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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #541

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.01.2016






    There was an understanding that the Bank of England would either raise interest rates at the same time or the very least would follow in step with Washington policymakers at the Federal Reserve.

    However in a speech given yesterday, the Bank of England Governor painted a depressing picture of the United Kingdom and global economy.

    The US and the UK economies are very similar however Mark Carney has now thrown into question from where the growth and inflation that the FOMC are seeing will come from.

    Mark Carney has in effect implied that Janet Yellen and her colleagues have made a policy error in increasing interest rates in December.

    Furthermore, far from moving in step with the dot plot that proposes four US interest rates in 2016, the Bank of England has now totally discounted the possibility of a UK interest rate rise during the course of this year.

    The FOMC in December moved to nominalize the interest rate environment just in case inflation and wage growth got out of hand.

    Yesterday’s speech by the Bank of England Governor has now created a two-way bet on the outlook of the global economy.

    Was Yellen prudent in her policy to hike interest rates or is Carney’s cautious wait and see approach more in tune with the realities of this much interconnected global economy.

    The fallout from yesterday’s speech sent the British Pound tumbling to lows not seen since 2009 and there are no signs yet that the bottom has been reached. On a trade-weighted basis, the depreciation in the Pound over past 6 months stands at 7%.

    2016 thus far has been a year of market volatility. The New Year always gives us the opportunity to reassess our lives, our plans and our situations. Back on January 4, the market had priced in a UK rate increase for November 2016. However, yesterday’s not so pleasant reassessment of the world economy has seen the markets push back the first rate increase until the middle of 2017.

    In the space of just two weeks, what was thought to be the accepted course of interest rate policy over the next twelve months has been completely changed.

    However, will the economic realities in 2017 allow the Bank of England to move ahead and increase rates? What if we do not see an improvement in CPI and wage data.

    Mr Carney may be hoping that the weak pound will boost inflation and stimulate exports but so far, this has not been the case. On the contrary, inflation still is under considerable downward pressure and fears of deflation persist.

    The problem is that the fight to get to the bottom in a currency war just reallocates deflationary pressure to the country that has the strongest currency.

    If devaluation is the only tool left available to policy makers and with question marks over quantitative easing which has plainly has not worked as expected, what is next for world’s central bankers?

    What is required is sustainable global growth and this will mean that some tough choices have to be made.

    Is it a case that we reassess what is meant to be normal growth and lower our expectations or do the world leaders take the bold move to address the obvious problems of a global economy that suffer from overcapacity and an addiction to debt?

    Harking back to the spring and summer months of last year, one politician was thrown into the global spotlight. He is, of course, Yanis Varoufakis the former Greek Finance Minister.

    Maybe just maybe, this rebellious yet likeable chap got it right. We have had QE and we are now entering a currency war. However in this interconnected world, we need courageous and interconnected reform and policies that cure the ills and not just massage the symptoms.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1009

    Target 2: 1.0857

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 1.0850




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4255

    Target 2: 1.4056

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

    Daily control level: 1.4350




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 118.24

    Target 2: 116.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11

    Daily control level: 118.15



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0098

    Target 2: 0.9930

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 0.9955




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4686

    Target 2: 1.4517

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

    Daily control level: 1.4420



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.6947

    Target 2: 0.6820

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

    Daily control level: 0.6835






    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1102.00

    Target 2: 1079.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.20

    Daily control level: 1096.00




    OIL





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 29.20

    Target 2: 26.74

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83

    Daily control level: 30.30







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  2. #542

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 21.01.2016




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook


    EURUSD is has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0913 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0852, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0795, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0951, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0975, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has once again tried to retest the six-year low the pair reached yesterday.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4177 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4078, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4042, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4230, which is today’s 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4271, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today.






    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY continues to decline, reaching a new year low yesterday.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 116.85 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 116.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 116.00 being the pair’s psychological support level, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.77, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 118.56, being the USDJPY 2nd pivot resistance level, could occur next.




