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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #491

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.11.2015



    Since the lows of August, the Exxon Mobil Corporation has seen its stock value rally off the lows it touched back in the summer.

    In August, Exxon Mobil traded down to the US$ 66.50 area, however, this morning after what was a strong Monday trading, has seen this company’s stock value move above US$ 85.00.

    The Exxon Mobil Corporation is public traded on the New York Stock Exchange as is a key component of the Dow 30.

    Being the fifth largest company in terms of revenue and the third largest company in terms of market capitalization, the Exxon Mobil Corporation is seen as an important bellwether on the health of the United States equity market, the petrol chemicals sector and the Crude Oil market.

    Following Friday’s better than expected third quarter earnings release the value of Exxon Mobil’s share price has experienced a large increase.

    Furthermore, the rally that Exxon Mobil has experienced since August has seen the price action from a technical aspect put in place certain key indications which could imply that a significant low has created for the price of this stock.

    As Exxon Mobil is such a dominant player in the petroleum sector, a reversal of sentiment from bearish to bullish could also indicate that the downtrend in the value of both WTI and Brent may be coming to an end.

    The price action during the month of October has been significant in that Exxon Mobil has seen its share price accelerate higher as if it was a hot knife through butter as it slashed through is 50 and 100-period simple moving averages.

    Of greater significance as that the price action has now broken through the key 200 periods daily moving average. As the 200-period moving average is used as an indicator by longer term investors to ascertain if an instrument is in bull or bear territory the breach of this average during yesterday’s trading would have been noted with interest.

    Of further significance was that the share price of Exxon mobile was able to breach and close above the downtrend line that has defined the bearish trend that began back in July of 2014.

    Finally, the share price of Exxon Mobil has been able to break above all key Fibonacci levels with little sign of resistance. A continuation of the move higher could see the May 5 high of US$ 90.07 being tested.

    A breach of the US$90.07 level is important as it would turn the very long term weekly cycle from a technical perspective from down to up.

    If we switch to a chart of OILUSD, the trend continues to point in a downward direction. However, the repeated breaches of the downtrend line could potentially indicate that base is being formed.

    However, confirmation is required and this will be given if OILUSD can trade above its 200 periods daily SMA and the prior swing high of October 8 at the US$ 51.30 level.
    We also have a similar scenario for Brent. In this case, there does seem to be a concerted effort to stay above the now broken downtrend line.

    To end, the price action for Exxon Mobil is giving us clues on the future direction of price action for both WTI and Brent. However, we do need to see some follow-through in terms of price action confirmation before we can say with any certainty that a solid floor has been put in place







    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1105

    Target 2: 1.0920

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.1075




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5495

    Target 2: 1.5325

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 1.5240



    USDJPY






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.55

    Target 2: 119.95

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81

    Daily control level: 120.25



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9935

    Target 2: 0.9780

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

    Daily control level: 0.9890




    USDCAD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3200

    Target 2: 1.2985

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

    Daily control level: 1.3115



    AUDUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7215

    Target 2: 0.7065

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

    Daily control level: 0.7100





    GOLD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1146.00

    Target 2: 1120.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 13.31

    Daily control level: 1150.00





    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 48.00

    Target 2: 45.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.42

    Daily control level: 45.85







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  2. #492

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.11.2015




    Yesterday in Frankfurt during an event that celebrated the European Cultural Day, the European Central Bank President, Mr. Mario Draghi gave the clearest indication yet that he and his colleagues on the Governing Council could launch an expanded stimulus programme as early as next month.

    ECB President Draghi told reporters “Even though domestic demand remains resilient, concerns over growth prospects in emerging markets and other external factors are creating downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation.”

    Draghi went on to add “In this context, the degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at the Governing Council’s December meeting.”

    “The Governing Council is willing and able to act by using all the instruments available within its mandate if warranted in order to maintain an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation.”

    His comments at what was meant to be a fairly low-key event is a clear sign that the European Central Bank is going to act in December.

    The question of timing is of course as always key. As had happened in September, the next key meeting for the ECB will take place before the United States Federal Reserve announces their next move.

    With the possibility of the FOMC deciding in increased rates in December, is it really necessary for the ECB to act so soon?

    If the Fed hikes, this will be a stimulus in itself and have a greater effect than the ECB expanding its own QE programme.

