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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #411

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.06.2015



    The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday issued a statement that was a clear warning to the Greek people.

    A “No” vote “would signal that Greece wants to distance itself from the euro zone and Europe”.

    This is a comment that I take great exception to. There is no mechanism or legal remedy that will force Greece out of the Eurozone.

    A few years ago the city of Detroit was declared Bankrupt and there are now fears that the US state of California could go the same way. There was never any talk of Detroit printing its own currency and I am sure that the administration of California is not contemplating the introduction of its own Dollar.

    The Balkan country of Montenegro does not have its own currency. Even though it is not a member of either the European Union or Eurozone the Montenegro Government has decided to adopt the Euro for reasons of price stability.

    The Greek Government will therefore have no legal obligation to ditch the Euro however in reality it would be difficult to see how the State can carry on and honor its obligations to its public servants, pensioners and local creditors.

    In this case the Greek Government may have to resort to printing a new Drachma that will run in parallel to the Euro. Effectively Greece will have a duel currency system.

    Such a system has existed for many years in Central and Latin America where local currency is legal tender but businesses prefer to transact in US Dollar.

    As for Greece being forced out of Europe Juncker has overstated the consequences of a “No” vote as the European Union consists of countries that belong to the Euro area and others such as the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden who have retained their local currency.
    Juncker’s comments were made to influence the democratic process in a sovereign nation within the European Union and as such is bordering into the realms of political interference.

    These comments will not be the last made over the coming days leading up to Sunday’s referendum vote. Talk of exiting the Eurozone will now be weighing heavy in the thoughts of the Greek electorate. A Vote for “No” campaign will inevitably force the Greek Government to introduce a new local currency whereas a “Yes” vote will condemn Greece to even more austerity and social unrest.

    If I was a citizen of Greece I would be very split on how to vote and I assume the majority of Greeks would probably have the same feelings. Logically for all the promise of more austerity a “Yes” vote at least maintains the status quo. It can only be hoped that post the election the decision makers in Brussel and Berlin take note of what has gone and make a serious effort to tackle the European Union’s chronic debt problem.

    My heart however is telling me to vote “No” and take my chances outside the Eurozone. If the Germans want their money back then they need to address the concerns and worries of the Greek people.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1367

    Target 2: 1.1103

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

    Daily control level: 1.0950






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5850

    Target 2: 1.5624

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.5800








    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.42

    Target 2: 121.64

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.89

    Daily control level: 124.50








    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9356

    Target 2: 0.9140

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 0.9430








    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2495

    Target 2: 1.2311

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

    Daily control level: 1.2300







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7765

    Target 2: 0.7591

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.7770







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1192.12

    Target 2: 1167.90

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.11

    Daily control level: 1170.45





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 59.65

    Target 2: 56.89

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.38

    Daily control level: 59.00







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  2. #412

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.07.2015




    Last night the deadline for a EUR1.6 billion payment came and went with no payment made by the Greek Government.

    With further deadlines of larger payments to the ECB on the horizon in the middle of July the door is ajar and a Grexit is becoming a strong possibility.

    So with so much at stake Greeks last night took to the streets of Athens and demonstrated outside the Greek Parliament at Sygntama Square.

    However it was not the pro Government supporters who turned up but supports of the “YES” campaign.

    There are now genuine fears that a “NO” vote would send Greece down the road to bankruptcy and international financial isolation.

    This process has already started. As Greeks line up to withdraw their EUR 60 daily limit from fast emptying cash machines the news that the European Central Bank has effectively cut the Greek Banking system adrift will only heighten the sense of anxiety among the general public.

    There are hopes that between now and Sunday a rabbit is pulled out of the hat and an agreement is found but the Europeans are now in no mood to compromise and the Greek Prime Minister has left himself with no room to manoeuvre.

    So we are now heading into Sunday and the biggest decision the history of the European project and the recent history of Greece.

    If the “NO” vote is victorious the Greek people will have to endure some harsher times before there is any economic recovery.

