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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #521

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 18.12.2015







    EURUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.

    This morning, the EURUSD has bounced off the 1.0800 which coincided with a prior weekly pivot level.

    Although EURUSD did appreciate for most of the morning the rally could not be sustained and the price action threatens once again to test the 1.0800 during the New York session.

    If the 1.0800 level is breached, the initial downside target is 1.0700 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a bounce off the 1.0800 could see EURUSD test the 1.0900 resistance level and the 1.0950 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.1015 level. However due to the developing price action, a breach of the 1.0870 which is the most recent swing high would be sufficient to change the trend from down to up. Such a move would also signal a break of the current three-day downward sloping channel.





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.

    This morning, the GBPUSD has traded with a slight upward bias but has been unable to make a sustained break away from its opening range.

    If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.5000 level and then the 1.5025 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A breach of the 1.5015 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

    However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain high prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4900, 1.4850, 1.4800 and the 1.4775 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.







    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY, Thursday has experienced a volatile trade as the market digests conflicting news from the Bank of Japan.

    USDJPY initially attempted to break up from its opening range. However, this move could not be sustained as the rally fell short of the 123.55 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    The price action has subsequently traded lower as USDJPY broke down from its opening range and within a few hours breached both the 121.55 and 121.35 levels.

    As the latter level corresponds to today’s line of control the trend has change from up to down.

    However, after such an aggressive move lower the possibility of USDJPY experiencing a corrective bounce as traders square up positions and take profits before the commencement of the weekend should not be discounted.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF, Thursday had initially traded lower in a corrective fashion.

    However, subsequently, USDCHF has bounced off support and traded slightly higher.

    As the price action continues to be encompassed within a large up channel there is potential that USDCHF trades higher during the afternoon session.

    The initial upside target is the 1.0075 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a breach of the channel bottom and the 0.9915 line of control could see USDCHF attempt to test the 0.9845 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD, Thursday has traded sideways and within the opening range.

    However, over the past two hours, USDCAD has appreciated as the market awaits Canadian CPI and Wholesale Sales data.

    A continuation of the move higher could see USDCAD test the 1.4050 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see USDCAD test the 1.3825 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having bounced off the 0.7100 prior monthly pivot level.

    A continuation of the move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7220 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see AUDUSD test the 0.7100 and then the 0.7030 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having found support at the 1047.00 level,

    A continuation of the move higher could see Gold test the 1068.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see Gold test the 1035.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil, Thursday initially trade higher. However, during the past two hours, sellers have come back into the market.

    This has led to Oil breaking down from its opening range.

    A continuation of the move lower could see Oil test the 35.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the move lower could see Oil test the 37.15 level which corresponds to today’s line of control.











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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.12.2015



    Less than a year ago, Europe’s leaders were wondering how they would handle the fallout of a Greek general election result that brought to power a political party of the radical left.

    What followed was months of intrigue, failed negotiations, demonstrations on the streets of Athens as the Greek Syriza party led by its charismatic leader Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his trusted lieutenant in the shape of the combative, yet clear speaking Finance Minister, Mr Yianis Varoufakis battled but ultimately lost their battle with Germany’s iron lady, Chancellor Merkel.

    Fast forward to roughly a year and this morning we are trying to come to terms with a general election result that is both important for Spain but also Europe.

    According to published election result data, the ruling Partido Popular as expected took the largest share of the vote. However, PP, as it is also known no longer, commands enough elected members of the legislative assembly to allow it to form a majority Government.

    There will now follow a scramble to form a new coalition government. The Popular Party as the block with the highest share of the vote and the most members of parliament are going to argue that they should form the next government.

    This will be a difficult undertaking as both the new political newcomers, Podemos and Ciudadanos have campaigned on tickets of political renewal and would not want to be associated with past legacy of corruption that has so tainted Spanish politics. Furthermore, Podemos being a political party of the radical left would find it very difficult to share government with the Peoples Party.

    As for Ciudadanos, although it is a political party of the centre and middle classes a decision by its leader Albert Rivera would possibly be to shun forming an alliance with the centre-right PP out of fear that this will be seen as a sell out by the electorate who voted for his party.

