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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #451

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.09.2015



    After the recent Chinese turmoil, many economists have shifted their outlook regarding the US interest rate hike closer to the end of the year, rather than the earlier expected month of September.

    At the moment, the September rate hike has declined to below 50 percent according to a survey, conducted by Bloomberg recently, which is now down from 77 percent last month.

    “Forty-eight percent of 54 economists surveyed Aug. 27-31 by Bloomberg News see a September increase in the benchmark lending rate, the first move up since 2006. That’s down from 77 percent in an Aug. 7-12 survey, though it is still double the 24 percent who say the first move will occur in December. Seventeen percent said October” – Bloomberg news agency reports.

    The latest speech by the FOMC member and the Fed’s vice chairman Stanley Fischer at the 2015 Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole last Saturday gave no indications regarding the timing of the next rate increase. By and large, it seems to be a tough call for the Federal Reserve to make such a decision.

    The Federal Reserve has last raised the interest rates nine years ago, with the increase by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent. However, following housing market collapse and the consequent sliding into recession have soon reversed these actions, with the Fed benchmark interest rate set between 0.0 percent and 0.25 percent by December 2008.

    As the Federal Reserve monetary policy’s main function is to strive for the maximum employment and stable prices, in 2011 the central bank determined that 2 percent target inflation rate would be the best to achieve such results and keep the economic growth at a healthy pace.

    A reduction of the interest rate is commonly promoting more consumer spending, increasing inflation and economic revival. This time, however, since the interest rate was already at zero and still deemed ineffective, further actions such a Quantitative easing programmes were taken. At the moment, all these measures have been completed and the US economy showing an improvement, with the jobs market being almost at the prerecession at 5.3 percent unemployment rate.

    Hence, the Fed have started to consider the interest rates tightening, with such expectations sending the US currency up since the May of 2014. However sharp interest rate hike could cause the damages to not yet fully healed US economy, therefore such steps are still causing a contemplation among the US policy makers. In addition, the only expectations of such actions have already disrupted the global markets and put pressure on the emerging economies.

    Surely enough the next rate increase should not exceed 25 basis points. Regarding the timing, some further lights will be given at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 17 of September.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1362

    Target 2: 1.1058

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

    Daily control level: 0.1020






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5460

    Target 2: 1.5226

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.5815



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 122.54

    Target 2: 119.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4158

    Daily control level: 124.60





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9786

    Target 2: 0.9554

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 0.9780




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3270

    Target 2: 1.3008

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 1.3055




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7204

    Target 2: 0.7018

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.7360



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1150.47

    Target 2: 1118.19

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.14

    Daily control level: 1112.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 55.42

    Target 2: 50.90

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.257

    Daily control level: 42.55



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  2. #452

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.09.2015



    September did not begin well for the global stock markets, attesting that the last week’s revival was probably just a mere dead cat bounce.

    Rising worries about the China’s slowing economy is prompting the sell-off of the international equities. Numerous interventions by the Chinese government to stabilize the markets brought little result when the Chinese equities were collapsing from June’s high over the last two months.

    Furthermore, weak manufacturing reports from China, Europe and the United States invoked additional concerns about the prospects of the global growth.

    European stocks followed the Asian ones down this morning, with no end to market volatility. The UK’s FTSE 100 opened 2.5 percent lower, after its worst month in the last four years. Earlier, Shanghai Composite index closed down a modest 1.2 percent, while Japan Nikkei slumped 3.8 percent, while the rest of the Asian equities were down to more than 2 percent.

    There are still chances that the US Federal Reserve may still go ahead with the rate hike though probabilities of such an action significantly lower after last month markets turbulence.

    Such prospects increase investors’ insecurity, causing them to look for the stability elsewhere after withdrawing their investments from the emerging markets. In addition, the likelihood of the rising borrowing costs in the US adds to the liquidity outflow from the more fragile economies.

    Returning to the two most significant world’s commodities, we see the following picture.

    Oil price fell to more than 3 percent yesterday, with the Brent crude being down to more than four dollars since last Monday highs and now trades at the below 50 mark, compared to the last summer’s high of above 115 US dollars per barrel.

