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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #441

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.08.2015


    Greek Government vote on the third bailout package, which has finally taken place this morning, was approved by 222 votes to 64, with only 11 abstentions. Preceding that, however, there was a serious disunity in the Parliament.

    “In angry exchanges, the conservative opposition rounded on the government, warning it not to take its support for granted. “If you want to provoke us – and for us to vote for it – you can’t have it both ways,” Vangelis Meimarakis, the leader of the New Democracy party told finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos” – reported by the watchers of the Greek debates.

    “On the left, former energy minister Panayiotis Lafazanis, who leads a rebel bloc of around a quarter of Syriza’s 149 MPs, pledged to “smash the eurozone dictatorship”, while in her concluding pre-vote remarks, Konstantopoulou announced: “I am not going to support the prime minister anymore.”

    Looking at the rest of the market, the German economy, the largest in the European Union, expanded less than forecasted as the morning release of the country’s preliminary quarterly GDP revealed. The GDP figure rose to mere 0.4% instead of projected 0.5%. It was also significantly lower than the 0.7% number of the May’s release. The Greek crisis and China’s turmoil have both played a substantial role in the decreasing global demand.

    French Preliminary GDP release had a similar outcome with the number coming to 0.0% instead of 0.2% increase. This was a large drop comparing to the May publication when the number stood at 0.7% after the revision.

    Later this afternoon, at 1:30 pm CET, we will see the release of the monthly Canadian Manufacturing Sales number, which represents the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers. This is one of the leading indicators of the economic health, as manufacturing industry is fast affected by the market circumstances and is an early indicator of hiring, investment and spending. This time the number is projected to expand to 2.3% comparing to the 0.1% of last month.

    At the same time, there will be monthly the US Producer Price Index will be published. PPI is a weighted index of the wholesale prices and shows trend within the US physical goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and commodities market and is therefore, a leading indicator of the country’s inflation. This time PPI is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the 0.4% figure published last month.

    The US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index will close the economic news week at 3:00 pm. Financial confidence is an important component of the consumer spending, which account for a major part of a country’s economic activity. The figure is based on the survey of about 500 respondents, rating the relative present and future economic conditions. This month the index is projected to increase from 93.1 to 93.5 mark.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1256

    Target 2: 1.1040

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.0980





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5709

    Target 2: 1.5507

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.5670



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.96

    Target 2: 123.44

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588

    Daily control level: 123.80



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9857

    Target 2: 0.9667

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3184

    Target 2: 1.2934

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7452

    Target 2: 0.7262

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.7425



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1129.90

    Target 2: 1100.12

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.89

    Daily control level: 1077.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 51.20

    Target 2: 47.96

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6214

    Daily control level: 55.50





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  2. #442

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.08.2015



    Friday’s positive US data helped the US Dollar Index to rebound from the recent decline, when the currency was trading at the four-week low, below 96.00 last week.

    The monthly Producer Price Index, representing the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers and leading indicator of the consumer inflation, came to 0.2%, higher than projected 0.1%.

    Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment has declined for the second consecutive month, published at 92.9, comparing to the expected 93.5 figure. Financial confidence is of crucial importance to the consumer spending and is accounting for the majority of economic activity. The overall trend for the data is on the rise since the middle of 2011.

    This morning Asian shares continued on the way down as Chinese market slump is still pressuring the global marketplace. Despite the fact that the Yuan has stabilized for the last number of days, underlining concerns regarding weaker Chinese economy and possibility of the further Yuan depreciation is one of the substantial obstacles for the market to recover.

    Last week’s China’s currency devaluation caused the investors to consider other markets such as Turkey and Malaysia, with the both countries undergoing political crises at the moment.

    Oil prices dropped to the six-year low as more oil rigs were opened last week. This has put an additional weight on the oil-export depending economies. USDCAD is nearing to retest 11-year low of 1.3210 it reached a week ago. Australian Dollar has also rebounded lower and is now trading around 0.7350 level, close to the AUDUSD six-year low of 0.7210.

    With the markets weakening globally, it will probably add a further boost to the US currency, as for now it is considered a “safe heaven” investment, with so many markets facing high volatility and unpredictability. In addition, the potential interest rate hike later this year, adds strength to the major world reserve currency.

    Today proves to be a rather quiet day with regards to the economic news releases. Adding that it is also the middle of the holiday’s month, no major market moves are expected to occur today.




