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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #551

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 03.02.2016.








    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD continues to trade higher after the pair bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel on Monday. The range pattern, nevertheless still remains at place.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.013 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0969, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1002, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today and also coinciding with 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0843, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD is making aa new three-month high this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4393 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4544, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4579, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.





    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday. In addition, the pair has also breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 120.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 118.74, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 118.30, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Pivot Point level of today.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has bounced off the top of the upward trend channel.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0191 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0136, being the 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0108, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.0214, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

    USDCAD needs to below 1.4023 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3966, being the 1st pivot support level of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3925, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4110, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel. The pair is currently trying to reconfirm the breach.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7066 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7004, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6947, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7104, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today





    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is remaining to concentrate at the two-month high, which it reached at the beginning of this week.

    Gold needs to hold above 1127.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1136.00, being today’s 2nd pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1139.00, which the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1115.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.






    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is recovering after it has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel on Monday.

    The commodity needs to hold above 31.16 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 32.91, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.81, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.20, being the 2nd pivot support of today.








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  2. #552

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.02.2016



    Bank of England rate decision day

    Later today, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. There seems a little possibility that rates will be increased today. In fact, recent comments by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Mark Carney have been dovish and market friendly.

    Mr Carney has sighted the pessimistic growth global outlook, the collapse in commodity prices and less than encouraging wage and consumer inflation as reasons to put off increasing interest rates in 2016.

    Far from being convinced of the inevitability of a rate increase happening once data begins to improve, some market commentators are now openly talking up the merits of the Bank of England reversing course and reducing the Official Bank Rate from its present level of 0.50%.

    In today’s Super Thursday statements, the markets will be looking for a change in the mood of the Bank of England’s commentary. Will Mr Mark Carney now move to downgrading the previous projections for wages, employment and inflation? Furthermore, will we see a seismic shock as the markets have to deal with one or more members of the Monetary Policy Committee shifting their stance from hold to negative on interest rates?

    The Bank of England does have some room to manoeuvre as the current overnight rate in relative terms is high when compared to say, Eurozone, Japanese, and Swiss interest rates. Therefore, the Bank of England has some way to go before it even has to contemplate moving towards negative rates.

    The question however is, will cutting an already low level of interest rates had any real effect other than stoking the fire under the housing bubble. Japanese business has enjoyed low levels of interest cost for a considerable time without any noticeable change investment.

    Fiscal measures could be reintroduced as was the case during the great recession of 2008. However, the massive stimulus programmes that were initiated by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England have not brought the expected results.

    The central banks of the world are fast running out of tools which they can use to stimulate their economies. A race to the bottom in a currency war is not a real solution.

    It would appear that the coming months will be pivotal for Mr Carney and his counterparts at the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. The time is ripe for better solutions rather than more of the same. The problem for the decision makers is that there are no obvious alternatives.





    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1171

    Target 2: 1.1014

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.0900



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4732

    Target 2: 1.4436

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158

    Daily control level: 1.4370



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 119.01

    Target 2: 116.85

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29

    Daily control level: 120.15



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0234

    Target 2: 0.9981

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 1.0197



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3915

    Target 2: 1.3599

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0187

    Daily control level: 1.4110



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7261

    Target 2: 0.7081

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

    Daily control level: 0.7000



    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1153.00

    Target 2: 1130.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 12.49

    Daily control level: 1121.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 33.50

    Target 2: 30.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.36

    Daily control level: 34.50








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  3. #553

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.02.2016







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD shot higher for the second consecutive day. Due to the NFP release the volatility is expected to be high this afternoon.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1170 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1289, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. the 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1442, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1000, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support level of today.





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD is retracing from a three-week high, which the pair reached yesterday.

    GBPUSD needs to break above 1.4594 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4715, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4798, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4426, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 117.17 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 115.60, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.40, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support level, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.88, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF declined lower after it reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel yesterday.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9974 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.98521, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9820, which is the 2nd pivot support level of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.00027, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD continues to plunge after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

    USDCAD needs to below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3570, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3503, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3906, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7197 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7275, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7333, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7108, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold shot to a three-month high as the USD Dollar weakened further.

