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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #571

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.03.2016




    The Reserve Bank of Australia held the interest rate unchanged at 2% level, as expected. However, markets price in the probability that at least two cuts within 2016 will take place.

    The RBA in its policy statement this morning reiterated that persistently low levels of inflation could be a base for the consequent monetary policy easing. The inflation is expected to be low for the next two years, with very low levels of oil price adding to that pressure.

    The Australian job market also remains a concern to the policymakers as the global economic slowdown is affecting the state of the country’s economy. Tomorrow’s quarterly GDP release is expected to add a further light to the country’s outlook.

    Australian Dollar rallied higher on the news, recovering from a week low with AUDUSD reaching 0.7162 this morning.

    The rest of this trading day will concentrate on Purchasing Managers indices released in UK and US, the leading indicator of the economic health in these countries.

    The British Manufacturing PMI figure is released by Markit at 9:30 am London time. Investors awaiting a decline to 52.3 this time, down from 52.9 figure announced in February.

    The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 3:00 pm this afternoon, with the US data still expected to remain in contraction zone at 48.2, which is the case since last November. A volatility of the USD pairs should be expected during the time of release.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0960

    Target 2: 1.0780

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 1.0965




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4070

    Target 2: 1.3760

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154

    Daily control level: 1.3830



    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 114.00

    Target 2: 111.35

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.33

    Daily control level: 114.10





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0065

    Target 2: 0.9895

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.9945




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3675

    Target 2: 1.3400

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138

    Daily control level: 1.3735





    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7230

    Target 2: 0.7050

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7170






    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1265.00

    Target 2: 1211.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 27.18

    Daily control level: 1210.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 35.80

    Target 2: 32.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94

    Daily control level: 32.25






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  2. #572

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.03.2016



    Moody’s Investors Service has lowered the China’s government credit rating outlook from stable to negative, according to the agency’s publication this morning. The long-term primary unsecured debt rating and issuer’s other ratings are affirmed at ‘Aa3′.

    The main factors to proceed with the revision of the forecast were the deterioration in the country’s financial performance and weak prospects for their further improvement, reflected in the increasing government debt and rising contingent liabilities.

    The enduring fall in the country’s reserves due to the outflow of capital could likely deteriorate the country’s external strength. Even though the Chinese reserves still remain of a massive size of US$ 3.2 billion, they have decreased by US$ 762 billion since the peak in June 2014.

    Investor’s uncertainty regarding the authorities’ ability to carry out reforms to address imbalances in the economy, according to the agency, also remains of concern.

    Besides, the current fiscal and monetary policy provisions to reach 6.5% growth target are feared to slow the implementation of the necessary reforms, undermining the strength of the Chinese institutions, hence weakening their credibility.

    Nonetheless, the current rating remained unchanged as a large size of the country contributes to its credit potency. ”Although GDP growth is slowing, it will remain markedly higher than most of China’s rating peers. The size of the buffers available to face current fiscal and capital outflow challenges allows for a gradual implementation of reform and therefore supports an affirmation of the rating at Aa3”, the agency reports.










    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0950

    Target 2: 1.0780

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 1.0860



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4100

    Target 2: 1.3800

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

    Daily control level: 1.3895



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 115.25

    Target 2: 112.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.28

    Daily control level: 112.00



    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0055

    Target 2: 0.9885

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.9945


    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3545

    Target 2: 1.3270

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0139

    Daily control level: 1.3595



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7255

    Target 2: 0.7090

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.7115



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1255.00

    Target 2: 1207.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69

    Daily control level: 1210.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 35.75

    Target 2: 31.95

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.92

    Daily control level: 33.30







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  3. #573

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.03.2016




    There is a view spreading among traders that the fall in oil prices, which started in the middle of 2014, might have bottomed out as production is slowing down and the demand remains strong.

    This morning oil prices continued to show growth as investors are confident that the near future demand for raw materials will increase. The Brent oil reached US$ 37.47 high, and WTI surged to US$ 35.92 last afternoon according to the trading data.

