: 1.5740

    Projected range: 0.0140 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.5800







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.03

    Target 2: 121.89

    Projected range: 1.07 ATR

    Daily control level: 124.50






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9328

    Target 2: 0.9096

    Projected range: 0.0116 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.9335






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.2324

    Target 2: 1.2118

    Projected range: 0.0103 ATR

    Daily control level: 1.2350







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7904

    Target 2: 0.7694

    Projected range: 0.0105 ATR

    Daily control level: 0.7640






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1214.62

    Target 2: 1188.74

    Projected range: 12.94 ATR

    Daily control level: 1175.30






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 62.12

    Target 2: 58.95

    Projected range: 1.59 ATR

    Daily control level: 61.50










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  6. #406

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.06.2015


    With the clock counting down to the June 30 deadline in would appear that the proposal made by the Greek Government over the weekend has added new impetus into the debt negotiations.

    On June 30 the current bailout programme comes to a close. If the Government of Alexis Tsipras can reach an agreement by this date then the final tranche of EUR 7.2 billion will be released to it.

    This payment will enable the Greek Government to fulfil its obligation to the IMF and make a payment of EUR 1.6 billion.

    The new proposal which was submitted by the SYRIZA administration has offered some concessions to the Eurogroup and IMF. These concession include new taxes on the well off and businesses and selective increases in VAT. However the red lines of no reductions in Public Sector wages and Pensions remain.

    The current proposal will undoubtedly help in contributing a budget surplus but the idea of hitting the higher earners and businesses could have a retrograde effect in the long run. The new taxes could lead to the brightest minds leaving the country and profitable businesses transferring their tax obligations to lower cost centres.

    A move to encourage business and entrepreneurship by the rewarding and not penalizing success should have been sought. This policy that has been adopted by recent Conservative Governments in the United Kingdom with a great deal of success and was a key component of an economic policy which led to a revival of the United Kingdom’s economy.

    Unfortunately the Greek Government has found it hard to release itself of the shackles that ties it to its far left roots. In the spirit of compromise having a proposal be it a mediocre one agreed upon will avert the current crisis.

    It is hoped however that post June 30 that the current Greek Government could begin to adopt more business and investment friendly policies. This would go hand in hand with a thorough review of the public sector and pension system. Furthermore there needs to be a commitment to bring the privatizations of state enterprises that is now on hold back on track.

    In exchange for the above the creditors will offer much needed and overdue debt restructuring.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1480

    Target 2: 1.1200

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0140

    Daily control level: 1.1410





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5952

    Target 2: 1.5690

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 1.5905






    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.39

    Target 2: 122.33

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03

    Daily control level: 122.45






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour:

    Target 1: 0.9323

    Target 2: 0.9103

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 0.9150







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2406

    Target 2: 1.2212

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.2200







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7823

    Target 2: 0.7629

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 0.7795






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1198.48

    Target 2: 1172.84

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.82

    Daily control level: 1205.85







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 61.77

    Target 2: 58.63

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57

    Daily control level: 61.90






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  7. #407

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.06.2015



    After what seems an eternity of talking and bickering between the Greek Government and its creditors it looks like we will finally have a deal that saves Greece from the clutches of a debt default and the inevitable fallout out of the Euro area.

    A deal is expected to be agreed upon within the coming days. However the prospect of getting the legislation passed through the parliaments of member states of the Eurozone could turn out to be a tricky undertaking.

    It is not certain that all the individual governments can persuade their parliaments to back the legislation. Although it seems likely that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel will impose herself enough on her colleagues to ensure that the legislation is passed in the German Bundestag we may have surprises from belligerent northern European deputies who could decide that this deal is bad for Europe. The notable country that will keep markets on edge is Finland. This Finish Government has been a vocal critic of the Greek Government and has taken a harder the line than most of its European partners.

    The other concern is of course what will happen in the Greek parliament. Although the Greek Government holds a large majority in the national legislature it is far from certain that the SYRIZA administration will receive unanimous backing from its rank and file elements. There is the prospect of the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras having to request support from the opposition parties of the Greek establishment.

