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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #421

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.07.2015



    Greek members of Parliament talked late into the night in what turned out at times to be a strongly contested debate over the country’s much-maligned debt deal.

    Although the vote to pass the legislation was never in doubt the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had concerns that the fallout of his humiliating climb down would fracture and fragment the ruling SYRIZA party.

    As expected the rupture within SYRIZA was large with many SYRIZA MP’s from the far left platform of the Party voting against the Governments legislation.

    The most outspoken of the critics are Zoi Konstantopoulou who is the Speaker of the Greek Parliament and the former Finance Minister, Yianis Varoufakis. They were joined by other leading SYRIZA members who showed their contempt for the legislation by voting against it.

    With SYRIZA now seemingly split between the moderates and radical left factions, Alexis Tsipras will now have to battle to hold is political party together. What remains of SYRIZA must be fearful of the political future of their party.

    Tsipras was always the dominating force of the party. Therefore, if the Greek Prime Minister decides that he cannot go on in office and implement legislation that he clearly dislikes there is a strong possibility that the raptures in SYRIZA will force upon it a terminal decline.

    The agreement that was reached in Brussels has been given a frosty reception both in Greece and by the International Monetary Fund. It is now becoming the acceptable view that some sort of debt adjustment must be made that will give the Greek economy space and time to breath and grow. However, the German Government and their friends within the European Union have so far blocked such a move.

    This stance now means that Alexis Tsipras must take ownership of the legislation and implement it in its entirety in the face of stiff internal opposition. For Alexis Tsipras to be successful in his goal he will need to build bridges within the Greek Parliament with his foes in the New Democracy and PASOK political parties.

    With a national unity Government in place the implementation of the much-needed reforms will be smoother as the administration will be able to marginalize the more extreme elements of the politics that can be found to the left and right of the political spectrum.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1083

    Target 2: 1.0807

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138

    Daily control level: 1.1050










    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5752

    Target 2: 1.5516

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 1.5575







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.81

    Target 2: 122.71

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.05

    Daily control level: 123.00









    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9625

    Target 2: 0.9407

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 0.9400








    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3040

    Target 2: 1.2844

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.2675







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7471

    Target 2: 0.7283

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 0.7490






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1159.09

    Target 2: 1135.57

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.76

    Daily control level: 1160.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 55.29

    Target 2: 51.49

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90

    Daily control level: 51.00







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  2. #422

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.07.2015



    Today the German Bundestag will vote to approve the latest Greek bailout deal. The probability that the endorsement of 86 billion euro package will go through. However it is becoming harder to persuade German taxpayers that Greece is the country which is worth helping.

    There is a growing opposition even in the Angela Merkel’s own party, which she will need to persuade for the bailout approval. With the European project under threat, Greece exiting the Union could cause a further domino effect.

    After the Greek Parliament approved the new bailout terms on Thursday. Finland’s parliament followed the suit yesterday. Several other countries are expected to raise their voice on the subject within the next few days.

    Greece is in urge to receive financial aid as due date for the 4.2 billion euro repayment to the European Central Bank is coming on Monday. In addition, the installment in arrears to IMF amounting to about 2 billion euro have to be repaid as soon as possible.

    In the meantime, the European Central Bank has decided to raise interim emergency lending to the Greek Banks in order to keep them afloat. The doubts however remain whether the cash-strapped country will be able to fulfill its obligations under the new agreement.

    International Monetary fund has also expressed its doubts regarding the subject, saying that unless significant haircuts on the Greek debt will occur, it will be impossible for the country to recover.

