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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #561

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.02.2016


    Yesterday, the Unite States, Federal Reserve published the minutes of January’s interest rate decision.

    It was expected that the FOMC would take into account the events since the December interest rate rise and this was what the message the markets received.

    The FOMC minutes, on the whole, gave us no surprises with the transcripts being more or less in line with last week’s testimony by the Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee.

    Fed Officials saw the events since December have increased the Downside risk. The inflation outlook remained uncertain and external factors are a continued source of concern with the confusing situation in China hindering the FOMC’s policy decision making.

    Furthermore, the FOMC Expect inflation to be lower for a long time due to the depressed price of crude oil. The FOMC was of the opinion that oil and an improvement in the US economy could help bring inflation back to target but was not sure how long the downside risks will last for.

    The strength of the US Dollar was discussed and according to the minutes with concerns that the Green Backs inflated value would hinder a recovery in the manufacturing sector.

    Of all the concerns the FOMC highlighted the high volatility in the financial markets as the biggest issue and could lead to an amplification of the downside risks.

    The Federal Reserved based the December increase on data that indicated that the job market is strong and that the expectation that inflation will increase.

    The landscape since the December rate hike has changed dramatically. What is certain is that the FOMC would not have moved to increase interest rates in December if these events had happened in November.

    The minutes portrayed an FOMC that is not only data dependent but also unsure of the trend of the data.

    This leads us nicely to the forecasts made by the Federal Reserve which according to their now discredited dot plot predicted that there will be four interest rate increases in 2016. Although the FOMC have not admitted defeat, the dot plot is no longer being mentioned and the idea that the FOMC will abide by their prediction has been priced out by the market.

    As if history is about to repeat itself and very much like the back end of 2015 the market has increased the odd of a December increase.

    Such a move will only happen if the data fits.








    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1245

    Target 2: 1.1005

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

    Daily control level: 1.1180



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4450

    Target 2: 1.4140

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154

    Daily control level: 1.4340



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 115.65

    Target 2: 112.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.64

    Daily control level: 114.85



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0030

    Target 2: 0.9815

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

    Daily control level: 0.9845




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3840

    Target 2: 1.3505

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0169

    Daily control level: 1.3910



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7280

    Target 2: 0.7100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 0.7080




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1232.00

    Target 2: 1185.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 23.36

    Daily control level: 1217.55




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 31.00

    Target 2: 27.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13

    Daily control level: 31.50










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  2. #562

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.02.2016


    This morning, the British Prime Minister, Mr David Cameron will hold intensive meetings with other European Union leaders.

    The discussions have been portrayed as a high-stakes meeting which will define not only Britain’s relationship with the European Union but also the success or failure of the whole European project.

    Mr Cameron has to return from the meetings with an agreement that he can be presented to the right of the Conservative Party and also to a British public that is becoming increasingly dissolution by the European Union.

    The British Prime Minister has focussed on two main areas which he feels concessions can be extracted from the UK’s European partners.

    These being the explosive subject of migrant welfare and the protection of the City of London’s dominance as a global centre for finance.

    The whole European Union Migrant issues is a very popular story with the British tabloid press. However, in reality, the cost to the British taxpayer is negligible. Migration from countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have benefited the country as young and enthusiastic new citizens have integrated into the fabric of the country and have contributed to the economy.

    Mr Cameron, however, wants concessions which will appease Conservative voters who have been enticed the message that is being delivered from UKIP that anything and everything European is bad for Britain.

    A deal on migration will probably be fudged through but this will be much to the annoyance of Eastern European leaders who will argue that a deal to limit welfare payments to their former citizens will go against the ethos of the European Union’s project.

    On the question of over regulation of the City of London’s financial institutions, there does need to be a review of the current legislation so as to ensure it is fit for purpose. However, it has only been eight years since we had a financial meltdown that was caused in part by a lack of regulation. Therefore, it is difficult to see the British Prime Minister getting his own way and to a degree, we should be thankful that the big financial institutions are not allowed to do as they please.

    London’s role as a global financial centre will only grow over the coming years. Attempts by Paris and Frankfurt to rest the crown from the City have failed due to London’s attractive cocktail of skilled labour and lifestyle choices. London will survive an exit from the European Union but Frankfurt and Paris will once more try to challenge the old lady’s preeminent position.

    The European Union and Britain need each other. The UK and the Union are massive trading partners and their economies and financial systems are just too integrated for a Brexit to even be contemplated.

