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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

  1. #61

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    EURUSD is bouncing at trend line support. We are monitoring the price action to see if there is a potential move up to Fibonacci resistance.

    Alternatively as EURUSD is now trading at the 8 period moving averages there is a possibility of a rejection of this level followed by a move to the 4th April Swing Low.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    GBPUSD is basing just under the 1.5270 support area. We are monitoring a potential move to Fibonacci resistance.

    Alternatively as the price action has traded back to the 8 period moving averages there is possibility that there is a rejection of this level followed by a move to the 1.5030 area which is a pivot low for the 4th April.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -






    Comments
    USDCHF has once again traded up to and rejected the 161.80 extension level. Furthermore a pronounced negative RSI divergence is forming.

    We are monitoring the potential for a further break of the 161.8 level. A move above this level has the potential to follow through to the 200 Fibonacci extension level with further targets being 0.9970 which corresponds to a prior Swing High and then the significant USDCHF 1.0000 level.

    Alternatively a failure to break above the 161.8 level could possibly lead to a deeper pullback into Fibonacci support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    As posted previously, USDJPY continues to trade at its highs without making any significant progress over the past few sessions. The RSI is showing a weekly negative divergence.

    We have identified 110 as the next potential swing target and the 104 area as a possible Fibonacci expansion target.

    Alternatively as the price action is extended, there is potential that USDJPY trades down to sideways as this currency pair corrects and allows the averages to catch up with the last move. Initially support for a possible correction being found at the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 21st May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20





    Comments
    Gold has traded back to the 8 period moving averages.

    We continue to monitor the price action at these levels for potential move to Target 1.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 21st May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    Oil has now closed above the weekly and monthly triangle resistance and in the process put in place a HH, HL, HH combination. We are monitoring the possibility for the upward momentum to continue with the 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the area of 103 being a potential target. However Oil will first need to initially breach the significant 100 level.

    Alternatively if Oil cannot move higher from these levels could lead to the possibility that we see a further pull back to the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

  2. #62

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 22nd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    As posted previously EURUSD is bouncing at trend line support. We are monitoring the price action to see if there is a potential move up to Fibonacci resistance.

    Alternatively as EURUSD is now trading at the 8 period moving averages there is a possibility of a rejection of this level followed by a move to the 4th April Swing Low.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -






    Comments
    As posted previously GBPUSD is basing just under the 1.5270 support area. We are monitoring a potential move to Fibonacci resistance.

    Alternatively as the price action has traded back to the 8 period moving averages there is possibility that there is a rejection of this level followed by a move to the 1.5030 area which is a pivot low for the 4th April.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 22nd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    As posted previously USDCHF has once again traded up to and rejected the 161.80 extension level. Furthermore a pronounced negative RSI divergence is forming.

    We are monitoring the potential for a further break of the 161.8 level. A move above this level has the potential to follow through to the 200 Fibonacci extension level with further targets being 0.9970 which corresponds to a prior Swing High and then the significant USDCHF 1.0000 level.

    Alternatively a failure to break above the 161.8 level could possibly lead to a deeper pullback into Fibonacci support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 22nd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    As posted previously, USDJPY continues to trade at its highs without making any significant progress over the past few sessions. The RSI is showing a weekly negative divergence.

    We have identified 110 as the next potential swing target and the 104 area as a possible Fibonacci expansion target.

    Alternatively as the price action is extended, there is potential that USDJPY trades down to sideways as this currency pair corrects and allows the averages to catch up with the last move. Initially support for a possible correction being found at the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 22nd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20






    Comments
    As posted previously Gold has traded back to the 8 period moving averages.

    We continue to monitor the price action at these levels for potential move to Target 1.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend




    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 22nd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    After closing above the weekly and monthly triangle resistance Oil has experienced a minor pullback. We are monitoring the possibility for the upward momentum to continue with the 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the area of 103 being a potential target. However Oil will first need to initially breach the significant 100 level.

    Alternatively if Oil cannot move higher from these levels could lead to the possibility that we see a further pull back to the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

  3. #63

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 23rd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments
    EURUSD yesterday spiked higher only to fallback and close at it lows. The price action continues to bounce around the upward sloping trend line.

    We are monitoring a potential move up to Fibonacci resistance.

    Alternatively as EURUSD is now trading at the 8 period moving averages there is a possibility of a rejection of this level followed by a move to the 4th April Swing Low.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 23rd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    GBPUSD yesterday traded lower and has closed beneath the low for the 4th April.