    Nevertheless, most analysts do not expect a sharp rise in the oil prices anytime soon, as the supply continues to exceed the demand, and the global stocks of the raw material are increasing with the unsold commodity.

    According to estimates, around 1 to 2 million barrels above average demand are currently produced on the daily basis. In addition, some experts believe that the recent attempt of the non-OPEC oil producing countries to freeze the supply will not be able to curb the oversupply in the market.

    Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration announced a 10.4 million barrels increase held in inventory by commercial firms during last week. This is the highest level since April 2015.

    The news though did not affect the highly dependent Canadian dollar, which continued to strengthen last afternoon. Australian Dollar has also surged higher and was trading at 0.7323 against the US Dollar this morning, being the pair’s this year high. The US Dollar Index stayed largely unaffected.










    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0950

    Target 2: 1.0780

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

    Daily control level: 1.0896



    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4230

    Target 2: 1.3925

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

    Daily control level: 1.3895



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 114.70

    Target 2: 113.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27

    Daily control level: 113.15




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0045

    Target 2: 0.9880

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

    Daily control level: 0.9945




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3545

    Target 2: 1.3275

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

    Daily control level: 1.3500




    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7375

    Target 2: 0.7205

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.7115




    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1263.00

    Target 2: 1215.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 23.79

    Daily control level: 1224.45




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 36.55

    Target 2: 32.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.87

    Daily control level: 33.45








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  4. #574

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.03.2016



    This afternoon at 1:30 pm London time the Bureau of Labour and Statistics publishes its latest monthly Non-Farm Employment Change data.

    This publication is part of the Jobs Report that also includes the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate releases.

    The NFP report gives investors’ information on the number of new employees hired during the prior month.

    Market participants monitor all the components that make up the Jobs Report. However, the NFP does tend to have an overbearing impact on the market and can cause large amounts of volatility in all liquid asset classes and the forex market.

    The NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate reports are published very early after the end of the prior month. Therefore, they can give traders and investors an early warning of economic changes. As such, the Jobs Report is a valuable tool for helping one to decide if new risk should be taken or if current exposure management should be modified.

    Jobs related data such as the NFP is important because it is a barometer of the conditions of the United States economy and is also a leading indicator of possible changes to consumer spending.

    The market consensus expects to see 195.000 new vacancies to have been filled in February. Today’s forecast if realized would be an increase from the previous 151.000 places that were reported in the prior months release.

    The overall trend of the data continues to be positive, however, it is important to consider the NFP data together with the effect on wage levels, released at the same time. The Average Hourly Earnings data, this time, is expected to drop to 0.2%, down from 0.5% of the previous release.

    The Federal Reserve would welcome a rise in the level of wages as this will mean that the low-interest rate policy could be relaxed further over the coming year.

    Should the NFP actual announcement exceed, the market estimates the US Dollar price would usually strengthen against its major pairs.

    High volatility around the time of the Jobs Data releases should be anticipated.









    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1035

    Target 2: 1.0850

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

    Daily control level: 1.0820




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4325

    Target 2: 1.4015

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155

    Daily control level: 1.4030



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 114.80

    Target 2: 112.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.22

    Daily control level: 113.15




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0000

    Target 2: 0.9840

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

    Daily control level: 0.9980




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3540

    Target 2: 1.3270

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

    Daily control level: 1.3475



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7440

    Target 2: 0.7265

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.7115





    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1287.00

    Target 2: 1240.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 23.64

    Daily control level: 1224.45



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 36.50

    Target 2: 32.80

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.86

    Daily control level: 33.10







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  5. #575

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.03.2016






    Oil prices extended the price gains into the Monday opening session on investors’ optimism that the demand for the commodity will grow, whereas the supply is expected to be reduced.

    The drop in the number of operating oil rigs has boosted hopes of the market participants that the long-lasting decline in the oil price will finally rebound. The report, released by Baker Hughes on Friday indicated the eleventh week for the oil rigs decline.

