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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #531

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.01.2016






    Following on from depressing PMI data from China that sent equity values crashing on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Monday afternoon saw weak US data add to the rather woeful start to 2016.

    Yesterday afternoon the Institute for Supply Management contributed further to investor concerns by announcing an ISM Manufacturing PMI number fell short both of expectations and the prior month’s publication.

    The market had expected that the ISM would publish data that was in line with the 49.1 forecast, however, the release of 48.2 even failed to beat the prior months 48.6 reading. Readings that are below 50.0 indicate manufacturing activity is contracting.

    This poor reading means that for the December 2015 reporting period that manufacturing in the World’s largest economy has contracted by the greatest amount for six years.

    The drop off in manufacturing activity can be blamed on the low price of Crude and the impact of the strong US Dollar which has hampered the efforts of the country’s exporters. Furthermore, anaemic growth which goes hand in hand with a lack of demand from the global economy continues to hinder local manufacturers.

    There was additional bad news from the Construction sector when the US Census Bureau announced that construction spending had declined by -0.4%. The markets had expected a release to be in line with the 0.7% forecast and to at least beat the prior months 0.3% reading.

    With Monday’s domestic data being so poor, the US markets took their cue from China as both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slipped substantially lower on the first trading day of 2016.

    January has only just begun and with a lot of data and news driven event risk to be announced tomorrow. This includes the ADP jobs number, ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Crude Oil Inventories and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes.

    With so much news hitting the wires, investors will be looking and hoping for positive signs which will support the US equity markets.






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0915

    Target 2: 1.0740

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 1.0945




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4810

    Target 2: 1.4615

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.4815



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 120.25

    Target 2: 118.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

    Daily control level: 120.50




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0110

    Target 2: 0.9930

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.9920



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4060

    Target 2: 1.3845

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.3870



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7260

    Target 2: 0.7110

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

    Daily control level: 0.7330



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1086.00

    Target 2: 1060.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.90

    Daily control level: 1058.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 38.90

    Target 2: 36.35

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27

    Daily control level: 36.70






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  2. #532

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.01.2016




    According to the minutes of the last FOMC meeting that took place on December 16, the decision to increase the Federal Funds rate from the historic lows of <0.25% was a “close call”.

    Although Federal Reserve committee member were united in their decision to increase rates, the discussion was not a plain and simple rubber stamp event.

    According to the minutes, “only gradual increases” should be expected. This comment reflected the concerns of members of the committee who viewed deflationary risks that emanate from the global economy could derail the Federal Reserve’s plan to normalize the interest rate environment.

    In line with the concerns that external factors could have a bearing on the FOMC’s plans and the dot plot that has been disclosed to the market the minutes of the last meeting noted that “Participants emphasized the need to adjust the policy path as economic conditions evolved and to avoid appearing to commit to any specific pace of adjustments.”

    Although the Federal Reserve Chairwoman in her message to the media and market said that she was confident that the 2% inflation target would be achieved, these views were not shared by some of the committee members.

    The start of the year has seen the markets in turmoil, with the price of Oil plunging. Many analysts in the energy sector are predicting Light Sweet Crude to target the US$30.00 per barrel in the short term.

    News from China since the start of the year has also been worrying with the stock exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen being closed once again today. These closures are due to massive drops in Chinese equity values that have meant the authorities have had to trigger circuit breakers that put in place a down limit on falls that reach the 5% and 7% levels.

    The fall in the price of Chinese equities has also spread panic across to other global exchanges. The US Dow Jones 30, NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 are now once again in a bear territory on daily time frame.

    Of the two mandates that the FOMC is responsible for, serious question marks now hover over the expectation that the inflation target will be reached.

    On the jobs front, there are signs for optimism. The Federal Reserve is banking on the improvement in the employment outlook will continue and this will act as a catalyst that will maintain the recovery in the US economy. However, some FOMC members have questioned this hypothesis and made their views clear the minutes.

    The minutes that were released last night portray a Fed that was much divided on the decision to increase interest rates. Furthermore, the divisions that lay within the committee worryingly tells the markets that that the FOMC is not convinced that its actions are correct and ahead of the curve.

    This is a recipe for further volatility during January.