    A “YES” vote will be also be a hollow and bitter victory as Greeks have to complete years of continued austerity.

    A “YES” vote would also mean that the Tsipras experiment like most things that burn very bright is soon to be extinguished as the Greek Prime Minister will have little choice but take the decent decision and resign his post.

    In reality neither decision to vote “YES” or “NO” solves the countries or even Europe’s problems. If Greece had viable industries and export markets I would go with my heart and urge that the Greek people vote “NO”.

    However Greece is no Russia of the late 1990’s. Set adrift from Europe I worry on the social impact that a “NO” vote will have. With huge youth unemployment a no vote will only act as a spur for an acceleration of emigration of the countries young and brightest to the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Canada and USA.

    My head says vote “YES” and renegotiate within the European club so as to make the Greek debt viable in the longer term.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1274

    Target 2: 1.1018

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

    Daily control level: 1.1275








    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5822

    Target 2: 1.5602

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5800






    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.31

    Target 2: 121.67

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82

    Daily control level: 124.00






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9458

    Target 2: 0.9242

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 0.9430






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2584

    Target 2: 1.2396

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 1.2350







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7788

    Target 2: 0.7618

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7660






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1184.58

    Target 2: 1160.36

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.11

    Daily control level: 1187.90







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 60.41

    Target 2: 57.54

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

    Daily control level: 59.70








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  3. #413

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.07.2015



    Today at 1:30pm London time the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Employment Change.

    This statistic measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

    Moreover, this crucial economic data is published shortly after the end of the month. The combination of earliness and importance causes this monthly release to have high impact on the foreign exchange markets.

    The traders’ concerns about this figure come from the fact that job creation is a significant indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of overall economic activity.

    The oscillations in the value of the indicator, which has been positive since November 2010, suggested tendency towards higher values during the second half of 2014 and 2015.

    The last released statistic reached 280,000 individuals whereas the consensus number for the last month amounts to 231,000. If the actual figure turns out to be higher than what forecasts suggest, this release is likely to have a positive impact on the strength of the U.S. dollar.

    Since Non-Farm Employment Change Report will be made public at the same time as data on U.S. monthly unemployment rate, USD currency pairs might experience higher volatility.




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1180

    Target 2: 1.0926

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0180

    Daily control level: 1.1150








    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5723

    Target 2: 1.5503

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5800







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.98

    Target 2: 122.33

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.83

    Daily control level: 124.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9586

    Target 2: 0.9372

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 0.9230








    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2686

    Target 2: 1.2492

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.2350







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7729

    Target 2: 0.7559

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7750







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1180.37

    Target 2: 1156.03

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.17

    Daily control level: 1179.00







    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 58.40

    Target 2: 55.36

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.52

    Daily control level: 59.70








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  4. #414

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.07.2015



    Today at 9.30am London time Markit Economics will release the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United Kingdom.

    Markit Economics is an independent, global provider of some of the world’s most significant business surveys. Its indicators are closely watched by the financial market participants since they provide some of the earliest signals of economic performance and hence hints on possible economic policies.

    Calculation of the PMI is based on data obtained through the survey of purchasing managers in the services industry. Respondents are asked to rate the relative level of general business conditions such as employment, production, prices, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

    The quick reaction of businesses to market conditions and the fact that their purchasing managers have the most relevant insight into the company’s view of these conditions are the reasons why the PMI is a leading indicator.

    Therefore, this release is likely to have high impact on the value of the British pound.
    Furthermore, values above 50.0 indicate industry expansion whereas values below this threshold suggest contraction.

    Services PMI figures for the UK have been ranging constantly from 54.9 to 62.5 since June 2013. In the previous period of reference this index reached 56.5 level while the forecasts for the current period are more optimistic amounting to 57.4.

