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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #591

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.03.2016







    The US Dollar is trading higher this morning as traders await a speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman later this afternoon. As always, Janet Yellen’s presentation will be closely scrutinized by the market participants, who will look for clues regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy.

    On the March 16, the FOMC delivered a statement, which gave a dovish message to the markets as it reduced the projected amount of interest rate increases for 2016. This action will likely lead to a lower dollar and expected to boost the US economy.

    The shift towards a policy that seeks to devalue the US currency was highlighted by FOMC Chairwoman’s message to the worlds gathered press that US Dollar strength transitory. Although this term was used this was the first time it was applied in regards to the Dollar’s value.

    The main goals of the policymakers are the price stability and a healthy US job market. Nevertheless, a weaker US Dollar policy is welcomed by the global markets as this could lead to price stability and less deflation there too. Furthermore, the policy of deliberately weakening the US Dollar could act as a spur for growth both within the USA and across the globe..










    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1295

    Target 2: 1.1095

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

    Daily control level: 1.1140




    GBPUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4400

    Target 2: 1.4105

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

    Daily control level: 1.4105





    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 114.45

    Target 2: 112.40

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

    Daily control level: 113.10





    USDCHF






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9815

    Target 2: 0.9650

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

    Daily control level: 0.9790








    USDCAD







    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3320

    Target 2: 1.3050

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0137

    Daily control level: 1.3020







    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7630

    Target 2: 0.7450

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

    Daily control level: 0.7490






    GOLD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1243.00

    Target 2: 1199.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 22.07

    Daily control level: 1224.00







    OIL







    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 40.70

    Target 2: 37.90

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.39

    Daily control level: 40.15








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  2. #592

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 30.03.2016






    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    EURUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel as investors hopes regarding the US rate hikes are fading after the yesterday’s speech of Janet Yellen.

    EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.1370, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1430, could be observed further.

    If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1253, being the pair’s pivot point of today.




    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the newly created uptrend channel.

    GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4326 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1.4496, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could take place next.

    If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4248, which is pair’s 1st pivot support level.




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY plummeted lower as the US dollar is weakening.

    USDJPY needs to hold below 113.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

    The initial downside target is 111.83, being the 2nd pivot support. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 111.60, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could take place next.

    If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.02, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.






    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCHF is dropped lower on the dovish speech of Janet Yellen made yesterday.

    USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9693 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside target is 0.9600, being the pair’s next key level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9554, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.

    If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9700.




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD is testing the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.

    USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3112 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

    The initial downside aim is 1.2935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. After the target is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.2895, which is 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.

    If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3112, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.





    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has reached a nine-months high this morning.

    AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7593 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7715, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7770, could follow next.

    If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7593, being the pivot point of today.







    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold is trading within the newly created downward trend channel, bouncing off the bottom off it.

    Gold needs to hold above 1217.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 1225.84, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1138.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

    If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1206.32, which is the commodity’s 2nd pivot support of today.





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil is has bounced off the bottom of the uptrend channel and is trading higher this morning.

    The commodity needs to hold above 39.53 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

    The initial upside target is 40.94, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 41.35, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could follow next.

    If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

    If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.00, being the commodity’s next key level.







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  3. #593

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.04.2016







    The beginning of the week started with heightened event risk when last Tuesday the Federal Reserve Charwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen spoke about the Economic Outlook of the US and global economy during a talk given to the Economic Club of New York.

    This speech was extremely dovish on the prospect of future interest rate increases when Yellen spoke of the need for a stabilization of foreign economies and markets and the impact of the strong US Dollar.

    This week will end how it began with today’s New York session preceded by the monthly Jobs Report which is due to be announced at 1:30 PM London time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Jobs Report, which is made up of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases.

    Although all three reports are important as together they give a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market, the Non-Farm Payrolls number always receives the lion’s share of the attention.

    In a prelude to this afternoon’s data releases, yesterday, the US Department of Labor published the missing piece of the Jobs Report picture when it announced the Unemployment Claims data. Unemployment Claims had been in steady decline since they hit a peak during the time when the great recession ravaged the United States and global economy.

    As unemployment claims are published on a weekly basis, there is a lot of data points to consider however the downtrend in this number does support the good overall picture that we have seen in the monthly release of the Jobs Report. The prior week’s announcement was 265K, and the consensus view was that there would be a slight increase in claimants with a rise to 266K. Yesterday’s actual number was 276K.

    Back to today’s releases, the markets are expecting the NFP number to be reported at around the 206K level which would be well below the prior month’s 242K. It should be noted that the actual NFP number published has tended to ignore analysts assessments in recent months. Therefore trying to glean anything from such forecasts would seem to have little value.

    The Unemployment Rate report has also indicated that there is strength in the US employment market as the amount of those seeking employment has dropped from over 10% back in 2009 to 4.9% that was reported in the March publication. As the rate of unemployment is now so small, it would be tough for the NFP numbers to continually show such strength as fewer and fewer citizens are now looking for work.