    We are monitoring a potential move to the pivot low of 12th March with initial support possibly coming in at trend line support in and around the 1.4900 area.

    Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for a pullback initially to the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 23rd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    USDCHF has slashed through the 161.80 Fibonacci extension level and has touched the 200 level.

    We are monitoring a potential move to further targets being 0.9970 which corresponds to a prior Swing High and then the significant USDCHF 1.0000 level.

    Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility for the price action to retrace so as to allow for a correction.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    As posted previously, USDJPY continues to trade at its highs without making any significant progress over the past few sessions. The RSI is showing a weekly negative divergence.

    We have identified 110 as the next potential swing target and the 104 area as a possible Fibonacci expansion target.

    Alternatively as the price action is extended, there is potential that USDJPY trades down to sideways as this currency pair corrects and allows the averages to catch up with the last move. Initially support for a possible correction being found at the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 23rd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20




    Comments
    As posted previously Gold has traded back to the 8 period moving averages.

    We continue to monitor the price action at these levels for potential move to Target 1.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 23rd May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    Oil has pull backed following its move above the weekly and monthly triangle resistance. This pullback has corrected down to daily Fibonacci support.

    We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible resumption of the uptrend with possible targets being the 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the area of 103 being a potential target. However Oil will first need to initially breach the significant 100 level.

    Alternatively if Oil cannot find support at these levels there is a possibility for a move initially to broken upward sloping trend line.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

  4. #64

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 24th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145
    Target 1 : 1.2795
    Target 2 : 1.2745
    Stop : 1.3245




    Comments
    The swing bias remains negative with the averages confirming this direction. The price action continues to range around the upward sloping trend line and between both the short and long moving averages.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential break down in the direction of the 4th April Swing Low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively EURUSD could possibly retrace up the long average and Fibonacci resistance level.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 24th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    GBPUSD on a swing basis continues to have a negative bias and is trading under both the short and long moving averages.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential move to the pivot low of 12th March. However an uptrend line may initially offer support at around the 1.4900 area.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for a pullback initially to the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 24th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    USDCHF on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the trend. Currently the price action is ranging between the 161.80 and 200 percent expansion levels.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential move to further targets being 0.9970 which corresponds to a prior Swing High and then the significant USDCHF 1.0000 level.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility for the price action to retrace so as to allow for an orderly correction.


    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend






    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 24th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40
    Target 1 : 104.00
    Target 2 : 110.00
    Stop : 97.00






    Comments
    USDJPY on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the market direction. However yesterday price action rejected the 161.80 Fibonacci expansion level and USDJPY has subsequently corrected down to a level slightly above the 34 period moving averages and Fibonacci support. This move was in line with the negative weekly RSI divergence that was identified in prior postings.

    We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.
    1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.
    2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.
    3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.
    4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.
    Scenario 1
    A move down to Fibonacci support could offer a potential opportunity to buy USDJPY with targets mentioned coming into focus.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if the price action can breach and close beneath the long average there is a possibility for a further move to trend line support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 24th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20




    Comments
    Gold on a swing basis is trading negatively with the moving averages confirming the trend. However the price action has retraced to the small average thus creating the possibility of a Higher Low and double bottom scenario.
    That said as the trend is negative the focus will continue on the short side.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring the price action at the area of the 8 period moving averages so as to identify possible selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if Gold can close above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 24th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 94.45 – 93.00
    Target 1 : 97.30
    Target 2 : 99.00
    Stop : 92.00





    Comments
    Oil on a swing basis continues to trade positively with the moving averages confirming the direction. However Oil has pullback into Fibonacci support where it touched and rejected a prior broken up trend line. The bigger picture continues to be one where the price action is trading near the top of a large monthly converging triangle.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible resumption of the uptrend with possible targets being the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00 respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if Oil cannot find support at these levels there is a possibility of a retest of the prior broken upward sloping trend line.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

  5. #65

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 27th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW



    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145
    Target 1 : 1.2795
    Target 2 : 1.2745
    Stop : 1.3245





    Comments
    The swing bias remains negative with the averages confirming this direction. The price action continues to range around the upward sloping trend line and between both the short and long moving averages.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential break down in the direction of the 4th April Swing Low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively EURUSD could possibly retrace up the long average and Fibonacci resistance level.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 27th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW


    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -



    Comments
    GBPUSD on a swing basis continues to have a negative bias and is trading under both the short and long moving averages.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential move to the pivot low of 12th March. However an uptrend line may initially offer support at around the 1.4900 area.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for a pullback initially to the 8 period moving averages.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 27th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    USDCHF on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the trend. Currently the price action has retraced from the Fibonacci expansion area and moved back into the averages. The next potential support level is at the prior swing high to be found at 0.9550.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential move to further targets being 0.9970 which corresponds to a prior Swing High and then the significant USDCHF 1.0000 level.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the price action could possibly continue its correction down to Fibonacci support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 27th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW


    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40
    Target 1 : 104.00
    Target 2 : 110.00
    Stop : 97.00



    Comments
    USDJPY on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the market direction. However yesterday price action rejected the 161.80 Fibonacci expansion level and USDJPY has subsequently corrected down to a level slightly above the 34 period moving averages and Fibonacci support. The RSI has not confirmed this move down as a positive divergence is forming. This would possibly imply that support could hold.

    We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.
    1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.
    2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.
    3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.
    4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.
    Scenario 1
    A move down to Fibonacci support could offer a potential opportunity to buy USDJPY with targets mentioned coming into focus.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if the price action can breach and close beneath the long average there is a possibility for a further move to trend line support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 27th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20




    Comments
    Gold on a swing basis is trading negatively with the moving averages confirming the trend. However the price action has retraced to the small average thus creating the possibility of a Higher Low and double bottom scenario.
    That said as the trend is negative the focus will continue on the short side.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring the price action at the area of the 8 period moving averages so as to identify possible selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if Gold can close above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 27th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 94.45 – 93.00
    Target 1 : 97.30
    Target 2 : 99.00
    Stop : 92.00




    Comments
    Oil on a swing basis continues to trade positively with the moving averages confirming the direction. However Oil has pullback into Fibonacci support where it touched and rejected a prior broken up trend line. The bigger picture continues to be one where the price action is trading near the top of a large monthly converging triangle.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible resumption of the uptrend with possible targets being the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00 respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if Oil cannot find support at these levels there is a possibility of a retest of the prior broken upward sloping trend line.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

  6. #66

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 28th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145
    Target 1 : 1.2795
    Target 2 : 1.2745
    Stop : 1.3245




    Comments
    EURUSD has this morning opened negatively.

    The swing bias remains negative with the averages confirming this direction. The price action continues to range around the upward sloping trend line and between both the short and long moving averages. That the price action has retraced into the averages when the trend is down could be viewed as a possible selling opportunity. However the upward sloping trend line may offer resistance to further downside movement.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential break down in the direction of the 4th April Swing Low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively EURUSD could possibly retrace up the long average and Fibonacci resistance level.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 28th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    This morning GBPUSD has opened neutral.

    GBPUSD on a swing basis continues to have a negative bias and is trading under both the short and long moving averages.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential move to the pivot low of 12th March. However an uptrend line may initially offer support at around the 1.4900 area.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively a close above 8 period moving averages could potentially signal an attempt to trade up to the Fibonacci resistance.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 28th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    This morning USDCHF has opened positively.

    USDCHF on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the trend. Currently the price action has retraced from the Fibonacci expansion area and moved back into the averages. The next potential support level is at the prior swing high to be found at 0.9550.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential move to further targets being 0.9970 which corresponds to a prior Swing High and then the significant USDCHF 1.0000 level.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the price action could possibly continue its correction down to Fibonacci support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend




    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 28th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40
    Target 1 : 104.00
    Target 2 : 110.00
    Stop : 97.00





    Comments
    This morning USDJPY has opened positively.

    USDJPY on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the market direction. The price action has retraced and trading within the averages which could potentially offer a buying opportunity. The RSI is also diverging positively.

    We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.
    1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.
    2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.
    3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.
    4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.
    Scenario 1
    A move down to Fibonacci support could offer a potential opportunity to buy USDJPY with targets mentioned coming into focus.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if the price action can breach and close beneath the long average there is a possibility for a further move to trend line support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 28th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20





    Comments
    Gold has this morning opened negative to neutral.

    Gold on a swing basis is trading negatively with the moving averages confirming the trend. A failure to breach the 16th April low will effectively put in place a higher low.

