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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #431

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.07.2015



    The unprecedented market decline continues in China. The government interference of 27 July only had a brief success with the Shanghai Composite Index now declining to pre-intervention levels. At the moment China Securities Finance Corporation, which belongs to the state, is spending around 180 billion yuan a day to support the equities.

    However, as the investors started to figure out the timing of the government purchases, waiting that moment to unload their stocks. This is rendered this measure ineffective.

    The relatively quiet mornings in the Shanghai Stock exchange are usually followed by very volatile markets in the afternoon, which made analysts question the reasons of such a perplexing behaviour. Currently, a few factors were identified.

    The margin call from lenders is and market hitting stop losses often prompt the wave of new selling. In addition, the investors are usually opening position later in the day, after having the opportunity to observe the market behaviour in the morning and figuring out that the government purchasing is going on around that time.

    One more factor adds to the share market decline. The Shanghai Stock exchange is dominated by the individual investors, who mostly use technical analysis rather than fundamental factors when making their investment.

    The companies’ value, in this case, is diverted from the chart’s actions, rather than based on the calculations of the fair value of the company.

    This in turn could lead to illogical and “go with the flow” actions, leading to further sell-off. This also complicates the classical valuation techniques making the market more unpredictable and difficult to control.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1030

    Target 2: 1.0832

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.1125






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5710

    Target 2: 1.5490

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5585




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.72

    Target 2: 123.54

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.595

    Daily control level: 123.30




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9769

    Target 2: 0.9613

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 0.9600




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3045

    Target 2: 1.2841

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.2860



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7375

    Target 2: 0.7213

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.7350



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1104.24

    Target 2: 1072.32

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.96

    Daily control level: 1105.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 55.24

    Target 2: 52.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.418

    Daily control level: 47.40



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  2. #432

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.08.2015



    Today Greece is reopening its stock markets, which were closed since the end of the June. This will be one more step towards normalizing the struggling country’s economy.

    Immediate heavy losses are expected, with some analysts projecting the draw-down to reach as much as 20 percent.

    The resumption of trading begins as the deal for the bailout extension was made between Greek government and its international creditors, comprised of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.

    The bridge loan of 7 billion euro was arranged for the cash-strapped country in order to repay the delayed instalment to the IMF as well as the Greek bonds held by the ECB.

    The deal will promote the further measures to ensure the country’s debt is sustainable. These will be stringent reforms in the pensions system and taxes, as well as other budget’s austerity measures.

    The operation of the Greek stock exchange was suspended since June 29, together with the imposition on the capital controls, to prevent the heavy outflow of the funds from the country, threatening the Greece banking system’s collapse.

    The stocks are expected to be down between 19 and 22 percent, which is partly estimated based on the Greek assets traded in the United States.

    In addition, the traders concern about the negotiations on the new bailout could add a further pressure on the stocks of the struggling EU member. The fears that the negotiations might fail and the Greece economy will be once more left with the shortage of cash does not add any optimism to the short-term outlook for the trading of the Greek shares.

    We should keep in mind that banking sector comprises about 20% of the Athens stock exchange, making therefore making the index highly vulnerable to any negative events regarding the future bailout agreement.

    Furthermore, the recent bank closure and restrictions on the cash withdrawals and money transfers, have been a weighty toll on the operations of the Greek companies, many of which saw the sales decline to more than a quarter.

    The overall economic prospects of Greece are neither on the bright side. It is projected that the country’s economy will decline between 2 to 4 percent this year, which could cause the country to slide deeper into recession.




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1075

    Target 2: 1.0867

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.1125






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5728

    Target 2: 1.5536

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.5670






    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.47

    Target 2: 123.29

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5913

    Daily control level: 124.45




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9747

    Target 2: 0.9561

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: UpA

    Target 1: 1.3193

    Target 2: 1.2983

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 1.2910





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7403

    Target 2: 0.7233

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7260



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1112.68

    Target 2: 1078.68

    Projected range in ATR’s: 17.00

    Daily control level: 1105.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 53.56

    Target 2: 50.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.383

    Daily control level: 55.50



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  3. #433

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.08.2015



    Standard & Poor’s rating agency revised the European Union’s outlook from “Stable” to “Negative”. The outlook downgrade affects all the current 28 European members, 9 of which do not participate in the Eurozone, therefore using their own currency.