    The actual level of this monthly indicator beating the expectations is interpreted as a good sign for the currency.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1207

    Target 2: 1.0959

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.1150






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5712

    Target 2: 1.5498

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.5735







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.88

    Target 2: 122.08

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.85

    Daily control level: 124.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9535

    Target 2: 0.9329

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 0.9502







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2639

    Target 2: 1.2439

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.2350







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7721

    Target 2: 0.7543

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7640






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1177.53

    Target 2: 1154.01

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.76

    Daily control level: 1179.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 57.94

    Target 2: 54.88

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53

    Daily control level: 57.80








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  5. #415

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.07.2015



    As I wrote this article last night, the first indications announced on Greek television would be that the “No” campaign would be victorious in this much anticipated referendum.

    The early reports would soon prove to be a correct as the “No” campaign romped home to a resounding and famous victory. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras must right now be feeling vindicated in his decision to hold a hastily put together referendum.

    Although this vote is a testament to the strength of Western democratic principles which were first established in Greece over 2000 years ago, this vote has also damaged the European project.

    The ballot question was confusing and related to an austerity deal that was no longer on the table. The Greeks are the great romantics of the European continent. Never giving up hope and trusting their beliefs and reasoning would help them win the day.

    This has been proven in history be it in battle against the Persian Empire where a small population endeavored to beat a superior foe. During the Second World War the Greeks where victorious in defeat against the superior numbers of German, Italian and Bulgarian armies. More recently the Greek Government proved the Western press, and in particular the BBC wrong by hosting a successful Olympic Games in 2004. In the same year the Greek national soccer team against the odds lifted the European Cup of Nations in Portugal.

    So the Greeks are a gritty people who when agitated or when they have their backs against the wall can move mountains and achieve the impossible. Just look at what Alexander of Macedon achieved at such a tender age as he lived his father’s dream and established a Greek mega empire.

    I may not agree with much of Alexis Tsipras believes in but he is charismatic and is ready for a fight. However Alexis is no Alexander and Varoufakis is no Hephaestion. The odds are just stack too high against this SYRIZA administration.

    These leads us to Monday. The Euro project is now under serious threat. For the German Chancellor Angela Merkel the Greek vote will come as sickening news. Only last week the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that there was no other deal on the table.

    Can Angela Merkel and the rest of the Eurozone now make an accommodation with this Greek Government? With so much bad blood between both sides and with all goodwill, credibility and trust for the Greek Government having evaporated it is hard to see how the talks can resume.

    Furthermore, is it possible for the Europeans to now offer generous terms to the Greek government in full knowledge that a cave in to the demand of Tsipras will only store up further trouble down the road.

    Across the Mediterranean Sea in Spain, the Podemos party is headed by the equally charismatic and radical leftist Pablo Iglesias Turrión. A victory for SYRIZA and a softening of the European position will act as a hammer blow to Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Brey and a rallying call to Podemos. Ultimately this could lead to Podemos taking power at the Spanish general election that will take place this winter. A Podemos Government in Spain will make the Greek issue look like a nonevent.

    Back to the referendum today’s vote has been framed by Tsipras as a victory for democracy. Furthermore with the power of the people backing his negotiating position the European partners can no longer defy the democratic choices of the people. The Greek Premier does have a point. The European Union should not just be an economic union but also a political and more importantly social union. There needs to be social justice and economic mobility for all of Europe’s citizens.

    Unfortunately the construction of the Euro was to a German design. As such the single currency benefited German business which is heavily reliant on exports. With the Euro depreciating over the past five years the German Government was able to drag its economy out of recession through the sale of cheaper goods to the rest of Europe.
    Back to the democratic process Alexis Tsipras has to recognize for all of the Euros shortcomings he cannot impose his will against the wishes of the citizens of the rest of Europe. The Governments of the other European countries have been elected under trust. Why should European the tax payers be made to fund a Greek economy that has been failing for decades.

    This leads me back to Monday. The resounding “OXI” does not solve the immediate crisis which is a lack of banking liquidity. With as little as Euro 1 billion left in Greek banks there has been an announcement that banking clients cannot withdraw money from safe deposit boxes.

    This is a major alarm bell for that reminds me of what happened in Cyprus back in 2013. There remains Euro 150 billion of client deposits in Greek Banks. However most of the larger account holders have already taken balances over the Euro 100,000 safety net out of the country. I would not surprise to see a bank bail in of accounts above EUR 10,000.