    The previous three-day revival of the commodity followed the news that OPEC expressed its willingness to discuss the mutually beneficial oil price level with the non-member oil producing countries. Nonetheless, the barriers for consensus between the counterparts still remain high.

    The only significant frontrunner was Gold, with the investors seeking “the safe heaven” during the times of uncertainty. The precious metal was on the way up again, after 3.5 percent rise in August.

    The analysts see the uncertainty likely to continue in the near future.




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1464

    Target 2: 1.1164

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

    Daily control level: 0.1020





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5420

    Target 2: 1.5186

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.5815





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 120.84

    Target 2: 117.86

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4896

    Daily control level: 124.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9703

    Target 2: 0.9467

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 0.9780


    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.3383

    Target 2: 1.3129

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 1.3055





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7109

    Target 2: 0.6919

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.7360


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1155.59

    Target 2: 1123.69

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.95

    Daily control level: 1112.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 55.49

    Target 2: 46.55

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.469

    Daily control level: 42.55



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  3. #453

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.09.2015




    Unless you have been on vacation for the whole of August you might have noticed that the foreign exchange markets have been very volatile during the prior month.

    During the summer months, we are supposed to see the markets trade within small ranges. However, this has not been the case with typical Average True Range levels (ATR) ranging from the 140’s for EURUSD down to a still very large 90’s for AUDUSD.

    Although August has come and gone, the fallout from China still continues to rile the markets. With the summer coming to a close, the action on the Forex markets during the coming autumn and winter months should continue to entertain some and give others frayed nerves.

    Having only arrived back from my own mini-family break yesterday I have had a busy couple of days trying to catch up and make sense of what has gone on before. What comes to mind is a market that offers a lot of upside opportunity and downside risk.

    Understanding and being aware of the up and coming event risks is of paramount importance and although we are now nearing the close of the first week in September, event-driven market volatility could see Thursday and Friday experience some extreme price action.

    The big event of today is, of course, the European Central Bank’s press conference which takes place at 1:30 pm (London). These events are always keenly anticipated however this press conference is taking place after the tumultuous events that can only be described as the real China syndrome.

    We have already have had a taste of what could be in store for us with the ECB Executive Board Member Mr. Peter Praet stating that Central Banks inflation targeting will take into account any slowdown in China and the drop-off in the price of Oil.

    Mario Draghi the ECB boss will no doubt touch on these issues during today’s press conference, however, there is the added worry of what to do about the Euro. Confidence in the single currency has returned with traders bidding up EURUSD during the late spring and summer months. Only last week from a technical perspective EURUSD printed a weekly higher high.

    If this bullishness for the Euro continues the ECB will become increasingly concerned that a strong single currency will play havoc to its inflation targeting. I always find the subject of inflation targeting a little confusing. Is low inflation or deflation such a big issue when businesses and the citizens of the European Union can purchase products, services and commodities for less?

    I am sure Mr. Draghi will enlighten us with more pearls of wisdom this afternoon.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1373

    Target 2: 1.1079

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0147

    Daily control level: 1.1320





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5414

    Target 2: 1.5182

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

    Daily control level: 1.5330


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.80

    Target 2: 118.83

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48

    Daily control level: 121.40




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9802

    Target 2: 0.9566

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 0.9560







    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3396

    Target 2: 1.3140

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

    Daily control level: 1.3250



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7134

    Target 2: 0.6940

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 0.7060






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1149.15

    Target 2: 1117.71

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.72

    Daily control level: 1142.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.95

    Target 2: 43.87

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.54

    Daily control level: 43.50





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  4. #454

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.09.2015



    Yesterday’s ECB press conference did not hold many surprises however the markets took their cue from the Central Bank chief as the Euro promptly sold off.

    As expected the outlook for both inflation and Euro Area growth dominated Thursday’s event with Mr Draghi saying that the ECB had cut its forecasts for both.

    The ECB chief said that he expected inflation to remain extremely low for a considerable time. It would appear that the issue of extremely low inflation in the Euro Area has now become a chronic problem.

    On economic activity, Mario Draghi said that Euro Area growth will rise at a slower pace than had been earlier predicted.

    Due to the continuing concerns over both inflation and growth Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB would be ready to add to an already large programme of stimulus.