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0865

    Target 2: 1.0695

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 1.0705




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4715

    Target 2: 1.4540

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 1.4815




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 119.30

    Target 2: 117.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

    Daily control level: 119.70




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0155

    Target 2: 0.9985

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 1.0120




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4185

    Target 2: 1.3965

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

    Daily control level: 1.3895




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7140

    Target 2: 0.6995

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

    Daily control level: 0.7215




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1106.00

    Target 2: 1080.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 13.41

    Daily control level: 1074.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 36.00

    Target 2: 33.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37

    Daily control level: 39.00




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  3. #533

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08.01.2016







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD, Thursday closed the day higher following the indifferent minutes release from the FOMC.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend however the slope of the 120-period linear regression channel continues to be negative. The line of control that is below the current price action at the 1.0765 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning, EURUSD is trading within the opening range.

    A continuation EURUSD move higher could find resistance at the 1.0948 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0838 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD, Thursday closed the day lower however strong support was found at the 1.4550 area.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 1.4815 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning GBPUSD, has broken down from its early morning opening range.

    A continuation GBPUSD move lower could be halted at the 1.4549 support levels which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see GBPUSD trade back up to the 1.4685 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY, Thursday closed the day lower but found support at the 117.50 area.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 119.70 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning USDJPY is trading within the opening range.

    A continuation USDJPY move lower could be halted at the 117.72 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see USDJPY test the 118.35 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF, Thursday closed the day lower but found support in the 0.9925 area.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend however the slope of the 120-period linear regression channel continues to be positive. The line of control that is above the current price action at the 1.0120 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning USDCHF, is has broken up from its opening range.

    A continuation USDCHF moves higher could be halted at the 1.0002 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9923 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD, Thursday closed the day up but found resistance in the 1.4170 area.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend as can be seen by the positive slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 1.3895 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning USDCAD has broken up from its early morning opening range.

    A continuation of USDCAD move higher could be halted at the 1.4172 which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see USDCAD trade back down to the 1.4012 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD, Thursday closed the day lower but found support at the 0.7000 area.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 0.7080 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning AUDUSD has broken down from its early morning opening range.

    A continuation of AUDUSD moves lower could be halted at the 0.6997 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see AUDUSD trade back up to the 0.7079 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold, Thursday closed the day up.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend as can be seen by the positive slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 1074.00 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning Gold has broken down from its early morning opening range.

    A continuation Gold move lower could be halted at the 1099.00 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see Gold trade back up to the 1109.00 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil, Thursday closed the day lower but did managed to bounce off strong support in the 33.00 area.

    The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 35.30 prior swing pivot level.

    This morning Oil has just traded under its opening days range.

    A continuation Oil move lower could be halted at the 33.83 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see Oil trade back up to the 35.48 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.






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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.01.2016






    Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its first Jobs report of 2016. Although the data looks back to December, this jobs report was meant to set the tone for a year where the Federal Reserve according to its dot plot is planning no less than 4 interest rate increases.

    The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% however the Non-Farm Employment Change number caught the initial headlines with 292,000 jobs being added during the previous month. This very strong number blew away the forecast of 203,000 and the prior release of 252,000. The revisions for the prior two months were also good at +50,000.

    One would have expected that on the face of it, such positive Non-Farm Payroll data would have sent the US Dollar higher during the latter part of the New York session as traders priced in an increased probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve March meeting.

    However, the one piece of bad news that was contained on Friday’s Job Report, the month on month Average Hourly Earnings number disappointed investors.

    As the US Dollar lost ground as it traded into the close the markets felt that although the NFP headline looks impressive, the markets still view the numbers not good enough for a March increase.

    The question mark over the quality of the jobs being created is still of a great concern and with the jobs outlook approaching levels of full employment, it is debatable that we see further large NFP numbers announced during the coming year.

    The Federal Reserve continues to push a 4 interest rate increase scenario for 2016, however, the bond market sees this to be too optimistic.

    What is rather striking is according to Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability (WIPR) page, market participants have now calculated an 8% probability the interest rates will be cut in March.

    Although this is an unlikely scenario that the market is now allowing for a potential rate cut does show how fragile many market participants view this recovery in the US economy.