    So where does this leave Greece and more importantly the Euro project. To let Greece fall out of the Euro would signal the beginning of the end of the single currency. There has to be a compromise between both sides. A failure to support Greece now will cause a humanitarian crisis within the Unions borders. A European project that was created to bring hope and peace to Europe will see one of its members unable to feed its people and acquire the medication that an ageing population desperately needs.

    For all the efforts of the prior Greek Governments the debt was never viable. The IMF only last week stated that the Greek debt needed to be substantially restructured. From the very first day of this phase of the crisis some 5 months back, I put forward the idea of extending the terms of the Greek debt into perpetual bonds. There is an economic cost but no debt is actually written off.

    There are claims that Ireland and Portugal have been success stories of the European austerity project. Have they really? These two countries together with Italy have massive debt to GDP levels. A new deal for Greece could become part of a new deal for Europe that once and for all puts Europe’s addiction to debt into rehab.

    So who are the real winners and losers of Sundays vote. I can only think of one, my colleague Elena. We made a bet on the Greek referendum outcome. She bet that “No” vote would win. I hope she takes Drachmas?



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1111

    Target 2: 1.0857

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 1.1150



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5656

    Target 2: 1.5440

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5650








    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 122.73

    Target 2: 120.94

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.89

    Daily control level: 123.25







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9532

    Target 2: 0.9324

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 0.9500







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2694

    Target 2: 1.2492

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.2530






    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7721

    Target 2: 0.7543

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7640







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1186.19

    Target 2: 1162.89

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.65

    Daily control level: 1166.00







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 56.50

    Target 2: 53.28

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61

    Daily control level: 57.80






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  6. #416

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.07.2015



    Sunday’s surprising news that the Greek public had voted “No” in the Greek referendum was followed on Monday by the news that the combative Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had resigned his position.

    Did he go under his own free will or was he pushed? For certain the European Finance Ministers and especially the German Wolfgang Schäuble will be relieved to see him go. However Varoufakis was good value and it is a shame that his expressive language and cool demeanour will no longer be a feature of the European scene.

    Varoufakis has been replaced by the academic Euclid Tsakalotos as the Minister of Finance. Mr. Tsakalotos is much more softly spoken and measured in his comments when compared to his predecessor. However under that mild demeanour and English accent is another strong and intelligent mind. There is no doubt that after Varoufakis had done his job of softening up the Europeans, it is now the job of Tsakalotos to lower the tone but at the same time negotiate hard.

    Mr. Tsakalotos will need to use all his skills and experience to bring about a compromise solution to the Greek debt crisis. The Greek Prime Minister will be hoping too that Tsakalotos could reinstate the burnt bridges and bring back the trust that was lost with the announcement of the referendum.

    The Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras has a view that the Greek referendum victory has strengthen his negotiating hand. The Greek public and the bosses of the Greek banks are hoping that he can deliver on his promise to construct and agree on a compromise formula over the next few days.

    However it is still very uncertain if the Europeans will agree. As always the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem has been dismissive of the Greek side. The French side however has been more conciliatory in their position. What is of greater concern is an apparent hardening of the position of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    Europe is now becoming increasingly divided. One side being resigned or actually encouraging the Greek to take a decision and leave the Euro area. On the other hand, Governments that fear for the consequences of a Grexit are concerned about the consequence could be if Greece finally and after 5 wasted years falls out of the Eurozone.

    Although the Lehman’s debacle in balance sheet terms was roughly double the size of the current Greek debt, unraveling the after effects of a debt default and Grexit is still unclear. This is one of the key cards that the Greek Prime holds. It is his hope that the Europeans will therefore be forced to act so as to mitigate the unknown or likely consequences of Greece falling out of the Euro.

    Furthermore if Greece ends up having no choice but to exit the Euro, the cost to the Europeans will be very high. Not only do European tax payers lose some Euro 330 billion but there will also be the longer term costs of shoring up the Euro area.