    The Greek Finance Minister himself has constantly noted that he does not believe in the new bailout deal and signed it because there were no other options. He has consequently lost support within his SYRIZA party as well as of many Greek citizens, who felt betrayed by the minister not fulfilling his election promises and accepting further austerity measures, which some believe will suffocate the fragile Greek economy.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0995

    Target 2: 1.0753

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0121

    Daily control level: 1.1050







    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5722

    Target 2: 1.5488

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.5575








    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 125.10

    Target 2: 123.18

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9641

    Daily control level: 123.00








    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9676

    Target 2: 0.9476

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 0.9400







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.2956

    Target 2: 1.0105

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.2675






    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7492

    Target 2: 0.7314

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7490





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1156.55

    Target 2: 1134.32

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.115

    Daily control level: 1160.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 58.97

    Target 2: 55.11

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.9314

    Daily control level: 51.00







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  3. #423

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.07.2015



    Gold has tumbled over 4% in the early hours of this week opening. The precious metal was trading below 1100.00 price for the first time during the past 5 years, reaching the low of 1086.00 per ounce.

    The price slump was caused by the speculative selling in the Shanghai Stock exchange, therefore was not triggered by a simple price discovery. It is believed that a major hedge fund selling its holdings in the early Asian session.

    “It was down to speculation here, someone taking advantage of the low liquidity environment,” Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist at ANZ, told CNBC. “Around 5 tonnes of gold was sold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange within the space of two minutes between 09:29 and 09:30. The daily volume last week was about 25 tonnes,” he observed. “It clearly wasn’t driven by fundamentals, because the U.S. dollar didn’t move at that time”.

    Chinese Central Bank, one of the biggest gold buyers globally, has reported on Friday that its gold reserves were more than half of expected level. The Financial Times reported, the Central Bank’s Gold reserves were 1,658 tonnes (53.31 million fine troy ounces) as of the end of June, comparing to 1,054 tonnes reserves in April 2009.

    Positive US economic data and the Federal Reserve continues affirmation that the US interest rate will be increased by the end of this year had added to the Gold price weakness, significantly influencing the reduction of the demand for the precious metal.

    Analysts expect the price to continue to decline in the near future.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0949

    Target 2: 1.0713

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 1.1050








    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5717

    Target 2: 1.5481

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 1.5575







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.94

    Target 2: 123.10

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9239

    Daily control level: 123.00






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9704

    Target 2: 0.9512

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 0.9400







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3072

    Target 2: 1.2870

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.2675







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7473

    Target 2: 0.7289

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

    Daily control level: 0.7490







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1147.80

    Target 2: 1118.74

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.53

    Daily control level: 1160.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 59.00

    Target 2: 55.28

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586

    Daily control level: 51.00







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  4. #424

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.07.2015



    Yesterday Greece’s sovereign credit rating was lifted by two notches as the agreement with creditors was reached and overdue debt to International Monetary Fund was settled. Standard & Poor’s rating agency has raised the Greece’s rating from CCC- to CCC+. The agency also revised country’s outlook from negative to stable.

    The rating however still leaves the country in the junk status with the only optimism that it goes in the right direction.

    The emergency bridging loan of 7 billion euro Greece has received last week with subsequent settling of its debt obligations was one of the reasons for the rating increase. In addition, a promise of the new three-year bailout deal has convinced the S&P that “its default on its stock of commercial debt is no longer inevitable” within the next 12 months.

    According to the agency the possibility of the Greece exiting Eurozone has now fallen to below 50%, with the risks high still.

    On Monday the Greek banks have begun operations after being closed for three weeks. The same day the country met 4.2 billion Euro deadline to the European Central Bank as well as settled 2 billion euro to International Monetary Fund. The payment of 700 million euro interest was also settled with its creditors.

    In the return for the bailout aid, Greece has agreed to implement further austerity measures among which are tax increases and spending reduction. In addition, a massive sale of the state assets to the private investors should be put into effect.