    The reason for the downgrade, among other issues is that “the EU will provide first-loss guarantee support for financing connected to the Juncker Plan”, as the agency cited.

    The Investment plan, announced last November by the European commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was created to encourage investments in Europe. It was approved by the European Parliament in June. The Juncker stimulus plan is expected to roll out 315 billion euros over three years.

    The challenge with the plan is its assumption for the EU to “provide first-loss guarantee support”, therefore will provide financed backup.

    The second reason is that the plan brings a significant economic pressure on the three largest EU budgetary contributors – Germany, United Kingdom and France.

    Furthermore, “the EU’s repeated use of its balance sheet to provide higher-risk financing to EU member states (most recently including Greece), without the member states’ paying in capital,” was brought up in the press release.

    “The negative outlook on the EU also reflects its lack of any paid-in capital, a key difference compared with other multilateral institutions. The EU continues to run a very large negative net asset position, largely reflecting its considerable pension obligations” – the statement continues.

    The recently financed part of the Greek bailout, in addition to previous funding of the weaker members such as Spain, Portugal and Cyprus have taken a toll on the EU budget. However, there is not much capital coming in from the 28 member states union.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1050

    Target 2: 1.0848

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.1125








    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5679

    Target 2: 1.5489

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.5670


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.59

    Target 2: 123.45

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5719

    Daily control level: 124.45






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9762

    Target 2: 0.9614

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3249

    Target 2: 1.3059

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.2910






    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.7367

    Target 2: 0.7199

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.7260



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1101.01

    Target 2: 1066.57

    Projected range in ATR’s: 17.22

    Daily control level: 1105.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 51.58

    Target 2: 48.76

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.414

    Daily control level: 55.50





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  4. #434

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.08.2015



    The probability that the Greece’s economy will be harmed further by the new austerity measures imposed by the creditors is real. The analysts believe that unless the debt afflicted country will receive a substantial loan relief, it will suffer permanent depression along with further deterioration of its economic health.

    For example it is projected that only the increase in VAT, which was one of the measures to be accepted by the Greek government in order to receive the bailout funds, will cause the GDP decrease of more than one percent next year. This will be due to even weaker consumer spending and continuous shrinking of the economy.

    In 2016, the country’s Gross domestic product is calculated to be 30% lower, than at the beginning of the crisis in 2010 and 7% so comparing to the time when Greece has joined the Eurozone in 2001.

    Currently, the Greek stock market continues to decline. On Monday, when the stock exchanges opened after being closed since the end of June many stocks suffered trading suspension due to the limit down of 30% decline. The heaviest losers were the banking sector stocks, the decline of which continued on Tuesday with the results much the same.

    The Greek Banks are the industry, which was particularly hard hit due to the heavy economic decline. More than 50 percent of the country’s loans are non-performing. The deposit flight was continuing at an unprecedented level during the past six months, and only ceased as the capital controls were enforced in June. This has caused huge liquidity problems and an urgent need for the recapitalisation.

    The above was one of the factors, which pushed the Greek government to accept the new bailout agreement measures in order to receive 86 billion euro aid, 25 billion of which is allocated to go to the country’s banking sector.

    At the moment, the negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the European Central Bank are underway and expected to be concluded in the next two weeks.

    As the new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos reported yesterday, the talks on the privatisation of the state assets, the main creditors’ demand is going smoothly, with the possibility of the final agreement to be reached even earlier.




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0981

    Target 2: 1.0779

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.1125




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5657

    Target 2: 1.5465

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.5670


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.94

    Target 2: 123.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5748

    Daily control level: 124.45



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9858

    Target 2: 0.9704

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

    Daily control level: 0.9710




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3285

    Target 2: 1.3095

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.2910





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.7367

    Target 2: 0.7199

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.7260




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1104.80

    Target 2: 1070.42

    Projected range in ATR’s: 17.19

    Daily control level: 1105.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 52.02

    Target 2: 49.21

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.405

    Daily control level: 55.50



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  5. #435

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.08.2015



    Today is the big and long expected day for the British pound, called by many media the “Super Thursday” At noon London time the Bank of England will release its August interest rate decision together with the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting and new economic forecast.

