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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #461

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.09.2015




    We have finally made it to Thursday. As most of you should know, today the United States Federal Reserve will announce their long-awaited interest rate decision. Will they or won’t they pull the trigger and begin a path of Federal Funds Rate normalization.

    We have for best part of a decade lived through a period of extraordinarily low interest rates. In these times when global interest rates have been close to zero levels, this era of cheap money has boosted equity markets and fed ballooning Emerging Market economies who have gorged themselves on cheap US Dollar denominated credit.

    The prudent have during these artificial times of plenty have done what they can to get their houses in order with austerity being the rallying cry coming from the Westminster Parliament in London and from the corridors of the Bundestag in Berlin.

    There has been a great deal of wealth creation during this artificially low-interest rate environment. One only needs to look at the creation of wealth in the London housing market which has allowed modest property owners to amass a great deal of wealth without breaking a sweat while others had taken the opportunity to deleverage and pay back debt in anticipation of the end of the easy times.

    Summer never lasts forever. The decision makers in the Central Banks and Governments have had seven years since the events that sent Lehman’s into bankruptcy to reform the global financial system. The decision to embark on a massive Quantitative Easing program when the financial crisis began did offer some solutions, however, the Emerging Markets have now become a global economic headache and Greece is still a financial basket case.

    The FOMC, however, has to put to one side the problems in the Emerging Markets and act in the interest of the United States economy. The recent US jobs data has been good, however, yesterday inflation data was weak.

    Will the FOMC ignore the weak CPI numbers and pull the trigger now? I think not, however, the reason for this possible reticence to lift off is not due to the recent data but more to do with the Emerging Market story.

    The consensus amongst market watchers is that only some 25% believe that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates today. There is a greater probability that the FOMC will wait until October. The Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen could wait until December, but this will once again leave her a hostage to data with event cycles for October, November, and December having to be allowed for.

    The Fed, however, could confound the markets and raise rates this evening. If this was to happen it is very much a case of the message that is given to the markets. Will a rate rise be a “one and done” strategy or will the Fed signal that it is going to embark on a long cycle of interest rate increases. A more rational policy could be to increase rates and give a message of “wait and see”.

    If the FOMC does not increase rates this evening, then of course the Fed statement is of paramount importance. Will the FOMC give specific forward guidance on when a rate increase will happen in the future? I very much doubt that Janet Yellen would be so accommodating, however, a message from the Fed that it is ready to move should be enough for the market to absorb this news and work through the short-term volatility.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1385

    Target 2: 1.1195

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 1.1210


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5590

    Target 2: 1.5385

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.5325


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.65

    Target 2: 119.45

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11

    Daily control level: 120.10




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9800

    Target 2: 0.9620

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.9760




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3275

    Target 2: 1.3065

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.3250


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7255

    Target 2: 0.0.7085

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7080




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1131.00

    Target 2: 1107.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 11.93

    Daily control level: 1103.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 50.00

    Target 2: 45.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.44

    Daily control level: 44.30





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  2. #462

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.09.2015



    Last night the United States Federal Reserve announced that it would be keeping its benchmark Federal Funds target interest rate on hold at 0.25%.

    The decision not to move and increase rates at the September meeting was not a surprise, however, the dovishness of the ensuing press release and briefing was not expected.

    Only Jeffrey Lacker of the Reserve Bank of Richmond being the only member of the committee to urge for a rate increase now. However the FOMC chairwoman did try to downplay the strength of the dovish sentiment by saying that the majority view of the committee members was that a rate increase is on the table and could happen before the end of 2015.

    This brings me to a comment that Janet Yellen made which sums up the Federal Reserve’s thinking on the pending interest rate cycle when the chair of the FOMC chair told the assembled media that “at the end of the day, it’s all about the data”.

    The Federal Reserve has two main mandates. These being to look after employment and inflation. With the unemployment numbers continuing to move in the right direction and with better recent data for both average earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls, the jobs picture although not completely rosy is at least no longer a paramount concern.

    Furthermore with business confidence positive and the housing market now recovering the policy makers can now point to more positive signs for the United States economy.