    The new 86 billion euro agreement is still awaiting the approval by some of the European Members parliaments. It is expected that negotiations for the new program will be concluded within a month.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0937

    Target 2: 1.0711

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.1050





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5671

    Target 2: 1.5445

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.5575







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 125.04

    Target 2: 123.26

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8939

    Daily control level: 123.00








    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9734

    Target 2: 0.9556

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.9400







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3069

    Target 2: 1.2875

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.2675







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7457

    Target 2: 0.7281

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7490







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1113.36

    Target 2: 1083.74

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.81

    Daily control level: 1160.00







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 58.40

    Target 2: 54.76

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586

    Daily control level: 51.00







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  5. #425

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.07.2015



    This morning at 9:30 am London time, the U.K. Office for National Statistics will release the monthly Retail Sales figures.

    This month the data is expected to rise further to 0.4%, comparing to 0.2% of the previous release. The retail sales advance is supported by the growth of the nation’s discretionary spending ability and also encouraged by the decline in the inflation levels. In addition, the earnings growth is picking up the pace which positively influences the consumer sentiment. It is currently at the highest levels since the economic crisis of 2009.

    Should the release confirm or exceed the expectations that would likely give a further boost to the boost to the strengthening British Pound.

    The current luck of stability in currencies and unpredictability of the stock market, could cause the investments to consider switching to the British Pound shortly, as it provides relative stability.

    The Retail Sales indicator tracks a change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. In order to have representative figures, the survey takes different business entities as a sample.

    This data is released approximately twenty days after a month ends and plays a substantial role as an indicator of the economic activity within the United Kingdom. The consumer spending constitutes for the majority of a country’s economic activity, the announcement will likely to cause high market volatility of the GBP pairs.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1047

    Target 2: 1.0807

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 1.1050



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5724

    Target 2: 1.5496

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114

    Daily control level: 1.5575







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 123.83

    Target 2: 123.05

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8887

    Daily control level: 123.00








    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9687

    Target 2: 0.9505

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.9400






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3125

    Target 2: 1.2925

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 1.2675







    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7461

    Target 2: 0.7289

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.7490








    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1109.65

    Target 2: 1079.27

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.186

    Daily control level: 1160.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 57.88

    Target 2: 54.44

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.7200

    Daily control level: 51.00





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  6. #426

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.07.2015



    A preliminary estimate of China’s manufacturing activity has declined to 15-month low, which shows the world second biggest economy is undergoing a slowdown.

    The Chinese Purchasing Managers index has slid to 48.2, comparing to the final reading of 49.4 in June. The PMI uses 100-point scale, with the numbers below 50 indicating the industry contraction. For China have been a case since December 2014, with only minor exception in February 2015, when the index has reached 50.1.

    The rest of the China’s indexes, such as new orders, output and employment have all continued to shrink.

    Concerns over the slowed economic growth in China have prompted policymakers to action. Despite of the several attempts by the People’s Bank of China of the interest rates cuts, with the latest at the end of last month, the situation has not improved much still.

    “We think that recent policy easing has yet to fully feed through into stronger economic activity and expect policymakers to respond to signs of weakness by stepping up support in order to prevent growth from slipping much further this year,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said.

    Australia, as a result, has seen an immediate decline of its currency, with the Aussie hitting 0.7266 low against the US Dollar this morning, the lowest since 2009. China is Australia largest export market for the commodities.

    The general demand for the commodities especially such as oil, metals continues to decline sharply.

    Bloomberg commodity index was trading at all times low, reaching 94.07 mark yesterday, comparing to just below 140.00 one year ago.

    Gold price plunged lower once again, breaching the multi-year resistance line of 1080.00. Brent Oil at the same time has broken 55.50 resistance level.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1102

    Target 2: 1.0866

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 1.1215



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5632

    Target 2: 1.5392

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 1.5670






    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.76

    Target 2: 123.07

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8415

    Daily control level: 123.00






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9678

    Target 2: 0.9494

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

    Daily control level: 0.9400




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3135

    Target 2: 1.2935

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.2675




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7442

    Target 2: 0.7262

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7490




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1106.42

    Target 2: 1074.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.210

    Daily control level: 1160.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 57.08

    Target 2: 53.98

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5543

    Daily control level: 51.00



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  7. #427

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.07.2015



    This Tuesday Greek government will begin the negotiations on the new 86 billion euro bailout agreement, which was previously approved with the two parliamentary votes with the latest last week.