    What the markets and the European Union fears the most is for a coalition of the left to be formed by the traditional socialist PSOE and Podemos. However, the university professor comes political leader Pablo Iglesias Turrion would seem to be a man who is unwilling to compromise his principals.

    So what is left is a coalition of the weakened establishment of PP and PSOE. Although this would seem a very unlikely solution, however, such a coalition of national unity was formed in Greece when the conservative New Democracy and the Socialist PASOK buried their differences so as to keep Syriza out of power.

    Such a coalition would maintain the establishment grip of Spanish politics and would be welcomed by both the European Union and the markets.
    Furthermore, it would be hoped that another term of a PP Government but in this case supported by the PSOE would give the new administration time to push the country back into solid economic and job growth. With Spain back on track, the popularity of Podemos and Ciudadanos would wane.










    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook


    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0980

    Target 2: 1.0725

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129

    Daily control level: 1.0800







    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5025

    Target 2: 1.4775

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126

    Daily control level: 1.4950






    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.30

    Target 2: 120.15

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.09

    Daily control level: 123.30




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0045

    Target 2: 0.9810

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 0.9795





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4050

    Target 2: 1.3815

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

    Daily control level: 1.3850




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7260

    Target 2: 0.7075

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

    Daily control level: 0.7100





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1082.00

    Target 2: 1049.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.63

    Daily control level: 1078.25




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 37.60

    Target 2: 34.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.67

    Daily control level: 37.15







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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.12.2015








    Yesterday, the price per barrel of Light Sweet Crude continued to drop to new lows. The price of crude has collapsed due to considerable downward pressure being exerted by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations.

    The downturn in the global economy which has seen both China and the European Union experience contractions has led to the demand of Oil decrease.

    The Saudi’s are concerned that production from non-OPEC nations eats away at its market share. Saudi Arabia has two main targets in its sights. The new upstarts being the United States shale producers and the other be oil pumped from the vast Russian fields.

    The production of Oil from US shale fields has pumped at a much higher cost than that from crude that is extracted by the Saudi’s. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has effectively used oversupply as a policy tool to curtail the production of shale oil by producers who in many cases have to service high debt burdens.

    In the case of targeting Russian production, the benefit for Saudi is twofold. Not only can the Saudi’s draw market share away from Russian producers, but it can also be used as a financial penalty limiting Russia’s involvement in Syria.

    Using Oil as a political tool is not something that is new. We had a glimpse of what can be achieved during the Oil crisis of the early 1970’s when OPEC cut off supply to the West in protest against unaligned policy interests.

    It would appear that the price of Oil will continue to decline due to reasons outside the control of the Saudi’s.

    Iran having come to an accommodation over its nuclear programme is now free to ramp up production. Furthermore, production from Russian fields continues to increase. Finally, the United States has now ended a 40-year ban on the export of Oil.

    With the demand of oil not increasing, the only limiting factor to production being ramped up is where will all this excess supply of crude be stored? Refineries are limited to how much crude can be processed and land-based storage is already at full capacity. Therefore, there is a need to begin storing oil offshore within tankers.

    With so much pessimism over the downward direction of the price of Oil, one would most probably contemplate levels of US$30, US$25 or even US$20 per barrel. However, moods can sometimes change very quickly.

    Searching for clues for when Oil will eventual begin to form a base is not an easy task.
    I am however looking at two areas of interest.










    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1040

    Target 2: 1.0790

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

    Daily control level: 1.0845




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4995

    Target 2: 1.4675

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

    Daily control level: 1.4930



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 123.30

    Target 2: 120.10

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

    Daily control level: 121.50





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0035

    Target 2: 0.9810

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 0.9895




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4075

    Target 2: 1.3840

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

    Daily control level: 1.3850




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7280

    Target 2: 0.7090

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 0.7110





    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1094.00

    Target 2: 1062.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 16.21

    Daily control level: 1066.75




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 37.60

    Target 2: 34.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.59

    Daily control level: 37.15

  4. #524

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 23.12.2015






    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD, Tuesday continued to trade higher as the price action remained within a well-defined but narrow up channel.

    This morning, the EURUSD has broken down from its up channel.

    The price action did consolidate within an early morning range however the selling pressure returned and EURUSD subsequently traded lower.