    Scenario 1
    As the price action has retraced between the averages this offers a potential selling opportunity as the trend is down. We are monitoring the price action at these levels so as to identify possible selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as Gold has closed above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 28th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 94.45 – 93.00
    Target 1 : 97.30
    Target 2 : 99.00
    Stop : 92.00





    Comments
    Oil has this morning opened flat to positive.

    Oil on a swing basis continues to trade positively with the moving averages confirming the direction. However Oil has pullback into Fibonacci support where it touched and rejected a prior broken up trend line. The bigger picture continues to be one where the price action is trading near the top of a large monthly converging triangle.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible resumption of the uptrend with possible targets being the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00 respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if Oil cannot find support at these levels there is a possibility of a retest of the prior broken upward sloping trend line.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

  7. #67

    Default Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 29.05.2013

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 29th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145
    Target 1 : 1.2795
    Target 2 : 1.2745
    Stop : 1.3245




    Comments
    EURUSD has this morning opened unchanged after yesterdays strong down day where it closed beneath the downward sloping trend line.

    The swing bias remains negative with the averages confirming this direction. The price action continues to range around the upward sloping trend line but has rejected a move into the averages is now trading beneath both the short and long moving averages. This possibility was mentioned in yesterdays post. Although a continuation o of the down move is a possibility the upward sloping trend line may still offer some resistance to further downside movement.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential break down in the direction of the 4th April Swing Low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively EURUSD could possibly retrace up the long average and Fibonacci resistance level.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 29th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    This morning GBPUSD has opened down to unchanged.

    GBPUSD on a swing basis continues to have a negative bias and is trading under both the short and long moving averages.

    Scenario 1
    The price action has retraced and rebound off the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring a potential move to the pivot low of 12th March. However an uptrend line may initially offer support at around the 1.4900 area.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively a close above 8 period moving averages could potentially signal an attempt to trade up to the Fibonacci resistance.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 29th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    This morning USDCHF has opened slightly negative after experiencing a strong up day yesterday.

    USDCHF on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the trend. Currently the price action has re-entered the Fibonacci expansion area and breached the 161.80 level.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring a potential move to further targets being 0.9970 which corresponds to a prior Swing High and then the significant USDCHF 1.0000 level.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the price action could possibly continue its correction down to Fibonacci support.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 29th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40
    Target 1 : 104.00
    Target 2 : 110.00
    Stop : 97.00






    Comments
    This morning USDJPY has opened unchanged after yesterday experiencing a moderately strong up day.

    USDJPY on a swing basis continues to trend positively with the moving averages confirming the market direction. The price action had retraced trading within the averages. This as mention yesterday offered a buying opportunity and the price action has since traded higher and is now above both averages. The RSI continues to diverge positively.

    We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.
    1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.
    2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.
    3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.
    4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.
    Scenario 1
    For USDJPY to continue its upward journey with an initial target being the last swing pivot high.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively a move down to Fibonacci support could offer a potential opportunity to buy USDJPY with targets mentioned coming into focus.


    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend


    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 29th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20





    Comments
    Gold has this morning opened slightly positive.

    Gold on a swing basis is trading negatively with the moving averages confirming the trend with the price action trading with the averages. Although the trend is down a failure to breach the 16th April low will effectively put in place a higher low.

    Scenario 1
    As the price action has retraced between the averages this offers a potential selling opportunity as the trend is down. We are monitoring the price action at these levels so as to identify possible selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as Gold has closed above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 29th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 94.45 – 93.00
    Target 1 : 97.30
    Target 2 : 99.00
    Stop : 92.00





    Comments
    Oil has this morning opened slightly negatively after yesterday experiencing a strong move up to the downward sloping trend line where selling came in.

    Oil on a swing basis continues to trade positively with the moving averages confirming the direction. The price action is now trading just above both averages. The bigger picture continues to be one where the price action is trading near the top of a large monthly converging triangle.

    Scenario 1
    We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible resumption of the uptrend with possible targets being the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00 respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively if Oil cannot close above the downward sloping trend line then a retest of the prior broken upward sloping trend line comes into focus.