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1226

    Target 2: 1.1006

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.1210




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5751

    Target 2: 1.5551

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.5670





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 124.93

    Target 2: 123.51

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7129

    Daily control level: 125.25





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9843

    Target 2: 0.9661

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.9710



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3213

    Target 2: 1.2967

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7465

    Target 2: 0.7283

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.7425



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1129.59

    Target 2: 1099.39

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.10

    Daily control level: 1077.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 50.34

    Target 2: 47.20

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5664

    Daily control level: 55.50


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  3. #443

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.08.2015



    This morning at 9:30 am London time, the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers.

    The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate.

    The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance.

    The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011, when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further.

    Even though since then the data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to drop even lower in the near future.

    The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extend prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone.

    GBPUSD is fluctuating in 1.5670- 1.5460 range for the fifth consecutive week after it reconfirmed the breach of the upward trendline in the middle of July. The CPI is projected to come out without changes at 0.0%, with the numbers coming lower than projected could likely have a weakening effect on the British Pound.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1181

    Target 2: 1.0971

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.1210



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.5681

    Target 2: 1.5483

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.5670





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 125.05

    Target 2: 123.71

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6740

    Daily control level: 125.25





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9876

    Target 2: 0.9700

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.9710




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3198

    Target 2: 1.2958

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 1.2910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7461

    Target 2: 0.7281

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7425




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1132.12

    Target 2: 1102.72

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70

    Daily control level: 1077.00







    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 50.23

    Target 2: 47.23

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007

    Daily control level: 55.50




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  4. #444

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.08.2015



    Asian shares dropped to two-year low this morning, as Chinese stock market continues to decline, following last week’s yuan devaluation. Fears about the stability of the China’s economy influenced a further sell-off with Shanghai Composite Index sliding 6.1%.

    In a stabilization attempt, yesterday China’s Central bank injected 120 Billion yuan into the market, which was largest since January 2014 when the bank added 150 billion yuan liquidity through 14-day repos.

    However, market confidence declined further, when the China’s “national team”, the government assigned group, which was buying stocks to support the market, has reduced its operations, causing the concerns that the government is withdrawing its support.

    “China’s securities regulator said late last week that the market had normalised and the government would allow market forces to play a bigger role in determining stock prices” – Reuters reports.

    The slowdown of the China’s economy has substantially weakened commodity prices. Copper value, for example, slid to six-year low, breaking the psychological level of 5.000 US dollars per tonne and now trading below it.

    Brent price declined to more than a five-month low of 48.44 yesterday, continuing the downward trend it set at the end of the June last year.

    Presently the main concerns of the global investors are the Chinese economy and the US interest rate hike, which is expected to be introduced by the end of this year including the possibility of this action as early as the following month.

    Following last week yuan devaluation and current market turmoil, there are fears that the crisis will spread to the other economies, causing pressure even on the US-denominated debt.

    The emerging economies markets were hit the hardest when MSCI emerging markets index dropped to more than 20%, its lowest level since 2011. The number of the emerging markets currencies are facing the liquidity outflow.

    The investments are being transferred to the US dollar, currently the market’s “safe heaven”, with the prospects of the nearing interest rate hike adding stability to the major world’s reserve currency.

    The US S&P 500 however, slid to 0.26% yesterday. The September’s futures of the UK’s FTSE 100 have also opened lower this morning after the trend formed a lower high last week.

    Gold, conversely, is trading higher currently targeting to retest last week’s high of 1127.00, after it reconfirmed the breach of the downward trend channel last Wednesday.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1121

    Target 2: 1.0918

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.1210





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5763

    Target 2: 1.5553

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.5670



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 125.04

    Target 2: 123.74

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6500

    Daily control level: 125.25






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.9857

    Target 2: 0.9683

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.9710


    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3176

    Target 2: 1.2938

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 1.2910




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7425

    Target 2: 0.7245

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7425





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1132.24

    Target 2: 1102.84

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70

    Daily control level: 1077.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 50.19

    Target 2: 47.21

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4900

    Daily control level: 55.50


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  5. #445

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.08.2015



    Today Greece prepares to receive the first tranche of the new 86 billion euro bailout deal, which was approved by German Bundestag yesterday. However, there is still a lot of scepticism whether Greece will be able to implement all the reforms required by the three-year financial aid programme.

    The cash-strapped country is due to receive the first instalment from the European Stability Mechanism amounting to 26 billion euro, 13 billion euro of which will be available immediately, so the bond’s repayment to the European Central Bank can be made without delay. The rest of the funds will be distributed to the country in several parts and will help Greece to recapitalize its struggling banking sector.