    If the 1.0900 level is breached, the initial downside target is 1.0850 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a bounce off the 1.0900 could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 resistance level and the 1.1055 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.090 level. However due to the developing price action, a sustained breach of this will change the trend from up to down.






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD, Tuesday continued to sell off following worse than expected PSBR number.

    This morning, the GBPUSD has traded with a slight upward bias but has been unable to make a sustained break away from its opening range.

    If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4900 and then the 1.4930 level. The latter level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A breach of the 1.4915 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

    However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4800, and the 1.4720 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY, Tuesday traded with a slight downward bias.

    This morning, USDJPY has experienced a very mild bounce with the price action contained within its opening days range.

    A continuation of the rally could see USDJPY test the 122.00 and 122.05 resistance levels. The latter level corresponding to the ATR upside projection.

    A breach of the 121.50 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see USDJPY test the 120.05 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.







    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF, Tuesday had initially traded lower as the price action rejected higher prices following the break of it’s up the channel.

    This morning USDCHF has found support at the 0.9850 level and this has enabled this pair to experience a modest rally.

    If USDCHF does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.9950 and then the 0.9960. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A breach of the 0.9940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9850, and the 0.9780 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD, Tuesday traded lower in a corrective fashion.

    This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range as the markets await significant afternoon Canadian data.

    If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3875 and then the 1.3810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A breach of the 1.3850 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.4030 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD, Tuesday continued to trade higher following the breach of its down channel.

    This morning, the AUDUSD has traded within its opening days range with the price action attempting to breach the overnight lower pivot that can be found at the 0.7220 level.

    If AUDUSD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7145 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 0.7220 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7300, and the 0.7325 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold, Tuesday continued to trade lower in a corrective fashion.

    This morning, the price action has been contained with a narrow opening range.
    If Gold does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1066.75 and then the 1057.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 1066.75 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see Gold test the 1088.0.0 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil, Tuesday continued to trade higher following a bounce off the 35.50 level.

    This morning, the Oil has traded within its opening days range and is now testing the upper level of its down channel.

    If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 38.1 5level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 35.80 and the 35.15 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 35.80 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.










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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.12.2015






    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD, Wednesday traded lower for most of the session as the price action broke under the 1.0900 support level.

    However. EURUSD was not able to continue with the bearish momentum as buyers came in and supported this pair around the 1.0870 congestion area.

    This morning, the EURUSD has continued to trade higher and has broken above its early morning range.

    If the 1.0985 level is breached, the initial upside target is 1.1010 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a retest of the 1.0900 level could see EURUSD trade down to the 1.0810 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.0985 level.





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD, Wednesday traded higher for most of the session as the price action broke through the 1.4850 resistance level.

    However, GBPUSD advance was stalled at the 1.4900 resistance level.

    This morning, the GBPUSD had initially traded within its opening range but has subsequently made an attempt to break higher.

    The 1.4900 resistance level thus far, however, has proven to be a strong barrier for further advances.

    If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4975 and then the 1.5000 level. The former level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 1.4900 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

    However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4850, and the 1.4765 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.





    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY, Wednesday traded in sideways to lower fashion for most of the session.

    This morning, USDJPY has broken down from its opening days range.

    A continuation of the decline could see USDJPY test the 119.90 support level. This level corresponds to the ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDJPY test the 121.15 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A breach of the 121.15 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF, Wednesday traded higher for most of the day.

    However into the Asian session, strong selling came into the market.

    This morning USDCHF has experienced a strong decline as the price action broke down from its opening range and is no testing the lows of yesterday.

    If USDCHF does continue to trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is 0.9855 followed by the 0.9810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A breach of the 0.9855 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9950, and the 0.9990 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD, Wednesday experienced strong selloff.

    This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range.

    If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3800 and then the 1.3735. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.3960 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A breach of the 1.3940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD, Wednesday traded in a sideways manner following the breach of its down channel.

    This morning, the AUDUSD has traded higher as the price action breaks above its opening range.

    If AUDUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7315 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7205, and the 0.7140 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 0.7205 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.



    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold, Wednesday continued to trade lower.

    This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

    If Gold does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1075.40 and then the 1083.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Gold test the 1086.00 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 1075.40 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil, Wednesday traded higher for the entire session.

    This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

    If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 39.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 36.65 and the 35.85 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 35.85 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.