    The ECB yesterday kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% which was expected. In terms of other numbers, the ECB has revised its forecast for growth to 1.4% instead of 1.5% for 2015 and 1.7% instead of 1.9% for 2016.

    The global outlook was also mentioned with Mr Draghi pointing to the problems facing the emerging markets and China during the month of August. According to ECB chief, these global issues had increased the risks and could impact Eurozone growth.

    Draghi and his colleagues have now put out the message that they are ready to expand the Euro Areas Quantitative Easing programme by either spending more on a monthly basis, putting back the end of the QE programme to after September 2016, increasing the scope of the assets that can be purchased or a combination of all of the above.

    I taking such a dovish stance the Euro should ultimately weaken value against the Green Back. The days of EURUSD trading above the 1.1000 level could potentially end soon.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1275

    Target 2: 1.0969

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

    Daily control level: 1.1240




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5370

    Target 2: 1.5140

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

    Daily control level: 1.5330



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.64

    Target 2: 118.48

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58

    Daily control level: 120.70



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9854

    Target 2: 0.9610

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

    Daily control level: 0.9695




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3315

    Target 2: 1.3045

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

    Daily control level: 1.3325






    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7113

    Target 2: 0.6917

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 0.7060



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1141.01

    Target 2: 1109.01

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.00

    Daily control level: 1142.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 49.68

    Target 2: 44.29

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.70

    Daily control level: 43.50





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  5. #455

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.09.2015




    The finance minister of Saudi Arabia has said that the Government will delay certain state projects. This move has been taken with the aim to cut in State spending.

    However, Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf said that Saudi Arabian finances are in good health and that the low price of oil was not a problem and can be managed.

    The oil-rich Gulf State is the biggest exporter of crude has increased production in a bid to maintain its market share in the face of increased but more expensive shale production that originates from the United States.

    The increase in production has driven down the price of Oil from around US$112.00 per barrel in August 2013 to just under US$46.00 per barrel at the start of this week.
    Mr. al-Assaf tried to reinforce the Saud position by telling CNBC Arabia in an interview that

    “We have built reserves, cut public debt to near-zero levels and we are now working on cutting unnecessary expenses while focusing on main development projects and on building human resources in the kingdom,”

    The Saudi Arabian government had built up some US$ 600 billion in reserves which were accumulated during the good times when the oil price was much higher. However according to the International Monetary Fund Saudi Arabia needs to sell oil at US$ 106.00 to balance is budget during the period 2015.

    Although the substantial cash pile that Saudi Arabia has accumulated will enable it to continue to fund a large public sector workforce and crucial infrastructure projects there will be a growing concern within the Government that such high levels of production will lead to a squandering of this valuable cash asset.

    Saudi Arabia without question is the giant within the globes crude producers but can it really carry on and fight the US shale sector without damaging its own economy in the long run.

    Furthermore, the United States shale community will and has responded to the prevailing market conditions. Due to the historically low crude prices the US shale industry has found ways to become leaner and more efficient. This process will continue and this, in the long run, will eventually force the Saudi government to reassess its current policy.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1318

    Target 2: 1.1004

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157

    Daily control level: 1.1200





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5286

    Target 2: 1.5060

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.5250



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 120.54

    Target 2: 117.24

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.65

    Daily control level: 120.70





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9866

    Target 2: 0.9616

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125

    Daily control level: 0.9695



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3392

    Target 2: 1.3118

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0137

    Daily control level: 1.3325



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7025

    Target 2: 0.6825

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 0.7000


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1139.98

    Target 2: 1106.81

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.59

    Daily control level: 1127.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.76

    Target 2: 43.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.68

    Daily control level: 43.50




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  6. #456

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.09.2015



    Yesterday Eurostat which is responsible for European Economic statistics published revised data on growth numbers.

    The new data for the 19 Eurozone members has now been revised upwards. The new revisions indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period of April to June as been increased to 0.4%. The previous first estimate being 0.3%.

    There was more good news for European finance ministers and the ECB when Eurostat announced that first quarter GDP had been revised upwards from 0.4% to 0.5%.

