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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #471

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.10.2015




    The Reserve Bank of Australia this morning hosted its monthly policy meeting. The outcome of the meeting was the decision by the RBA to keep its benchmark cash rate on at 2% for the sixth straight month in succession.

    This inaction was widely expected, especially as last month’s decision by the United States Federal Reserve to keep their own Fed Funds rate on hold was reinforced by a very soft Jobs Report which took many market participants and commentators by surprise.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia now has a window of opportunity to be patient whilst it gauges the effect of its recent policy of monetary easing. Especially as it seems unlikely that a US rate hike will not happen during the FOMC’s October or December meetings with the markets now pricing in an initial rate increase for March 2016.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia, in its statement, cited internal factors as being a key reason why the central bank declined to choose a path of further easing by pointed to a better than expected economic outlook.

    There will further news from other central banks tomorrow. The trading day starts early on Wednesday with the Bank of Japan issuing its monthly Bank of Japan Report.
    This is followed by news from London when we expect to see no change to the Official Bank Rate which currently stands at 0.50%.

    However, traders and investors will be anxious to see if there is a shift in the prior month’s committee member bias. In September, the dovish sentiment won the day with the vote strongly in favour in keeping the rates unchanged with a majority of 8 to 1.

    The way the members vote is not the whole story. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Statement should give us an insight on the current strength or weakness in the dovish bias. Furthermore, the markets will be looking for any references to the United States and more specifically, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and last week’s poor Jobs Report.






    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1295

    Target 2: 1.1065

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

    Daily control level: 1.1145





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5250

    Target 2: 1.5030

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5105




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.45

    Target 2: 119.45

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99

    Daily control level: 118.65




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9845

    Target 2: 0.9660

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.9795




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3190

    Target 2: 1.2975

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.3250




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7165

    Target 2: 0.6970

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7050



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1150.00

    Target 2: 1120.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61

    Daily control level: 1129.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.00

    Target 2: 45.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

    Daily control level: 44.20




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  2. #472

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    MARKET BRIEFING Ė LONDON OPEN 06.10.2015




    The Reserve Bank of Australia this morning hosted its monthly policy meeting. The outcome of the meeting was the decision by the RBA to keep its benchmark cash rate on at 2% for the sixth straight month in succession.

    This inaction was widely expected, especially as last monthís decision by the United States Federal Reserve to keep their own Fed Funds rate on hold was reinforced by a very soft Jobs Report which took many market participants and commentators by surprise.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia now has a window of opportunity to be patient whilst it gauges the effect of its recent policy of monetary easing. Especially as it seems unlikely that a US rate hike will not happen during the FOMCís October or December meetings with the markets now pricing in an initial rate increase for March 2016.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia, in its statement, cited internal factors as being a key reason why the central bank declined to choose a path of further easing by pointed to a better than expected economic outlook.

    There will further news from other central banks tomorrow. The trading day starts early on Wednesday with the Bank of Japan issuing its monthly Bank of Japan Report.
    This is followed by news from London when we expect to see no change to the Official Bank Rate which currently stands at 0.50%.

    However, traders and investors will be anxious to see if there is a shift in the prior monthís committee member bias. In September, the dovish sentiment won the day with the vote strongly in favour in keeping the rates unchanged with a majority of 8 to 1.

    The way the members vote is not the whole story. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Statement should give us an insight on the current strength or weakness in the dovish bias. Furthermore, the markets will be looking for any references to the United States and more specifically, the Federal Reserveís stance on interest rates and last weekís poor Jobs Report.






    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1295

    Target 2: 1.1065

    Projected range in ATRís: 0.0116

    Daily control level: 1.1145





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5250

    Target 2: 1.5030

    Projected range in ATRís: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5105




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.45

    Target 2: 119.45

    Projected range in ATRís: 0.99

    Daily control level: 118.65




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9845

    Target 2: 0.9660

    Projected range in ATRís: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.9795




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3190

    Target 2: 1.2975

    Projected range in ATRís: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.3250




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7165

    Target 2: 0.6970

    Projected range in ATRís: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7050



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1150.00

    Target 2: 1120.00

    Projected range in ATRís: 15.61

    Daily control level: 1129.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.00

    Target 2: 45.00

    Projected range in ATRís: 0.0070

    Daily control level: 44.20




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  3. #473

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.10.2015



    As many have expected the International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast for this year. The IMF has reduced its forecast by 0.2% from 3.3% to 3.1%. Furthermore, the IMF has also cut it’s estimated for 2016 from 3.8% to 3.6%.