    Definitions
    Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
    HH : Higher High
    HL : Higher Low
    LL : Lower Low
    LH : Lower High
    CofT : Change of Trend

  8. #68

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 30th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145
    Target 1 : 1.2795
    Target 2 : 1.2745
    Stop : 1.3245



    Comments
    EURUSD has this morning opened higher after yesterdays strong up day where it closed above the upward sloping trend line. Today’s opening range is 53 pips which equates to 55% of the daily average true range. The swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. However the price action has retraced and is trading between both short and long averages.
    In terms of the bigger picture the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. A prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance however in terms of the downward sloping trend line, the long average and Fibonacci resistance may put a brake on further upward momentum.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into the averages might offer shorting opportunities at resistance or if a clear negative divergence can be identified. The initial target for any down break would be the 17th May prior swing low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively EURUSD could continue its retracement up to the long average and Fibonacci resistance level.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 30th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    GBPUSD has this morning opened higher after yesterdays strong up day. Today’s opening range is 72 pips which equates to a 63% of the daily average true range. The swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages.

    In terms of the bigger picture the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. A prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance however in terms of the downward sloping trend line, the long average and Fibonacci resistance may put a brake on further upward momentum.
    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into the averages might offer shorting opportunities at resistance or if a clear negative divergence can be identified. The initial target for any down break would be the upward sloping trend line that may offer some support followed by the 12th March prior swing low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively GBPUSD could continue its retracement up to the long average and Fibonacci resistance level.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 30th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    USDCHF has this morning opened lower after yesterdays strong down day. Today’s opening range is 75 pips which equates to 62% of the daily average true range. The swing bias remains positive and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages.

    In terms of the bigger picture the price action has rejected the Fibonacci expansion areas in its attempt to reach the 0.9970 and parity levels and in the process has retraced to be just above Fibonacci support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up the retracement into the averages and possible further move into Fibonacci support might offer buying opportunities at support or if a clear positive divergence can be identified. The initial target for any down break would be the 22nd May prior swing high.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the price action could possibly continue its correction down to Fibonacci support and then the upward sloping trend line.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 30th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40
    Target 1 : 104.00
    Target 2 : 110.00
    Stop : 97.00




    Comments
    USDJPY has this morning opened lower after yesterdays strong down day. Today’s opening range is 106 pips which equates to 83% of the daily average true range. The swing bias remains positive and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages.

    In terms of the bigger picture the price action has retraced and is trading just above Fibonacci support. Furthermore a large RSI is positive divergence is forming.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up the retracement into the averages and possibly further into Fibonacci support may offer buying opportunities at support and this would be in line with the RSI positive divergence.

    We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.
    1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.
    2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.
    3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.
    4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.
    Scenario 2
    Alternatively USDJPY could continue its retracement down to the long average and Fibonacci support level and then potentially further to trend line support.

    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 30th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20





    Comments
    Gold has this morning opened higher after yesterdays up down day. Today’s opening range is 209 pips which equates to 68% of the daily average true range. The swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages.

    In terms of the bigger picture the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. A prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance however in terms of the long average and Fibonacci resistance may put a brake on further upward momentum. Furthermore TRSI is diverging negatively.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into the averages might possibly offer shorting opportunities at resistance or as in this case a negative divergence can be identified. The initial target for any down break would be the 20th May prior low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as Gold has closed above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 30th May 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 94.45 – 93.00
    Target 1 : 97.30
    Target 2 : 99.00
    Stop : 92.00




    Comments
    Oil has this morning opened unchanged after yesterdays strong down day. Today’s opening range is 57 pips which equates to 32% of the daily average true range. The swing bias remains positive and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages.

    The bigger picture continues to be one where the price action is trading near the top of a large monthly converging triangle. Furthermore we also we have had a breach and close beneath a prior broken upward sloping trend line and a move through a small Fibonacci support area

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up we are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible resumption of the uptrend with possible targets being the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00 respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as Oil has breached the prior broken upward sloping trend line a continued move down the 15th May swing low is a possibility.

