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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.12.2015



    As the year comes to a close, the markets await two monumental decisions. It is thought by many and priced into the market that the European Central Banks, Governing Council have already agreed upon an expansion of their already large Quantitative easing program.

    Whereas, across the North Atlantic in Washington, it is assumed that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has all but rubber-stamped a decision to increase interest rates for the first time in some 9 years.

    Back in the day, a central bank’s decision to increase or decrease interest rates although an important event never carried such significance, or was written about in such detail. However, in an era of globalization and an interconnected international economy, a decision to tighten or ease monetary policy has become very big news indeed.

    The decisions that will be taken over the next few weeks come after a deep recession that hit the global economy in 2008. Although stock markets around the world have recovered, anything other than a rally in the major indices would have expected with so much cheap and abundant money looking for somewhere to be parked.

    The United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England was quick to step in and boost their economic systems by embarking on substantial stimulus programmes. The European Central Bank, shackled by the German Government and Bundesbank only decided to initiate its own QE programme on January 22 of this year.

    The ECB President, Mr. Mario Draghi announce a few months back that the central bank would do what it takes to bring back growth to the sluggish European economy. This was an admission that all was not well with the ECB’s current programme of stimulus. It is now hard to believe that less than 12 months since the last European QE programme was announced that the markets are already pricing in QE2.

    The ECB is probably right to worry. It only needs to look to Japan. A country that has suffered a chronic and disastrous recession. The fear amongst the ECB governing council is that the plight of Japan could turn out to be the story of the Euro-Area.

    There are of course differences between the Japan and the Euro-Zone. Japan is a much smaller economy that is heavily focussed on manufacturing, whereas the Euro-Zone brings together a much more diverse economy.

    For a better comparison, we really need to look across to the United States. What becomes evident when one compares the US and Euro-Area is the how out of kilt the economic cycles are.

    Although a low inflation environment does continue to persist in the USA, there are signs that this picture is beginning to change. Furthermore, over the past few months there has been real signs that the US jobs market is beginning to show positive gains.

    By contrast, the Euro-Area has shown patchy employment growth and an anaemic inflation outlook. There is talk that the Euro-Area is some 24 to 36 months behind the United States. This is probably a correct assumption. However, the structural and political problems continue to persist in the Euro-Area.

    Although QE2 should eventually push the Euro-Area towards recovery, the main beneficiaries will be the core nations such as Germany, Netherlands, Austria and France. For the periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain the road back to recovery will continue to be a long and painful journey.











    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0680

    Target 2: 1.0540

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

    Daily control level: 1.0636




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5035

    Target 2: 1.4865

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 1.5125




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 123.80

    Target 2: 122.65

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.60

    Daily control level: 122.75





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0255

    Target 2: 1.0100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

    Daily control level: 1.0306




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3415

    Target 2: 1.3265

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

    Daily control level: 1.3406




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7375

    Target 2: 0.7240

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0067

    Daily control level: 0.7169



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1067.00

    Target 2: 1040.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.13

    Daily control level: 1075.00




    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 42.00

    Target 2: 39.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

    Daily control level: 42.60

  2. #512

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 04.12.2015










    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has retraced this morning, after the 450 pips move on Mario Draghi speech last afternoon.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0813 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1037, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1105, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0645, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0500, being the 2nd intermediate support and an important psychological level at the same time, could further take place.





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has surged higher yesterday amid the strengthening US Dollar.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5067 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.5231, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside projection level of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5321, which is with the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level, could likely take place.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5041, which is the pair’s today’s Average True Range downside target.





    USDJPY






    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.

    USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot support point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 121.89, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has declined sharply lower on the Mario Draghi speech yesterday.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0270 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9900, being the daily Average True Range downside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair will likely continue to trade towards 0.9779 next.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today is 1.0170. A further extension towards 1.0290 resistance, which is the Average True Range upside target of today, could follow next in this case.




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD continues to range for the second week.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3348 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3296, being the pair’s the pair’s 1st support of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3240 level.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3403, which is today’s pivot resistance level of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3431, being the daily Average True Range upside projection could then follow that move.





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD was not much affected by the yesterday’s markets volatility.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7327 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7271, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7248, being the 2nd pivot support line together with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7371, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold above 1057.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1069.40, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Further extension towards 1076.75, being the upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR), could occur next following that.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1057.79, which is the commodity’s pivot point of today. The commodity price then could further stretch towards 1050.30 level, which also coincides with the downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.




    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil is trading higher this morning after it reached a new three-month low on Wednesday.