    So with the US economy seemingly performing well and much better than its competitors in Europe and Asia it is easy to see why Jeffrey Lacker would want to increase interest rates now.

    The reason why the majority in the Federal Reserve decided to come down against pulling the trigger and increasing interest rates now was the continuing concerns over inflation. Only on Wednesday we had abysmal inflation data with the month on month CPI number posting a negative -0.1%.

    With inflation now a long way from its 2% target the FOMC now has to deal with recent events that have affected China and other Emerging Market economies. The FOMC now has concerns that the slowdown in China combined with a strong US Dollar will have the effect of importing lower prices into the domestic economy.

    The global economic uncertainty is also compounded by what is happening in Europe with the European Central Bank recently cutting its inflation target. The concerns in Frankfurt are so evident that the ECB president Mr. Mario Draghi will have real worries that deflation could take a grip of the Euro area.

    The great unknown is of course China. What will be the effect of this country’s economic slowdown and financial crisis have on the global economy? This is the first major economic crisis that China has experienced since this country moved to a more open and capitalistic economy. China has grown rapidly and overtaken the likes of Germany and Japan to become the second-largest global economy. Therefore what happens in China can no longer be ignored.

    The effects of globalization and the interconnectivity of global economies now make the task of the FOMC and its committee members all that much harder. The FOMC has now been transformed from being the central bank of the United States to the central banker to the world with Janet Yellen sitting on a very uncomfortable throne.

    Back to the press conference and what we can take from it is that the big news was that there was no news with Janet Yellen reiterating that the FOMC policy decision making is sensitive to data. The chairwoman also went on to say that if data improves that the FOMC will move and increase the Federal Funds target rate. Janet Yellen also went on to say that if the data does not improve that the FOMC will not move.

    The interpretation of this is that Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the FOMC are not sensitive to data but are actually hostages to data. Furthermore the decision to be indecisive has given the FOMC some leeway as this means FOMC is not tied to a calendar.

    It also means that the markets have to beware of a possibility of the FOMC deciding to move on rates in October or December if the picture improves. However, the reticence and dovishness of the FOMC would mean that we would need to see an awful lot of improvement in both the inflation and global economic picture for this to happen. A rate increase before December does not seem likely.

    So we now have another month of waiting. Just like a patient waiting for the nurse in fear of pulling off the plaster, the markets, especially in Asia and Brazil will be feeling some relief that the FOMC did not move. However, there is also a sense of urgency which is pushing the Federal Reserve to do the deed and go for an increase.

    To be sure, there is going to be lots more volatility and a wild ride for all global markets.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1535

    Target 2: 1.1335

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.1210



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5695

    Target 2: 1.5480

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.5485





    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.50

    Target 2: 118.85

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.16

    Daily control level: 121.00




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9695

    Target 2: 0.9505

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 0.9725





    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3280

    Target 2: 1.3080

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.3205



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7260

    Target 2: 0.7085

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7140




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1143.00

    Target 2: 1118.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.63

    Daily control level: 1115.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 49.00

    Target 2: 45.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.11

    Daily control level: 46.70



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  3. #463

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.09.2015




    On Sunday, the Greek voting public once again elected the SYRIZA party, led by its charismatic leader Mr. Alexis Tsipras back into power. However with a record low turnout of some 50% the sense of voter fatigue and frustration is all too evident.

    It was only a few months ago that the Greek public was requested to vote in a referendum on the European Union designed austerity programme. Although Greeks backed Prime Minister Tsipras call to oppose Brussels this exercise of the democratic process was ignored. The decision to ignore the vote and sign off a very harsh austerity programme was taken by no other than Alexis Tsipras.

    That Alexis Tsipras was able to galvanize enough support for his SYRIZA party to be re-elected back into power after it had mishandled the negotiations with the European Union is a testimony to the lack of respect the Greek public have for the traditional and establishment back PASOK and New Democracy political parties.