    The discussion about Brexit needs to be expanded as there is a need for an agenda to be put together which looks at reforming the European Union. It is hoped that today’s discussions are just the beginning of a thorough and comprehensive EU-wide reform process.











    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1225

    Target 2: 1.0990

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

    Daily control level: 1.1180



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4480

    Target 2: 1.4190

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148

    Daily control level: 1.4395




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 114.90

    Target 2: 111.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.67

    Daily control level: 114.50



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0035

    Target 2: 0.9820

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

    Daily control level: 0.9845



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3800

    Target 2: 1.3675

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0167

    Daily control level: 1.3910



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7260

    Target 2: 0.7055

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

    Daily control level: 0.7080




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1256.00

    Target 2: 1205.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 23.30

    Daily control level: 1200.00



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 32.50

    Target 2: 28.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 2.04

    Daily control level: 28.65








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  3. #563

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.02.2016






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has resumed the downward trend after the last week’s consolidation

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1110 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.1037, which is the 2nd pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0990, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1155, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD plummeted this morning, as the concerns over the potential exit of Britain from the EU worries investors. At the moment, the pair is retesting the bottom of the newly created downtrend channel.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4353 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.4095, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4050, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4353, being the Pivot Point of today.



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is trading higher this morning, with the likely intention to retest the top of the downward trend channel.

    USDJPY needs to hold above 112.76 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial upside target is 113.82, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.20, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.15, which is today’s 1st pivot support level of the pair together with the previous low of the pair.



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is trading higher this morning, after the pair broke a short-term uptrend channel last Friday.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9917 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.0000, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today together with the pair’s major resistance level. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0027, which is the 3rd pivot resistance of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9892, being the 1st intermediate pivot support of today.



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has once again breached the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3774 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.3671, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3605, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3836, being the 1st pivot resistance of today.



    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD returned to trade within the uptrend channel limits this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7125 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7220, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7125, being the pair’s pivot point of today.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning, signalling a move lower might be ahead.

    Gold needs to hold below 1226.63 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1199.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1190.00, could occur next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1226.63, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price continues to recover this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold above 32.24 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 34.08, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 34.61, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 31.37, being 1st pivot support level of today.









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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.02.2016






    This morning 9:00 AM London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.

    This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.

    The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.

    Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.

    The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.

    Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.

    The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.

    The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight decrease to 107.0, as compared to the previous number of 107.3.

    A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.

    The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.

    As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly.







    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1140

    Target 2: 1.0915

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

    Daily control level: 1.1140





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4305

    Target 2: 1.3990

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158

    Daily control level: 1.4405




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 114.40

    Target 2: 111.30

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

    Daily control level: 113.40






    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0100

    Target 2: 0.9890

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

    Daily control level: 0.9885





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3955

    Target 2: 1.3550

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

    Daily control level: 1.3845





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7320

    Target 2: 0.7130

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.7065



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1235.00

    Target 2: 1182.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 26.52

    Daily control level: 1234.00





    OIL






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 35.20

    Target 2: 31.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90

    Daily control level: 31.35






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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.02.2016










    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD reached a new three-week low this morning.

    EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1019 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.0956, which is the 1st pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0915, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1019, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has reached a seven-month low this morning.

    GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4061 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 1.3860, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.3800, which is the next key level, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4061, being the Pivot Point of today.




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY is consolidating under the recently breached short-term uptrend channel.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 112.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 111.02, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.60, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.83, which is the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is consolidating around the daily pivot point in indecision.

    USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9935 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 0.9976, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance and also coinciding with the previous high. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0041, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9871, being the 1st pivot support of today.



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is consolidating under the recently breached daily uptrend channel.

    USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3768 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside aim is 1.3895, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3641, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has once again breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7219 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7120, being the 3rd pivot support of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7105, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7219, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is retesting to return within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.

    Gold needs to hold above 1220.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1250.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1254.31, could develop next.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1212.21, which is the metal’s 1st pivot support of today.




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil price is plummeting, as one more meeting between oil-producing countries failed to reach an agreement.

    The commodity needs to hold below 32.36 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

    The initial downside target is 30.90, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.09, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.17, being 1st pivot resistance level of today.









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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.02.2016






    The British Prime Minister David Cameron is prepared to engage the Bank of England in order to keep Britain in the European Union. According to his speech on Tuesday, the policymakers “will make sure that the Treasury and the Bank of England and other authoritative organisations set out the facts, set out the figures so people can make a judgment.”