    Moreover, the possibility that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will finally agree to a production freeze at their next meeting on March 20 is also strengthening investors’ confidence. At the moment, four large commodity’s producers among which are Saudi Arabia and Russia, intend to limit the oil supply at the January levels.

    Thus, Brent reached US$ 39.70 high at this week’s opening session with the commodity retesting the top of the downtrend channel which was formed last May. WTI also continue to strengthen as it was trading close to US$ 38.00 level this morning.

    Positive news from China seems to add the support to the world’s most traded commodity also as Chinese government voiced its plans to emphasize the growth over the economy restructuring. The target for 2016 was firmly set between 6.5% and 7% when the National People’s Congress was held this weekend.

    A number of measures are set to be taken, including tax cuts which will allow the local companies more fund to invest. A broad social financing measures will also be taken to support the slowing down world’s second largest economy.

    The US dollar was seen to weaken for the last three trading days, with the index reaching 97.01 low last Friday.









    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1075

    Target 2: 1.0900

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 1.0900




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4365

    Target 2: 1.4070

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148

    Daily control level: 1.4100



    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 115.00

    Target 2: 112.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.19

    Daily control level: 113.10




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0005

    Target 2: 0.9840

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 0.9990




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3460

    Target 2: 1.3200

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

    Daily control level: 1.3475





    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7485

    Target 2: 0.7310

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7115




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1283.50

    Target 2: 1235.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 24.13

    Daily control level: 1248.70




    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 38.00

    Target 2: 34.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

    Daily control level: 34.30






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  6. #576

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.03.2016





    In overnight news, continuing concerns over the slowdown of the Chinese economy was highlighted by extremely disappointing international trade numbers. According to the Customs General Administration of China, international traded dropped to 210 billion in February. This statistic compares unfavourably to January data of 406 billion.

    It was expected that the month on month trade balance number would decline to a more modest 339 billion. This morning’s number is the lowest published reading since March of 2015 and is also the steepest decline since May 2009.

    Reading deeper into this data from China, an alteration of the date of the Lunar Year had a dramatic effect on the export numbers. This view is backed up by an analyst report from Capital Economics of Singapore which said. “In 2015, the holiday fell unusually late which meant that more of the pre-holiday rush to meet orders and less of the post-holiday disruptions took place in February, causing exports to jump 48.9 percent year-on-year.”

    Later this morning, the United Kingdom Brexit debate will come strongly into focus when the Bank of England Governor, Mr Mark Carney will give testimony to a Parliamentary Committee in London on Britain’s continued membership of the European Union.

    The Brexit debate is heating up between the “in” and “out” campaigners within the ruling Conservative Party. Therefore, it will be fascinating to see how Mr Carney and his deputy Mr Cunliffe manage to stick to an impartial line when it is an open secret that the Bank of England favours keeping the UK inside the European Union.

    For most of today in Brussels, European Finance Ministers will meet. This meeting will take place just two days before a crucial European Central Bank meeting. The ECB President has on many occasions promoted a dovish bias on interest rates by saying that the central bank will do what it takes to bring inflation back to target. However, to date, Mr Draghi has failed to back up this rhetoric. The ECOFIN meeting could give valuable insight into the mood of European Finance Ministers and their appetite to move further down a path of stimulus.

    This afternoon, we have news from Canada with announcements from the construction sector with both Housing Starts and Building Permits publications due to be released. The news from Canada has added significance as this data release will come just one day before a crucial Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

    Tuesday is rounded off with data from Australia when the WestPac Banking Corporation will publish its Consumer Sentiment report. This data is followed by more news from the banking and property sector when the Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to announce Home Loans data.