    This will be a new communication format, as all the elements are released at the same time. At 12:45 pm London time Mark Carney, BOE governor will hold a press conference.

    Even though the interest rate is not expected to be increased this time, remaining at 0.5% which is in place since 2009, the policy tone is to be shifted. This will significantly intensify the high impact event.

    The Governor Mark Carney has mentioned earlier that the rotation of the year will be the right time to start raising rates. Hence, the most likely we will see the rise in February 2016, which will be marked as a turning point.

    It is important to follow the major points of the today’s event. Firstly the MPC voting is projected to change this time from the unanimous decision to hold the interest rates, voted for the last 7 months. This time the economists seeing at least two out of nine members to vote in favour of the increase.

    Secondly, inflation forecasts will play a role of the future key guide. Changes regarding the medium-term outlook relative to the 2% target will be the main signal to reveal whether tighter or looser monetary policy will be required.

    Wage growth rate will be an important component of today’s meeting. According to the latest statistics, the pay is rising at the fastest annual velocity during the last five years. That could be an alarm bell about the inflationary pressure in the labour market. On the other hand, some analytics count that’s the pace is not enough for the interest rate hike.

    The language of the MPC Minutes will require a close observation also. For example the July’s minutes had a new line, which was reading as follows: “For a number of members, the balance of risks to medium-term inflation relative to the 2 per cent target was becoming more skewed to the upside at the current level of bank rate.”

    One of the factors that could deter the enthusiasm about the rate increase could be the situation in Greece, which is still unresolved.

    GBPUSD remains to range within 1.5670 – 1.5530 corridor in the expectation of the event. High volatility on all British Pound pairs should be anticipated this afternoon.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1008

    Target 2: 1.0802

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.1125






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5695

    Target 2: 1.5507

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 1.5670




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 125.47

    Target 2: 124.23

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6240

    Daily control level: 124.45





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9868

    Target 2: 0.9708

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3274

    Target 2: 1.3078

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.7441

    Target 2: 0.7269

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.7260



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1101.47

    Target 2: 1067.81

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.830

    Daily control level: 1105.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 51.58

    Target 2: 48.66

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4630

    Daily control level: 55.50



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  6. #436

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.08.2015




    Bank of England has displayed yesterday no urgency to raise interest rates, making it clear that the earliest increase could be expected not earlier than in 2016.

    The Monetary Policy Committee voted 1-0-8 in favour of holding the interest rate at the current level of 0.5%. This move surprised the investors as it was lower than the projections, according to which at least two members were expected to vote in favour of the hike.

    The Britain’s economic recovery continues with the wages increasing faster in the recent months and the overall job market improving. Nevertheless, the inflation level is still significantly lower than the target 2% and is at the moment one of the major obstacles to proceed with the tightening measures.

    “We are clearly closer to the time at which rates may have to go up, but that does not mean we’re fixing some particular point in the future”, Ben Broadbent, Bank of England Deputy Governor said in his interview yesterday.

    “As I saw it, I didn’t think there was any urgency to raise interest rates right now,” he continued.

    Yesterday, the Bank of England broke with the tradition and combined the set of the MPC’s rates decision, the minutes of the meeting, and its quarterly inflation report, alongside Bank governor Mark Carney’s regular press conference together.

    The inflation report has downgraded the near-term inflation forecast after the drop in the prices of oil has resumed. The Bank now expects inflation to remain around zero for the next two months, with the rise to the targeted 2% expected gradually to be reached in two- year time.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1024

    Target 2: 1.0820

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.1125




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5612

    Target 2: 1.5412

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

    Daily control level: 1.5670




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 125.36

    Target 2: 124.10

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.627

    Daily control level: 124.45





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9885

    Target 2: 0.9727

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

    Daily control level: 0.9710





    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3107

    Target 2: 1.3008

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.7426

    Target 2: 0.7258

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.7260





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1101.47

    Target 2: 1067.81

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.530

    Daily control level: 1105.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 51.56

    Target 2: 48.66

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.449

    Daily control level: 55.50



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  7. #437

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.08.2015




    It is hoped that the final deal between Greece and its international creditors will be concluded by tomorrow, as the negotiations on the final bailout programme are currently underway.