    These amendments to World growth were included in the IMF’s latest report in which it reiterate its pessimistic view on the global economy by saying “A return to robust and synchronized global expansion remains elusive”.

    The IMF pointed to key areas of concern which it believed could play a significant part in stunting future growth.

    Geopolitical risk
    High on the agenda is the recent escalation of tensions in Syria and the Russian intervention to support the Government in Damascus.

    The fears of escalating Geopolitical tensions and concerns that the fluid and unstable situations in Ukraine, Middle East and Africa could cause major uncertainty and further polarize the conflicting interests.

    The Turkish Government has now gone as far as to hand out to its Russian counterpart a stiff warning. This followed Russian Airforce fighter incursion into Turkish airspace. The prospect of a NATO nation engaging the Russian military on the Syrian border is a worrying scenario and will do little to calm market volatility.

    Lower oil and commodity prices
    The IMF also mentioned bleak commodity picture which has done much to weaken, Russia, Australia, Nigeria and has led to belt-tightening in the Middle East. The decline in the price of Oil has in recent weeks stopped with Light Sweet Crude now trading back up to the US Dollar 50.00 per barrel.

    Potential for a sharper than expected Chinese slowdown
    The Chinese Government has a policy goal to evolve the nation’s economy from one that is an investment based to one that of a developed consumption profile.

    The concern is that the Chinese economic metamorphosis is not managed correctly. This could lead to a larger than expected economic contraction. The prospect of the Chinese Government losing control of its tightly run economy could have unforeseen circumstances not just for China but the global economy. Furthermore, any over-correction could take a long time to fix. Therefore, China watchers will be hoping that any transition takes place with a soft economic landing.

    Greece
    Although Greece is no longer in the international headlines, the problems that this country faces are immense. The Greek people recently voted back into power a SYRIZA-led coalition with the Prime Minister, Mr. Alexis Tsipras being the unlikely poster boy of European austerity. The Greek issue has not been solved. The can has just been kicked down the road until the next crisis happens.

    Emerging Markets
    Some but not all of the Emerging Markets have been caught in the eye of a hurricane. This is due to a debt-fuelled binge, a strong US Dollar and a fall in commodity prices. The markets had expected that the United States Federal Reserve was going to increase interest rates in September. However, the decision to keep rates on hold and following the worse than expected jobs report, some of the pressure on Emerging Market economies has been lifted. That the FOMC has now included the risk of international conditions as a key area of concern should give the likes of Brazil and Malaysia some hope in the medium term.




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1380

    Target 2: 1.1600

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.1170


    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5330

    Target 2: 1.5120

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.5135


    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.50

    Target 2: 119.25

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.96

    Daily control level: 118.70


    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9755

    Target 2: 0.9570

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

    Daily control level: 0.9765


    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3140

    Target 2: 1.2930

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.3135


    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7245

    Target 2: 0.7085

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.7050




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1162.00

    Target 2: 1131.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.52

    Daily control level: 1129.60




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 51.00

    Target 2: 47.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80

    Daily control level: 46.00




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  4. #474

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.10.2015





    A few months ago there was a strong possibility that the Bank of England Governor would be the first amongst his peers to increase interest rates.

    However, with the FOMC Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaking in an overly dovish tone during the September Federal Reserve meeting, the window of opportunity for a Bank of England interest rate nominalization has diminished considerably.

    If we now add to the equation, a very poor recent United States Jobs Report and a heightened degree of uncertainty emanating from the Federal Reserve, over their intentions, the task of the Bank of England’s Governor, Mr. Mark Carney has become a more difficult one to say the least.

    Not so long ago, the markets had expected the Federal Reserve to make their move and increase US interest rates by the end of 2015. However, with so much changing in recent weeks, the markets have now pushed back the timing of the first rate increase to March 2016.