    So with a deal likely on the cards the question is will approval be received in time for the payment of EUR 1.7 billion be made to the IMF? Probably not but this is a non-issue if it is certain that no barriers be it legislative or legal are put in the way of sealing this deal.

    This leads us to the deal in question. It would appear that the Greek Government has offered enough concessions to its European partners to have a deal approved. That the Greek Government has given some ground on pensions by abolishing early retirement is a good move.

    However of what benefit is it to penalize the wealthy and businesses that have annual net incomes of greater than EUR 500,000. These are the very persons and organizations that Greece needs to keep on side if the country is to move forward and out of this dreaded recession / depression.

    The success stories of the Greek economy have an aversion to paying tax because they see a Greek Government that spends the funds at its disposal in a liberal manner on a bloated and inefficient public sector. Effectively for years the Greek Government has implemented a progressive tax policy where it taxes the rich and gives to those privileged enough to work for the Greek state.

    The news that the SYRIZA administration will now target the rich will be greeted by cheers and laughter in the private banks, wealth management companies and accountancy practices in London, Luxembourg and Geneva. For sure accountants will be booking their flights to Athens and Mykonos over the coming days.





    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1307

    Target 2: 1.1027

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0140

    Daily control level: 1.1410






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5860

    Target 2: 1.5598

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level:1.5905







    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.96

    Target 2: 122.90

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03

    Daily control level: 122.45








    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9448

    Target 2: 0.9222

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 0.9150







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2421

    Target 2: 1.2227

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.2200







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7828

    Target 2: 0.7642

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.7795








    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1191.01

    Target 2: 1165.49

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76

    Daily control level: 1205.85







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 62.70

    Target 2: 59.64

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53

    Daily control level: 59










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  8. #408

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.06.2015



    The hope and optimism that flooded through the markets over the likelihood that a resolution to the Greek debt crisis has faded away. The mood has changed as the reality that the Greek Government and the creditors are not even on the same book let alone the same page.

    Meetings late into the night between the European Commission, European Central Bank and the Greek Government did not lead as expected to a breakthrough.

    The collapse in the talks was triggered by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has questioned the ability of the Greek Government to increase revenues through the imposition of higher taxes on the wealthy and Businesses.

    Prior Greek Governments had claimed that by targeting the enormous Greek black economy that they would be able to increase revenues and reduce the deficit. However attempts at reforming tax collection in Greece have so far failed. Therefore the IMF felt that the Greek offer to increase tax revenues could not guarantee the necessary outcome.

    A more balanced plan that brought the Greek pension system in line with rest of Europe and a concerted effort to trim the public sector is needed. However the SYRIZA administration decided to stick to its red lines which are a product of its ideological stance and refused to budge on reforming these two burdensome sectors of the Greek economy.

    The preference in the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras words was to place the burden of further austerity on those groups which had suffered the least during the shock of the this long drawn out crisis. I am still not sure how adding an extra burden on businesses will encourage growth and employment in the Greek economy.

    As the June 30 deadline draws ever closer the flurry of meetings and activity is increasing with Alexis Tsipras is due meet the creditors in the Morning. The deluge of news has of course added volatility to the markets. These current market conditions should continue up to the end of month deadline.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1332

    Target 2: 1.1078

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 1.1235






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5832

    Target 2: 1.5582

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125

    Daily control level: 1.5800









    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.80

    Target 2: 122.88

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.96

    Daily control level: 124.35







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9448

    Target 2: 0.9222

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 0.9230








    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2482

    Target 2: 1.2286

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.2275







    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7791

    Target 2: 0.7609

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.7770








    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1187.27

    Target 2: 1162.75

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.26

    Daily control level: 1180.00







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 61.82

    Target 2: 58.62

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.60

    Daily control level: 59.00







    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

  9. #409

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.06.2015



    The latest failure to reach an agreement which resolves the Greek debt crisis continues to tax the minds of European leaders and Finance Ministers.

    It is also beginning to make the markets jittery and adding to market volatility and spikes in the price action.

    There was much optimism earlier in the week with the Greek Government presenting what many saw as the first serious proposal since they came to power five months ago.

    The IMF however baulked at the Greek plan which they felt was heavy on tax increases and light on budget cuts.