    Which brings us to the final part of the Jobs Report, which is, of course, the Average Hourly Earnings release. It is to be expected that businesses would begin to increase salaries offered as a means to retain and recruit employees? However, although the Average Hourly Earnings number have only on the occasional month indicated that wages are in fact increasing, there have been other months such as the March publication which were very disappointing.

    We end where we started with Janet Yellen at the FOMC and the dual mandate of price stability and a healthy jobs market. The Federal Reserve is dependent on data, therefore, although it would like to see continued strength in the Jobs Report numbers, its will be hoping that the Average Hourly Earnings numbers begin to move in line with the rest of this publication.








    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1455

    Target 2: 1.1300

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

    Daily control level: 1.1305





    GBPUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.4520

    Target 2: 1.4230

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

    Daily control level: 1.4315




    USDJPY



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 113.50

    Target 2: 111.55

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99

    Daily control level: 112.70




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9685

    Target 2: 0.9545

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

    Daily control level: 0.9665




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.3145

    Target 2: 1.2860

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

    Daily control level: 1.3215



    AUDUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 0.7745

    Target 2: 0.7585

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

    Daily control level: 0.7630




    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1252.00

    Target 2: 1212.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 20.00

    Daily control level: 1222.00




    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 39.55

    Target 2: 36.70

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

    Daily control level: 39.85







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  4. #594

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.04.2016







    Last week ended with highly anticipated Jobs report from the United States. The data, consisting of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases, gives a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market.

    The Non-Farm Payroll release, representing a change in the number of employed people during the previous month apart from farming industry, has positively surprised investors with growth to 215.000 working places compared to 206.000 expected. The number has however declined in parallel with the March results of 245.000.

    The next component of the Jobs report, presented to the markets by the Average Hourly Earnings, also did well as it showed an upturn of 0.3%. Keeping in mind that the previous month results were -0.1%, and market consensus expected just 0.2% number, this outcome was quite outstanding.

    The Unemployment rate announcement, however, calmed down the excitement, revealing a rise to 5.0%, which was the first expansion since the June last year. That could probably explain that the US dollar stayed unaffected to usually such a significant release, with the US dollar index remaining to trade around 94.50 mark, being its five-month low.

    Proceeding to this trading week, it began with the news from Australia. Here, the monthly building approvals number has indicated a significant rise to 3.1% from -6.6% of the March outcome. The retail sales dropped to from 0.3% to 0.0% this month. The AUDUSD nevertheless remained trading at its nine-month high.

    Later on, at 9:30 am London time the UK monthly Construction PMI data will come into the spotlight. The indicator of the economic health of the construction industry, this time, is expected to increase slightly to 54.3, up from 54.2 of last time. The number higher than forecasted could likely give support to the weakening British Pound.







    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.1455

    Target 2: 1.1330

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

    Daily control level: 1.1330




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4365

    Target 2: 1.4075

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0146

    Daily control level: 1.4425




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 112.50

    Target 2: 110.65

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.95

    Daily control level: 112.70





    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9640

    Target 2: 0.9495

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

    Daily control level: 0.9665




    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3175

    Target 2: 1.2890

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

    Daily control level: 1.2850




    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7760

    Target 2: 0.7575

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

    Daily control level: 0.7725





    GOLD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1252.00

    Target 2: 1212.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 19.74

    Daily control level: 1222.00





    OIL



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 38.00

    Target 2: 35.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

    Daily control level: 39.00







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  5. #595

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    MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.04.2016






    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning’s trading saw EURUSD test the 1.1355 line of control.

    A penetration of the 1.1375 level would correspond to a breach of the last isolated high of this morning’s session.

    Such an event could see EURUSD test the Daily Pivot (1.1385) and R1 (1.1414).

    Alternatively, a sustained breached of the 1.1355 level could see EURUSD test S2 (1.1330)





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning GBPUSD broke down from its Daily Pivot (1.4258) and the 1.4250 support level.

    The price continued its downward course and is now testing S1 (1.4195).

    A continuation of the move lower could see GBPUSD test a prior weekly support level (1.4150) and S2 (1.4127).

    Alternatively, a failure to sustain a move below S1 could see GBPUSD trade back up to the Daily Pivot.







    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDJPY has traded lower for most of the day.

    However, a bounce has occurred off S3 (110.31).

    A continuation of the correction could see USDJPY trade through both S2 (110.69) and S1 (111.00).

    Alternatively, a resumption of the downtrend could see S3 retested.




    USDCHF



    The intraday technical outlook

    This morning, USDCHF has traded within a small range around the Daily Pivot (0.9588).

    A breach of R1 (0.9609) or S1 (0.9562) could offer some guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.






    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    USDCAD has experienced a strong up-day that has brought the price action to touching distance of R3 (1.3200).