  9. #69

    Default Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 03.06.2013

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 3rd June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145
    Target 1 : 1.2795
    Target 2 : 1.2745
    Stop : 1.3245





    Comments
    EURUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays down day. Today’s opening range is 35 pips which equates to 35% of the daily average true range.
    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. However the price action is trading and closed above both averages which could be viewed as the market being overbought when the market is in a down trend or the market bias attempting to change its position from negative to positive.
    If one was to move to the higher time frame Weekly chart it is easier to see that the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. Back to a daily time frame a prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance in terms of the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance may put a brake on further upward momentum. However one hurdle in terms closing above the long average has been overcome.
    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into Fibonacci resistance combined with overhead trend line resistance might offer shorting opportunities. However we have yet to notice any loss of momentum that could be identified by an oscillator divergence or candle stick pattern. The initial target for any down break would be the 17th May prior swing low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively EURUSD could continue its retracement so as to eventually breach the downward sloping trend line.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 3rd June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.5260 – 1.5470
    Target 1 : 1.5000
    Target 2 : 1.4865
    Stop : 1.5600




    Comments
    GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays weak down day. Today’s opening range is 39 pips which equates to a 35% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger picture he swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages.

    If one was to move to the higher time frame Weekly chart it is easier to see that the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. Back to a daily time frame a prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance however in terms Fibonacci resistance might limit further upward momentum.
    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into the averages might offer shorting opportunities. However we have yet to notice any loss of momentum that could be identified by an oscillator divergence or candle stick pattern. The initial target for any down break would be the upward sloping trend line that may offer some support followed by the 12th March prior swing low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively GBPUSD could continue its retracement up to the long average and Fibonacci resistance level.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 3rd June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40
    Target 1 : 104.00
    Target 2 : 110.00
    Stop : 97.00




    Comments
    USDJPY is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day. Today’s opening range is 49 pips which equates to 38% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains positive and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading at the long averages and just above Fibonacci support. Furthermore a large RSI is positive divergence is forming.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up the retracement into the averages and possibly further into Fibonacci support may offer buying opportunities at support and this would be in line with the RSI positive divergence.

    We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.
    1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.
    2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.
    3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.
    4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.
    Scenario 2
    Alternatively USDJPY could continue its retracement down to the long average and Fibonacci support level and then potentially further to trend line support.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 3rd June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 0.9550 – 0.9370
    Target 1 : 0.9840
    Target 2 : 0.9970
    Stop : 0.9245




    Comments
    USDCHF is this morning trading lower from the open lower after Fridays up day. Today’s opening range is 42 pips which equates to 35% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains positive and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages and is trading just inside Fibonacci support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up the retracement into the averages and possible further move into Fibonacci support might offer buying opportunities. However we have yet to notice any loss of momentum that could be identified by an oscillator divergence or candle stick pattern. The initial target for any down break would be the 22nd May prior swing high.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the price action could possibly continue its correction down into Fibonacci support and then the upward sloping trend line.



    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 3rd June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20





    Comments
    Gold is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays down day. Today’s opening range is 946 pips which equates to 29% of the daily average true range

    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. However the price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages. It would appear that Gold is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. A prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance however in terms of the long average and Fibonacci resistance may put a brake on further upward momentum.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into the averages might possibly offer shorting opportunities at resistance. The initial target for any down break would be the 20th May prior low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as Gold has closed above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play.


    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 3rd June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -




    Comments
    Oil is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays strong down day. Today’s opening range is 70 pips which equates to 38% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger price action continues to trade near the top of a large monthly converging triangle. However following the breach of the prior pivot low the swing bias has changed from positive to negative. This has coincided with breach of a prior broken upward sloping trend line.

    From a bullish perspective the moving averages however have yet to cross and confirm this new trend. Furthermore the price action has retraced and is trading just above Fibonacci support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend has changed to negative we are monitoring the possibility of continued move down into Fibonacci support.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as the price action is trading around Fibonacci we are monitoring the possibility of a bounce and even a resumption of the prior up trend with potential targets the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00
    respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.

  10. #70

    Default

    Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145
    Target 1 : 1.2795
    Target 2 : 1.2745
    Stop : 1.3245




    Comments
    EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day with that candle printing a piercing line. Today’s opening range is 24 pips which equates to 24% of the daily average true range.
    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. Furthermore we have the RSI is diverging positively negatively.
    However the price action is trading and closed above both averages which could be viewed as the market being overbought when the market is in a down trend or the market bias attempting to change its position from negative to positive.
    If one was to move to the higher time frame Weekly chart it is easier to see that the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. Back to a daily time frame a prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend.
    That the price action is trading at overhead resistance in terms of the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance may put a brake on further upward momentum. However one hurdle in terms closing above the long average has been overcome.
    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into Fibonacci resistance combined with overhead trend line resistance might offer shorting opportunities. However we have yet to notice any loss of momentum that could be identified by an oscillator divergence or candle stick pattern. The initial target for any down break would be the 17th May prior swing low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively EURUSD could continue its retracement so as to eventually breach the downward sloping trend line.


    Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1.5260 – 1.5470
    Target 1 : 1.5000
    Target 2 : 1.4865
    Stop : 1.5600





    Comments
    GBPUSD is this morning unchanged from the open after yesterdays strong up day with that candle printing a piercing line. Today’s opening range is 32 pips which equates to a 27% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger picture he swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading above both short and long averages.

    If one was to move to the higher time frame Weekly chart it is easier to see that the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established.
    Back to a daily time frame a prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance however in terms the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance might limit further upward momentum.
    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into overhead resistance being the averages might, Fibonacci resistance and the downward sloping trend line might offer shorting opportunities. However we have yet to notice any loss of momentum that could be identified by an oscillator divergence or candle stick pattern. The initial target for any down break would be the upward sloping trend line that may offer some support followed by the 12th March prior swing low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively GBPUSD could continue its upward momentum towards the downward sloping trend line.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 4th June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40
    Target 1 : 104.00
    Target 2 : 110.00
    Stop : 97.00




    Comments
    USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Today’s opening range is 99 pips which equates to 72% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains positive and the averages are confirming the market direction. However he price action has retraced and is currently trading under both the long averages and within Fibonacci support. Furthermore a large RSI is positive divergence is forming and trend line support is now very close.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up this deep retracement into the averages and Fibonacci support may offer buying opportunities. This would also be in line with the RSI positive divergence.

    We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.
    1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.
    2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.
    3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.
    4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.
    Scenario 2
    Alternatively USDJPY could continue its retracement potentially to trend line support and then the prior pivot swing low.


    Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Long
    Ambush Zone : 0.9550 – 0.9370
    Target 1 : 0.9840
    Target 2 : 0.9970
    Stop : 0.9245





    Comments
    USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open lower after yesterdays up day. Today’s opening range is 30 pips which equates to 24% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains positive and the averages are confirming the market direction. Furthermore there have been some significant trend line breaks to the upside which although have since retraced still puts a positive feel to USDCHF. This has been reinforced by the RSI is diverging positively.

    From the negative aspect the price action has retraced and is currently trading under both short and long averages and to the bottom end of the Fibonacci support range.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is up the deep retracement into the averages and possible further move into Fibonacci support could be interpreted as oversold and might offer buying opportunities. Now that a loss of momentum has been identified in that the weekly RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some extra weight. The initial target for any down break would be the 22nd May prior swing high.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively the price action could possibly continue its correction down into Fibonacci support and then the upward sloping trend line.


    Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85
    Target 1 : 1321.75
    Target 2 : 1308.08
    Stop : 1590.20




    Comments
    Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day with that candle printing a piercing line. Today’s opening range is 870 pips which equates to 27% of the daily average true range

    In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative and the averages are confirming the market direction. The RSI is diverging negatively and as the price action has retraced and is currently trading between both short and long averages. This could imply that resumption in downward momentum may possibly be imminent.

    From a bullish perspective it would appear that Gold is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established. A prior swing high breach would confirm a possible change of trend. Overhead resistance however in terms of the long average and Fibonacci resistance may put a brake on further upward momentum.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into the averages might possibly offer shorting opportunities at resistance. The initial target for any down break would be the 20th May prior low.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as Gold has closed above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play.


    Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th June 2013
    DAILY OVERVIEW
    Trend : Short
    Ambush Zone : -
    Target 1 : -
    Target 2 : -
    Stop : -





    Comments
    Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays strong up day with that candle printing a piercing line. Today’s opening range is 46 pips which equates to 25% of the daily average true range.

    In terms of the bigger price action continues to trade near the top of a large monthly converging triangle. However following the breach of the prior pivot low the swing bias has changed from positive to negative. This has coincided with breach of a prior broken upward sloping trend line. The averages have just crossed and our now confirming the market direction.

    From a bullish perspective the price action has retraced and is trading just above Fibonacci support.

    Scenario 1
    As the dominant daily trend has changed to negative we are monitoring the possibility of continued move down with corrective pullbacks offering possible selling opportunities.

    Scenario 2
    Alternatively as the price action is trading around Fibonacci support we are monitoring the possibility of a bounce and even a resumption of the prior up trend with potential targets the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00 respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.

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