    Once Greece exits the Euro area, the concept of the irrevocability of Eurozone membership ceases to exist. This will lead to added pressure on other periphery countries and puts at risk Portugal, Span and Italy.

    Europe and by this I mean the Germans will be forced to shore up the defenses so that contagion does not bring other countries down. The cost of further fiscal and banking union will dwarf the cost of keeping Greece in the Euro.

    One final factor that needs to be addressed is that of Geo-politics. Greece is at the frontier of Europe’s eastern border. The neighbourhood that Greece resides in is far from stable. An exit from the Euro will leave a key NATO country exposed and without allies in the region. The concern will be that a European rejection will send Greece into the arms of the Russian bear.

    There has been some good news over the past few days in that all Greek political parties have backed any agreement that will be reached in Brussels. This eases the issue of implementation.

    It is now time for Europe to grasp the key issue of solidarity. The Euro was a flawed creation and continues to be a single currency that is not fit for purpose. It is time that the Euro’s deficiencies are recognized and fixes implemented for the sake of all of Europe’s citizens.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1174

    Target 2: 1.0936

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

    Daily control level: 1.1125








    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5701

    Target 2: 1.5505

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.5650






    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.89

    Target 2: 121.72

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.83

    Daily control level: 123.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9523

    Target 2: 0.9325

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 0.9385








    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2748

    Target 2: 1.2550

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.2530







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7857

    Target 2: 0.7411

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7550







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1181.13

    Target 2: 1158.93

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.10

    Daily control level: 1162.70








    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 54.35

    Target 2: 51.13

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61

    Daily control level: 56.65





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  7. #417

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.07.2015




    With the deadline looming for the Greek debt proposal due no later than tomorrow morning and with crucial European summits due to take place over the weekend the level of uncertainty and anxiety continues to blanket Greece.

    This uncertainty has forced the Greek Government to extend the limit of EUR 60 a day ATM allowance until Monday. After Monday, the fate of the Greek people is in the hands of European and Greek politicians who have shown themselves incapable of making correct decisions.

    The move to extend the banking restrictions follows on from the decision by the European Central Bank to put on hold any further Emergency Liquidity Assistance until the debt crisis is resolved.

    With the Greek Prime Minister saying that he will present plans on Thursday to his European partners the end game of this phase of the Greek crisis is now very close.
    With the creditor’s position now hardening a failure of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to take into account the gravity of the situation will lead to dire consequences and immediate hardship for the Greek nation.

    One can only assume that a failure to broker a compromise solution after what has been 5 wasted and fruitless months of negotiations is that Alexis Tsipras never had an intention of striking a deal. The bottom line is the Greek Premier wanted from the outset is total European capitulation or a return to the Drachma.

    This may be a very harsh view. However the manner of the negotiation which can be summed up as a win or bust strategy was never going to work. There was just too much resistance within the European Union to what they saw a radical left Government that was intent to turn around the order of things.

    The Europeans made mistakes too. The original sin was of course the creation of a Frankenstein currency that destroyed the economies of the periphery European nations. The only nation to really benefit from the creation of the Euro was Germany which took the opportunity of the cheap single currency to export its way out of recession at the expense of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, aka the PIIGS.

    The debt deal that was constructed by the creditors was designed not to assist Greece but was engineered with the assistance of the IMF had only one aim in mind. That was to get the German and French banks off the hook.

    There was no attempt to help the Greek people and Greek business to grow themselves out of the mess that corrupt and inept politicians in partnership with the foreign banks had got the country into.

    There is a need of course to reform the public sector and pension system but Greece is a country that has no safety net. The austerity that was imposed on the country only damaged the Greek public. The German and French bankers and the leaders of the political elite of the PASOK and Nea Democratia party continue to live their life of privilege as they enjoyed their lavish villas and drive around in their high performance German automobiles.

    The election victory that SYRIZA achieved some 5 months back was inevitable as the Greek public had enough of the wasted opportunities of its political elite. When Tsipras took power, he proclaimed that reform was at the centre of his agenda. However evidence of this is nowhere to be seen.