    Gold needs to hold above 1150.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1166.00, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1179.73, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1143.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold below 32.26 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 32.01, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.54, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.12, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today








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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08-02-2016






    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning EURUSD has traded in a volatile manner as the price action attempts to break out and break down from its opening days range.

    The Daily Pivot at the 1.1170 levels has so far offered strong resistance to further upside momentum.

    We are this afternoon monitoring a continuation of the move towards S1 at the 1.1088 level.

    However, EURUSD first needs to breach the current price structure of the upward pointing Linear Regression Channel



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning GBPUSD initial attempted to break higher from its opening range as the price action traded above its Daily Pivot level at the 1.4509 level.

    However, the progression towards the R1 at the 1.4567 did not materialize.

    Subsequently, GBPUSD has traded lower as the price action broke back down through the Daily Pivot and sliced through S1 at the 1.4428 level.

    This afternoon, we are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower towards the S2 that is found at 1.4370 level.




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning USDJPY traded higher from the get-go as it moved away from the Daily Pivot level of 116.83.

    However, USDJPY found strong resistance at the R1 which is at the 117.39.

    Subsequently, USDJPY has reversed course and is now trading under the Daily Pivot.

    This afternoon we are monitoring the price action for a possible test of S1 which is found at the 116.24 level.



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning USDCHF has traded around the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.9921 level.

    Presently, USDCHF is now testing the R1 at the 0.9962 level and the upper level of the downward sloping linear regression channel.

    This afternoon, I am monitoring USDCHF for a continuation of the move towards the 1.0000 significant number which also coincides with today’s Average True Range projection.



    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning USDCAD has traded in a small range with the price action initially testing the Daily Pivot that is found at the 1.3847 level,

    I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher.

    A breach of the downward sloping linear regression channel could see USDCAD test R1 at is found at the 1.3985 level.



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning AUDUSD broke above its opening range bit was not able to sustain a move above the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.7111 level.

    We are however monitoring the price action for a further test of the Daily Pivot as the downward correction failed to trade beneath prior swing lows at the 0.7073 and 0.7052 levels.





    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold this morning found significant support at the daily Pivot that is located at the 1164.00 level.

    The price action has subsequently traded higher as Gold has moved above from the prior day’s high at the 1174.00 level.

    I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a test of R1 at the 1183.00 level.




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning Oil attempted to break higher from its opening range but stiff resistance at the Daily Pivot which is found at the 31.30 level repelled this attempt.

    Subsequently, Oil has traded lower as the price action broke under S1 at the 30.25 level.

    This afternoon, we are monitoring Oil for a possible attempt of S2 that is found at the 29.53 level.








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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.02.2016






    Today at 3:00 PM London time, the Federal Reserve, Chairwoman, Mrs Janet Yellen will give testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

    This hearing takes place during uncertain times for both the financial markets and world economy. On Monday, the news that CreditSights In., had questioned the German banking colossus, Deutsche Bank’s ability to pay up on its bond obligations in 2017. This report helped to contribute to a meltdown in global indices values.

    Although the senior management of Deutsche Bank was quick to issue statements that denied this analyst report, the damage had already been done. The news that highlighted the potential woes of a bank that is so key to Germany’s and Europe economic future has now put the spotlight back on Europe’s financial system.

    The idea that we are about to revisit the dark days of 2008/2009 is a worrying spectre. Especially as confidence in Europe’s periphery is still fragile as Greece and Portugal once again returning back to the media and market spotlight.

    Italy continues to struggle as it tries to break from the stranglehold of a deep recession and the move back into patchy growth. We do have news shortly from Istat which will publish the latest Italian Industrial Production number. However, following yesterday’s horrid publication by Destatis on German Industrial Production, the head of the European Central Bank will be looking over his shoulder and will be hoping for some positive news from his homeland.