    Greek finance and economy ministers are being in the final steps of negotiations with the creditors’ delegates currently. It was previously said that the final agreement is expected to be reached by August 18, with the final date now moved closer.

    “Efforts are being made to conclude the negotiations. The horizon is by Monday night or early Tuesday,” – a Greek official in the interview to Reuters news agency was quoted.

    “When the new bailout comes to parliament for a vote it will be one bill with two articles – one article will be the loan agreement, the Memorandum of understanding and the second article will be the prior actions,” he continued.

    At the moment, for institutions are negotiating the 86 billion euro deal with Greece – The International Monetary Fund, the European Central bank, European Commission and the European Stability Mechanism and there is a confidence that the agreement will be reached shortly. The indebted country needs additional liquidity in order to support its banking system and make payments on its obligations.

    There are still some questions remained to agree though. The final amount of the third bailout program, the Greece’s third in the last five years should be evaluated. There are also some discrepancies regarding the country’s reforms, which need to be worked out so the fresh funds could be released.

    The impending amount of 3.2 billion euro is due to the European Central Bank on August 20, therefore the solution needs to be found shortly. The situation, nevertheless, is not pressing for an immediate solution as previously it was previously the case. The reason is that there are still additional 5 billion euros available for the Greece to borrow from a European fund.

    Greek stock exchange has declined for more than 15% during the last week of reopening, after being shut since June 29.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1062

    Target 2: 1.0864

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.1125



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5592

    Target 2: 1.5384

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.5670





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.80

    Target 2: 123.48

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.660

    Daily control level: 124.45




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9896

    Target 2: 0.9734

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3222

    Target 2: 1.3012

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.7494

    Target 2: 0.7328

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 0.7260




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1109.13

    Target 2: 1079.75

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.69

    Daily control level: 1105.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 50.38

    Target 2: 47.42

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4764

    Daily control level: 55.50



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  8. #438

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.08.2015



    After the through the night negotiations the final deal on the Greece’s bailout assistance was concluded. The agreement will keep the country in the Eurozone and avoid its bankruptcy.

    “An agreement has been reached. Some minor details are being discussed right now,” a Greek government official stated in an interview to reporters, after 18 hours consuming negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the ECB, International Monetary Fund, the European commission and the European Stability mechanism rescue fund.

    The details of the agreement have not yet been made public, and there is a possibility that the final amount of the financial assistance could exceed the initially indicated 86 billion euro.

    The primary budget deficit target was agreed at 0.25 percent of the gross domestic product this year, and 0.5 percent of the primary surplus for 2016, 1.75 percent for 2017 and 3.5 percent surplus in 2018.

    Furthermore, additional issues on conducting privatizations and handling non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector were also agreed on.

    Greece needs a quick release of the funds in order to settle a 3.2 billion euro of the bond repayment due to the European Central bank on August 20, which will now proceed smoothly.

    Besides, Athens hopes to receive 20 billion euro urgently, which is needed to support the country’s weakened banking system.

    Another 12 billion euro of the total amount will be allocated for the debt repayments with 5.3 billion euro in payments will be going to the state suppliers.

    Following the agreement, Greek parliament will have to approve the measures required by the international creditors, which should be made before the meeting of the euro-area finance ministers this Friday.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1122

    Target 2: 1.0914

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.1125


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5699

    Target 2: 1.5481

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 1.5670




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 125.29

    Target 2: 123.93

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.677

    Daily control level: 124.45




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9918

    Target 2: 0.9752

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3113

    Target 2: 1.2885

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 1.2910




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.7500

    Target 2: 0.7322

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7260



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1109.50

    Target 2: 1088.84

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.33

    Daily control level: 1105.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 52.38

    Target 2: 49.26

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5600

    Daily control level: 55.50



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  9. #439

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.08.2015




    Chinese Yuan continued to depreciate, extending yesterday’s losses after the People’ Bank of China weakened the currency for the second day in the row. The Yuan price declined against the 6.1162 on Monday to a four-year low of 6.4392 in Shanghai.

    The PBOC presented this change as an attempt for a free market reform, where the market forces will have more influence on determining the currency value.