    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1100

    Target 2: 1.0925

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 1.0935




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4410

    Target 2: 1.4100

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

    Daily control level: 1.4125




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 114.60

    Target 2: 112.20

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

    Daily control level: 114.30



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.0025

    Target 2: 0.9855

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 1.0010



    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3410

    Target 2: 1.3155

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126

    Daily control level: 1.3380



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7555

    Target 2: 0.7380

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7385


    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1289.00

    Target 2: 1242.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 23.83

    Daily control level: 1255.00



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 39.70

    Target 2: 36.20

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74

    Daily control level: 36.00









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  7. #577

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.03.2016








    Euro declined as the next meeting of the European Central Bank is approaching this Thursday. Markets have already priced in a further loosening of the monetary policy, with the deposit rate expected to be cut by at least ten bps to -0.4%.

    The possibility of the boosting the amount of the QE assets purchases also remains in place. Some economists expect the bond-purchase programme to be increased by 10 billion euros a month, totalling 70 billion euros.

    EURUSD was trading below the 1.10 key level this morning. The pair has reconfirmed the breach of the daily upward trend channel which occurred two weeks ago, suggesting a move lower might be ahead.

    Oil has recently been trading higher. However, yesterday afternoon commodity tried to correct lower after it reached a three-month high in the morning. Thus, Brent oil is trading at US$ 40.00 psychological level this morning, whereas WTI is fluctuating around US$ 38.00 mark.

    The crude oil inventories release this afternoon will likely to define the oil price direction further. Currently, analysts expect an increase in stocks by 3 million barrels this week, after the index shown a 10.4 million increase last time.

    With respect to today’s economic calendar, the European trading hours are promising to be quiet with regards to any major releases, which could affect the market. In the afternoon session, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will come up with their policy statements, which could cause volatility in the Canadian and New Zealand dollars correspondingly







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1100

    Target 2: 1.0920

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 1.1060




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4360

    Target 2: 1.4060

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

    Daily control level: 1.4130




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 113.75

    Target 2: 111.45

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.15

    Daily control level: 114.30




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0045

    Target 2: 0.9870

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.9895





    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3535

    Target 2: 1.3280

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

    Daily control level: 1.3260




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7525

    Target 2: 0.7350

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

    Daily control level: 0.7400




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1283.50

    Target 2: 1239.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 22.59

    Daily control level: 1278.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 38.00

    Target 2: 34.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.76

    Daily control level: 35.95







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  8. #578

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.03.2016






    Today’s session will be marked by the European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate decision which will be announced at 12:45 pm London time.

    The interest rate for the main refinancing operations providing the volume liquidity to the banks has declined to all times low in October 2014 and remains unchanged at 0.05% since then.

    The benchmark rate is expected to stay unmoved this time, as deflationary pressures due to the deflated oil price remain, among the others, a heavy toll on the inflation rate in Europe, which is well below 2% target.

    Nevertheless, the story is different with the deposit interest rate, which first went negative in June 2014, when ECB adopted a -0.10% level, meaning that banks are now charged with keeping their funds with ECB. Since then further two rate cuts have taken the rate to -0.30%. This time, market participants are pricing in at least 0.1% decrease, with the interest rate, in this case, will be -0.4%.

    Short term interest rates are playing a major role in a country’s currency valuation. Hence, a market volatility usually rises during the time of the release.

    The importance of this announcement will be amplified by the ECB press conference held at 1:30 pm London time, where additional monetary easing measures are expected to be announced.

    The Bank’s primary means to communicate to the investors, the press conference will usually cover factors that affected the current decision including the inflation pace and the overall economic outlook.

    During the afternoon trading session, traders will be watching the US unemployment claims data, with the number of individuals who applied for the unemployment insurance during past week forecasted to improve to 272.000 down from 278.000 of the previous release.