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is ranging in indecision before deciding on the move further.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0028 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0095, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0132, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0028, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 0.9998 could follow next.




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4555 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.4370, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4338 support line.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4583, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4771, being the 2nd pivot resistance of the pair.




    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD continues to range after the pair breached the top of the downward trend channel this Tuesday.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6885 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6982, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7000 could likely follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6849, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6788, could take place next.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.

    Gold needs to hold above 1099.07 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1113.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1121.00, which is the 2nd pivot support resistance.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1087.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price slid further down yesterday.

    The commodity needs to hold below 28.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 27.49, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 26.91, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.64, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance of today.






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  3. #543

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.01.2016







    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD returned to trade within the borders of the downward trending channel formed earlier on 4 hours timescale.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0857 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0793, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0761, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0896, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0940, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD continues to recover the losses the pair made at the beginning of this week.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4183 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4332, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4404, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4182, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4101, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend trending channel this morning.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 117.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 118.75, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.51 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.32, which is the pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 116.83, being the USDJPY 1st pivot support level, could occur next.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is trading higher this morning, with the pair continuing to observe the uptrend channel limits.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0076 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0142, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0169, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0076, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0007 could follow next.




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high on Wednesday.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4344 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.4137, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4031 support line.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4398, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4461, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair.




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD continues trade higher this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6963 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7051, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.8000 could likely follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6920, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6900, could take place next.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is slightly retracing from the highs the commodity made last Wednesday.

    Gold needs to breach above 1099.22 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1106.00, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1114.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is recovering sharply since last afternoon.

    The commodity needs to hold above 29.51 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial downside target is 31.86, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.57, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.51, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.






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  4. #544

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.01.2016






    This morning at 9:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.

    This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.

    The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.

    Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.

    The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.

    Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.

    The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.

    The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight increase to 108.5, as compared to the previous number of 108.7.

    A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.

    The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic bufsiness outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.

    The recent ECB statement to the worlds gathered financial press was seen as very accommodating and dovish. The ECB President, Mr Mario Draghi said that he and his colleagues were in agreement and would do what it takes to ensure that Eurozone inflation meets the 2% target and that the employment outlook improves significantly. Mr Draghi used the phrase “No Limits” to reiterate how seriously the ECB is committed to these twin goals. If necessary, the European Central Bank is expected to announce additional measures as early as March. As the German Ifo survey contributes to the data that the ECB samples, today’s release will have added significance.









    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0896

    Target 2: 1.0710

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

    Daily control level: 1.0920





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4382

    Target 2: 1.4179

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

    Daily control level: 1.4245



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 119.60

    Target 2: 117.66

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.15

    Daily control level: 116.40



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0234

    Target 2: 1.0066

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.0010



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4287

    Target 2: 1.4006

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157

    Daily control level: 1.4545



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7087

    Target 2: 0.6923

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

    Daily control level: 0.6870



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1112.00

    Target 2: 1086.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.52

    Daily control level: 1091.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 33.96

    Target 2: 30.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.97

    Daily control level: 27.45








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  5. #545

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 26.01.2016






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning, hinting that a move lower might be ahead.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0830 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0805, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0755, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0898, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0943, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD continues to move lower after the pair bounced off the top of the downward trending channel yesterday.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4277 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4121, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4100, which is a psychological support level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4297, which the 1st pivot resistance point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4329, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.





    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has bounced off the top of the downward trending channel, signalling a move higher might be ahead.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 118.43 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 118.93, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.11 being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could likely take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.74, which 2nd pivot support level. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 117.17, being the USDJPY Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could occur next.




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is retesting a two-month high this morning, after an unsuccessful attempt yesterday.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0139 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0196, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0234, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0097, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. The extension further to 1.0066 could follow next.





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD took a break from a sharp decline off the recently made thirteen-year high.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.4235 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.4346, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4427, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4151, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target for today.




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is trying to trade higher this morning as the oil prices are rebounding.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6977 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7025, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7060 could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6895, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6850, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold reached a two-month high this morning.