    The Chinese currency devaluation was a made after the set of disappointing economic data was published and as some analysts believe, could serve as a beginning to the longer-term slide in the exchange rate.

    The rapid drop to around 4 percent in Chinese currency affected the markets worldwide, as investors fearing the further economic slump and are looking to switch their funds to safe-haven government debt. Meanwhile, the demand for the riskier assets is diminishing, with the equities, currencies and commodities experiencing a downward pressure.

    It is feared that the Chinese government action will lead to the currency wars deepening when other countries’ Central Banks could potentially follow suit and weaken their currencies.

    Asian stocks and emerging market currencies have tumbled this morning while MSCI’s Asia-pacific index fell to two-year low.

    The currencies of the economies associated especially close to the Chinese economy suffered hardest blow. The Australian Dollar has reached a new low against the US Dollar of 0.7214 this morning, being the pair’s six-year low.

    Brent Oil continued to tumble as it was trading below 49.50 support at the European session opening.

    S&P 500 index, based on the market capitalization of 500 large US companies has been declining for the second day in the row, bouncing off the 2100.00 level yesterday and now trading around 2063.00 mark.

    US Dollar index continued on the way down as well, after forming a double top pattern on the daily chart last week. It has now slid below 96.80 level.

    The Common European currency, however, has strengthened for the third consecutive day, after the final deal between Greece and its International creditors was arranged yesterday in the morning.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1148

    Target 2: 1.0934

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.1125




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5671

    Target 2: 1.5469

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.5670




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 125.83

    Target 2: 124.39

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7188

    Daily control level: 123.70




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9966

    Target 2: 0.9792

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3230

    Target 2: 1.2996

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7393

    Target 2: 0.7207

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.7425



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: UP

    Target 1: 1124.58

    Target 2: 1092.46

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.064

    Daily control level: 1077.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 51.57

    Target 2: 48.21

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.678

    Daily control level: 55.50



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  10. #440

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.08.2015



    This evening the Greek Parliament is due to assemble for an emergency session to approve the country’s third bailout agreement, concluded with the international creditors on Tuesday. The timing of the event is still uncertain.

    The activation of the deal will mean the Greece will be giving most of its sovereignty to the creditors, represented by the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission.

    The 29 pages of the new agreement, among the others, quotes the following: “The (Greek) government commits to consult and agree with the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund on all actions relevant for the achievement of the objectives of the memorandum of understanding before these are finalised and legally adopted.”

    The arrangement will also induce the major reforms in pension and taxation systems, as well as in health and welfare sectors. Privatizations of the public properties will be extended significantly.

    Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras remains positive that the deal will be approved, however, he has certain doubts whether all eurozone members will agree to it.

    “Despite the obstacles that some are trying to put before us, I’m optimistic we will reach the agreement and loan support from the European mechanism, which will put a final end to economic uncertainty,” Tsipras was quoted referring to the 86 billion euro deal during a visit to the Ministry of economics.

    Germany, among a few more European states, remains sceptical regarding the matter. Even though it considers the deal goes in the right direction it is not yet ready to say whether it was prepared for a vote in the Bundestag.

    Before the deal goes to Bundestag, it has to be approved by the Greek Parliament, which should be completed by the early hours of the Friday morning. As the ruling party Syriza has the opposition party support, the confidence that the bill will pass is very high.

    The approval of the deal will likely to bring the dissolution of the Syriza and forming a new party as soon as this autumn since the disagreements within the party are widening. Syriza MP Costas Isichos said the vote would lead to an “immediate divorce.”

    “We are facing major political developments where the ‘no’ front will take shape,” he continued, referring to the outcome of last month’s referendum on austerity measures.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: UP

    Target 1: 1.1272

    Target 2: 1.1042

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

    Daily control level: 1.0980



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5713

    Target 2: 1.5507

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.5670



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.96

    Target 2: 123.44

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588

    Daily control level: 123.80



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9848

    Target 2: 0.9658

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3099

    Target 2: 1.2855

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7472

    Target 2: 0.7282

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.7425




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1141.00

    Target 2: 1110.16

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.42

    Daily control level: 1077.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 52.00

    Target 2: 48.68

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6587

    Daily control level: 55.50





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