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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.12.2015







    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD, Wednesday traded lower for most of the session as the price action broke under the 1.0900 support level.

    However. EURUSD was not able to continue with the bearish momentum as buyers came in and supported this pair around the 1.0870 congestion area.

    This morning, the EURUSD has continued to trade higher and has broken above its early morning range.

    If the 1.0985 level is breached, the initial upside target is 1.1010 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a retest of the 1.0900 level could see EURUSD trade down to the 1.0810 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.0985 level.





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD, Wednesday traded higher for most of the session as the price action broke through the 1.4850 resistance level.

    However, GBPUSD advance was stalled at the 1.4900 resistance level.

    This morning, the GBPUSD had initially traded within its opening range but has subsequently made an attempt to break higher.

    The 1.4900 resistance level thus far, however, has proven to be a strong barrier for further advances.

    If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4975 and then the 1.5000 level. The former level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 1.4900 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

    However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4850, and the 1.4765 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY, Wednesday traded in sideways to lower fashion for most of the session.

    This morning, USDJPY has broken down from its opening days range.

    A continuation of the decline could see USDJPY test the 119.90 support level. This level corresponds to the ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDJPY test the 121.15 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A breach of the 121.15 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF, Wednesday traded higher for most of the day.

    However into the Asian session, strong selling came into the market.

    This morning USDCHF has experienced a strong decline as the price action broke down from its opening range and is no testing the lows of yesterday.

    If USDCHF does continue to trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is 0.9855 followed by the 0.9810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A breach of the 0.9855 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9950, and the 0.9990 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.




    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD, Wednesday experienced strong selloff.

    This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range.

    If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3800 and then the 1.3735. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.3960 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A breach of the 1.3940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD, Wednesday traded in a sideways manner following the breach of its down channel.

    This morning, the AUDUSD has traded higher as the price action breaks above its opening range.

    If AUDUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7315 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7205, and the 0.7140 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 0.7205 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.






    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold, Wednesday continued to trade lower.

    This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

    If Gold does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1075.40 and then the 1083.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Gold test the 1086.00 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 1075.40 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil, Wednesday traded higher for the entire session.

    This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

    If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 39.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 36.65 and the 35.85 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.

    A sustained breach of the 35.85 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.










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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.12.2015







    The first day back after Christmas and the main driver of the European session, London is closed as British traders enjoying the Boxing Day holiday.

    With market participants finding it hard to find anyone to match their trades it is expected that volumes will be much lower than is normal for any given Monday.

    In terms of event risk, the afternoon session will come with a round of US debt auction, where two-year notes as well as three and six-month bills will be offered. Traders will look at the outcome to assess the recent Federal Reserve policy tightening into real-world application.

    Apart from the above investors will also be looking at the US Dallas Manufacturing Activity release this afternoon. The index is forecasted to decline to -7.0 from -4.9 figure last time.

    In general, it is expected that the US session will be a quiet affair with dealing rooms manned by skeleton staff who is there in case for an odd piece of corporate business information may need to be taken care of.









    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 4 hour: UP

    Target 1: 1.1047

    Target 2: 1.0853

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.0985




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 4 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.5011

    Target 2: 1.4799

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 1.4900




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 4 hour: Down

    Target 1: 121.14

    Target 2: 119.12

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.0124

    Daily control level: 121.15






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 4 hour: Range

    Target 1: 0.9941

    Target 2: 0.9763

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.9855




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 4 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3939

    Target 2: 1.3725

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.3940




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7357

    Target 2: 0.7187

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7205




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1088.36

    Target 2: 1062.42

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.97

    Daily control level: 1075.40







    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 39.62

    Target 2: 36.90

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3629

    Daily control level: 35.85







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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29.12.2015










    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has stalled just below the psychological resistance level of 1.1000 ahead of the New York holidays.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0973 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1016, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1061, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0942, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0917, which is the today’s 2nd pivot support level.





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD is looking to retest the 10-month low, after the pair bounced off the top of the downtrend channel.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4895 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4796, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4775, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4917, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today and also coincides with the upper part of the downtrend channel. Following that, GBPUSD could extend the move to 1.4956, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.