    The big story of last week was China. This morning we awoke to headlines that there have been further reverses on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

    The pessimism that has seeped into the global economy since the start of the year combined with the far from unified position amongst committee members that was highlighted in last week’s Federal Reserve minutes would seem to point to further rate hikes being extremely gradual.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1003

    Target 2: 1.0872

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.0800




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4588

    Target 2: 1.4462

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.4650



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 117.61

    Target 2: 116.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81

    Daily control level: 118.80



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9975

    Target 2: 0.9856

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.0050



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4260

    Target 2: 1.4079

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.4050





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7001

    Target 2: 0.6906

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

    Daily control level: 0.7080





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1116.00

    Target 2: 1094.79

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.54

    Daily control level: 1091.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 34.71

    Target 2: 32.20

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

    Daily control level: 35.30







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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.01.2016






    As the volatile start to the year continued, equities took further beatings as worries over China persisted.

    Asian stocks reached new lows not seen since 2011 the China 50 index remained under pressure.

    The recent reversal on Chinese equity markets has spread to other stock markets in the United States and Europe.

    Furthermore, the negativity that surrounds the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets has seeped through to the forex market where the offshore Chinese Renminbi lost ground against the US Dollar.

    At one point the USDCNH rate peaked at 6.7631 last Thursday but has since slipped back to 6.5880 following concerted action by the Peoples Bank of China to intervene and stabilize the value of the Yuan.

    Increasingly, many commentators have now questioned the policy of the local regulators with the Peoples Bank of China coming increasingly under the spotlight.

    The Peoples Bank of China move to support the Yuan did surprise the markets but this action is understandable. The PBOC is attempting to engineer a foreign exchange policy where the markets rather than it decides the appropriate exchange rate.

    Furthermore, with the entry of the Yuan into the IMF reserve currency basket the PBOC is attempting to keep in line with its commitments which limits Yuan depreciation.

    However, the PBOC has to manage the current high levels of volatility and these are only set to increase when in the early hours of tomorrow morning the Customs General Administration of China (CGAC) will announce the latest Trade Balance report.

    Analysts and investors will be looking at the level of exports and imports as it is expected that both these components of the Trade Balance report will contract.

    Such news would signal that the Chinese economy is shrinkage and in turn, will further fray the nerves of investors and officials at the PBOC.










    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0940

    Target 2: 1.0789

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.0800




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4613

    Target 2: 1.4461

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.4600




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 118.06

    Target 2: 117.16

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86

    Daily control level: 118.80




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0088

    Target 2: 0.9923

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.0050




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3130

    Target 2: 1.4140

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 1.4050




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7028

    Target 2: 0.6927

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078

    Daily control level: 0.7080





    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1106.00

    Target 2: 1084.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.27

    Daily control level: 1091.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 32.90

    Target 2: 30.81

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

    Daily control level: 34.25








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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 13.01.2016






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD continues the decline after the pair bounced off the top of the downward trend channel yesterday.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0858 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0761, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0736, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0840, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0909, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has slightly recovered this morning, after the pair sunk to a new six-year low yesterday.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4546 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4365, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4242, which is the 3rd psychological support level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4533, which is today’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4659, being the 2nd pivot resistance.



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is trading higher this morning, after the pair broke the top of the downtrend channel yesterday.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 117.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 118.48, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 118.90 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.49, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 117.21, being the USDJPY 1st pivot support level, could occur next.



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF continue to keep the upward momentum this morning.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0010 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0118, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0136, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of the pair for today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0010, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 0.9975 could follow next.



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4250 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.4160, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4110, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4325, which is the Average True Range upside projection together with the 1st pivot resistance level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4389, being the 2nd pivot resistance of the pair.



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has stabilized this morning, after the pair has created a new higher high as a likely confirmation of the downtrend reversal.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6980 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7053, being the Average True Range upside projection of the pair. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7104 could likely follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6967, being the pairs Average True Range downside projection. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6940, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today, could take place next.



    GOLD



    level The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is retracing this morning, after the metal formed a lower high pattern during the yesterday’s trading session.

    The commodity needs to hold below 1089.53 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1074.83, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1069.00, which is the commodity’s 3rd intermediate pivot support.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1089.53, which is the pair’s 1st pivot point of today.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price has bounced off the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

    The commodity needs to break below 31.85 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 30.42, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.06, which is 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the commodity, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.10, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.