    The support for SYRIZA was not overwhelming as it is doubtful that it will win enough seats to gain an absolute Parliamentary majority. It is expected that SYRIZA will take 145 of 300 seats in the Greek Parliament. However, the nationalist Independent Greeks that are led by Panos Kammenos has pledged to support SYRIZA with some 10 seats. The combined SYRIZA / Independent Greek coalition will, therefore, have 305 seats which is sufficient for the formation of a majority Government.

    With a second election victory in as little as 9 months under his belt, Alexis Tsipras can now push ahead with reforming the Greek economy. Alexis Tsipras has gone from a staunch adversary to Brussels inspired austerity to being it’s unlikely and some may say unwilling champion of austerity.

    This election result was a victory for stability with Greek voters realizing that although their cause to be just and their personal pain real that there was no alternative. It was either reform within the European Area or leave the Euro. This was a price most Greeks were unwilling to pay.

    Alexis Tsipras armed with a new mandate can now tackled structural issues that were created during decades of mismanagement under previous New Democracy and PASOK administrations. The hope of many is that Alexis Tsipras can sweep away the corrupt practices of the past and take Greece into a new era of economic growth and correct governance.

    The tasks are many, but Tsipras has time on his side. The implementation of reforms to the state sector and pensions is urgent. Furthermore, there is a need for long-delayed privatization programme to move ahead.

    I hope and wish that Alexis Tsipras is both bold and lucky over the next few years. However, most of all I hope that Alexis Tsipras embraces the moment and takes this once in a lifetime opportunity to reform Greece for the good of all its citizens.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1385

    Target 2: 1.1180

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.1460





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5630

    Target 2: 1.5415

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 1.5660



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.20

    Target 2: 119.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.09

    Daily control level: 119.70







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9750

    Target 2: 0.9550

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 0.9725




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3340

    Target 2: 1.3125

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.3010




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7270

    Target 2: 0.7095

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7140



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1151.00

    Target 2: 1126.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.62

    Daily control level: 1115.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 47.00

    Target 2: 43.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 47.17

    Daily control level: 47.50



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  4. #464

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.09.2015



    Septembers Federal Reserve meeting and the press conference has passed with a whimper. An overly dovish Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee surprised the markets by the tone and wording of that accompanied their decision to keep interest rates at the <0.25% target.

    According the FOMC’s calendar, the schedule has two more meetings for that will happen this year. The first meeting takes place on October 27 – 28 and the second on December 15 -16.

    What should we expect from these meetings? In my previous post, I said that Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the FOMC are data sensitive. The two main current influences on the Federal Reserve decision-making process being the inflation outlook and the economic slowdown that is taking a hold off China and other Emerging Market nations.
    However, the FOMC chairwoman did say that a decision to increase rates was still on the table. As soon as the conditions merited that action was required.

    We have some five weeks of economic activity to be absorbed and deliberated before the next FOMC meeting takes place. Is it really possibly that a financial and economic slowdown that has persistently continued to worry global decision makers will abate over the next few weeks?

    Will we see by October 28, improvements in the inflation outlook and Emerging Markets that are sufficient to give the FOMC committee members enough confidence to pull the trigger and hike interest rates? It is doubtful that the data will change that much even by the December meeting.

    The markets are now stuck within a spiral of uncertainty as they become increasingly unsure of the Federal Reserve’s intentions. Last Friday the Bank of England’s Chief Economists argued the merits of even cutting UK interest rates. The British economy is seen as the one that closely resembled that of the United States. If influential voices within the Bank of England and are openly discussing the possibility of cutting UK interest rates, then the same discussion will also be taking place with the walls of the Federal Reserve building.

    The possibility of an October or December lift off seems very unlikely. A move by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at one of the next two meetings could still happen. However, following the dovish position the FOMC has taken, such a decision would be out of step with their most recent statements.



    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1295

    Target 2: 1.1080

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.1330





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5620

    Target 2: 15400

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

    Daily control level: 1.5525




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.60

    Target 2: 119.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

    Daily control level: 119.70


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9800

    Target 2: 0.9620

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 0.9640



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3355

    Target 2: 1.3150

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.3175


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7150

    Target 2: 0.7040

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7280



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1145.00

    Target 2: 1120.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.54

    Daily control level: 1129.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 47.00

    Target 2: 43.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.88

    Daily control level: 47.25







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  5. #465

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.09.2015



    Many commentators and market professionals have commented that United States Federal Reserve decision not to increase rates was due to worries over inflation and the recent economic contraction in China.