    The growth news update coincided with a Destatis publishing German Trade Balance data. This new data would seem to indicate that the expansion in the German economy was continuing. This can be confirmed by Destatis announcing that both imports and exports have risen to new record levels. Although there was an expansion in both imports and exports, the trade surplus increased due to EUR 25 billion. This is due to exports increasing at a much faster pace than imports.

    Back to the European growth data story, there is one caveat in that Irish data was added as part of the revision for the first quarter of 2015. As Ireland is at the present time the fastest growing member of the Euro Area with a dizzy rate of expansion of 1.4% the jump higher in the revised data is to be expected.

    However, the growth picture is a lot rosier than what we have become accustomed to. As such the healthier economic outlook could for the time being delay any European Central Bank decision to expand the already large quantitative easing programme.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1350

    Target 2: 1.1050

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

    Daily control level: 1.1120





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5510

    Target 2: 1.5275

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 1.5150



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.45

    Target 2: 118.10

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.69

    Daily control level: 118.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9910

    Target 2: 0.9665

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123

    Daily control level: 0.9695






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3335

    Target 2: 1.3075

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 1.3325



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7115

    Target 2: 0.6910

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 0.6920






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1136.00

    Target 2: 1106.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.73

    Daily control level: 1127.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.00

    Target 2: 43.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.70

    Daily control level: 43.50






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  7. #457

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.09.2015




    As expected the Bank of England kept the UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5%. The vote to keep the benchmark rate unchanged although not unanimous obtained a large majority with only one of the 9 committee members wanting to see an increase.

    The lone dissenter was once again Monetary Policy Committee Ian McCafferty. Mr. Mcafferty voted for an increase the last time the MPC debated the merits of hiking interest rates. As such Mr. Mcafferty has maintained his hawkish stance by citing that there is now a growing inflation risk and that increasing costs could lead to the CPI could overshooting its 2% target.

    However, the most 0.25% increase that Mr. Mcafferty wanted was not forthcoming. The doves on the Monetary Policy Committee can point to the majority view being supported by recent comments made both the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) that increasing UK interest rates now would be premature and risky. That the MPC took the safe wait and see approach for now is understandable.

    Furthermore with the FOMC over in the United States has yet to decide on increasing its own benchmark interest rate the Bank of England will almost certainly wait for their American colleagues to act first in normalizing their own interest rate environment.

    There were a couple of key points that could be taken from yesterday’s announcement. Firstly the move to lower third quarter GDP from 0.7% to 0.6% would seem to indicate that the Bank of England and its Governor Mr. Mark Carney will have concerns that to increase rates now will only weaken the GDP picture. This is in line with the World Bank and IMF’s concerns.

    The other key point was that of international cross-border contagion and more specifically the recent and dramatic Chinese economic meltdown and worries for the Emerging Markets have added risks to the UK economy, however, according to their MPC, the Bank of England August outlook has not been sufficiently altered by these events.

    The MPC view would seem to have noted the global economic turmoil and will act and adjust their policy as and when it is required. The key risk event for the Emerging Markets and China would appear to be the economic fallout post a US interest rate hike. With the September FOMC meeting fast approaching the MPC will soon have additional hard data to analyze.

    The inflation outlook continues to concern the Bank of England with the 2% inflation target remaining a fair distance away. Current CPI levels at present are flat lining close to zero and with commodity and oil price risk continuing to add downside pressure to prices. However, the Bank of England has an expectation that inflation will rise to around 1% in the first part of 2016.

    Taking what we can from yesterday’s announcement it would appear that the MPC will definitely increase interest rates in the future but are not in any hurry to make their move this year. What we really need to see is a lift off in the United States with interest rates being increased there first and enough data in Q4 that supports a UK interest rate nominalization early in 2016.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1405

    Target 2: 1.1155

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126

    Daily control level: 1.1170




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5560

    Target 2: 1.5330

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114

    Daily control level: 1.5350




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.95

    Target 2: 119.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.32

    Daily control level: 120.00


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9840

    Target 2: 0.9620

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 0.9695



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3375

    Target 2: 1.3125

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 1.3310





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7105

    Target 2: 0.6925

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.6945



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1121.15

    Target 2: 1090.55

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.11

    Daily control level: 1127.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 48.80

    Target 2: 43.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.74

    Daily control level: 46.75


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  8. #458

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.09.2015




    This week sees the Federal Reserve announce it’s much-anticipated interest rate decision which takes place this coming Thursday.