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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14.01.2016








    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD surged higher this morning, ahead of the release of the accounts from the latest ECB policy meeting held on December 3rd.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0855 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0968, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upnside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0989, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0855, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0797, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection.





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has slightly recovered this morning, after the pair sunk to a new six-year low yesterday.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4420 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4316, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4268, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4461, which is today’s 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4497, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of the pair.




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is retracing this morning, after the formation of the lower high showed the pair’s unability to support the upward momentum.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 117.88 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 117.39, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 116.877.12 being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.16, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 118.40, being the USDJPY 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level, could occur next.






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has broken sharply the recently formed upward trend channel, as US Dollar shows some weakness during today’s trading session.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0060 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9974, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9927, which is the 3rd pivot support level for today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0060, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension to 1.0103 could follow next.




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has reached a new thirteen-year high this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.4459 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.4160, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4494, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4300, which is the Pivot point of today of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4256, being the Average True Range downside projection of the pair.




    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the downward trending channel this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.6983 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6878, being the Average True Range downside projection of the pair. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6852 could likely follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7001, being the pairs Average True Range upside projection. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.7018, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today, could take place next.




    GOLD




    level The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is once again retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

    The commodity needs to break below 1089.42 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1081.69, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1078.63, which is the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1099.19, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance point of today.




    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price has has concentrated around the daily pivot point.

    The commodity needs to hold below 31.65 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 30.72, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.04, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of the commodity, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 32.82, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.








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  8. #538

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.01.2016








    According to market commentary by the British banking giant, the Royal Bank of Scotland, investors and the general public are facing a “cataclysmic year”.

    In a note to investors, RBS said “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about the return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”

    RBS pointed to the crisis in China as a catalyst that would lead to the world economy shuddering into a grinding halt. The parallel to events of 2008 which led to the once-mighty Lehman Brothers falling into bankruptcy is a scenario that is worrying to say the least.

    Following the events of 2008, central banks across the globe implemented massive stimulus programmes in the form of quantitative easing. These programmes were combined with structural reform and belt-tightening which in the case of periphery Eurozone economies was administered with considerable hardship for these countries citizens.

    Is it really the case that after all these sacrifices, that according to RBS, that 2016 will be a year that brings us back to ground zero?

    The stock market falls in China has been accompanied with declines in Europe, the USA and Asia. The major US indices of the Dow30, S&P500 and NasDaq are in bear territory.

    Equity markets have risen off the back of cheap credit. Although these days are not exactly over with interest rates still being substantially low, the support that was offered has been withdrawn when the US FOMC increased interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The Federal Reserve, according to its dot plot is planning to hike interest rates a further four times during 2016.

    In the commodity space, the price of crude continues to tumble and these falls could increase as Iranian production is ramped up. With Saudi Arabia and Iran now at loggerheads, over geopolitical tensions stemming from competing interests in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, it is hard to see how these two Persian Gulf giants will be able to negotiate an agreement to limit production at the next OPEC gathering.

    According to Andrew Roberts, who RBS credit chief, U.S and European equities are in line for a 10% to 20% correction. This gloomy prediction follows on from Morgan Stanley’s call for Oil to reach US$20 per barrel. Standard Chartered was, even more, negative on oil when it forecast crude hitting US$10 per barrel.

    If investment banks are correct, the old adage of “sell in May and go away” has been replaced by “sell now and go on holiday”.

    The picture that we are now seeing on the equity front is not very encouraging. Global indices do look like a sell-side bet. The investment bankers could be right. Growth in the global economy could hit the buffers and the China credit bubble could burst. There is enough geopolitical risk and bad news to make most us switch off our flat screen televisions when the nightly bulletin is about to begin.

    Invariably, most of the times, investment bankers get it wrong. RBS is correct to highlight the concerns. However, it is still rather difficult to assess the impact that a slowdown in China will have on the global economy. It should be remembered that the Chinese economy in relative terms opened up only recently to the outside world.

    The problem with notes such as the one made by RBS is that if you look hard enough, you will find signs that point to an impending crash in the global economy. On the flip side, the same can be true if you look for signs that the global economy is going to expand.

    However, the fear is that such pessimistic outlooks that are promoted by investment banks could create a surge in negative sentiment and a self-fulfilling prophecy.