    In the United Kingdom, traders and investors have taken their cue from what is happening across the pond in the United States. With the Bank of England’s, 2% inflation target not expected to be reached by the back end of 2016 the markets have now pushed back the timing of the initial move to happen by late 2016 or early 2017.

    Market have not always been very good at predicting interest rates. What is certain is that the Bank of England will not move today and increase the Official Bank Rate from its present 0.5% level. Such a surprise move would be a seismic shock to the markets. The Bank of England is not in the business of delivering shocks as its main policy goal is to ensure price stability.

    If one was to discount the possibility of the Bank of England moving on interest rates before the Federal Reserve, what are the factors we need to consider?

    From a hawkish, perspective let’s consider the following. The UK labour market metrics, it can be argued are now calling for an interest rate rise to happen ahead of the inflation curve. Furthermore, it should be considered that the current low levels of Consumer Price Index data is a product of low energy prices. If we consider that the current low level of demand for energy and its oversupply to the market is supposed to be a temporary condition, then the current level of inflation is also transitory. Once energy prices move back up to what are seen as prior normal levels, then it can be argued that CPI data will move in step and reach the 2% inflation target that is required by the Bank of England.

    There is also a very strong dovish counter argument. The question is where will inflation come from. Commodity prices are still depressed and the Labour market is improving but one would not say that wage inflation has expanded to unmanageable levels.

    The call for Mark Carney and his counterpart at the FOMC, Janet Yellen is this. Can they trust the trend in the data sufficiently to make a call on future inflation? This is a very difficult task for all Central Banks as they need to effectively aim at a moving target which is a product of data that is not yet available. A case in point being the extremely bad US jobs data that was released prior to the end of October FOMC meeting.

    The current level of inflation and the data that produced this result are known. The question is, can Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, with a degree accuracy time their move to ensure that both overtly expansive inflation is avoided whilst at the same time a premature action does not take place which cripples the fragile growth that the UK economy has enjoyed recently.



    EURUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1340

    Target 2: 1.1135

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.1210





    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5415

    Target 2: 1.5215

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.5135



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 120.85

    Target 2: 119.15

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.88

    Daily control level: 119.75




    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9515

    Target 2: 0.9650

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.9765



    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3140

    Target 2: 1.2930

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.3135



    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7280

    Target 2: 0.7125

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

    Daily control level: 0.7050



    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1160.50

    Target 2: 1130.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.28

    Daily control level: 1129.50



    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 50.00

    Target 2: 47.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.73

    Daily control level: 46.00






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  5. #475

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.10.2015



    The latest release of Federal Reserve minutes told us that the members of the committee were, on the whole, confident that the United States economy could bear the cost of an interest rate rise in the latter part of 2015. This was despite the fact that the deteriorating Jobs Report that followed the FOMC meeting gave the markets little confidence that domestic economic conditions are improving.

    The FOMC chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee viewed it “prudent” to keep the Fed Funds interest rates at the <0.25 target. The Federal Reserve continued to be a hostage to data with the policy decision makers looking for confirmation that the United States economy is on the path of sustainable growth and that inflation would reach the 2% target which is deemed by the majority of Central Banks as normal healthy.

    The FOMC has now according to the minutes highlighted the risks of a continued contraction in China and the Emerging Market nations. There is a fear being that US Dollar would strengthen further as it is fuelled my higher US interest rates. The stronger US Dollar would have the effect of harming the competitiveness of exporters and in turn further depress the domestic growth outlook.

    It now looks unlikely that the FOMC will move on interest rates in October. Furthermore, a December Fed Funds interest rate increase is now become more and more a distant possibility with the markets over the past week pricing in a move in happening in March 2016.

    Confidence and confirmation are now quickly becoming the new Federal Reserve catch phrases. The use of this language by the FOMC only highlights the indecisive mood that has now gripped the committee. The minutes of the Fed meeting told a story of the Doves on one side, deciding to sit on the fence in fear of acting prematurely and the Hawks on the other side, arguing the case of an interest rise so as to avert inflationary pressures causing unwanted consequences.