    However, Mario Draghi does not have the luxury that allows him to second guess the outcome of the FOMC meeting. The ECB may, therefore, move anyway and increase stimulus independently of any FOMC decision.

    The ECB indicated that they have many options to explore and implement.

    These include:

    A cut in the deposit rate.
    A faster pace of asset purchases.
    Expand what can be purchased.


    All these measures will, of course, have the effect of weakening the euro which will help support growth by expanding exports. Furthermore, the cheaper Euro will also act as a tool that increases inflation through imports.






    EURUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1045

    Target 2: 1.0865

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 1.0500





    GBPUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5500

    Target 2: 1.5335

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 1.5445




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.80

    Target 2: 120.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.79

    Daily control level: 120.60





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9950

    Target 2: 0.9850

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

    Daily control level: 0.9835




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3170

    Target 2: 1.2950

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

    Daily control level: 1.3165




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7255

    Target 2: 0.7115

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

    Daily control level: 0.7110




    GOLD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1131.00

    Target 2: 1103.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 13.78

    Daily control level: 1138.55





    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 49.75

    Target 2: 46.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

    Daily control level: 46.65







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  3. #493

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.11.2015




    During yesterday’s afternoon testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington D.C, the Federal Reserve chairwoman laid out the case for an increase in the Federal Funds rate taking place on December 15-16.

    In an interesting debate, Mr. Brad Sherman who is affiliated to the Democratic Party and a member of the United States House of Representatives for the state of California championed the need for delaying a rate increase until the Spring of 2016.

    However, the line Mr. Sherman took was a somewhat unorthodox line as he called on the guidance of a higher authority in the form of God.

    Sherman said. “God’s plan is that things rise in the spring, and so if you want to be good with the Almighty, you might want to delay until May.”

    Yellen’s, however, ignored for calls of divine intervention by saying. “What the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labour market and to return inflation to our 2% percent target over the medium term. If the incoming information supports that expectation then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility”.

    Although Mr. Sherman’s comments might seem as an interesting sideshow to the real debate that is now taking place over the timing of the first interest-rate increase, the comments expressed by this politician does in some way highlight the divisions in opinion that is currently gripping the financial markets and to some extent the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee.

    Janet Yellen is, of course, trying to prepare the ground for a rate increase. In itself, a more hawkish tone that was adopted yesterday will cushion the blow when rates do eventually increase.

    The market is currently pricing a 50 / 50 coin toss chance that the FOMC will increase rates in December. However, we do have a lot a data to come before the committee members have to make their decision.

    If we see an improvement in data then the possibility of a rate increase will be enhanced. We will get out first clues tomorrow afternoon when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the latest job numbers with the Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings as always being of paramount importance.









    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0960

    Target 2: 1.0770

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.1050




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5470

    Target 2: 1.5250

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 1.5445




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 122.30

    Target 2: 120.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.76

    Daily control level: 120.60





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.000

    Target 2: 0.9850

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

    Daily control level: 0.9800



    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3265

    Target 2: 1.3030

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

    Daily control level: 1.3050



    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7215

    Target 2: 0.7100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

    Daily control level: 0.7110



    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1121.00

    Target 2: 1093.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.15

    Daily control level: 1138.55



    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 48.65

    Target 2: 45.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53

    Daily control level: 48.85












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  4. #494

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.11.2015



    Yesterday lunch time the Bank of England announced that they would keep their Official Bank Rate on hold at 0.50%.

    The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee in favour of not moving to increase interest rates from the current levels was in line with expectations.

    The official voting for the Bank Rate of 1-0-8 was also in line with expectations. The lone dissenter on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee was once again Ian McCafferty.

    Mr. McCafferty argued in favour of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points from 0.50% that they have stood at since March 2009 to 0.75%.

    However, what did surprise the markets, was both the Bank of England Inflation Report and the subsequent press conference which conveyed a message that was extremely doveish.

    The Bank of England released some forecasts and revisions which were more or less in line with previous releases.

    The Bank of England, however, did emphasize downside risk to inflation and assumed an interest rate of only 0.8% in early 2017. This is due to concerns surrounding global growth.

    This is in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve which removed external country factors which have been identified in China, the Emerging Markets and closer to home in the Euro-Area.

    This news sent traders long of the British Pound looking for cover as Cable crashed and EURGBP rallied.