    Under the current program Greece should undertake strict conditions which are “aiming at setting right public finances and administration and dealing with the economy and problems in the financial sector” – the Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in his statement.

    The implementation of the reforms will be closely monitored and assessed whether all the commitments are met. The International Monetary Fund will review the current Greece bailout programme in order to decide whether to participate in it.

    The agreement was approved by the German Bundestag after the intensive debates regarding the sustainability of the new deal.

    “Following three hours of lively debate, 453 voted in favour of the rescue package, while 113 voted against it and 18 MPs abstained. A total of 63 MPs of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU conservative alliance rebelled against the government despite warnings that there would be consequences if they failed to toe the party line. Three conservative MPs were among those who abstained” – as the Guardian reports.

    “Bundestag observers said that despite being held during the summer holiday and with some MPs either ill or unable to return from far-flung places, never had so few voted in such an important vote. It was a sign of how controversial the topic has been” – it continues.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1217

    Target 2: 1.1021

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 0.0980





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5781

    Target 2: 1.5577

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.5550





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 125.44

    Target 2: 124.12

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6561

    Daily control level: 123.00




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.9744

    Target 2: 0.9570

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.9900






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3247

    Target 2: 1.3007

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 1.2960




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7434

    Target 2: 0.7258

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7425




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1148.02

    Target 2: 1119.10

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.46

    Daily control level: 1112.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 48.77

    Target 2: 45.77

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5029

    Daily control level: 51.10



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  6. #446

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.08.2015



    A little over 7 months ago Alexis Tsipras led his SYRIZA party to an election victory on January 26. Mr. Tsipras since taking the leadership of the radical left SYRIZA in 2009 has been a driving force that has swept away the political elite that has taken Greece to the brink of ruin and bankruptcy.

    Alexis has had an eventful tenure as the Greek Prime. His party was elected to office on a promise to roll back the much-hated austerity program. His leadership did cause a great deal of political and economic instability, but it also opened up the debate on which way the European project was heading.

    Although Tsipras pressed home his domestic popularity by winning a referendum which said no to further austerity, the realities of the grim economic situation and hard line taken by European partners of Greece led to a dramatic U-turn by the Greek Prime Minister.

    Alexis Tsipras acceptance of the harsh terms set out in the third austerity programme has now split the SYRIZA party. The left faction of the party led by the former Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and the former Parliamentary Speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou both former close associates of Alexis Tsipras have become the Greek Prime Ministers most outspoken critics.

    The Greek political system has always been known for its fractious character. With the anger and opposition from the radical elements to the new austerity agreement being so strong, the possibility of the left faction splintering away from the core of SYRIZA is now very high.

    The strength of internal opposition within his own SYRIZA party and the size political U-Turn which in Greek is called a kolotoumba performed by Mr.Tsipras meant that his resignation and the request of a fresh mandate from the Greek public was always on the cards and as such is not a great surprise.

    The Greek Prime Minister has a moral obligation to ask the Greek people to back him and the EUR 86 billion three-year bailout agreement. The calling of the snap election is a risk, but the popularity of Tsipras is high. If you add to this the relief of the Greek public to the acceptance of the austerity programme the possibility of Alexis Tsipras once again leading the rump of what remains of SYRIZA to a second election victory is strong.

    The timing of this election could not be better. Tsipras having transformed himself from an activist of the left to a new-born liberal of the political establishment also has support from other European Governments and European and international institutions. In reality only Alexis Tsipras as the leader of a new Greek Government that is untouched by the political scandals, corruption and mismanagement that blighted the establishment regimes of PASOK and New Democracy can sell to the Greek people a rescue plan that is heavy on spending cuts and tax rises.

    Does Mr. Tsipras agree to the plan? Well, that is another question but what choice did he have other than the unthinkable of exiting the Eurozone.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1346

    Target 2: 1.1134

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.1100




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5790

    Target 2: 1.5586

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.5600



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 124.09

    Target 2: 122.67

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71

    Daily control level: 124.00





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9672

    Target 2: 0.9494

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.9650




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3216

    Target 2: 1.2956

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

    Daily control level: 1.3050




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7422

    Target 2: 0.7246

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7400



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1149.19

    Target 2: 1117.97

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61

    Daily control level: 1108.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 42.48

    Target 2: 39.52

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48

    Daily control level: 42.50






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  7. #447

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.08.2015




    The People’s Bank of China cut interest rate and also has lowered the reserve requirements for the banking sector yesterday, hoping to support the struggling economy. The one-year benchmark interest rate was cut by 25 basis points, with the current rate now of 4.6 percent. At the same time the reserves were allowed to be reduced by 50 basis points to 18 percent.