    Even though the short term agreement between Greece and its international creditors was settled ten days ago, Greek stock exchange remains closed for the 5th week.

    The official Troika representative groups have arrived in Athens to conclude the bailout talks. The heads of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are expected to arrive a few days later.

    The most belligerent issue for now is whether the Greece will need to carry out additional reform measures to receive the funds under the new bailout programme. The Athens are resisting strongly to that.

    The negotiations deadline is set to be August 20, when Greece will need to pay another 3.2 billion euro on ECB held bonds.

    Last week the banks were reopened, however would only provide limited service with the capital controls still there. Greek account holders are limited in their cash withdrawal to 420 Euro per week, which according to officials could last “for month”. Greek government request to lift the limits on trading were rejected by the European Central Bank last Friday.

    The measures were implemented to avoid a likely bank runs, which could cause illiquidity and consequent economic collapse to the very fragile economy of the Balkan member. The large deposit outflow was seen in the country’s banks just before capital controls were introduced. It is expected that the only completion of the new bailout aid agreement will restore the confidence in the Greek banking system.

    Large number of the businesses as a result have suffered significant sales declines, as they were unable to pay their suppliers. In addition, the recently increased VAT and reduction in pensions payments will lessen the population’s spending power even further.

    Troika is seen negatively by the general Greek population, as it is believed its harsh austerity measures caused the economy to decline sharply and unemployment to soar to the record-high levels.

    In the recently published report by the IMF, it warned that “Although market reaction to the recent reform package passed in Greece has been broadly positive, further episodes of significant uncertainty and volatility arising from the situation cannot be ruled out.”


    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1098

    Target 2: 1.0864

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.1215



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5622

    Target 2: 1.5402

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5670




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.56

    Target 2: 122.88

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8375

    Daily control level: 123.00



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9705

    Target 2: 0.9519

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.9400



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3135

    Target 2: 1.2939

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.2675



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7353

    Target 2: 0.7183

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7490



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1115.23

    Target 2: 1083.08

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520

    Daily control level: 1160.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 56.28

    Target 2: 53.38

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520

    Daily control level: 51.00



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  8. #428

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.07.2015



    The Chinese market continues to plummet, with the collapse is now compared to the US stock market crash in 1929.

    In the yesterday’s selloff the benchmark for the mainland stocks index sunk to 3.725,56 which is 8.5%, with many equities down to more than 10%. It is estimated that the total decline since June amounts to 38%.

    The plunge came quite unexpected as the government rescue programme had helped the index 16% up since July 16.

    The Government of the China has made numerous efforts to support the markets, which up to now however brought little result. Among the measures were the ban of the major shareholders from selling their stock and IPOs suspension. Additional interventions to sustain the market were also convened however, were not very effective on the background of the generally slowing down the Chinese economy.

    Yesterday China Security Regulatory Commission issued the statement, where it was remarked that the support for the equities will be prolonged and the government will “continue efforts to stabilize market and investor sentiment.”

    Despite the continuous efforts by the Government to stabilize the markets investors “are concerned and lost,” as Bloomberg reports.

    The Chinese market transparency has always been a concern it continues. “In a market where unprecedented intervention has made government money one of the biggest drivers of share prices, authorities aren’t transparent enough for investors to make informed decisions.”

    Numerous markets and currencies were affected by the economic decline of the second world largest economy. China is the Australia’s largest exporting market, with now significantly reduced demand for the country’s raw materials caused the Australian Dollar to decline to six years low, reaching 0.7256 mark yesterday.

    Canadian Dollar was in no better condition, continuing to lose its value dramatically with the price of USDCAD surpassing 1.3100 level on Friday.