    The Greek Government is unwilling to cross its red lines of cutting pensions and salaries or head counts in the public sector.

    This has led the IMF to the conclusion that the math simple does not add up and that the Greek Government will not be able to boost revenues through tax increases.

    Far from it, increasing taxes on the wealthy and businesses could actually stifle economic growth.

    The International Monetary Fund’s aim is for the Greek Government to create a plan that would allow for stable future budgets and the generation of budget surpluses.

    Interestingly unlike its fellow creditors made up of European Union member states the IMF has promoted the idea of debt relief. The Greek debt is astronomical for an economy of its size and the IMF has correctly recognized that this debt is unmanageable.

    The size of the Greek public debt is not the fault of the current Greek Government. The current crisis is due to the borrow and spend policies of prior PASOK and Nea Democratia Governments.

    However, unfortunately this Greek Government needs to reach an agreement by June 30 if it is going to avoid defaulting to the IMF.

    Therefore a compromise position has to be found that ticks all the boxes of the international creditors to the Greek Government.

    This will mean the Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras backing down and presenting and unpalatable agreement to SYRIZA members of Parliament in the Greek legislature.

    With the discussion having moved forward somewhat in recent weeks, it would appear that debt relief is now on the agenda.

    What we really need to see now is an agreement which states that debt relief will be discussed if the Greek Government agrees to the reforms that are being promoted by the IMF and the Europeans.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1321

    Target 2: 1.1087

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.2350










    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5870

    Target 2: 1.5626

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

    Daily control level: 1.5800









    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.53

    Target 2: 122.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.91

    Daily control level: 124.35







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9461

    Target 2: 0.9265

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 0.9320








    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2423

    Target 2: 1.2227

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.2275





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7798

    Target 2: 0.7624

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.7770







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1185.33

    Target 2: 1160.85

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.24

    Daily control level: 1180.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 61.12

    Target 2: 58.18

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

    Daily control level: 59.00





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  10. #410

    Default

    MORE ON ACFXblog.com




    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.06.2015



    It has been rumored for weeks and now these very rumors have come true. The Greek Government has announced capital controls on its banks. The move taken by the Greek Government was not a surprise and inevitable. There had been some hope that the European Central Bank would continue to support the country’s banking system through its emergency liquidity programme.

    However the ELA programme was introduced to assist solvent banks that were suffering from the effects of a short term liquidity crisis and was never meant to be used as a tool to support one or other political agenda. Mean it or not the ECB chief Mario Draghi has taken a decision that sends the Greek State closer to the precipice and it only needs the slightest of pushes for the first sovereign default to occur within the Eurozone.

    With the ELA capped by the ECB, what is even more upsetting for a Greek Government that campaigned on an election promise of no more debt is that if Greece does default the EUR 89 billion that the Greek banking system currently owes to the ECB will be added to the Greek national debt of EUR 323 billion.

    The announcement by the Greek Government of capital controls on its banks now means that ordinary citizens can only withdraw EUR 60 a day. The Greek Prime Minister said “In the coming days, what is needed is patience and composure. The bank deposits of the Greek people are fully secure”. However he did not add that the deposits will be in Drachma.

    So with 5 months of wasted opportunities we have come to the point where the Greek Government has to find EUR 1.6 billion to pay to the IMF by tomorrow June 30. It became obvious to all that as this deadline neared the Greek Government had no intention of making this payment without a new deal that solves the issue of debt viability.

    The Greek Government has its red line that it does not want to cross. This being that those who have suffered the most during the long and drawn out recession, the pensioners and the public sector workers should not be hit.

    It was the Greek Government’s preference that the burden be shared among the countries wealthy and businesses. I am very much against this policy as I feel that the motor of any successful economy are the middle classes and viable businesses.

    I had a long discussion about this very subject over the weekend with a friend who holds a senior position in a successful Greek shipping company in Athens. When the subject of public sector salaries came up he said that state employees in the past had enjoyed privileges which they obtained through political favor but those days have long gone with salaries having been cut on average by some 40%. As for the pensioners, their majority of retirees are paid small monthly amounts and have to support with this money their extended family of unemployed sons and daughters.