    Back to this afternoon’s event in Washington, Janet Yellen has the decision to take on the tone of the testimony. The FOMC has two key mandates which are to ensure price stability and a healthy employment outlook. Although the to-and-throw of short-term movements in the financial markets should not be of a concern, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman could address this subject during today’s key speech.

    Of course, a shift to a dovish tone would undoubtedly go some way in giving comfort to investors who have seen the value of their equity holdings shrink since the beginning of 2016. Especially as the falls in equity value is highlighting the strain within the global banking system.

    During today’s testimony, the market will be listening to the weighting that is given to the two key FOMC mandates. If Mrs Yellen sticks to the hawkish line that the labour market is strong and that economic weakness being a short-term phenomenon, them one could expect to see a continued move lower in equity values and the US Dollar gathering some respite.

    However, according to market pricing the probability of the Federal Reserve dot plot that has forecast four rate increases during 2016 will just not happen. It would seem that the Federal Reserve will be lucky if it can force one rate hike in December. For sure March interest rate increase looks like it is off the table.

    To end, the Italian Industrial Production number has just been reported as -0.7%. The forecast was for an improvement to 0.3%.








    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1400

    Target 2: 1.1180

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

    Daily control level: 1.1160






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4630

    Target 2: 1.4315

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0160

    Daily control level: 1.4370






    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 116.55

    Target 2: 113.65

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

    Daily control level: 115.60




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9825

    Target 2: 0.9620

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 0.9980




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4040

    Target 2: 1.3690

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0176

    Daily control level: 1.3980





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7140

    Target 2: 0.6995

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

    Daily control level: 0.6970




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1204.00

    Target 2: 1178.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 15.79

    Daily control level: 1185.75



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 30.00

    Target 2: 27.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37

    Daily control level: 30.75







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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.02.2016







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD is trading higher this morning as the US dollar is weakening.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1400, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1498, being 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1170, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to break below 1.4515 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4360, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4318, which is the 3rd pivot support, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4585, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has breached the Daily Average True range downside target this morning, as the pair has reached a new one-year low.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 113.89 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 110.41, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.00, which is the pair’s next major psychological support level, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.89, which is the Pivot Point of today.



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF declined to a new two-month low this morning.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9753 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9630, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9578, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9753, being the Pivot Point of today.




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has recovered slightly this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3914 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.4100, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3140, which is the 3rd pivot intermediate resistance level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3829, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is declining lower this morning, after it proved unsuccessful to return trading within the upward trend channel.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6990, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6958, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7133, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold shot to a new six-month high this morning.

    Gold needs to hold above 1191.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1132.00, being the pair’s next long term pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1255.00, could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1191.91, which is the metal’s Daily Pivot Point level of today.



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price has declined to a new three-week low this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold below 29.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 27.91, being the 2nd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 27.01, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 30.31, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.





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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 12.02.2016









    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1323 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.1200, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1168, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1440, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today




    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4473 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4640, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4744, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4384, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is consolidating this morning, after the pair has reached a new one-year low yesterday.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 112.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 111.00, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 109.71, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support level, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 114.00, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF has slightly recovered after the pair reached a new two-month low yesterday.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9714 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 0.9830, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9870, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9667, being the 1st pivot support of today.




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD continues to range this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3944 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3811, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3760, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4006, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD is continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7080 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7215, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7000, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level together with a strong psycological support.




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold shot to a one-year high as market uncertainty persists.

    Gold needs to hold above 1234.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1267.00, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1275.00, could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1225.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is rebounding from a three-week low this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold above 29.19 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 30.53, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.02, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 28.70, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.









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  8. #558

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.02.2016









    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel on Friday.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1266 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.1111, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1080, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1266, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has once again bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4504 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4565, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4657, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4377, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend channel as the pair is recovering from last week’s one-year low.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 112.80 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 115.07, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 115.82, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.80, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair.




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF continues to recover after the pair breached the bottom of the downtrend channel last thursday.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9755 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 0.9878, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9900.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9755, being the Pivot Point of today.





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is retesting the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3874 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3722, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3679, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3935, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7100 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7208, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7100, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





    GOLD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold continues to decline after the metal reached one-year high last week.