    The consequence of the current Federal Reserve failure to act leads to a growing view that FOMC policy is diverging from tight constraints of monitoring inflation and the labour market. Federal Reserve policy has morphed since Janet Yellen took up its leadership. We now have a Federal Reserve that takes into consideration every possible crisis, be it Greece, China, the Emerging Markets and then fails to act.

    The fear of pulling the plaster will create a belief that the Federal Reserve will never act because the conditions will never be perfect for a rate increase. The FOMC needs to grasp the bull by the horns. The conditions will never be optimal for a rate increase as there will always be another crisis around the corner. The Federal Reserve should act on interest rates once the metrics on jobs and inflation tell them that conditions or more or less met.




    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1375

    Target 2: 1.1175

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.1235


    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5450

    Target 2: 1.5240

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.5260


    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 120.75

    Target 2: 119.10

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

    Daily control level: 120.10



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9735

    Target 2: 0.9560

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.9740


    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3115

    Target 2: 1.2915

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.3075


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7340

    Target 2: 0.7180

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.7160


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7340

    Target 2: 0.7180

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.7160


    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 51.00

    Target 2: 48.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

    Daily control level: 48.00










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  6. #476

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.10.2015




    The annual Columbus Day holiday is once again upon us which means it’s a Bank holiday in the United States. With citizens of Japan and Canada also enjoying bank holidays, trading is typically erratic and low in liquidity.

    Away from the celebrations, three of Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s colleagues on the committee will be giving speeches. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Mr. Dennis Lockhart will be addressing the Association for University Business and Economic Research’s Fall Conference, in Orlando on the subject that is of greatest concern to policymakers and the markets. This being his view on the United States economic outlook.

    Later in the day, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Mr. Charles Evans will address the 49th World Steel Association and this is followed by the Federal Reserve Governor, Mrs. Lael Brainard, will be speaking at the National Association for Business Economics, in Washington on the subject of the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.
    With so many of her colleagues speaking about the economy the state of the US economy, the Columbus Day holiday will no doubt give the FOMC Chairwoman the time to contemplate the economic outlook.

    With the October rate decision soon to be upon us there is a small possibility that the Federal Reserve will decide to increase interest rates. However, the Bank of England Governor, Mr. Mark Carney has expressed his viewed that a move on interest rates is not contingent on the Federal Reserve acting first. Carney expresses this view last Thursday when he said.

    “The exact timing of the Fed move is not decisive for the timing of the move by the Bank of England”.

    A much more hawkish view on interest rates, was expressed by a former Bank of England, Mr. Andrew Sentence when he said that Central Banks are giving too much significance to areas of concern that are short term in nature such as the current low price of Crude Oil.
    Mr. Sentence went on to say,

    “We have independent central banks because they are meant to be courageous, they are meant to try and get ahead of the curve, they are meant to do things that politicians might find difficult and they don’t seem to behaving in that way at the moment”.

    With a more aggressive tone coming from both former and current Bank of England policymakers, it might be for the Janet Yellen to ditch her prudent attitude on interest rates and take the plunge.




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1460

    Target 2: 1.1260

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.1235




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5410

    Target 2: 1.5215

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.5260


    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.00

    Target 2: 119.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81

    Daily control level: 119.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9735

    Target 2: 0.9560

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.9740



    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3060

    Target 2: 1.2680

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.2990



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7400

    Target 2: 0.7230

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7300




    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1172.00

    Target 2: 1139.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.45

    Daily control level: 1136.50



    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 52.00

    Target 2: 48.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.78

    Daily control level: 48.00




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  7. #477

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.10.2015



    Today, two of the biggest economies within the European Union are to release significant data. From the United Kingdom, we will have the latest inflation data and from the Euro Zones industrial engine, Germany we will have sentiment data which will be published after the damaging Volkswagen scandal has come to light.

    UK CPI release

    The action begins early this morning at 9:30 am London time, when the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers.

    The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate.

    The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance.

    The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011 when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further.The data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to remain near zero in the near future.

    The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows the UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extent prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone.