    A continuation of the move higher, however, could run out of upside momentum as the price action has come close to exhausting the upper limit of its average true range (1.3210).





    AUDUSD





    The intraday technical outlook

    AUDUSD has experienced a volatile session with the price action initially testing S1 (0.7575) and then the Daily Pivot (0.7626).

    The Daily Pivot, however, was rejected, and this led to a freefall in AUDUSD that sent the price action crashing through S2 (0.7546).

    A continuation of the move lower, however, could run out of downside momentum as the price action tests the lower level of today’s average true range (0.7515)






    GOLD






    The intraday technical outlook

    Gold this morning has broken higher as the price action has reversed its three day’s down trend.

    Having slashed through R1, R2 and R3 Gold is now testing the upper ATR boundary of 1235.00.








    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Oil has experienced a quiet day as the price action trades at the bottom of a recent downtrend.

    A breach of the Daily Pivot (36.00) or S1 (34.84) could offer guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.








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  6. #596

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.04.2016







    Today at 19:00 pm London time the FOMC minutes for the last meeting will be published. The release could likely put a further downward pressure on the US currency.

    The US Dollar continues to decline as the Federal Reserve’s earlier promises were not matched to the actions. The last FOMC meeting held in March also disappointed investors after it decided to take a significantly more dovish stance than the one it undertook in December.

    At the last speech, the Fed chairwoman underlined the caution with changes to the monetary policy being considered. The patient approach pushed the dollar downwards, with its index is now trading below 95.00 level, being its five-month low.

    The earlier promised four rate hikes in 2016 are now changed to a mere two, and even these are not guaranteed. As the CME Fed Watch Tool shows, the chances that the Fed will increase interest rates in September are around 40% at the moment.

    Furthermore, investors give just 18% a chance to the hawkish actions of the Fed in June and 57% in December. Nevertheless, keeping in mind the last speech of Janet Yellen, the future policy will be much more accommodative to the state of the domestic economy, which is represented by the inflation rate and jobs market. The global circumstances will also continue to be observed.

    At the moment, the cheap dollar could actually be of a benefit to the US economy as the local production will be supported. Also, that is the way to keep the cost of the domestic debt at affordable levels, which is imperative to the world’s largest economy.





    EURUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.1450

    Target 2: 1.1310

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

    Daily control level: 1.1400




    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 1.4290

    Target 2: 1.4030

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

    Daily control level: 1.4320




    USDJPY




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 111.15

    Target 2: 109.50

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82

    Daily control level: 111.75




    USDCHF




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.9615

    Target 2: 0.9500

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0059

    Daily control level: 0.9605




    USDCAD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1.3255

    Target 2: 1.3015

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

    Daily control level: 1.2995





    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 0.7625

    Target 2: 0.7455

    Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

    Daily control level: 0.7725




    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Target 1: 1250.00

    Target 2: 1213.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 18.21

    Daily control level: 1214.00





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Target 1: 38.00

    Target 2: 35.00

    Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43

    Daily control level: 37.25








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  7. #597

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    MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.04.2016










    EURUSD



    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Daily Pivot : 1.1384

    S1 : 1.1338

    S2 : 1.1279

    S3 : 1.1233

    R1 : 1.1443

    R2 : 1.1489

    R3 : 1.1548





    GBPUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Daily Pivot : 1.4099

    S1 : 1.4027

    S2 : 1.3933

    S3 : 1.3862

    R1 : 1.4193

    R2 : 1.4264

    R3 : 1.4358




    USDJPY





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Daily Pivot : 109.90

    S1 : 109.18

    S2 : 108.59

    S3 : 107.86

    R1 : 110.49

    R2 : 111.22

    R3 : 111.81






    USDCHF






    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Daily Pivot : 0.9569

    S1 : 0.9517

    S2 : 0.9477

    S3 : 0.9425

    R1 : 0.9609

    R2 : 0.9661

    R3 : 0.9701






    USDCAD





    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Daily Pivot : 1.3111

    S1 : 1.3037

    S2 : 1.2987

    S3 : 1.2912

    R1 : 1.3161

    R2 : 1.3236

    R3 : 1.3286






    AUDUSD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Down

    Daily Pivot : 0.7583

    S1 : 0.7547

    S2 : 0.7496

    S3 : 0.7460

    R1 : 0.7634

    R2 : 0.7669

    R3 : 0.7720







    GOLD




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Daily Pivot : 1223.00

    S1 : 1215.00

    S2 : 1208.00

    S3 : 1200.00

    R1 : 1230.00

    R2 : 1239.00

    R3 : 1245.00





    OIL




    The intraday technical outlook

    Trend 1 hour: Up

    Daily Pivot : 37.32

    S1 : 36.78

    S2 : 35.87

    S3 : 35.33

    R1 : 38.23

    R2 : 38.77

    R3 : 39.68







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