    The action followed one more day stock plunging on Tuesday, seeing the investors desperate in expectations of new supportive measures by the Chinese government. The major Chinese indices declined to more than 8 percent on Monday, with the following day’s decline accounted to approximate 7 percentage points.

    The attempt to support plunging market was the next step after the investments of hundreds of billions dollars by the Chinese government to support the equities, failed to bring any sustainable result.

    The China’s turmoil, the world’s second-largest economy and one of the main global engines, has sent a shockwave around the world, causing all the major indexes to decline sharply on Monday, which consequently was called “Black Monday”, as the amount of losses counted in billions of dollars.

    Despite all the efforts to prop-up the Chinese stock market, the decline continues, with Shanghai Composite declining by another 1.3 percent by yesterday’s close. The index is now trading at 2927 level, its lowest since December 2014.

    FTSE100, the main British benchmark index continued the decline, despite the brief retracement last afternoon. It is currently trading below 6000 mark, losing 1.8 percent of the value. The German DAX is following the trend with 1.9 percent loss up to now, trading at 9.955 this morning. French CAC 40 faced similar faith, declining 2.05 percent up to now.

    The US Dollar Index has retraced to trade above 94.00 mark, after it reached 92.52 low on Monday. In the meantime, EURUSD has reconfirmed the reversal to the upward trend, currently trading around 1.1500 level. High volatility seems very likely to hold in the coming days.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1748

    Target 2: 1.1486

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 0.0980



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5880

    Target 2: 1.5670

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.5615



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 119.62

    Target 2: 117.18

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.2151

    Daily control level: 124.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.9407

    Target 2: 0.9193

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 0.9670





    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3416

    Target 2: 1.3156

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

    Daily control level: 1.2960



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7256

    Target 2: 0.7056

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 0.7360




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1172.02

    Target 2: 1138.68

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.67

    Daily control level: 1112.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 44.73

    Target 2: 41.55

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5940

    Daily control level: 49.30



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  8. #448

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.08.2015




    The Dow Jones Industrial Average index surged higher last afternoon, closing the day with the biggest single day gains since 2011.

    The indicator was trading 627 points higher and after incurring substantial volatility during the day closed 619 points up, which amounts to 3.96 percent of the index increase. S&P 500 at the same time rose to 3.90 percent, lifting by 72.90 points to 1.940,51 level.

    William Dudley, the President of the NY Federal Reserve has hinted in the yesterday’s speech at the press conference about the local and regional economy that the interest rate hike is still on the agenda, though with probabilities of the event occurring later than in September, as was previously projected by investors based on the Janet Yellen earlier communications.

    The influential speaker has also reassured the auditory that the recent turmoil in China will not affect the US economy significantly.

    “The decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago,” he said.

    “The stock market has to move a lot – and stay there – to have implications for the US economy. What we’re seeing is not a US problem. This is very different from the financial crisis.”

    The indications of the hike delay, meaning that the credit costs will remain at the low levels for some time have calmed down the investors. The action is expected to affect positively the global markets, as the prospect of the investments outflow now seems to be reduced.

    Nevertheless, Chinese markets continued on the way down, with even the Tuesday’s interest rate cut and further injection of 140 billion yuan by the government on Wednesday were incapable to support the situation. The Shanghai Composite closed down 1.3% yesterday, the fifth consecutive session towards the south.

    The People’s Bank of China decided to cut interest rate for the fifth time in nine month so to induce banks for more funds availability to the public, as Chinese economic growth and manufacturing output are slowing down. The current official figures show the growth rate at 7 percent, whereas many analysts agree that the real figure will be closer to 5 percent.

    European markets were tumbling as well, with the British FTSE 100 closing the day 102 points lower and 15 percent down from its record high. Germany’s DAX and Spain’s IBEX both lost 1.3 percent, while the French CAC dropped 1.4 percent.

