Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 5th June 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short

Ambush Zone : 1.3015 – 1.3145

Target 1 : 1.2795

Target 2 : 1.2745

Stop : 1.3245

Comments

EURUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day which closed above the downward sloping trend line. Today’s opening range is 31 pips which equates to 31% of the daily average true range.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:

1. The averages are confirming the market direction.

2. The price action is trading above both negatively layered averages which can be viewed as over bought.

3. RSI continues to diverge negatively.

4. The price action has retraced deep into Fibonacci resistance.

5. The price action has managed to break above the downward sloping trend line which could be viewed as over bought.

Alternative counter trend bullish factors:

1. The price action has broken and closed above both averages.

2. The moving averages are attempting to cross positively.

3. The price action has broken above the downward sloping trend line which could be viewed as a warning of pending trend reversal to the upside.

4. If one was to move to the higher time frame Weekly chart it is easier to see that the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established.

Scenario 1

As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into Fibonacci resistance combined with trend line resistance might offer shorting opportunities. The initial target for any down break would be the 17th May prior swing low.

Scenario 2

Alternatively as EURUSD has now breached and closed above trend line resistance the long side may come into focus. However from a technical stand point a prior swing high breach would be required to confirm a change of trend.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 5th June 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short

Ambush Zone : 1.5260 – 1.5470

Target 1 : 1.5000

Target 2 : 1.4865

Stop : 1.5600

Comments

GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Today’s opening range is 43 pips which equates to a 38% of the daily average true range.

In terms of the bigger picture he swing bias remains negative.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:

1. The averages are confirming the market direction.

2. The price action is trading above both negatively layered averages which can be viewed as over bought.

3. The price action has retraced into Fibonacci resistance.

4. Overhead resistance however in terms the downward sloping trend line might limit further upward momentum.

Alternative counter trend bullish factors:

1. The price action has broken above and closed above both averages.

2. If one was to move to the higher time frame Weekly chart it is easier to see that the price action is in the process of forming a higher low but confirmation is required for a change of trend to be established.

3. No sign yet of a negative divergence in the weekly RSI.

Scenario 1

As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into overhead resistance being the averages might, Fibonacci resistance and the downward sloping trend line might offer shorting opportunities. However we have yet to notice any loss of momentum that could be identified by an oscillator divergence or candle stick pattern. The initial target for any down break would be the upward sloping trend line that may offer some support followed by the 12th March prior swing low.

Scenario 2

Alternatively GBPUSD could continue its upward momentum towards the downward sloping trend line. However from a technical stand point a prior swing high breach would be required to confirm a change of trend.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 5th June 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long

Ambush Zone : 100.50 – 98.40

Target 1 : 104.00

Target 2 : 110.00

Stop : 97.00

Comments

USDJPY is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Today’s opening range is 108 pips which equates to 77% of the daily average true range.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains positive.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:

1. The averages are confirming the market direction.

2. The price action is trading below both positively layered averages which can be viewed as over sold.

3. RSI continues to diverge positively.

4. The price action has retraced deep into Fibonacci support.

5. The price action is trading just upward sloping trend line support.

Alternative counter trend bearish factors:

1. The price action has broken beneath and closed above both averages.

2. The moving averages are attempting to cross negatively.

Scenario 1

As the dominant daily trend is up this deep retracement into the averages and Fibonacci support may offer buying opportunities. This would also be in line with the RSI positive divergence.

We have identified the following levels as possible long targets.

1. A retouch of 104.00 being the 161.80 Fibonacci Expansion target.

2. The 105.00 level being the 200 percent Fibonacci Expansion target.

3. Around 108.00 being long term trend line resistance.

4. 110.00 being a prior Swing High Pivot.

Scenario 2

Alternatively USDJPY could continue its retracement potentially to trend line support and then the prior pivot swing low. . However from a technical stand point a prior swing low breach would be required to confirm a change of trend.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 5th June 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long

Ambush Zone : 0.9550 – 0.9370

Target 1 : 0.9840

Target 2 : 0.9970

Stop : 0.9245

Comments

USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open lower after yesterdays marginal down day. Today’s opening range is 38 pips which equates to 31% of the daily average true range.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains positive.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:

1. The averages are confirming the market direction.

2. The price action is trading beneath both positively layered averages which can be viewed as over sold.

3. RSI continues to diverge positively.

4. The price action has retraced deep into Fibonacci support.

5. The price action has managed to break below the downward sloping trend line which could be viewed as over sold.

Alternative counter trend bullish factors:

1. The price action has broken and closed below both averages.

2. The moving averages are attempting to cross negatively.

3. The price action has broken beneath the downward sloping trend line which could be viewed as a warning of pending trend reversal to the downside.

Scenario 1

As the dominant daily trend is up the deep retracement into the averages and possible further move into Fibonacci support could be interpreted as oversold and might offer buying opportunities. Now that a loss of momentum has been identified in that the weekly RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some extra weight. The initial target for any down break would be the 22nd May prior swing high.

Scenario 2

Alternatively the price action could possibly continue its correction down into Fibonacci support and then the downward sloping trend line. . However from a technical stand point a prior swing low breach would be required to confirm a change of trend.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 5th June 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short

Ambush Zone : 1452.60 – 1525.85

Target 1 : 1321.75

Target 2 : 1308.08

Stop : 1590.20

Comments

Gold is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Today’s opening range is 108 pips which equates to 34% of the daily average true range

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:

1. The averages are confirming the market direction.

2. The price action is trading between both negatively layered averages which can be viewed as a possible shorting area.

3. RSI continues to diverge negatively.

4. The price action is approaching Fibonacci resistance.

Alternative counter trend bullish factors:

1. The moving averages are both rising and converging and converging which could be a sign of a potential positive cross over.

2. If one was to move to the higher time frame Weekly chart it is easier to see that the price action is in the process of forming a higher low.

3. There is still some distance between the current price and Fibonacci resistance which gives the price action some space to pull back further.

Scenario 1

As the dominant daily trend is down the retracement into the averages might possibly offer shorting opportunities at resistance. The initial target for any down break would be the 20th May prior low.

Scenario 2

Alternatively as Gold has closed above the 8 period moving averages the potential for a move to Fibonacci resistance comes into play. However from a technical stand point a prior swing high breach would be required to confirm a change of trend.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 5th June 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short

Ambush Zone : -

Target 1 : -

Target 2 : -

Stop : -

Comments

Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays strong up day that closed above a prior broken upward sloping trend line. Today’s opening range is 47 pips which equates to 25% of the daily average true range.

The price action continues to trade near the top of a large monthly converging triangle. However following the breach of the prior pivot low the swing bias has changed from positive to negative.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:

1. The averages are confirming the market direction.

2. The price action is trading within negatively layered averages which can be viewed as possible shorting area.

Alternative counter trend bullish factors:

1. The price action has broken and closed above both averages which could be viewed as over bought.

2. The price action has broken above the upward sloping trend line which could be viewed as a warning of pending trend reversion to the upside.

3. From a bullish perspective the price action has retraced and is trading just above Fibonacci support.

4. No sign yet of a negative divergence in the weekly RSI.

Scenario 1

As the dominant daily trend has changed to negative we are monitoring the possibility of continued move down with corrective pullbacks offering possible selling opportunities.

Scenario 2

Alternatively as the price action is trading around Fibonacci support we are monitoring the possibility of a bounce and even a resumption of the prior up trend with potential targets the 100 % and 138.2% Fibonacci Expansion level in the areas of 99.00 and 103.00 respectively. However the psychological 100.00 level will need to be broken for any further upside to continue.