    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0954

    Target 2: 1.0788

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 1.0940




    GBPUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4502

    Target 2: 1.4317

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.4450






    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 118.51

    Target 2: 117.33

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.92

    Daily control level: 117.20




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0134

    Target 2: 0.9956

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.0095




    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4463

    Target 2: 1.4406

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

    Daily control level: 1.4325




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7011

    Target 2: 0.6915

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.6905





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1091.00

    Target 2: 1068.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.62

    Daily control level: 1096.00




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 32.98

    Target 2: 30.44

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6536

    Daily control level: 32.60










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  9. #539

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.01.2016








    Much to the displeasure of the Saudi’s and their Gulf allies, most of the economic sanctions that were placed on Iran have been lifted.

    However, this victory for Tehran was tempered by news from Washington that the United States had imposed new, limited sanctions against eleven entities and individuals that are associated with Iran’s ballistic missile programme.

    This positive news for Iran is also good news for global business as it allows this country to come back into the international fold and transact in global commerce.

    Iran after many years of sanctions is in urgent need for a renewal of its infrastructure. This will bring many opportunities to foreign businesses who are looking for a slice of the action. It has already been reported for example that Airbus Industries is in line to capture a major 114 airliner order from Iran now that sanctions have been lifted.

    There will also be a monetary windfall for the Iranian Government as it will finally have access to some USD 100 billion in assets that were frozen and off limits.

    However, the lifting of the embargo means that Iran is now free to ramp up its output of Crude Oil. Presently, Iran pumps out 1.1 million barrels of oil on a daily basis for export. Now that the embargo has been lifted, Iran is now free to use its spare capacity to increase exports by 500,000 barrels per day. Once the infrastructure is in place and if customers can be found Iran plans to further increase production by a further 500,000 barrels per day.

    With Iran increasing production the price of crude which is already under significant pressure could be set to fall further.

    In the past, Saudi Arabia has been able to maintain its market share by squeezing high cost of extraction businesses such as the US Shale producers. However, such a policy would be difficult to implement against Iran for a variety of reasons.

    Iran enjoys a relatively low cost of production which will enable it to ride out any further price shocks. Furthermore, the Iran government is committed for political reasons to increase production as this would be in line with its geopolitical ambitions of confronting the Saudi’s over the leading role in Syria and Iraq.

    Crude has been used before as a political lever. One only needs to look back to 1973 oil embargo that was imposed due to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Once again, it would appear that simple rules of demand and supply will be distorted as the political imperative takes centre stage as Riyadh and Tehran fight over regional supremacy.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0992

    Target 2: 1.0820

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 1.0830





    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4361

    Target 2: 1.4169

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.4450




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook


    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 117.64

    Target 2: 116.35

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.01

    Daily control level: 118.30



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0103

    Target 2: 0.9953

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 1.0060





    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4639

    Target 2: 1.4471

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

    Daily control level: 1.4325




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.6925

    Target 2: 0.6832

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 0.7005






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1104.00

    Target 2: 1077.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.31

    Daily control level: 1096.00





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 30.00

    Target 2: 27.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.7593

    Daily control level: 31.85






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  10. #540

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 19.01.2016








    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD is retesting the upper limits of the downward trending channel this morning.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0895 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0837, which is the 2nd support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0798, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today together with the 3rd pivot support level, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0922, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0969, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.






    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD is recovering after the UK inflation data indicated some improvement this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4353, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4384, which is the 3rd resistance level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4267, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4211, being the 1st pivot support of today.





    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is trading higher this morning, after the pair reached a one-year low yesterday.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 117.12 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 118.24, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 118.39 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 116.95, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 115.5748, being the USDJPY 1st intermediate pivot support level, could occur next.





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF continue to keep the upward momentum this morning.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0041 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0113, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0150, which is Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0041, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0010 could follow next.





    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4547 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.4372, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4548, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4611, being the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.










    AUDUSD






    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has breached the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6936 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6971, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7014 could likely follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6874, being the pairs Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6828, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection, could take place next.





    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.

    Gold needs to hold below 1089.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1084.10, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1104.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1082.11, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level.





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price continues on the way up, after it bounced off the top of the downtrend channel yesterday.

    The commodity needs to hold above 30.18 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 31.52, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.87, which is 3rd pivot resistance level of the commodity, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.81, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support of today.








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