    In the meantime, the pound continues to weaken against its major counterparts, with the GBPUSD hitting a new seven-year low yesterday afternoon and trading below 1.3900 marks.

    Mark Carney, the BoE Governor, is ready to loosen the monetary policy, saying that the Bank is open to the interest rate cuts and extending a bond-buying programme if required. Even though the slowdown in the global economy has not yet significantly affected the UK growth. He also emphasized his view that the local interest rates will be unlikely to be raised from the record low of 0.5% over the next three years.

    Second Estimate UK GDP data release will open this morning at 9:30 am London time. The change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services within the country is expected to remain unaltered from the last quarter at 0.5%. Provided the release will not show significant deviations from the forecast, this event is unlikely to significantly affect the British Pound.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1110

    Target 2: 1.0910

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

    Daily control level: 1.1050




    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4180

    Target 2: 1.3765

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0159

    Daily control level: 1.4405



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 113.65

    Target 2: 110.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.50

    Daily control level: 113.40




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9980

    Target 2: 0.9790

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 0.9950




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3800

    Target 2: 1.3675

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

    Daily control level: 1.3660




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7280

    Target 2: 0.7110

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.7065






    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1254.00

    Target 2: 1200.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 26.77

    Daily control level: 1201.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 34.00

    Target 2: 30.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.98

    Daily control level: 33.50







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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.02.2016




    The main event for today will be a G20 summit held in Shanghai, where leaders will gather to discuss means to support the sluggish global economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it is imperative to speed up existing structural reforms and use more effectively fiscal and monetary measures in order to attain that.

    “Global growth prospects remain clouded in the near term, with emerging-market economies losing steam, world trade slowing down and the recovery in advanced economies being dragged down by persistently weak investment,” the OECD said, as it urged the leaders to deal with these conditions.

    The OECD’s mission is to monitor reforms within G20 countries in order to achieve an earlier set of goals of increasing global economic growth by 2% until 2018. In order to do that, more than 800 reforms were introduced since 2014, however, their implementation still remains delayed.

    Concerns regarding developments in China is also expected to take a priority in G20 discussions. The world’s second-largest economy has reported a growth of 6.9% for 2015, which was the country’s weakest in last 25 years.

    On the over hand, Germany has shown a strong opposition to proposed loosening of the current fiscal stimulus programme. Wolfgang Schaeuble, at a meeting with his counterparts before the summit, warned that space for further monetary easing is exhausted and using additional debt to boost a growth will lead to “zombifying” of economies.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1110

    Target 2: 1.0920

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.0980



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4110

    Target 2: 1.3805

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

    Daily control level: 1.4405



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 114.40

    Target 2: 110.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

    Daily control level: 113.40





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9950

    Target 2: 0.9810

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 0.9950




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3675

    Target 2: 1.3375

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

    Daily control level: 1.3735



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7320

    Target 2: 0.7145

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7145




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1257.00

    Target 2: 1207.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 25.19

    Daily control level: 1220.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 35.00

    Target 2: 31.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.99

    Daily control level: 31.00






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  8. #568

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.02.2016




    The main event for today will be a G20 summit held in Shanghai, where leaders will gather to discuss means to support the sluggish global economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it is imperative to speed up existing structural reforms and use more effectively fiscal and monetary measures in order to attain that.

    “Global growth prospects remain clouded in the near term, with emerging-market economies losing steam, world trade slowing down and the recovery in advanced economies being dragged down by persistently weak investment,” the OECD said, as it urged the leaders to deal with these conditions.

    The OECD’s mission is to monitor reforms within G20 countries in order to achieve an earlier set of goals of increasing global economic growth by 2% until 2018. In order to do that, more than 800 reforms were introduced since 2014, however, their implementation still remains delayed.

    Concerns regarding developments in China is also expected to take a priority in G20 discussions. The world’s second-largest economy has reported a growth of 6.9% for 2015, which was the country’s weakest in last 25 years.

    On the over hand, Germany has shown a strong opposition to proposed loosening of the current fiscal stimulus programme. Wolfgang Schaeuble, at a meeting with his counterparts before the summit, warned that space for further monetary easing is exhausted and using additional debt to boost a growth will lead to “zombifying” of economies.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1110

    Target 2: 1.0920

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

    Daily control level: 1.0980



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4110

    Target 2: 1.3805

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

    Daily control level: 1.4405



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 114.40

    Target 2: 110.60

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

    Daily control level: 113.40





    USDCHF





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9950

    Target 2: 0.9810

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

    Daily control level: 0.9950




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3675

    Target 2: 1.3375

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

    Daily control level: 1.3735



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7320

    Target 2: 0.7145

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7145




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1257.00

    Target 2: 1207.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 25.19

    Daily control level: 1220.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 35.00

    Target 2: 31.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.99

    Daily control level: 31.00






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  9. #569

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.02.2016




    Today’s trading session is promising to be quiet in regards of economic releases. Nevertheless, investors are awaiting some important events this week.