    This morning we received further bad news from China when Markit released poor Caixin Flash Manufacturing numbers.

    A Flash PMI reading of above 50.0 would indicate that the economy is experiencing Industrial expansion. This morning’s numbers, however, continued to disappoint with the Flash Manufacturing PMI remaining stubbornly in a downtrend. Furthermore, this latest measure of industrial activity which was measured at 47.0 not only came in under the prior month’s number of 47.3 but also disappointed forecasters who had predicted a reading of 47.6.

    So with the Chinese economic contraction continuing to cloud the thoughts of the decision makers, across the Pacific Ocean in Washington, D.C, should the turmoil that is currently being faced by the Emerging Markets take centre stage as one of the key policy consideration together with the slow pace of inflation growth and the drop off in in commodity prices?

    There is, of course, another policy concern that although has been mention has taken a bit of a back seat to the Emerging Markets and low inflation environment story. That is the strength of the US Dollar which in recent months has now become an obstacle to the Federal Reserve acting on its policy goals.

    A US Dollar at the current price levels can have two major detrimental effects. First of all, US Dollar strength can have a negative impact on the competitive advantage of US exporters. The simple reason for this being that US goods become more expensive and, therefore, more difficult to export. The slowdown in US exports will also put a damper on economic growth and expansion in the industrial and service sector.

    The impact of the high US Dollar can be immediate as Europeans elect to stay on the continent rather than their take vacations in Florida and the Pacific West Coast. On the other hand, US consumers will take advantage of the cheaper Euro and British Pound and flock to Europe where they can spend their Dollars.

    The other impact a strong US Dollar can have on the US economy and therefore FOMC thinking is a fear that the 2% inflation target will not be reached in the foreseeable further. With commodity prices already at lows and with the cost of Chinese and European industrial products keenly priced the very idea that the Federal Reserve will embark on a cycle of interest rate rises will strengthen the US Dollar and further worsen an anaemic domestic inflation picture.

    This leads us back to the FOMC’s decision not to increase interest rates last week and the probability that Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee will play the same hand when they meet in October and December.

    With the Federal Reserve seemingly unwilling to hike interest rates in fear that a move too soon will choke off the US recovery, what will Mr. Mario Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank do to counteract the lack of action by the US Federal Reserve? We already had a response which is more monetary easing in the form of QE2 if it is required.

    With the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane only last week mentioning the possibility of a UK interest rate cut and with China also easing it would appear that the new normal of low-interest rates, low growth and low inflation is here to stay for some considerable time.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1220

    Target 2: 1.1015

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.1210





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5480

    Target 2: 1.5245

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.5525



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.20

    Target 2: 119.05

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.08

    Daily control level: 119.70




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9845

    Target 2: 0.9660

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.9705



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3355

    Target 2: 1.3150

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.3215



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7180

    Target 2: 0.7000

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.7160



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1136.00

    Target 2: 1111.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.80

    Daily control level: 1137.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 48.35

    Target 2: 45.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.78

    Daily control level: 47.25



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  6. #466

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.09.2015



    This morning at 9:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.

    This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.
    The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.

    Due to the size and breadth of this report the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.

    The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.

    Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.

    The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.

    The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight decrease to 107.8, as compared to the previous number of 108.3.

    A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.

    The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.

    As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly.

    Today’s Ifo release is even more relevant due to the recent news that broke, that the German global automotive giant, Volkswagen had manipulated data on US diesel car emissions.

    That a well-respected and much-loved brand such as Volkswagen had allowed its standards to slip has sent shock waves through the global automobile industry and dented consumer confidence and trust.