    The US Dollar index has opened this morning higher, trading up for the third consecutive day. The index is currently fluctuating around 95.35 level, rebounding from the Monday’s low of 92.52.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1464

    Target 2: 1.11164

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

    Daily control level: 0.0980




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5571

    Target 2: 1.5345

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.5615




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.17

    Target 2: 118.57

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3040

    Daily control level: 116.80



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9680

    Target 2: 0.9410

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

    Daily control level: 0.9780




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3428

    Target 2: 1.3154

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

    Daily control level: 0.0137





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7221

    Target 2: 0.7021

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 0.7360




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1143.58

    Target 2: 1107.58

    Projected range in ATR’s: 18.00

    Daily control level: 1112.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 45.80

    Target 2: 42.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6471

    Daily control level: 49.30



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  9. #449

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.08.2015



    Asian shares prolonged their upturn as the Chinese and US markets were recovering for the second consecutive day.

    Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite index surged 5.3 percent higher by the yesterday’s close, after crushing by 23 percent over the last five sessions. The revival came after it was announced that the People’s Bank of China purchased additional stock becoming a buyer of last resort, due to the absence of the real demand.

    Moreover, it gave an order to the state-owned banks to purchase more of the national currency. These actions followed the reduction of the interest rate earlier this week for the fifth time in nine months.

    Among the measures, which raised the market sentiment was the announcement that Chinese pension funds will invest as much as 313 billion US dollars in the country’s stock market. Analysts expect some more government intervention today, therefore propping up the weakened stock market further.

    Positive news from China have affected well the global markets, diminishing the fears that the slowing Chinese economy would weight on the rest of the world which up to now wiped out more than 2 trillion US Dollars in market capitalization.

    Wednesday comments by William Dudley, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, which hinted that the rate hike will be postponed from the earlier expected month of September, added more of a reassurance to investors.

    The US preliminary GDP numbers beat the economists the expectations coming to 3.7 percent yesterday, have increased the desirability of the major world’s reserve currency, helping the dollar index gaining value for the third successive day in a row, which was trading above 96.00 level during the previous trading session.

    Have all the above actions supported the real market upraise and will serve as a genuine revival or just as a mere dead cat bounce, should become clear within a short period of time.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1398

    Target 2: 1.1090

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

    Daily control level: 0.0980



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5515

    Target 2: 1.5291

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

    Daily control level: 1.5615



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 122.37

    Target 2: 119.66

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3588

    Daily control level: 116.80


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9783

    Target 2: 0.9537

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123

    Daily control level: 0.9780




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3326

    Target 2: 1.3068

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129

    Daily control level: 0.0137



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7265

    Target 2: 0.7063

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 0.7360




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1142.98

    Target 2: 1107.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 17.59

    Daily control level: 1112.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 49.61

    Target 2: 45.99

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8129

    Daily control level: 49.30




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  10. #450

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.08.2015



    The European equities have opened lower this morning following their Asian counterparts, as worries over Chinese government support abandonment invoked the selling mood in investors.

    The UK markets will remain closed due to the British bank holiday today.

    Following the Chinese government decision to call off the further support to the country stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index declined nearly 3 percent on Monday, following last week revival.

    German DAX 30 opened 0.8 percent lower at 10,202.00 this morning, continuing the daily downward trend the Index of the largest EU economy has formed in the middle of this July. The EU Stoxx 50 had a similar fate, opening at 3,261.50, decreasing approximately 0.70 percent.

    The German Retail Sales numbers came out on the positive note today, increasing to 1.4 percent from -1.0 percent last month. This helped the common European currency rebound higher against the US Dollar, following four consecutive days of the decline last week.

    The US dollar index itself was trading lower, bouncing off the 96.20 resistance level. The index is fluctuating within 93.00- 98.00 borders since the beginning of last April, with the signs of lost upward momentum.

    Gold remained trading at the Friday’s close level, after it broke the upward trend support line at the end of the previous week. It seems the precious metal is expecting some additional data from the global markets in order to decide on the move further.

    Looking at the forthcoming releases, at 10.00 am London time the EuroStat will publish the Eurozone’s August Consumer Price Index inflation estimates. The numbers are projected to stay without change, with the CPI Flash Estimate index being at 0.2 percent and the Core CPI Flash Estimate at 1.0 percent.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1325

    Target 2: 1.1011

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157

    Daily control level: 0.1020



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5528

    Target 2: 1.5298

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

    Daily control level: 1.5815


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.04

    Target 2: 120.24

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4031

    Daily control level: 124.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.97401

    Target 2: 0.9500

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 0.9780



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3335

    Target 2: 1.3081

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 0.0137



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7246

    Target 2: 0.7054

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 0.7360




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1150.70

    Target 2: 1115.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 17.70

    Daily control level: 1112.00






    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 51.87

    Target 2: 48.11

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8800

    Daily control level: 51.10



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