    My real concern is not for Greek or European politicians but for the tax payers of Europe who have paid for the decisions and mistakes made in their name. Without doubt there is a need for change in Europe. I just hope that the politicians either side of this current divide recognize that they have an obligation to Europe’s citizens to get us out of this mess.
    I personal would like nothing more but never have to write about this subject again as it has become rather tedious.

    I therefore urge all sides to compromise enough to get us through to Monday. Once there, the real work of reforming Europe begins.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1203

    Target 2: 1.0949

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 1.0900






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5469

    Target 2: 1.5249

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5650







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.67

    Target 2: 119.71

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98

    Daily control level: 123.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9554

    Target 2: 0.9350

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 0.9385






    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2846

    Target 2: 1.2644

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.2675









    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7518

    Target 2: 0.7338

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7370






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1170.80

    Target 2: 1145.88

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.46

    Daily control level: 1175.30





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 53.59

    Target 2: 50.05

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.77

    Daily control level: 54.00






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  8. #418

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.07.2015


    Officials at the Greek Finance Ministry worked late into the night to put together a proposal that could be presented to its partners in the Eurozone and the IMF.
    Assistance in the preparation of the document was given by civil servants from the French Ministry of Finance. This assistance has highlighted the positive and very pro Greek stance the French Government has taken.

    The French and to a lesser extent the Italian Governments have been more conciliatory than their German partners towards the Greek Government. One is reminded from a “good cop, bad cop” scenario when one views the relationship France and Germany have to Greece. However Fräulein Merkel may disagree and say that all the German Government was doing was giving the Greek Government a taste of reality through a lot of tough love.

    With news being leaked of the contents of the referendum, one will be very surprised to hear that what the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras is now offering and what was signed off by the Greek Government very much resembles what the creditors had put on the table before.

    In fact, the Greek Proposal sets out much harsher conditions in many areas with an increase of austerity from EUR 8 to 13 billion. That the Greek Government has been the starting point of 5 months of market turmoil and that has seen its economy nose dive, leaving the Greek people in a state of perpetual hardship does lead me to ask a couple of pertinent questions.

    Why on earth did the Greek Government waste all that time in negotiating and why was a contentious referendum staged at a huge cost only for the democratic vote of the people to be ignored.

    Not one for conspiracy theories but my opinion is that all that has gone on before was a theatrical show for the citizens of the European Union. The show was staged to sensitize the voting and tax paying public of this Union to the idea that reform is needed.
    Conflict always creates chaos. However, conflict can also be a strong catalyst for change and reform. The Greek fiasco came at a time when the vulnerabilities of the Euro project became more and more apparent.

    The Greek debt crisis was that catalyst and at the same time the ultimate test of the Euro which highlighted these imbalances and negative economic effects. It can be hoped that work will now begin that plugs the gaps and fixes the problems which the single currency creates.

    Even if an agreement is signed off over the weekend, the Greek economy will be in for a rough couple of years. However with an appropriate amount of debt relief that brings the country’s obligations within manageable and viable levels we may just see the Greek economy in a few years’ time that is comprehensively reformed and one of the most modern with the European Union.

    As such this is a template for two much bigger projects. These are France and Italy. Both countries are in drastic need of reform. The benefit of the Greek issue has put European reform on the agenda. It is to be seen if the Europeans are courageous enough not to squander this opportunity.

    So how does all this leave Greece? Yesterday I wrote that I viewed the events of the past week as an orchestrated attempt by the Greek SYRIZA Government to trigger a Grexit. Proof of this would be the presentation of a plan which would have been rejected out of hand.

    That Alexis Tsipras from what early reports indicate has put forward an acceptable proposal shows that he is serious about getting a deal signed off. Is the Greek Prime Minister the biggest bluffer in the history of poker? Was his hand about to be called and did he fold in the knowledge that he could not win? It is not the simple.