    Although the feedback thus far, is that this case of data manipulation is not an industry wide transgression, the fallout could have a detrimental effect on Brand Germany. We have already seen equity values in automakers tumbled across world stock markets. The timing of this news could not have been more inappropriate with global indices breaking down from technical bearish long term patterns.

    The Volkswagen Company, since its rebirth from the ruins of ashes of the Second World War, has been a champion of innovation and efforts to produce automobiles that are efficient and as non-polluting as possible to the environment. The very idea one of Europe’s industrial champions had misled its clients for sure is going to depress consumer confidence at the very time when the global economy is flat-lining.

    It is expected that the fines that will be imposed on the Volkswagen group will be large. The company has already set aside EUR 6.5 billion, but many expect that potential financial penalties could top USD 18 billion. However, what could be more costly is the reputational cost of this scandal. The Volkswagen Company now needs to work in overdrive to reassure the public that this will not happen again.

    Most of all, what is needed is an independent, consumer sponsored body that can independently test and verify vehicle emissions.




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1290

    Target 2: 1.1085

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.1210






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5365

    Target 2: 1.5130

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

    Daily control level: 1.5525


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.25

    Target 2: 119.25

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.02

    Daily control level: 119.70





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9890

    Target 2: 0.9710

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.9735


    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3415

    Target 2: 1.3225

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.3230



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7090

    Target 2: 0.6910

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7160



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1143.00

    Target 2: 1117.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76

    Daily control level: 1137.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 46.50

    Target 2: 43.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.86

    Daily control level: 47.25






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  7. #467

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.09.2015



    A little over a week ago, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen announced that the committee that she chairs had decided to keep the Fed Funds target rate at 0.25%

    In a statement and the following press briefing, the FOMC boss emphasized a rather dovish tone. There are now, only two more rate decisions dates left for 2015 that take place on October 27 – 28 and December 15 -16.

    With time seemingly running out, many traders, investors and other market participants are now expecting that there would be no move taken to increase the Fed Funds rate at the two up and coming meetings.

    There are now increasing concerns over the economic slowdown in China. This is compounded by a pessimistic picture developing in other emerging market nations with fears that a sharp contraction in Latin Americas biggest economy, Brazil will affect other countries in the region.

    There are also ongoing concerns with respect to the weak inflation picture with CPI data falling a long way short from its 2% target number. The anaemic inflation outlook is now compounded by the strong United States Dollar with the Green Backs strength now being a source of imported deflationary pressure as American business and industry are able to purchase foreign products and services at less expense.

    The strong US Dollar will also have an eventual effect on growth, especially if it continues to appreciate in value. The concern is now growing amongst US producers that their products are being priced out of the market and making it increasingly difficult to export to global markets.

    With so many factors stacked up against increase the Feds Fund rate before the end of 2015, it was understandable that the FOMC decided to hold back on an interest rate increase in September.

    However, last night during a very long speech that was given to the University of Massachusetts, Janet Yellen decided to reignite the debate on the merits of a 2015 interest rate increase. Stating that the future outlook for US economy “generally appear solid”, Yellen went on to say the FOMC was “on track” to increase interest rates.

    In contradictory statements, Janet Yellen during yesterday’s speech attempted to cover all her bases. On the one had the FOMC boss said of the current emerging market crisis that she and her fellow policymakers did not expect to significant impact on policy.

    At the same time, on the question of inflation and a potential slow increase in CPI data. Janet Yellen said, “should such a development occur, we would need to adjust the stance of policy in response”.

    From this viewpoint and as written in prior articles, if the time was not right to increase interest rates in September, why should the Federal Reserve take the next step and move in October or December. How much will really change during the last quarter to end a period of six years of historical low Federal Funds rates. Especially as such a move will cause the US Dollar to further strengthen and thus making US domestic production more uncompetitive.

    Last night’s speech was a case of Janet Yellen trying to reel in the dovish sentiment that followed the overly accommodating comments of last week’s FOMC announcement. This deliberate attempt of forward misguidance will, of course, keep the markets on edge for the next three months.