    The recent hawkish comments on interest rates emanating from both current and past Bank of England officials has helped the British Pound appreciate over the past 5 trading sessions. This bullish feel to the Pound has continued into this morning. If a pickup in inflation is reported today the potential for an acceleration in the buying of the Pound should not be ruled out.



    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1455

    Target 2: 1.1260

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.1345


    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5410

    Target 2: 1.5215

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.5300



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 120.80

    Target 2: 119.25

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.78

    Daily control level: 119.60



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9715

    Target 2: 0.9540

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.9595



    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3095

    Target 2: 1.2895

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.2900



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7440

    Target 2: 0.7280

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.7300



    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1179.00

    Target 2: 1146.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.57

    Daily control level: 1136.50




    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 49.00

    Target 2: 46.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

    Daily control level: 50.55




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  8. #478

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.10.2015


    According to data published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics, inflation dropped below zero. Although not a huge shock, the latest Consumer Price Index reports that inflation now stands at -0.1. This latest report places CPI data well below the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This would imply that the Governor of the Bank England, Mr. Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee are now further away than ever in increasing the benchmark rate of interest.

    For the ordinary person on the street of London and the rest of the United Kingdom, the drop off in inflation is not actually bad news. Deflation, however, is for many an economist is a nasty word. One only need to look at Japan which has suffered from deflation for over a decade.

    However, the similarities between the Japanese and the United Kingdom’s economy are few and far between. The big difference being that of public debt, with the Japanese economy struggling to cope under a mountain off borrowings that equates to over 200% of GDP. The UK, on the other hand, has a much more manageable debt burden which is just under 90% of the country’s GDP.

    Back in April of this year, inflation dropped beneath zero, however, since then, the level of CPI has hovered around 0.00%. This is not bad news for the average British citizen as this means that the cost of living has not risen. Additionally, average earnings in the UK have also risen and this has had the effect on making the majority of those in paid employment richer.

    Prices in the UK have been pushed lower. The reason for this is due to the drop-off in the price of commodities such as Iron Ore, Copper and Tin. Furthermore, the glut in Crude Oil supply has also led to the cost of fuel and energy prices falling.

    The well-publicized supermarket wars have also meant that the average price for the grocery basket is now lower than a year ago. The fall in food prices has coincided with the appreciation in the British Pound which has driven down the cost of food imports. A seasonal factor behind the decrease in food prices is due to good weather conditions creating an abundant supply of cheap food products.

    With inflation flat lining, the pressure is now off the Bank of England to increase interest rates. The Bank of England’s is now predicting that inflation will reach 1% by the spring of 2016. It does seem a little optimistic that in a little under half a year that inflation will pick up by over 1%. Especially as news this morning out of the Far East, from the National Bureau of Statistics, indicated that Chinese CPI missed expectations by dropping to 1.6%




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1470

    Target 2: 1.1284

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 1.1355



    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5345

    Target 2: 1.5150

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.5385



    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 120.45

    Target 2: 119.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74

    Daily control level: 120.35



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9660

    Target 2: 0.9495

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 0.9645



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3135

    Target 2: 1.2940

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.2900





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7325

    Target 2: 0.7160

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.7380



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1189.45

    Target 2: 1157.15

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.69

    Daily control level: 1136.50



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 49.00

    Target 2: 45.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.84

    Daily control level: 50.55







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  9. #479

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.10.2015






    The countdown to the October 27-28 Federal Reserve Meeting has begun. However, for those in the FOMC who wanted to see an uptick in the United States economy, the data continues to be depressing.

    Yesterday afternoon’s economic data from across the Atlantic missed both the market and analyst expectations by a wide mark with both the retail and PPI numbers reporting much lower than expected.

    With respect consumer spending, the Core Retail Sales was expected to report a contraction to -0.1% but in reality the actual that was released was published as -0.3%. The Retail Sales number which also includes automobiles, the expectation that there would be an increase to 0.2%, however, the report published by the Census Bureau indicated that consumer spending had only increased by 0.1%.

    The news data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics with regards to the PPI was much worse. The Core Producer Price Index which excludes, food, energy and trade was expected to be reported as a small increase to 0.1%, however, the release was reported as a very disappointing -0.3%. The PPI number was no better with the expected decline to -0.2% being obliterated by an actual of -0.5%.