    He went on further to say that the current Government for all its failings had won the election because the political establishment of Greece had failed to stand up for the rights of its citizens. In my view SYRIZA promised the moon and the stars to the Greek people. Its election promises were never going to be achievable in the face of stiff opposition of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her political allies.

    However there was a need to revisit the whole concept of European austerity as the medicine that was administered was poisoning the patient. The leaders of Europe have proclaimed on many occasions through the debt discussions that austerity had worked for Spain, Portugal and Ireland but has it in reality? I just see a sticking plastered that covers a large and festering wound.

    What has followed on from austerity is the ECB now embarking on a plan of Quantitative Easing which generates even more debt. The longer term effects of QE are not known and it is unclear if the end result will be a stronger Europe. Do we actually need any more debt added to the already considerable pile that is owed?

    Greece is an experiment on austerity taken to the extremes. An experiment that has gone on for too long, has effected too many people with disastrous consequences and destroyed the hopes and aspirations of the youth of an entire country.

    The European project was meant to bring the nations of this continent together not to cause divisions of the haves and have nots. The Euro was good for only one country, the Germany. German industry through the cheap Euro allowed it to export BMW’s and Mercs to Greece and Spain. The citizens of these countries could afford to buy products because money was being thrown at them in the form of credit to both individuals and governments. In hindsight the debt should never have been taken but at the same time the big banks of Germany and France should have been more cautious with their policy on lending.

    The current Greek Government did not create this debt mountain. This was due to the cosy relationship between successive Greek establishment governments and the Banks of Northern Europe. The SYRIZA government had every right to question the agreements that had been signed in the name of the Greek people because the leaders of PASOK and New Democracy had made a pig’s ear of what had gone on before.

    I had mentioned in prior posts that a referendum was a strong possibility. The proposals on offer cut through the red lines of the SYRIZA Government. Prime Minister Tsipras had no other option but to put the proposal to the people. However capital controls create stark reality for Greek people leading up to referendum and could taint the outcome of the vote.

    What we now have is a clash of ideologies. Will the democratic right of the Greek people prevail or will the referendum force the electorate to capitulate and vote in a plan that they do not like? I think that fear of a reintroduction of a much devalued Drachma would push the Greek population to vote yes.

    If the “YES” vote wins on Sunday, the damage to the SYRIZA party would be immense. The scenario of the Prime Minister with views that reside on the radical left of the political spectrum having to implement policies of austerity does not sound a viable solution. I see another election being called shortly.

    On the other hand, the Greek people are well known for their independent spirit. Although the “No” vote would cause the Greek people a lot of pain I believe that the damage caused to the Euro could have a wider impact. This is due to the shadow that the Spanish general election casts over the Euro project. In December Spain holds general elections. A victory for SYRIZA in Greece will become a beacon of hope for Podemos in Spain but also for populist groups of the left and right throughout Europe. The nightmare scenario for Chancellor Merkel is for Podemos to be victorious in Spain taking the whole European debt crisis to another level.

    What is needed is a new plan for Europe. I argued for this when the Greek debt crisis once more took centre stage earlier in the year. There needs to be a real plan to address the huge sovereign debt levels throughout Europe. Time has become a commodity in short supply with deadline after deadline pushing the European project from crisis to crisis.

    However time in reality is the one commodity that we have in abundance. The solution is very simple, create a more robust frame work for Eurozone sovereign debt and budget deficits and extend the tenure of the debt to 30, 50 or even 100 years. Such a move would allow for the playing field in Europe to be leveled and allow all the citizens of this great continent to work and prosper.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1131

    Target 2: 1.0877

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 1.2350






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5804

    Target 2: 1.5564

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 1.5800







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.73

    Target 2: 121.73

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.00

    Daily control level: 124.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9484

    Target 2: 1.223

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 0.9320






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2430

    Target 2: 1.2238

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.2275







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7798

    Target 2: 0.7624

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.7770






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1197.03

    Target 2: 1171.51

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76

    Daily control level: 1170.45






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 60.27

    Target 2: 57.39

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

    Daily control level: 60.00







    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

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