    Russian Rouble was not put aside by the market trend when USDRUB reached the four-month high to almost 60.00 mark yesterday.

    The situation is putting downward pressure on the commodities, causing the Oil and Gold prices weaken further.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1203

    Target 2: 1.0973

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

    Daily control level: 1.1215



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5664

    Target 2: 1.5452

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.5670



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.98

    Target 2: 122.49

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.740

    Daily control level: 123.00




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9703

    Target 2: 0.9525

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 0.9400




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3135

    Target 2: 1.2939

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.2675




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7355

    Target 2: 0.7183

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7490



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1110.49

    Target 2: 1079.03

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.73

    Daily control level: 1160.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 48.55

    Target 2: 45.45

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

    Daily control level: 51.00



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  9. #429

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.07.2015



    This evening the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy statement.
    This announcement comes against the backdrop off falling oil, commodity prices and the collapse in the price of Chinese equities.

    The widening of the Greek financial crisis for now has it seems been averted but there are still concerns that the rebels within the ruling SYRIZA party may cause enough ripples which could slow down the implementation of the third Greek austerity program.

    The FOMC has had on its agenda for a long time the view that there needs to be a normalization of the interest rate environment. Therefore unless the current external financial instability becomes globally disruptive the FOMC will most likely stick to its present course of hiking rates gradually.

    The question is when the FOMC will raise rates? Will it be September or December? A couple of weeks back the likelihood was that the Fed would pass on the opportunity to raise interest rates in September and look to launch its interest rate nominalization program in December. In recent weeks however we have seen an improvement in US economic data and a stabilization in the job numbers.

    Therefore, it now looks like we see lift off in September. We may get some indication today from the Federal Reserve that this is their plan however with a lack of market news and the holiday season well and truly underway I would expect quiet days trading before we finally see a pick of activity this evening.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1171

    Target 2: 1.0947

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

    Daily control level: 1.1020



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5721

    Target 2: 1.5505

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5520



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.26

    Target 2: 122.84

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71

    Daily control level: 123.80





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9710

    Target 2: 0.9532

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.9600




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3022

    Target 2: 1.2820

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.3050




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7414

    Target 2: 0.7249

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.7250





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1110.12

    Target 2: 1079.52

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.30

    Daily control level: 1105.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 49.33

    Target 2: 46.25

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

    Daily control level: 49.00



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  10. #430

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.07.2015



    The United States Federal Reserve has voted in favour of keeping interest rates at the current levels of close to zero.

    Although there was universal agreement among all the FOMC members, the improving state of the US economy was highlighted in the latest statement.

    The FOMC said, “Economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months.” This would seem to indicate that the improving economic climate would point to an interest rate rise sooner rather than later. Therefore, the bets are now on the Federal Reserve nominalizing the interest rate environment in September rather than December.

    The FOMC in its statement noted the improvement on the Job and Real Estate market. Furthermore, there was also the satisfaction that consumer spending has finally begun to increase.

    The inflation picture is still not at the target level, however, the Federal Reserve stated that a sustained move to the 2% objective will happen.

    The FOMC through its action of deliberate forward guidance has now prepared the market for a period of higher interest rates. The US Dollar off the back of last night’s statement has appreciated during the early morning trading.

    The British Pound, however, has traded in a tight range and has remained above the previous day’s lows. This is due to the expectation that the Bank of England soon will also begin to increase interest rates.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1090

    Target 2: 1.0876

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.1125



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5698

    Target 2: 1.5496

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.5585




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.57

    Target 2: 123.29

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.64

    Daily control level: 123.30



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9752

    Target 2: 0.9586

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 0.9600



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3045

    Target 2: 1.2841

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.2860




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7375

    Target 2: 0.7213

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.7350




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1113.14

    Target 2: 1080.38

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.38

    Daily control level: 1105.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 50.41

    Target 2: 47.31

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

    Daily control level: 47.40




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