    On Friday, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will deliver the employment set of data which will highlight the current labour market conditions. This time, the market consensus expects the number of employed people during the previous month to increase to 195.000 from 151.000 of January.

    Average Hourly Earnings data though is predicted to slide lower to 0.2% this month in comparison to 0.5% of the last release. Lastly, the Unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unaltered at 4.9%.

    Tomorrow’s session is promising to be quite busy with the economic forecasts. Firstly, the data on Chinese Manufacturing Sector will be released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The official PMI data is not expected to change and remain at 48.4 level, whereas Caixin survey, later on, is awaiting a slight drop to 48.2 from 48.4 of a month ago.

    Following that, the Reserve Bank of Australia data will capture the attention of traders. The majority of economists do not expect any changes in the monetary policy of the institution. However, the rate statement will likely to give some hints regarding the future economic outlook together with the commentary regarding the current economic conditions.

    This Tuesday’s afternoon, the major data event is the US ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index release. The data is expected to improve to 48.6 this time, nevertheless remaining in the contraction zone below 50.0 level.






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1004

    Target 2: 1.0815

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 1.1070






    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4010

    Target 2: 1.3700

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155

    Daily control level: 1.4050




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 115.35

    Target 2: 112.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43

    Daily control level: 111.00



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0060

    Target 2: 0.9885

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 1.0100



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3655

    Target 2: 1.3370

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0143

    Daily control level: 1.3735





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7210

    Target 2: 0.7030

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7145




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1248.00

    Target 2: 1195.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 26.60

    Daily control level: 1244.00




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 34.65

    Target 2: 30.75

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94

    Daily control level: 30.75





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  10. #570

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    ACFX SPECIAL REPORT – TURKEY




    The Turkish economy has experienced a minor miracle in recent years. This country’s economy has risen like a phoenix from the debt crisis of the late 1990’s. The transformation has turned Turkey into a regional industrial powerhouse.

    Economic growth and prosperity have brought Turkey an enhanced status on the international stage. The benefits to Turkey such as cementing itself as a member of the exclusive club of G-20 nations and a greater in international negotiations.

    A strong and growing economy brings with it a greater confidence. The Turkish Government has been able to flex its muscles as it looks to protect its economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East region.

    Unfortunately, this brought the Turkish Government into direct political conflict with the goals of the Russian Federation.The cost to the Turkish economy has been damaging as sanctions imposed by the administration of Vladimir Putin’s Russian Government is expected to be in the region of US Dollar 9 billion per year.

    The sanctions that have been imposed by the Russian Government could not have come at a more unfortunate time. Emerging nations such as Turkey have benefited from an extended period of low US interest rates.

    The US Federal Reserve has committed itself to increasing interest rates during 2016. The prospect of higher yields received from investments in US debt has resulted in capital flowing away from Emerging Market nations such as Turkey.

    The uncertainty that has shown itself in the forex markets as investors have reduced their exposure to the Lira and bought the US Dollar. However, the weakness in the Lira can be traced back to July 2011. From a monthly aspect, USDTRL at this period was trending in an uptrend with the price-action moving above the support of the cloud and the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen.






    MONTHLY CHART



    The weekly time frame demonstrates the importance of using a top-down approach when one tries to analyze the markets. Although an Ichimoku Kinko-Hyo strategy should allow a trader to focus on the one-time frame, it can be seen that breaches beneath the cloud have offered buying and not shorting opportunities. In fact, it can be seen that corrective moves down to both the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have opportunities to buy the US Dollar and sell the Lira. Although I would like to stress that these trends are intact until they end.


    WEEKLY CHART



    The daily time frame has allowed investors to jump on the trading opportunity in the direction of the higher monthly and weekly time window. At the moment, however, USDTRL is currently trading within the cloud congestion area, and the Chikou Span is not giving any clear directional signals. Traders of the USDTRL would now be waiting for a move above the cloud, and the 3.0050 level as this could be sufficient for the Chikou Span could confirm resumption of an upside breakout.


    DAILY CHART


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