    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 120.38 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 120.63, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 120.88 being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 119.87, which is the 2nd pivot support of the day. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension towards 119.61, could likely occur next.




    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF continues to trade around the daily pivot point today.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9879 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9857, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9831, which is the 2nd pivot support of the pair.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9904, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance and also coinciding with the top of the recently formed downtrend channel. The extension further to 0.9927 could follow next in this case.






    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD resumed to trade higher this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3876 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.3981, being the pair’s 2nd resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4007, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3838, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3797, being the Average True Range downside projection of today.





    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has once again retesting 0.7280 support this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7256 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7293, being the 2nd resistance level of today. Should that target be reached successfully, the extension towards 0.7305 could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7236, being the pairs 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, an extension towards 0.7224, would likely follow next.






    GOLD





    level The intraday technical outlook

    Gold has bounced off the downtrend resistance line this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold below 1070.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1064.35, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend towards 1060.05 mark.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1074.89, which is the 1st pivot resistance level of the metal for today. Following that, the commodity’s price could move to 1081.53, being the upside Average True Range upside projection for today.



    OIL






    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price has made up to now unsuccessful attempt to trade higher.

    The commodity needs to hold below 37.40 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 36.54, being the 1st pivot resistance level for today. Should that target be reached, the commodity could continue its move to 35.74, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

    If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 38.40, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level for today.









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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.12.2015









    December 30 gives us an increase in event risk with a good amount of data being released to the market.

    The morning starts early with the Spanish Flash CPI data being released at 8:00 am London time. The change in the price of goods and services within the country is expected to improve to 0.1%, up from -0.3% of the November release.

    This publishing is followed by the European Central Bank announcing the final M3 Money Supply number for 2015, with the domestic currency circulation and deposits is forecasted to come slightly lower to 5.2% this time.

    The focus for the afternoon shifts across the pond to the United States when the National association of retailers will release Pending Home Sales number. The monthly increase is expected to reach 0.6% today.

    This is followed shortly after by the Crude Oil Inventories data, made available by Energy Information Administration agency of the United States. Despite that commodity’s oversupply still persists in the markets, some further drop in stock held is expected. A reduction by -1.8 million barrels is projected this week after -5.9 million of the previous release.

    The amount of data to be released under normal circumstances should be sufficient to move the market.

    Nevertheless, with trading rooms across the major centres of London, New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt virtually deserted and with most corporate clients doing little between the Christmas and New Year break, volumes should be light but spikes in volatility could occur.







    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 1.1008

    Target 2: 1.0828

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 1.0985







    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4912

    Target 2: 1.4714

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.4900



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 121.30

    Target 2: 119.58

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8594

    Daily control level: 121.15



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0012

    Target 2: 0.9848

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

    Daily control level: 0.9855


    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3946

    Target 2: 1.3736

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.3940



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7372

    Target 2: 0.7212

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

    Daily control level: 0.7205




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1080.73

    Target 2: 1056.41

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.16

    Daily control level: 1075.40



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Range

    Target 1: 39.10

    Target 2: 36.56

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3307

    Daily control level: 35.85








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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.12.2015





    With much of Europe closed today, we expect trading volumes to be light on the last day of 2015.

    There are official bank holidays in Germany, Japan, New Zealand and Australia and this should limit activity in the Euro, Japanese Yen, Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

    Although London is open, the normal course of business is for trading rooms to square up positions in the morning and for the banks to close early.

    It will be up to New York to close Thursday’s and the year’s business. The Department of Labor will publish its final weekly Unemployment Claims data. However with the Federal Reserve having already given its decision on interest rates, it is doubtful that the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen will interrupt her well-deserved festive break.

    On that note, ACFX would like to wish all our clients and partners a prosperous and happy new year.







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1015

    Target 2: 1.0850

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 1.0945





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4905

    Target 2: 1.4715

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.4790




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 121.35

    Target 2: 119.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

    Daily control level: 120.15




    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9965

    Target 2: 0.9805

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

    Daily control level: 0.9855





    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3980

    Target 2: 1.3775

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.3940





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7355

    Target 2: 0.7210

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

    Daily control level: 0.7265




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1073.50

    Target 2: 1048.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.55

    Daily control level: 1072.00



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 38.60

    Target 2: 36.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27

    Daily control level: 38.40






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