    What Tsipras and recently resigned Finance Minister Yianis Varoufakis achieved was to get the debate about Greek debt and European debt sustainability finally on the table. Moreover, they have linked this to one important issue. How can a country reform itself without destroying an economy?

    Furthermore, Alexis Tsipras has also driven a wedge that has split the creditors into two groups. One being the IMF, France and in the background Italy which wants to see debt viability as a key economic necessity and the other hand we have the Germans who keep banging the drum for austerity.

    There have also been splits elsewhere, most notably in Greece. The divide in the Greek public was shown during the recent referendum campaign. However what is of greater concern is the rapture with the ruling SYRIZA party. The split will be apparent today when the Greek Parliament votes on the legislation that ties this country’s future to the Euro.

    Today’s story is not over just yet.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1160

    Target 2: 1.0900

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

    Daily control level: 1.0990








    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5488

    Target 2: 1.5268

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5350








    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 122.32

    Target 2: 120.33

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99

    Daily control level: 120.40






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9581

    Target 2: 0.9631

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 0.9500







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2802

    Target 2: 1.2606

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.2675









    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7535

    Target 2: 0.7357

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7370






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1171.16

    Target 2: 1147.88

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.64

    Daily control level: 1175.30








    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 54.32

    Target 2: 50.66

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83

    Daily control level: 54.00






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  9. #419

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.07.2015



    Talks between European leaders lasted some 15 hours as an attempt was made to solve the Gordian Knot that is the Greek Financial crisis.

    The Greek Prime Minister is making desperate attempts to stave off his countries bankruptcy, however, the group of countries led by Germany and Finland have adopted a very harsh bargaining position. The Greek Government is being told to either ditch its principles or leaves the Euro.

    Alexis Tsipras must be feeling a great deal of strain this morning and it is obvious that this kind of pressure would make the best of us buckle under the pressure.

    The referendum victory of the “No” campaign did give the Greek Government a positive momentum. However, the mood soon changed as the hard line that the Europeans took left the Greek Government split and the Greek public deflated.

    With the German Chancellor telling reporters that she simply does not trust this Greek Government to stick to any agreement, it is hard to see how Alexis Tsipras can keep his job. Especially as back home in Greece he called an unnecessary referendum on austerity but then promptly decided to ignore the people’s vote. As for the SYRIZA party, there is a high probability that the internal conflict that was generated by the ongoing discussions between Greece and the countries creditors could see this alliance of the radical left fracture and break up.

    From a backdrop of haemorrhaging support at home and outright opposition from abroad, the Greek Prime Minister now has to push through one of the most contentious pieces of legislation that has ever been passed by the Greek Parliament.

    What the Europeans are asking from the Greek Government is a total surrender. Only by agreeing to the European demands can Alexis Tsipras hope to receive some Euro 80 to 85 billion from the Europeans. Without this new third bailout, the Greek Government will be cut adrift and have no choice but to leave the Euro area.

    Unfortunately for a long time successive Greek Governments have shied away from taking the harsh decisions which were needed to reform the country’s economy. It is very ironic that the Europeans and the IMF will now call upon a Greek Prime Minister who belongs to the radical left of the political spectrum to be their instrument to inflict austerity and with it misery and pain onto the citizens of his country.

    The Europeans and namely the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shown no mercy to the Greece. Not only does the German and European Governments want legislation passed by Wednesday but they also require constant oversight that the Greeks are sticking to the word of the law.

    To drive home their message, the Europeans have also told the SYRIZA Government to reverse legislation that it passed on the outset of taking power. This includes once again closing down the state-run Greek national television station and the sacking of 4,000 public workers. The most notable symbol of these sackings would be state cleaners that had been made redundant by the previous administration.