    However, long before this key event taking place the week has already started with Chinese National Bureau of Statistics releasing its Monthly, year on year Industrial Production number.

    Although the overnight announcement of 6.1% did manage to print higher than the prior month the trend since the 2010 high continues to be solidly down with this release also missing the 6.4% forecast.

    Back to today and Monday has little in the way if data events other than Eurostat releasing its monthly Eurozone monthly Industrial Production number. Thus release is due to take place at 10:00 am London. It is expected that the prior months negative reading of -0.4% will be eclipsed by a forecast of 0.3%.

    Traders and investors of the Swiss France however may find that they have a busy morning with both monthly Producer Price Index and year on year Retail Sales number being released this morning at 8:15 am London time.

    As a precursor of what is to come later in the week, on Tuesday we have more Central Banks coming into view. The Reserve Bank of Australia early on Tuesday morning will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

    The Bank of Japan not to be left out on Tuesday will also release its Monetary Policy Statement. This announcement will coincide with a press conference.

    Tuesday is actually a very busy day in terms of data with UK CPI being released, together with the important German ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator.

    Across the Atlantic and with an eye on what will happen this Thursday we get a glimpse of the how the US consumer is feeling with the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales numbers being announced.

    Wednesday we have important jobs numbers from the UK with a splurge of data being released at 9:30 am London time. Simultaneously data will be announced for the UK, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate.

    The Loonie also comes into focus on Wednesday with Statistics Canada announcing its monthly, Manufacturing Sales number.

    A day before the FOMC decision we also have important inflation data from the US with monthly CPI and Core CPI data. Can this release so close to the Federal Reserve announcement have any bearing on Thursday’s decision?

    This Thursday is, of course, the big day which Traders and Investors have been waiting for. Setting the tone for Thursday we have the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda due to speak.
    This is followed by the Swiss National Bank announcing its latest LIBOR decision and Monetary Policy Assessment.

    Staying in Europe the UK’s Office for National Statistics will publish Retail Sales Data. With the Bank of England Governor and other committee members waiting for the FOMC to move first, a good number will increase the pressure and make an interest rate increase in early 2016 all the more likely.

    Leading up to the FOMC decision we have the US building Permits and Unemployment Claims numbers which are being announced at 1:30 pm London time. This is followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 3:00 pm.

    Finally, we get to 7:00 pm London and the FOMC announcement for the Federal Funds rate. With many forecasting a hike by 25 basis points from 0.25% to 0.50% whatever is the outcome, it is due to cause lots of market volatility.

    Friday, it is very much a case of picking up the pieces of what happened the night before. We do have more action from the Central Banks with the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaking and more monetary policy minutes, this time from the Bank of Japan.

    The week is rounded off with Canadian Inflation data with both the CPI and Core CPI being announced.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1450

    Target 2: 1.1210

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 1.1255



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5540

    Target 2: 1.5320

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5400



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.75

    Target 2: 119.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.23

    Daily control level: 120.80




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9795

    Target 2: 0.9590

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 0.9800


    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3370

    Target 2: 1.3130

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

    Daily control level: 1.3175



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7170

    Target 2: 0.6990

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7035



    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1121.00

    Target 2: 1091.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 13.64

    Daily control level: 1115.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 48.00

    Target 2: 42.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.74

    Daily control level: 46.40



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  9. #459

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.09.2015



    As we approach Thursday, many traders and investors will now be working through their minds and penning scenarios for this much anticipated Federal Funds Rate decision.

    Although a lot of trading is reactive in nature with knee-jerk decisions taken off the outcome of an economic news event the lead up to this Federal Reserve decision has given those who can, time to write their own battle plan.

    The idea behind this is that instead of being caught with brain freeze and acting as a spectator when the FOMC Chairwoman announces the committee’s decision but instead acting proactively and with a clear purpose.

    That is not to say that the trading of the Federal Reserve news can be easy if planned. Such major events come with them massive amounts of volatility, gaps in the market and thin price conditions which make it difficult to execute any type of trading plan.