    Until recently, many commentators argued for and some expected the Bank of England to move on interest rates before Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the FOMC took action of their own.

    However, the doveish surprise that was delivered yesterday has seemingly ended this scenario. With the Federal Reserve poised to increase its own Fed Funds interest rate, the divergence between the British and United States interest rate forward forecasts has become very apparent.

    This divergence between the United States and United Kingdom interest rate expectations if confirmed by a December lift off by the FOMC has the potential to drive down Cable to levels below 1.5000.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0975

    Target 2: 1.0790

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.1050




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5300

    Target 2: 1.5100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.5400




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 122.50

    Target 2: 121.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.78

    Daily control level: 120.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0000

    Target 2: 0.9865

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

    Daily control level: 0.9880




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3275

    Target 2: 1.3060

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 1.3140



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7215

    Target 2: 0.7070

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

    Daily control level: 0.7125



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1118.00

    Target 2: 1090.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.26

    Daily control level: 1111.00



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 47.60

    Target 2: 44.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.51

    Daily control level: 47.20







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  5. #495

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.11.2015



    Friday’s stunning United States Jobs Report saw both the Average Earning and Non-Farm Payrolls numbers catch many traders. This latest news has greatly increased the odds of the US Federal Reserve moving on rates at this coming December meeting.

    Unless the December Jobs Report turns out to be a complete disaster, many market participants now expect that the FOMC Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, and her colleagues will increase the Fed Funds rate by 25 bp.

    The certainty that such an event will happen has highlighted the growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and its counterpart across the globe which are either increasing stimulus or being extremely reticence in indicating when rates will increase.
    The contrast is so obvious across the Atlantic in London. Mark Carney, the Bank of England Governor only last week was very clear in his views that the UK was somewhat far away from moving on interest rates.

    Not so long ago, there was much discussion on the Bank of England moving on rates before the US Federal Reserve. However, it is now very obvious that the Bank of England will take a patient line and allow the US to move ahead on rates before any move on tightening is made.

    Last week’s events reinforce the view that the US greenback, despite the huge debt burden of the Federal Government will continue to be the world’s reserve currency of choice and that the US Federal Reserve is the leading central bank.

    Time will tell if another currency can claim the US Dollar’s Crowne, but it would appear that this possibility is many economic cycles away.





    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0835

    Target 2: 1.0620

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.0900


    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5160

    Target 2: 1.4940

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5400



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.10

    Target 2: 122.45

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86

    Daily control level: 120.60



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0130

    Target 2: 0.9965

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.9880



    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3415

    Target 2: 1.3190

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114

    Daily control level: 1.3140




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7200

    Target 2: 0.6950

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

    Daily control level: 0.7170



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1104.00

    Target 2: 1074.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.05

    Daily control level: 1111.00



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 46.60

    Target 2: 43.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

    Daily control level: 46.35







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  6. #496

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.11.2015



    The Organisation for Co-operation and Development in its latest update for Global GDP has cut its forecast from 3.0% to 2.9%.

    The OECD has also raised fears that the slowdown in growth is now pushing the international economy close to levels which would signal a global recession.

    China was highlighted as a main reason behind the drop off in GDP as it sighted that reduction in demand for imported commodities was affecting neighbouring Asian nations.

    However, the OECD sounded more optimistic for 2016 and 2017 as it predicted a pickup in growth.

    The OECD identified that stimulus measures were taken by China and other countries as the main reason why it predicted that there would be a bounce next year.

    The OECD decided to add its say on the debate with respect to United States interest rates and called upon the Federal Reserve to go ahead with its expected increase in the Fed Funds rate this coming December.

    A move to increase the US benchmark interest rate by 25 bp would be the first step in nominalizing the interest rate environment.

    A December move by the FOMC would come at a time when there are real signs that the United States economic recovery is taking off.

    These signs of positive growth were highlighted last Friday when the US Department of Labor Statistics published extremely strong Jobs Report with both the Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings releases beating estimates by a wide margin.