    The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 42.76, which is the commodity’s first support level of today. . Should the trading break above this level, the next commodity’s target could be 43.51, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today which also coincides with of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.79, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.

  3. #513

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 07.12.2015







    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD continue to retrace from the Thursday’s highs when Mario Draghi speech became a disappointment to investors.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0890 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0768, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0703, which is 2nd pivot support of the pair, could take place next.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0890, being the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0973, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could further take place.





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD is consolidating, after a strong upmove on Thursday.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5000 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.5032, being today’s 2nd pivot support level of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5000, which is with today’s Average True Range downside projection level of the pair, could likely take place.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5048, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.

    USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.53, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is retesting 1.0030 resistance line, looking to recover the losses the pair made last Thursday.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.09969 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0070, being the daily Average True Range upside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0121 intermediate resistance next.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9970, being the pivot point of today. A further extension towards 0.9905 resistance, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support level, could follow next in this case.



    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is trading higher this morning, after the set of dissapointing Canadian economic data was published last Friday.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3364 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.3450, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3510, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3363, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3288, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.



    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD declined lower this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7331 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7267, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7251, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support line and coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7384, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.




    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold was among the top performers last Friday, as investors’ uncertainty regarding the forex main currency grows.

    The commodity needs to hold above 1077.43 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1096.84, which is also approximately coincides with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1107.88, being the pair’s second resistance point of today could likely take place next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1070.91, which is the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil continues to trade lower this morning as no action to reduce the oil production was the outcome of the Friday’s OPEC meeting.

    The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial downside target is 39.01, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.93, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.







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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08.12.2015












    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD is ranging, trying to define a further direction after last Thursday’s move.

    EURUSD needs to break below 1.0838 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0789, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0731, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could take place next.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0939, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD is heading lower after much lower than expected UK Manufacturing Production figure was published this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5070 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4953, being today’s 3rd pivot support level, which also coincides with Daily Average True Range downside projection level of the pair.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5070, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is retracing this morning.

    USDJPY needs to break above the 123.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 123.32, which is the pivot point of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.50, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.83, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.72, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is consolidating after last Thursday’s decline.

    USDCHF needs to breach above 1.0000 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0033, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0067, being the 2nd resistance level.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9927, being the 1st pivot support of today. A further extension towards 0.9900 level, which is the pair’s daily Average True Range downside projection level, could follow next in this case.





    USDCAD






    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has reached the eleven-year high this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3461 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.3584, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3620, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3461, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3412, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.







    AUDUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7287 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7190, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7149, being the 3rd pivot support line of today.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7287, being the pair’s pivot point level of today.







    GOLD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is retracing from the last Friday’s highs.

    The commodity needs to hold below 1074.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1062.82, which is the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1054.62, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could likely take place next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.72, which is the commodity’s upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil has declined to a six-year low this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold below 39.28 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 37.90, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 37.30, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.28, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.










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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.12.2015







    The European Central Banks decisions not to deliver on its promise of QE2 has created indecision in the minds of traders.

    Following the ECB’s lack of action, the market is now divided on the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision that takes place today.

    However, some websites are reporting that the forecast is that the Official Cash Rate will be cut by 25 basis points from 2.75% to 2.50%.

    A rate cut at this stage although significant, a failure by the RBNZ to follow through at this juncture would not put this story to bed.

    What is of equal importance is the wording of the forward guidance that is made available to the market.

    A dovish statement by the RBNZ will reinforce the negative bias for NZDUSD. Furthermore, the apparent policy divergence between the RNBZ and the United States Federal Reserve could further weaken the Kiwi over the short to medium term.

    From a technical perspective, there is a concern within the RBNZ that the New Zealand Dollar has shown recent signs of strength. The price action having put a bottom in place at the 0.6120 which coincides with an area of monthly Fibonacci support around the 61.8% retracement level that was generated from March 2009 low and August 2011 high.

    The move off the 61.8% Fibonacci level was sufficient enough to push NZDUSD through upward resistance as the price action broke through the upper slope of a downward channel that began in July 2014.

    With the price action having re-broken above the 100 periods daily moving average as NZDUSD attempts to put in place a higher high, higher low, higher high formation on the daily chart, the fear within the RBNZ is that with the Kiwi no perilously close to the 200 periods daily moving average.

    The opportunity now presents itself for a reinjection of some bearish news that will reinforce the dovish argument for NZDUSD and allow for this currency to once again depreciate, thus helping these country exporters to maintain their competitive advantage.