    Managing the risk of trading the FOMC has always been a difficult undertaking however on this occasion where the uncertainty is at extreme levels the skill factor increases.

    If one understands these risks what are the possible scenarios to look out for.

    One and done
    If the FOMC was to increase interest rates by 25 basis points but indicate that no further movement for Federal Funds is planned. The possible scenario could result in the US Dollar to spiking higher and then promptly reversing.

    Federal Funds on hold for now
    If the FOMC as is expected by many does not increase in September but does not rule out action taken before the end of 2015. The possible scenario could result in a rapid drop in the value of the US Dollar which is followed by a bounce and a strong appreciation.

    No increase and no guidance
    Highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve does or says nothing but Janet Yellen could decide not to increase interest rates and give no indication with regards to future policy. This possible scenario could possibly result in an unchecked and multiple days declines in the value of the US Dollar.

    Hike and more
    This scenario would probably spook the market and, therefore, is not expected to happen. In this case, the FOMC increases rates and gives guidance that further increases are on the way in 2015. This possible scenario would send the US Dollar on a multiple day rally and US stocks lower.

    Of all the scenarios, I would expect that the FOMC chooses “Federal Funds on Hold for now” with a possibility that they take the “One and done” option.

    The other two scenarios will either spook the markets or cause uncertainty. As the FOMC wishes to promote stability in the markets I do not see them choosing the two latter options. However. There is always room for a surprise.


    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1455

    Target 2: 1.1250

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.1280




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5520

    Target 2: 1.5330

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.5470


    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.40

    Target 2: 119.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.19

    Daily control level: 120.80



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9775

    Target 2: 0.9585

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.9720



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3370

    Target 2: 1.3130

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

    Daily control level: 1.3220



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7220

    Target 2: 0.7045

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7060



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1120.00

    Target 2: 1096.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.92

    Daily control level: 1103.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 47.00

    Target 2: 42.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.73

    Daily control level: 46.40



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  10. #460

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.09.2015




    With the United States on a course to end a six-year period were the benchmark Federal Funds interest rate is effectively at near zero levels, there is now a growing global concern that the FOMC’s action could have a potentially devastating effect on the Emerging Market nations.

    The Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee are expected by many to cap a period of growth and better data for the United States economy by increasing interest rates by 10 to 25 basis points.

    The FOMC has been spurred into action by an improvement in the employment picture with both the Non-Farm Payroll and Average Earnings data underscoring the strength in the US job market.

    However with inflation data out this afternoon the Federal Reserve may want to see the Consumer Price Index data shrug off the effects of chronically low energy prices.

    The World Bank in its aptly named report “The coming US interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth sailing or stormy waters?” was released to be perfectly timed just before the FOMC is to deliberate and come to a decision. The World Bank report has voiced concerns that a move increase interest rates could cause major economic fallout for Emerging Market economies.

    However, the World Bank did go on to say in its report that due the very long lead up time to the US interest rate decision and due to the expected shallow slope any tightening cycle may take, that the Emerging Market economies could work through this new interest rate environment without major consequences.

    The World Bank did point to some dark clouds with concerns that Emerging Market nations who are excessively exposed to foreign denominated debt could suffer difficult times with falls in living standards and economic contraction during the period when the United States begins to normalize the low-interest rates environment.

    Will the FOMC take heed of the World Banks concerns? For sure the Federal Reserve will try to mitigate risks if an interest rate hike could cause economic fallout in the Emerging Markets and China. However, the FOMC has also got to look after its own house and if this means raising interest rates is necessary to correct possible future imbalances in the domestic economy then it will act.

    As for tomorrow, my feeling is that the FOMC can and will hold off for now but give further guidance which prepares the ground for a rate increase in December or early in 2016.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1365

    Target 2: 1.1170

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.3000



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5440

    Target 2: 1.5245

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.5450


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.55

    Target 2: 119.25

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14

    Daily control level: 120.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9830

    Target 2: 0.9650

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.9670




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3355

    Target 2: 1.3140

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 1.3220


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7230

    Target 2: 0.7055

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.7080



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1117.00

    Target 2: 1093.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.57

    Daily control level: 1103.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.50

    Target 2: 43.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.54

    Daily control level: 44.30



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