    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1340

    Target 2: 1.1120

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

    Daily control level: 1.1050






    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5360

    Target 2: 1.5125

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.01118

    Daily control level: 1.5525


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.00

    Target 2: 119.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03

    Daily control level: 120.55




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9850

    Target 2: 0.9650

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 0.9800


    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3400

    Target 2: 1.3200

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.3305




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7120

    Target 2: 0.6930

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.7160



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1165.00

    Target 2: 1137.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.14

    Daily control level: 1121.25



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 46.00

    Target 2: 43.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85

    Daily control level: 47.25


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  8. #468

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.10.2015


    According to Christine Lagarde, who heads the International Monetary Fund global growth for 2015 is unlikely to keep pace with the performance of 2014. Furthermore, the IMF president only expects a small pickup in global growth for next year.

    Mrs. Lagarde pointed to the slowdown in China as a major concern. However, the IMF boss in a passing shot across the bows of the United States Federal Reserve said that there is potential for a “vicious cycle” occurring due to the expectations that the Feds Fund rate will be increased by the end of the year.

    Lagarde spoke of her concerns over the global economy at the Council of the Americas. The World Bank and IMF are due to hold their annual meetings next week. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund is due to publish its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. There are now substantial fears that a move to a cycle of increasing interest rates would further damage the economies of Asia, Latin America and more specifically the Emerging Market nations of China and Brazil.

    Next week’s IMF and World Bank meetings will give those hoping the FOMC keeps a foot on the brake, the opportunity to push the debate towards keeping the Fed Funds rate at the present level.

    Christine Lagarde highlighted her fears by saying:

    “The good news is that we are seeing a modest pickup in advanced economies. The moderate recovery is strengthening in the euro Area; Japan is returning to positive growth, and activity remains robust in the US and the UK as well.”

    “The not-so-good news is that emerging economies are likely to see their fifth consecutive year of declining rates of growth.”

    “On the economic front, there is … reason to be concerned. The prospect of rising interest rates in the United States and China’s slowdown are contributing to uncertainty and higher market volatility.”

    “Rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar could reveal currency mismatches, leading to corporate defaults… and a vicious cycle between corporates, banks, and sovereigns.”

    The timing of Lagarde’s comments would have been carefully chosen. With the Federal Reserve due to meet on October 27 to 28, this incisive intervention was aimed to sow seeds of doubt in the minds of the FOMC boss Janet Yellen and her hawkish colleagues on the committee.


    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1280

    Target 2: 1.1060

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.1145




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5235

    Target 2: 1.5050

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.5215




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 120.75

    Target 2: 118.85

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98

    Daily control level: 119.50




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9820

    Target 2: 0.9840

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.9815




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3400

    Target 2: 1.3210

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.3455




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7100

    Target 2: 0.6930

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.6995




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1128.00

    Target 2: 1100.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 13.91

    Daily control level: 1134.65





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 47.00

    Target 2: 44.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.59

    Daily control level: 44.85






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  9. #469

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.10.2015




    It is once again upon us, the once a month Friday Job Report. The significance of today’s jobs numbers is great with the United States Federal Reserve due to give us their interest rate decision rate on October 27 – 28.

    The FOMC failed to increase the Fed Funds interest rate in September with the chairwoman of the committee, Janet Yellen citing concerns over weak inflation and the contraction in the global economy and more specifically the Emerging Market nations of China and more recently Brazil.

    Yesterday, the Department of Labor published a disappointing number which saw Unemployment Claims increase to 277,000. The market had expected an increase to 273,000, with the prior week’s number standing at 267,000.

    This afternoon Jobs Report, brought to us by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will include the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate and the headline Non-Farm Employment Change.

    Will the September report give the US Federal Reserve the confidence to begin its much-delayed agenda to normalize the interest rate environment? The forecast is predicting that the US job market to add 201,000 places for September. However, traders will also be looking at the August number to see if there will be an upward revision to the rather disappointing 173,000 data release.

    The forecast for Average hourly earnings is that the pace of expansion will drop from the prior months 0.3% to 0.2%. The Federal Reserve will be hoping for an uptick in this data will be a signal that wage inflation is healthy and expanding at manageable levels.