    Gold needs to hold above 1104.44 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1123.00, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1099.99, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is making one more recovery attempt this morning.

    The commodity needs to break above 31.10 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 31.50, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.13 could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.13, being the commodity’s 1st pivot support of today.







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  6. #546

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.01.2016








    It is believed that the United States economy is in a process of recuperating and heading to a growth phase. Inflation according to the Federal Reserve is most likely to increase during the coming year. Or at least, deflationary pressures will wane as wage inflation begins to finally kick in and catch up with what have been encouraging employment numbers.

    Also, it could be assumed that Oil prices are close to bottoming out and this could begin to stimulate demand as businesses and the consumer takes advantage of cheap petroleum.

    This could eventually lead to the supply gap being finally closed and therefore, feed into the FOMC’s requirement which sees inflation approaching the 2% target and, in turn, see growth pick up.

    The head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen will still be concerned that incoming data will derail her plans that according to the dot plot will lead to four interest rate hikes in 2016.

    Yesterday Yellen received some good news with the Conference board publishing encourage Consumer Confidence data. There will be a further indication of the state of the US economy when on Friday when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the latest quarter on quarter GDP data.

    In light of the mixed data and with a market that simply does not believe the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned path for interest rates for the remainder of the year the issue of how Janet Yellen delivers the message becomes of paramount importance.

    The form is not good for the FOMC. Only back in September 2015, the Federal Reserve missed an opportunity to increase interest rates when the market expected this to happen.

    The overly dovish sentiment that Janet Yellen gave had the markets reappraising the state of the US economic outlook. The FOMC’s action caused a crisis of confidence amongst market participants.

    The FOMC wants to avoid what happen last autumn as any signs of weakness or regret would be interpreted that the Feds Fund rate increase in December may have been a mistake.

    Sticking to their guns and being committed to a view that their decision making is correct should be applauded, however, the jury is still out on the Federal Reserve’s handling of the great recession of 2008 and the fallout and effects that followed.

    Just like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Federal Reserve could have got their timing wrong and may need to give themselves some room for flexibility.

    Being wedded to a policy, come what may of 4 rate increases during 2016 could look very foolish if this leads to the US economy being dragged back down into a painful recession.

    The FOMC is hoping that the forthcoming data begins to stack up and is in line with their future dot plot for interest rates. However, it would seem prudent for the FOMC to make the market aware that there is room to manoeuvre if the carefully laid plans are derailed by the economic realities.








    EURUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0951

    Target 2: 1.0768

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 1.0875





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4465

    Target 2: 1.4212

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

    Daily control level: 1.4170




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 119.21

    Target 2: 117.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.10

    Daily control level: 117.60




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0252

    Target 2: 1.1008

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 1.0115



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4262

    Target 2: 1.3957

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0171

    Daily control level: 1.4335




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7097

    Target 2: 0.6944

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 0.6915




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1133.00

    Target 2: 1106.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.66

    Daily control level: 1109.00




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 32.49

    Target 2: 29.01

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.09

    Daily control level: 29.15






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  7. #547

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.01.2016







    The S&P 500 and Dow30 indices fell more than 1% on the release of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and statement.

    External crises, notably the issue of the ongoing Chinese contraction still weighs heavily on the markets. Furthermore, the markets have to deal with continuing worries about the direction of the price of crude Oil. There are fears that the move of WTI above the US$30.00 level will turn out to be a brief rally and that the downtrend will resume in short order.

    In its statement, the Federal moved from its previous position of being in a “wait and see mode” to one where it is “closely monitoring” economic developments. The Federal Reserve reiterated its modest shift in its stance by saying. “The committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labour market and inflation”.

    Although the statement was not as dovish as some market participants would have liked, its change of stance has gone some way to addressing the concerns of investors.

    Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Reserve have given a nod to investors that global financial and stability issues are being worked into its models for employment and inflation forecasting. However, the drop in the major equity indices would seem to indicate that the FOMC’s action was not enough.