    As I come the end of this it is now reported that a deal on Greece has been agreed. Is this a good deal for Greece and Europe. Only time will tell.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1288

    Target 2: 1.1032

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

    Daily control level: 1.1200






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5623

    Target 2: 1.5399

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

    Daily control level: 1.5350







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 123.77

    Target 2: 121.65

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

    Daily control level: 122.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9489

    Target 2: 0.9277

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 0.9320







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2761

    Target 2: 1.2555

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.2675







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7531

    Target 2: 0.7351

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7400






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1174.86

    Target 2: 1151.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.68

    Daily control level: 1168.00








    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 54.01

    Target 2: 50.31

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85

    Daily control level: 51.00






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  10. #420

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.07.2015




    The Greek Prime Minister must be in a lonely place this morning. After caving into the demands of the countries creditors, Alexis Tsipras now has to sell the plan to the Greek Parliament.

    The package of additional aid will only add to the Greek debt pile. This additional debt does have a very high price as the Greek Government has to implement a reform and austerity package that will hit the ordinary working Greek citizen very hard.

    The reforms to be fair are needed and overdue. For some five years, successive Greek Governments had failed to pass legislation. This legislation was linked to the two prior agreed bailouts.

    The failure to have these reforms implemented has wasted 5 precious years. This was due to nothing more than the cowardice of the previous Greek administrations who did not have the fortitude to finish the job.

    Now, it is left to Alexis Tsipras, the once poster boy of the radical left of Greek politics to push through Parliament 5 years of reforms in two days of business.

    I am all for reform, Greece is in need of a radical upgrade. However, the manner by which these reforms were imposed on a country does leave a bitter taste in one’s mouth.

    The German Government flanked by the Dutch, Fins, Slovaks and Lithuanians took a very harsh and somewhat aggressive stance.

    Any idea of European solidarity was ignored as the North European Nations put the pressure on the Greek leadership. With the likes of the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico saying that he would show Greece “No mercy” one has to question if this European project is one that is worth fighting for.

    It would appear the United Kingdom made the correct choice by electing to choose sovereignty over the financial straight jacket that the European single currency imposes.

    Greece made a mistake by choosing to join what is currently a failed Euro project. The Greek political leadership early in the last decade decided to fudge their way into the single currency.

    Although there were instant rewards of rapid growth, the catalyst of the new found prosperity was built on debt. When the debt became unsustainable the Greek economy collapsed with tragic consequences.

    This leads us to the events of the coming week. Alexis Tsipras now has to force through the Greek Parliament legislation that a few days ago he would have never contemplated.

    That the Greek Prime Minister has totally ignored the will of the Greek people who voted in a referendum against further austerity is unjust and a travesty of democracy.

    Through its actions, the Greek Government crippled the banking system. With the banks no longer functioning the economy is left in limbo. The cost an economy closing down for the best part of 3 weeks is astronomical.

    To take the risk and challenge the countries creditors but them to meekly capitulate once the pressure came puts a big question mark over the current Greek Prime Minister.

    Is Alexis Tsipras the safe pair of hands Greece needs? Or is he at best inexperienced or at worst a gambler?

    Once the Parliament has the final say on the bill and the bailout is approved by all the national governments of the Eurozone, the question is who in Greece should ensure that the agreed plan is implemented.

    Do the creditors and the Greek public give Alexis Tsipras a second chance or does Greece need new leadership?

    I think the idea of an experienced hand taking charge and becoming the Greek Prime Minister would be a mistake. Greece needs to look forward and not backward.

    The Greek Government will also be constrained by what it can and cannot do as it has to function under very strict oversight.

    Therefore, the idea of causing fresh political upheaval by calling for elections would be a mistake.

    It would be far better that Alexis Tsipras seeks out members of the opposition who he could work with and form a national unity Government.

    Is there any realistic alternative?



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1133

    Target 2: 1.0867

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

    Daily control level: 1.1200






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5593

    Target 2: 1.5377

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5350









    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.50

    Target 2: 122.38

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

    Daily control level: 122.00







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9637

    Target 2: 0.9425

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 0.9320









    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2765

    Target 2: 1.2551

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.2675







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7495

    Target 2: 0.7315

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7400






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1169.03

    Target 2: 1145.97

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.53

    Daily control level: 1168.00







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 53.82

    Target 2: 50.16

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83

    Daily control level: 51.00






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