    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0850

    Target 2: 1.0640

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.0900





    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5220

    Target 2: 1.5005

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

    Daily control level: 1.5400



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 124.00

    Target 2: 122.25

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.88

    Daily control level: 120.60





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0150

    Target 2: 0.9950

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 0.9880




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3390

    Target 2: 1.3180

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.3140




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7115

    Target 2: 0.6970

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

    Daily control level: 0.7170




    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1106.00

    Target 2: 1077.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.28

    Daily control level: 1111.00




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 46.00

    Target 2: 43.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

    Daily control level: 45.95







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  7. #497

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.11.2015



    China has announced that it wants to enhance the international profile of its currency the Yuan. It plans to do this by upgrading the status of its currency by having the Chinese Yuan included into the basket of currencies that make up the International Monetary Fund, Foreign Exchange Reserve Assets.

    The IMF Reserve Assets, also known as the Special Drawing Rights was created in 1969 and initially included the US Dollar, British Pound, French Franc, German Deutschmark and Japanese Yen. However with the launch of the single European currency, both the German and French participations were replaced by the Euro.

    The SDR is not a currency, however, it is an important tool used by the IMF so as to help maintain global macroeconomic stability. The SDR can be used for instance during times when liquidity and credit in the market dry up such as the case of the 2008 crisis.

    Apart from the obvious kudos for China that comes with becoming a component part of the IMF’s, SDR basket, there is also another factor why the second largest global economy would like to be a member of this very exclusive club.

    China for some time has strived to reform its economy and evolve it from being the factory of the planet to become a modern global economy with a lower but a more sustainable growth model.

    It is, therefore, a fairly obvious requirement that one of the world’s most important economies becomes a member of this foreign exchange based stability mechanism.

    As the IMF carries out a review every five years and with the next review due to take place, China sees it vital to its interest that it is currency joins the SDR basket.

    Although such a move would be very much symbolic due to the restrictive nature of the current Chinses financial system, it will be however a step towards normalizing China’s economy and bring it in line with the other developed nations.

    There are risks if other members, most notably the United States blocks Chinese entry into the IMF SDR programme. Such a move could antagonise the Chinese political establishment who will see this as an embarrassing slap in the face.

    A rejection by the IMF could, therefore, see the Chinese Government decide to go it alone and chart their own course with other partners such as Russia and Brazil.

    If, however, the Yuan is accepted into the SDR basket, the Chinese Government will have to show concrete willingness to allow the Yuan to move freely and in line with market forces








    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0820

    Target 2: 1.0630

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.0790





    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5220

    Target 2: 1.5015

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.5090





    USDJPY






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.95

    Target 2: 122.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

    Daily control level: 123.43





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0130

    Target 2: 0.9985

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

    Daily control level: 1.0018






    USDCAD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3375

    Target 2: 1.3170

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.3295



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7100

    Target 2: 0.6950

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

    Daily control level: 0.7014





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1104.00

    Target 2: 1075.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.54

    Daily control level: 1096.00





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 46.00

    Target 2: 43.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

    Daily control level: 45.95









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  8. #498

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.11.2015




    Overnight news from Australia propelled the Aussie Dollar higher. The 90 pip rise in AUDUSD was due to a set of very strong employment numbers.

    The strength of the incoming data has resulted in the Australian Dollar reaching the upper level of today’s expected true range at the 0.7135 level.

    This price level coincides with strong overhead resistance that is formed by a prior, multi-decade broken uptrend line.

    With the price action consolidating between strong overhead resistance and the 0.7135 level, it could be expected that AUDUSD trends down to sideways in a corrective fashion.
    This morning’s news release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics included the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate numbers.

    The Employment Change release measures the change in the numbers those employed during the previous month.

    The prior release was negative -0.8K and the market expected to see a slight improvement to 14.8K. However, the actual release smashed estimates by posting a hefty 58.6K.

    The Unemployment Rate continued to fall and now stands below the 6% level. The market had expected to see a release of 6.2% which would have meant it was in line with the prior months data. However, the actual number beat predictions and was reported as 5.9%.

    The creation of employment is an extremely important leading indicator as the salaries are a driver for consumer spending.

    As consumer spending is by far the largest component of all economic activity, signs that a positive trend exists in labour creation can be used as a barometer that measures the health of the economy.

    What happens in Australia also has wider implications for the global economy. The Australian economy is tied closely to the fortunes of China. This is due to the high volume of exports, especially of commodities that Australia sends to China.

    Therefore, a pick up in the Australian economy could be used as a leading indicator to what happens in the world’s second-largest economy.

    Furthermore, with both the United States Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney identifying external risks as a reason to hold back on interest rate increases, the news that one of the world’s largest commodity exporting nations is experiencing improving economic conditions will not go unnoticed.