    The disappointing Unemployment Claims data was accompanied by an equally soft ISM manufacturing number. Although the market had predicted a decline from 51.1 to 50.8 the actual release was reported as 50.2. This brings the manufacturing sector close to levels of contraction.

    Yesterday was not all about disappointing data as the Total Vehicle Sales release of 18.2M beating expectations of 17.5M and the prior release of 17.8M. With the data being so mixed, the Federal Reserve will really need to see a Jobs Report that shows marked improvement and that is supported by substantial revisions to the August NFP data.

    The sentiment prior to today’s announcement points to the FOMC not taking any action on interest rates in 2015 with just 20% predicting a rise in October and 40% in December. With the members of the Federal Reserve leaning unconvincingly and without conviction towards an increase in 2015, today’s Jobs Report is going to give Janet Yellen and her team lots to think about.


    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1300

    Target 2: 1.1085

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 1.1145




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5240

    Target 2: 1.5015

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

    Daily control level: 1.5215




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 120.85

    Target 2: 118.90

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.95

    Daily control level: 119.50




    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9855

    Target 2: 0.9680

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.9815



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3365

    Target 2: 1.3165

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.3455




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7110

    Target 2: 0.6945

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.6995




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1127.00

    Target 2: 1099.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.21

    Daily control level: 1119.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 47.00

    Target 2: 44.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.66

    Daily control level: 44.85




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  10. #470

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.10.2015



    Friday’s dull afternoon was livened up considerably once the job data news was released. The data for the month of September reported that only 142,000 new jobs had been created. This report would have had the FOMC Chairwoman Janet Yellen scratching her head.

    The market had been expecting Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change data post 201,000 new positions filled. This news sent the equity markets rallying and the US Dollar crashing.

    In the further gloomy news, there was an expectation that the August release would be revised considerably higher. However much to the markets surprise, the revision was actually downwards with the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing that there was in fact 59,000 fewer jobs created for the months of July and August.

    There was also bad news on when it came to salaries with the Average Hourly Earnings number also missing expectation as it posted a decline to 0.0% versus market expectations of 0.2%.

    The only bright spot on the horizon was the Unemployment Rate data which was reported as remaining at a low 5.1% for the second month in succession.

    Friday’s jobs announcements round off a bad week for the US Labour market with Thursdays Unemployment Claims report that was released by the Department of Labor also disappointing the markets.

    The September Jobs Report caught many market participants off guard would have would have shocked Janet Yellen and her fellow committee members on the Federal Reserve. However, there is also an undercurrent developing that the FOMC had knowledge that something was not totally healthy with the jobs picture. This would go a long way to explaining the overly dovish September, Federal Reserve meeting.

    The main consequence of this stunning news has now seen the market price has pushed out the timing of an interest rate increase out to March 2016. Will the FOMC now still go ahead an increase interest rates in 2015? October now looks well and truly looks off the table. December could still happen but we now only have two months of data left for the Federal Reserve to consider. This means that there needs to be a rapid improvement in the data if the Federal Reserve is to act on interest rates this year.

    With some much uncertainty surrounding the United States and global economy and with US jobs numbers looking extremely soft the obvious course of action the Federal Reserve to take is do nothing in 2015 as it increasingly appears that now is not the time to increase interest rates.

    Furthermore, although market expectations should not dictate Federal Reserve policy, the pricing-in, of an interest rise for March 2016 would seem logical, as it gives Janet Yellen and her colleagues more data points to consider before they decide to increase interest rates.





    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1335

    Target 2: 1.1100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

    Daily control level: 1.1145



    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5305

    Target 2: 1.5075

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

    Daily control level: 1.5105




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5305

    Target 2: 1.5075

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

    Daily control level: 1.5105



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9800

    Target 2: 0.9610

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.9795



    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3255

    Target 2: 1.3040

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.3250



    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7135

    Target 2: 0.6970

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.7000




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1154.00

    Target 2: 1121.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.40

    Daily control level: 1104.00



    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.00

    Target 2: 44.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.72

    Daily control level: 44.20





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