    The Federal Reserve will be hoping that it will have better news data this afternoon on both the jobs and inflation front with the weekly Unemployment Claims and both the CPI and Core CPI data.

    The case for increasing interest rates this year, continues to wane and now seems impossible that we will see a hike in October and improbable that the FOMC moves in December. This view has been reinforced by two Federal Reserve Governors urging patience with respect to the timing of the first rate increase.

    The Governors in question being Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo. Brainard on Tuesday even went as far to say that the risk of moving prematurely was greater than the risk delaying the first increase.

    With the Federal Reserve unable to find a consensus on the timing of an interest rate increase it would surmise to say the markets views of pricing in of a rate increase in Q2 of 2016 would make good sense.




    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1565

    Target 2: 1.1380

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 1.1355


    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5585

    Target 2: 1.5370

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5200



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 119.55

    Target 2: 118.10

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74

    Daily control level: 120.35




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9675

    Target 2: 0.9405

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.9645




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3040

    Target 2: 1.2830

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.2900


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7380

    Target 2: 0.7210

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7380




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1200.00

    Target 2: 1167.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.40

    Daily control level: 1163.00




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 49.00

    Target 2: 48.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80

    Daily control level: 48.85







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  10. #480

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.10.2015




    Wednesday’s rather disappointing US, Retail Sales, and PPI numbers had the effect of sending the US Dollar lower as traders and investors priced out the possibility of the Federal Reserve increasing its Fed Funds interest rate at the October or December meetings.

    Although the possibility of an October decision to increase interest rates remains highly unlikely, yesterday’s inflation and jobs data increased the prospect of Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee moving on rates in December.
    According to data released on Thursday, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, as expected, reached -0.2%. However, there was positive news with respect to Core CPI number which excludes Food and Energy, increased to 0.2%.

    On the job front, the Department of Labor published some very positive news with Unemployment Claims dropping to 255,000. The prior number stood 262,000 and the market had expected an increase to 262,000.

    The positive news on the inflation and job front had the effect of reversing the previous bearish sentiment for the US Dollar. Traders from just one afternoon of positive data realigned themselves to the possibility that a December rate hike had increased.
    The American economy is, of course, monitored and discussed more than any other major developed market. The last two days market data only goes to highlight the importance of the finances of this nation.

    Even though interest rates have remained at record lows for a very long time, growth in the US economy has failed to take off. A rise in interest rates is, of course, inevitable and many analysts and market participants are pushing for this to happen now so that the US economy can get over what has become a psychological barrier.

    The United States, very much like the Japanese and European Union economies has changed over the past twenty or so years. Technological has not only transformed how we work but also changed what we produce. Demographics are also having a huge impact with populations becoming older combined with a falling unemployment rate, the need to have such rigid targets for inflation, growth, and employment now look redundant.

    There does seem from the outside a degree of excessive resistance by the FOMC in increasing interest rates. Many have said that the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen has become a hostage to the data and is unable to act. However, the responsibility in the hands of the FOMC is, however, enormous. Not only must the decision makers take the correct action but also more importantly, avoid taking the wrong action.

    If interest rates are prematurely raised in December, the shock to the market and the real economy will be tangible if the FOMC then has to reverse its decision, as was the case of Sweden, Norway and Canada where a hawkish stance on interest rates had to be abandoned due to a deteriorating domestic economy.

    The understandably cautious stance taken by the FOMC continues to point to an interest rate increase in the spring of 2016. That is unless wage inflation begins to increase excessively.





    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1480

    Target 2: 1.1290

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.1355



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5560

    Target 2: 1.5340

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.5200



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 119.65

    Target 2: 118.15

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.76

    Daily control level: 120.35


    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9580

    Target 2: 0.9415

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 0.9645



    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.2965

    Target 2: 1.2825

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.2950


    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7415

    Target 2: 0.7235

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7365


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1198.00

    Target 2: 1165.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.36

    Daily control level: 1163.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 49.00

    Target 2: 45.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.82

    Daily control level: 45.75


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