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0830

    Target 2: 1.0650

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

    Daily control level: 1.0704




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5300

    Target 2: 1.5100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.5090




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.60

    Target 2: 122.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.77

    Daily control level: 123.43




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0115

    Target 2: 0.9970

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

    Daily control level: 1.0018





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3350

    Target 2: 1.3165

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.3295



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7135

    Target 2: 0.6985

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

    Daily control level: 0.7014




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1099.00

    Target 2: 1072.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 13.67

    Daily control level: 1096.00





    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 46.50

    Target 2: 42.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

    Daily control level: 45.25






    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

  9. #499

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.11.2015





    This morning, the two heavyweights of the Euro-Area, Germany and France had economic growth news published.

    Destatis and INSEE announced preliminary GDP numbers for the third quarter for Germany and France respectively.

    German GDP declined in Q3 after having experienced a moderate bounce in Q2. The published data of 0.3% was in line with market expectations but less than the 0.4% of Q2.
    In contrast, the French GDP number was much more positive with the actual of 0.3% being line with market expectations and above Q2’s prior release of 0.0%. It was however not a totally positive picture with the current level of French quarterly GDP being half of the high watermark level of 0.6% for May of this year.

    The latest GDP numbers giving the European Central Bank President, Mr Mario Draghi little in the way of comfort. It would now appear that European policymakers are inching ever closer to the inevitable of increasing stimulus with the aim to boost the Euro-Zones sluggish economic recovery.

    Draghi reiterated previous statements on Thursday when he saying the ECB was ready to review the current stimulus programme in December.

    The ECB President’s very dovish stance was highlighted when he said that “The option of doing nothing would go against price stability.”

    Draghi went further in saying that “From today’s perspective, this suggests that a sustained normalisation of inflation could take longer than we anticipated in March when we first appraised the overall impact of our measures. We have always said that our purchases would run beyond end-September 2016 in case we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Other instruments could also be activated to strengthen the impact of the purchase programme if necessary.”

    Draghi’s comments initially sent the Euro lower, however buyers did come into the market around the 1.0700 area.

    The move off the lows has resulted in the price action trading higher as it forms a series of higher lows and higher highs.

    However, with the obvious divergence in US Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy, it would not be difficult to imagine that any rally in the Euro could be short lived.










    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0910

    Target 2: 1.07150

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.0690





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5330

    Target 2: 1.5125

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.5170




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.30

    Target 2: 121.85

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.75

    Daily control level: 123.06



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0050

    Target 2: 0.9925

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

    Daily control level: 1.0083





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3385

    Target 2: 1.3190

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.3222



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7195

    Target 2: 0.7055

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

    Daily control level: 0.7085




    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1098.00

    Target 2: 1069.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.37

    Daily control level: 1094.00






    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 44.00

    Target 2: 41.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57

    Daily control level: 45.25






    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

  10. #500

    Default

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.11.2015








    Overnight, the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government published Preliminary Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers.

    Unfortunately, the data that was presented for the third biggest global economy was extremely disappointing.

    The markets had expected a GDP number of -0.1%, however, the actual release when it was announced stood at -0.2%.

    Last night’s negative GDP data is the second quarter in succession that the Japanese economy has contracted. From a technical standpoint, the Japanese economy has now entered into a recession.

    The sluggish GDP data will now put further pressure on the Shinzo Abe administration and the Bank of Japan to continue with a programme of economic stimulus and structural corrections.

    The Japanese Government has however tried to put a positive spin on the latest GDP Data with Akira Amari, who is the Economics Minister saying “While there are risks such as overseas developments, we expect the economy to head toward a moderate recovery thanks to the effect of various (stimulus) steps taken so far.”












    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0840

    Target 2: 1.0635

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.0830




    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5325

    Target 2: 1.5125

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.5186



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.5325

    Target 2: 1.5125

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.5186




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0135

    Target 2: 0.9985

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

    Daily control level: 0.99



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3395

    Target 2: 1.3205

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.3265




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7185

    Target 2: 0.7050

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

    Daily control level: 0.7085




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1104.00

    Target 2: 1074.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.12

    Daily control level: 1079.00




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 43.50

    Target 2: 40.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.63

    Daily control level: 43.40



    MORE ON ACFXblog.com

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