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1085

    Target 2: 1.0910

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 1.1035





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4350

    Target 2: 1.4070

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

    Daily control level: 1.4170



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 114.50

    Target 2: 112.15

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

    Daily control level: 114.30



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.0060

    Target 2: 0.9885

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

    Daily control level: 0.9895





    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3380

    Target 2: 1.3110

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0134

    Daily control level: 1.3445




    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7570

    Target 2: 0.7395

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

    Daily control level: 0.7400



    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1275.00

    Target 2: 1229.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 22.82

    Daily control level: 1278.00



    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 40.00

    Target 2: 36.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

    Daily control level: 35.95






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  9. #579

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.03.2016





    The European Central Bank adopted a greater quantitative easing measures than investors were expecting, as yesterday’s monetary policy of the Bank has unveiled.

    In addition to fulfilling the expectation that the deposit rate cut to -0.4%, the Central Bank took more drastic measures which included a decision to reduce the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem to a historic low of 0.0%. At the same time, the marginal lending rate was reduced by 0.25%.

    The current bond purchasing programme has also been expanded to 80 billion euros a month starting this April. Furthermore, this time, the investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank entities from the euro area will also be added to the list of eligible for purchase assets.

    The initial statement sent the Euro lower, however during the press conference, the currency reversed its move with the EURUSD seeing strongest this year’s gains when the pair reached above 1.1200 level last afternoon.

    Mr. Draghi’s commented on the course of future monetary policy by saying that no further cuts are being planned for interest rates. “From today’s perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further. Of course, new facts can change the situation and the outlook.”

    The announcement had a significantly negative impact on the US Dollar index, which declined to below 96.00 level, its month’s lowest.

    Gold advanced to 1282.00 level during the yesterday’s trading session, being the metal’s one-year high, as investors are looked for safe havens during times of global economic uncertainty.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1285

    Target 2: 1.1070

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

    Daily control level: 1.0820




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4410

    Target 2: 1.4150

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 1.4130



    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 114.40

    Target 2: 111.90

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.26

    Daily control level: 112.55



    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9940

    Target 2: 0.9750

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

    Daily control level: 1.0090




    USDCAD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3480

    Target 2: 1.3200

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

    Daily control level: 1.3225



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7540

    Target 2: 0.7365

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

    Daily control level: 0.7400




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1293.00

    Target 2: 1247.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 22.99

    Daily control level: 1237.00



    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 39.75

    Target 2: 36.25

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.777

    Daily control level: 37.00






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  10. #580

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.03.2016







    Stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific Region on Monday showed a positive trend before this week’s meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. This supported investors’ optimism caused by the results of the ECB meeting last week, when the bank took a more aggressive approach to support the troubled euro zone economy than initially expected.

    This action led markets to hope for a speedy recovery of the euro area and also intensified an increase the demand for risky assets.

    Investors’ attention this week is focused on the meetings of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday and the US Federal Reserve’s held on Wednesday. It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current levels, which are -0.1% and 0.25-0.5% respectively.

    For now, the US Dollar remains a centre of attention of market participants this week. Even though the probability of the interest rate hike is next to a zero, traders should not yet discard the possibility for a surprise.

    In addition to the standard monetary policy announcement by FOMC, this quarterly event will also present updated economic forecasts and the press conference by the Fed Chairwoman, who is expected to bring more light in the future direction of the US monetary policy.

    Last week the US dollar was significantly weakened by the ECB’s policy decision, with the dollar index declining below 96.00 mark. Looking its daily chart, the world’s major reserve currency continues to trade a downtrend scenario, hinting that the uptrend established in the middle of 2014 might be coming to an end.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1256

    Target 2: 1.1030

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

    Daily control level: 1.0820



    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4507

    Target 2: 1.4241

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

    Daily control level: 1.4130




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 115.11

    Target 2: 112.67

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.216

    Daily control level: 112.55





    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9926

    Target 2: 0.9734

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

    Daily control level: 1.0090



    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3367

    Target 2: 1.3083

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

    Daily control level: 1.3225




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7642

    Target 2: 0.7452

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

    Daily control level: 0.7400





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1274.70

    Target 2: 1225.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 24.65

    Daily control level: 1237.00


    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 41.33

    Target 2: 38.07

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.629

    Daily control level: 37.00








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