    In terms of timing and levels, we should see a pickup in downside momentum post the FOMC meeting on December 16. That is unless we get a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen.

    The key levels would be a bounce off the 200 SMA around the 0.6700 / 0.6750 area and confirmation of the bearish bias will occur if we see a breach of the most recent daily swing low at the 0.6425 and then followed by a break of the 0.6400 big figure.

    A more aggressive strategy would be to follow the downside momentum as the price action breaks key 4 and 1-hour support levels.







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0990

    Target 2: 1.0790

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 1.0950





    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5105

    Target 2: 1.4910

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.5160





    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.55

    Target 2: 122.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.62

    Daily control level: 123.50





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0020

    Target 2: 0.9825

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.0035





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3675

    Target 2: 1.3495

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 1.3315




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7285

    Target 2: 0.7140

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

    Daily control level: 0.7385




    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1089.00

    Target 2: 1060.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.94

    Daily control level: 1066.00




    OIL






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 40.00

    Target 2: 37.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.56

    Daily control level: 42.85









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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10.12.2015












    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD is retracing from 10-day high.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0981 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1084, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1130 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0918, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0817 support level.




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has reached a two-week high ahead of BOE Monetary Policy Statement this afternoon.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5124 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.5245, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5281, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could further take place.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5069, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range downside aim.




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has declined lower as investors interest in the Japanese Yen is increasing.

    USDJPY needs to hold below the 121.86 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 120.68, which is the 1st pivot support and also coincides the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.87, could likely take place.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.62, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 123.81, being the pair’s 2nd resistance level of today, could occur.






    USDCHF






    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has breached the downtrend channel this morning.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9864 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9725, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9933, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.







    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3570 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3486, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3418, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3625, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3670, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.







    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is trying to return to trade within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7332, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7385 could likely to be seen next following that.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7215, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold continue ranging in indecision after it surged higher last Friday.

    The commodity needs to hold above 1075.49 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial downside target is 1087.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1066.01, which is the 1st support level of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1056.60, being the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range, could take place next.





    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil is consolidating at the six-year this morning, with the likely attempt to retest these limits.

    The commodity needs to hold below 38.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 37.51, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 36.92, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.12, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.











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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.12.2015







    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD is trading within upward trending channel amid the US Dollar weakness ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0927 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1011, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1047 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0901, being the pair’s 1st suport level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0831, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the upward trending channel this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5156 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.5203, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5261, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5088, which is the pair’s 2nd intermediate support of today. Following that, the price could move to 1.5049, being the Daily Average True Range downside aim.




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.

    USDJPY needs to break below the 121.55 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 121.23, which is the 1st pivot support line of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 120.78, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.31. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.48, being the pair’s 3rd resistance level of today, could occur.





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached yesterday.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9870 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9810, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9767, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9975, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.





    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7278 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7204, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7165 could likely to be seen following that.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7278, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold declined lower this morning, bouncing off the newly formed downtrend channel.

    The commodity needs to hold below 1072.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1056.31, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1072.25, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, a move higher to 1075.27, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance point and coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel, could occur next.




    OIL






    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil has reached a new six-year low this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold below 38.11 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 36.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 38.50, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today






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  8. #518

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14.12.2015














    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has created a new lower high at the end of the last trading session.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0978 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0926, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0873 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1030, being the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.1095, which is the Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook


    GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5185 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.5122, being today’s 1st pivot support together with the Daily Average True Range upside projection level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5071, which is today’s 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5215 which is the pair’s 1st intermediate resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5246, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.







    USDJPY






    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.

    USDJPY needs to break above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 121.90, which being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 122.90, is the 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.21, which is the Daily Average True Range downside target of the pair. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.60, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.







    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached last Thursday.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9726 being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9944, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.





    USDCAD






    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.






    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has breached the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7279, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7317, being the 2nd resistance level of today could likely to be seen following.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7149, being the pair’s 1st support level of today.







    GOLD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold has bounced off the top of the newly created downtrend channel this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold below 1071.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1057.59, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1076.76, which is the 1st intermediate pivot point of the pair for today and also coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, a move higher to 1081.72, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level, could occur next.






    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil declines to the new lows this morning, the levels last seen since 2009.

    The commodity needs to hold below 37.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 36.06, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should that target be reached, a following move to 35.42, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could follow next.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.79, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.