    The fall in the indices could be seen as a market over-reaction as it is not obvious what the Federal Reserve could do at the moment other than telling the market that it is monitoring the developing situation from the sidelines and will be ready to act if necessary.

    What we did not get yesterday from the FOMC was a surprise increase in the Fed Funds rate. The strong US Dollar has restricted growth and exports and with GDP still below 2%, it was always a very unlikely that the Federal Reserve would move now.

    Yesterday’s statement portrays an FOMC that is frustrated by the lack of solid progress that is being made towards a the United States economic lift-off. These concerns will continue to keep the FOMC dependent on what it hopes is an improvement of incoming data.

    This could lead to the Federal Reserve playing out a repeat scenario of 2015 where the next interest rate increase when it does happen, will be delayed until the end of this year. This means that the 4 increase dot plot forecast goes out the window.











    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0966

    Target 2: 1.0812

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 1.0815





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4369

    Target 2: 1.4122

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 1.4170





    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 119.55

    Target 2: 117.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

    Daily control level: 117.95





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0230

    Target 2: 1.0086

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 1.0115






    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4246

    Target 2: 1.3945

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0172

    Daily control level: 1.4335




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7112

    Target 2: 0.6951

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 0.6915




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1132.00

    Target 2: 1110.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 14.41

    Daily control level: 1114.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 33.95

    Target 2: 30.12

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.14

    Daily control level: 30.00









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  8. #548

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29.01.2016







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD remains to range this morning, among the recently high market volatility.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0926 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0856, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0827, being the 2nd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0974, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.1004, which is the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of today.






    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new two-week high yesterday.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4332 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4271, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4155, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4433, which the 1st pivot resistance of today. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4474, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.







    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook


    USDJPY has breached the uptrend daily target, as BoJ decided to proceed with further monetary easing this morning and cut the interest rate further.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 118.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 122.00, which is the pair’s next psychological resistance point.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.00 support level.





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has once again bounced off the top of the downtrend channel after the pair reached a new two-month high yesterday.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0138 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0117, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0235, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0136, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. The extension further to 1.0101 could follow next.




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

    USDCAD needs to above 1.4032 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.4150, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4207, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3942, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has reached a new high of this year.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7071 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7172, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7223 could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7036, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is retracing from the two-month high.

    Gold needs to break below 1117.35 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1103.00, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension towards 1103.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1123.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold below 33.95 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 31.78, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.78, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.60, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection target.







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  9. #549

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 01.02.2016




    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0862 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0905, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1000, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0759, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD continues to range above the recently breached downtrend channel.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4379, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4115, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY continues to trade higher, following the BoJ decision to raise the interest rate last Friday.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 122.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 122.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.63, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0203 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0286, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0327, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0164, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

    USDCAD needs to above 1.4014 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.4145, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4213, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3920, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is retracing after the pair reached a new high of this year last Friday.

    AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7093 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7144, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7176 could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7010, being the 2nd pivot support of today.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is aiming to retest the two-month high.

    Gold needs to hold above 1114.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1129.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1131.57, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1109.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

    The commodity needs to break above 34.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 35.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 36.01, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 32.59, being the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level of today.





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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 02.02.2016








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel once again, continuing the ranging pattern for the third week in a row.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0870 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0976, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1026, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0824, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily downtrend channel this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4268 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4151, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4528, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is retracing from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.

    USDJPY needs to break above 121.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 121.55, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.84, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 119.83, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0200 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0261, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0295, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0151, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

    USDCAD needs to above 1.3971 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.4116, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4190, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3882, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is retesting the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel.

    AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7091 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7091, being the Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7165, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7013, being the 2nd pivot support of today.




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is aiming to retracing from a two-month high, which the metal reached this morning.

    Gold needs to hold below 1124.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1115.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1109.78, which the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1139.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel yesterday.

    The commodity needs to hold below 32.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 30.61, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 29.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today.






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