    Gold needs to hold below 1239.00 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial upside target is 1200.00, being the pair’s next psychological support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1180.00, could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1239.30, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price continues to strengthen this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold above 30.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 32.99, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.32, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.82, being the 1st pivot support level of today.







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  9. #559

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.02.2016




    News that the Russian and Saudi Oil Ministers have agreed to hold talks about cutting Oil production later today has sent Light Sweet Crude rallying above the US$31.00 per barrels in early morning trading.

    Today’s talks are due to take place in Doha and have been brokered by the Qatari Oil Minister. This closed door event should resemble a poker match between two evenly matched and very competitive players as both participants will do what they can to minimise concessions.

    That the Venezuelan Oil Minister will also be in attendance could be positive in pushing the talks to a successive outcome. Venezuela has suffered more than most from the collapse in the price of crude as the Government of this Latin American country struggles to maintain budget obligations. Therefore, it is in its interest to push a deal through.

    Although there has been talk of a deal before, this appears to be the first serious meeting between the world’s big two oil producers. The timing of this meeting comes at a crucial juncture in Middle East politics with events in Syria threatening to redraw the geostrategic map.

    The Russian military involvement in Syria and a Saudi Arabian threat to intervene military opens up the spectre of an armed clash between these two countries. Therefore, it is rather fortuitous that both the Governments have decided to open up a channel of communication.

    The Saudi Government may feel that as it holds the strongest hand might decide that it does not want to comprise by cutting its own production. The Russians, however, have technical issues that restrict its ability cut oil production as the harsh Siberian climate could lead to wells being lost.

    An agreement to introduce production quotas will need the Saudi’s to move away from their current policy that requires all producers agree on crude production limits. However with Iran now freed from international sanctions the prospect of increased production from this country will make the likelihood of reaching an agreement a difficult undertaking.





    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1280

    Target 2: 1.1025

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

    Daily control level: 1.1270





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4595

    Target 2: 1.4270

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0162

    Daily control level: 1.4530




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 116.30

    Target 2: 112.85

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74

    Daily control level: 111.60




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9980

    Target 2: 0.9755

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

    Daily control level: 0.9720





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4000

    Target 2: 1.3670

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0165

    Daily control level: 1.3850




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7280

    Target 2: 0.7070

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 0.7125





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1230.00

    Target 2: 1185.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 22.89

    Daily control level: 1245.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 32.00

    Target 2: 28.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13

    Daily control level: 29.00











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  10. #560

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.02.2016





    The US, Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will today publish the much anticipated minutes of its last meeting.

    These minutes are a detailed account of last Federal Reserve meeting. As such, this publication provides to market participants and financial media some colour on the backdrop of the meeting. These minutes allows traders to gain insights on how individual FOMC members are positioned with respect to interest rates as we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting that takes place in March.

    We expect that this publication will portray rather balanced tone were the bias for tightening is limited by the current uncertainty that has gripped the market.

    The minutes of the December meeting presented a united picture in terms of how the committee members unanimously voted for a rate increase. However, some members of the FOMC did voice concerns that this decision to hike the Fed Funds rate may have been premature.

    Market volatility is bound to increase just prior and during the publication. However, what will be of interest will be to see if the dissenting voices within the Federal Reserve are getting stronger and if other members of the committee who previously backed Decembers rate increase now appear to be regretting their decision.







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1270

    Target 2: 1.1015

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

    Daily control level: 1.1190




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4470

    Target 2: 1.4135

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0166

    Daily control level: 1.4515




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 115.90

    Target 2: 112.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80

    Daily control level: 114.90



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.9995

    Target 2: 0.9775

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

    Daily control level: 0.9845




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4025

    Target 2: 1.3700

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0164

    Daily control level: 1.3705




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7210

    Target 2: 0.7010

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 0.7120




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1224.00

    Target 2: 1177.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 23.42

    Daily control level: 1217.55



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 31.00

    Target 2: 27.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.06

    Daily control level: 31.50






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