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  9. #519

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.12.2015











    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD is slowing down ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0994 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1103, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1146, which is 3rd pivot resistance of the pair, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0940, being the pair’s 1st support level of today and also coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0881, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel yesterday, continuing with a move lower this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5158 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.5087, being today’s 1st pivot support. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5029, which is today’s 2nd pivot support together with the Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5210 which is the pair’s 1st resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5251, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.





    USDJPY






    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is consolidating at six-week low this morning.

    USDJPY needs to hold above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 121.47, which is the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 121.86, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target and also 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.45, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection of the pair. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.89, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.







    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF continue to consolidate, after it breached the downward channel last week.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 0.9885, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9950 being the daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9736, being the Average True Range downside projection of today.






    USDCAD






    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is retesting to return trading within the limits of the uptrend channel this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3573, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3782, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today and also coincides with the pair’s eleven-year high. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3831, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.







    AUDUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is returning to retest the top of the recently formed downtrend channel.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7226level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7287, being the 1st resistance level of today. An additional extend to 0.7323, the Average True Range upside projection of today, could likely to be seen following.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7176, being the pair’s 1st support level of today, which also approximately coincides with the Average True Range downside projection level.





    GOLD







    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold has shot higher this morning, after the metal once again reached two-week low in the overnight trade.

    The commodity needs to hold above 1065.28 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1072.00, which is the pairs 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this aim be reached, Gold could extend towards 1075.45, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1053.20, which is the 1st pivot support of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1046.49, being the commodity’s 2nd support level, could occur next.








    OIL






    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil is recovering this morning after it reached new 2009 lows during the previous trading session.

    The commodity needs to hold above 37.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 38.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should that target be reached, a move to 40.03, being the 3rd pivot resistance level could follow next.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.03, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.





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  10. #520

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.12.2015





    The most momentous United States interest rate decision in almost a decade is less than 12 hours away.

    It can be said with some justification that the Federal Reserve has communicated poorly its intentions to the markets and somewhat painted itself into a corner.

    It would now be an extraordinary reversal if the FOMC does not increase the Fed Funds rate this evening.

    Central Banks usually hike interest rates to cool off an overheating economy. However, although the US economy is showing positive signs the recovery has been patchy and does not encompass the whole country.

    Inflation is not really a problem at the moment. In fact, plunging commodity prices as seen by the continued fall in the value of crude oil over the past week could actually hold back the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target being met.

    We can add to this cocktail, the prospect of deflation being imported into the US economy. This is due to the current easing stance of both the Peoples Bank of China and the European Central Bank.

    For all of these reasons, one can understand why many analysts and even some members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee are questioning the merits of increasing interest rates today.

    The foreign exchange markets tell their own story with its recent appreciation of EURUSD coming to an abrupt halt.

    The markets have had time to digest the disappointing lack of action taken by the European Central Bank and its failure to increase as promised the stimulus to the Euro-Area’s flagging economy.

    With currency traders having worked through last ECB announcement, the apparent topping formation in EURUSD would appear to be a sign that the markets are assuming that we will see an increase in the Fed Funds interest rate by 25 basis points.

    A Fed Funds rate increase will only tell us half the story as there is real uncertainty over what shape the trajectory of future interest rate increases will look like in 2016.

    Therefore, what is important to glean from today’s statement is the pace of future interest rate increases.

    A dovish hike would see at the most two further rate hikes during 2016. Whereas a hawkish surprise could see as many as four rate hikes being announced by the FOMC during the course of next year.

    I doubt very much that the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen will be so kind to give the markets exact numbers tomorrow on the amount and frequency of interest rate decisions for 2016. However, I would hope that the tone of the announcement to give us some strong clues.

    I expect that this evening, the FOMC will give us a dovish hike. The reason for this is that the Federal Reserve is scared that it would be blamed that a hawkish surprise would derail the markets.

    An over hawkish message will see the US Dollar race higher as both bonds and equities will get crushed.

    The logical policy for the FOMC to take would raise interest rates a little now and then commit to tightening further as and when conditions allow it to do so.















    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1050

    Target 2: 1.0810

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

    Daily control level: 1.1060



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5155

    Target 2: 1.4920

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

    Daily control level: 1.5185




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 122.55

    Target 2: 120.75

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.91

    Daily control level: 120.55




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0020

    Target 2: 0.9800

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

    Daily control level: 0.9795




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3835

    Target 2: 1.3630

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.3780




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7275

    Target 2: 0.7100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.7285




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1077.00

    Target 2: 1044.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.12

    Daily control level: 1079.50




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 39.00

    Target 2: 36.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61

    Daily control level: 37.25








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