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Thread: Daily Market Roundup from FXCC

  1. #41

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 06 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 06 2013

    EUR/USD still searching for direction after busy week of economic data

    After what was an extremely busy week of economic releases and central bank monetary policy meetings, the EUR/USD finished the week up 87 pips at 1.3116. The price action remains extremely choppy with neither side being able to sustain any follow through for a substantial amount of time. Many analysts are now wondering whether or not the “risk on” mentality which was boosted by the better than expected US Jobs data will have any follow through going into upcoming week and how will it influence the foreign exchange market.

    According to Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management, “Investors put on their rose colored glasses today and drove currencies and equities sharply higher on the back of stronger job growth in the month of April. At a time when other central banks like the ECB and BoJ are kick starting a new round of easing, the better than expected labor market report will keep the Fed comfortably on hold. The question now is whether the payroll driven rally in FX (and stocks) will last. With far less important data on the calendar next week, we think investors will remain optimistic.”
    Forex Technical & Market Analysis: May 06 2013


    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-05-06 13:00 GMT | EU.ECB President Draghi's Speech
    2013-05-06 14:00 GMT | CA.Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Apr)
    2013-05-06 14:00 GMT | CA.Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Apr)
    2013-05-06 23:30 GMT | AUD.AiG Performance of Construction Index (Apr)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-05-06 04:09 GMT | EUR/USD still searching for direction after busy week of economic data
    2013-05-06 03:18 GMT | GBP/JPY notches highest close since August 2009
    2013-05-06 01:44 GMT | AUD/USD edges lower after weak Aussie retail sales number
    2013-05-06 01:02 GMT | NZD/USD edges higher in early Asia trade

    ------------------
    Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD :



    MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.3156 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 1.3185 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 1.3219 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, instrument retests our next support level at 1.3117 (S1) today. Market decline below it would create a stronger bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 1.3084 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.3057 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3156, 1.3185, 1.3219

    Support Levels: 1.3117, 1.3084, 1.3057

    ----------------
    Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD :



    Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5525 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5546 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5571 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to 1.5481 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5454 (S2) and 1.5426 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5525, 1.5546, 1.5571

    Support Levels: 1.5481, 1.5454, 1.5426

    ----------------
    Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY :



    Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 92.02 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 98.16 (R2) and 98.30 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 97.59 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 97.42 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 97.27 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.02, 98.16, 98.30

    Support Levels: 97.59, 97.42, 97.27

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Learn Forex Training | ECN Forex Account | forex trader blog | FXCC )

  2. #42

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 04 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 04 2013

    EUR - Beware of the ECB

    Since the last ECB meeting, we have seen more improvements than deterioration in the Eurozone economy. In Germany specifically, consumer spending has been healthy, unemployment rolls have declined, leading to an improvement in business and investor confidence. However the strength was not without areas of weakness. Businesses and investors grew more optimistic about future economic activity but more grim about current activity. Considering that the current performance of the economy is what really matters, the ECB may look beyond everyone's hope for improvement. Also stronger service sector activity in the region's largest economy was offset by a deeper contraction in manufacturing. So as you can see the recovery in the Eurozone is uneven and when combined with a 5% sell-off in the DAX, since the last meeting the ECB has very little to be optimistic about.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-07-04 08:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
    2013-07-04 11:00 GMT | UK. BoE Interest Rate Decision
    2013-07-04 11:45 GMT | EMU. ECB Interest Rate Decision
    2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | EMU. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-04 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD lingers at 1.30, awaits the ECB
    2013-07-04 04:59 GMT | NZD/USD flat for the session unable to overcome the 0.78 handle
    2013-07-04 04:17 GMT | GBP/USD retraces into 1.5250 post bullish engulfing day
    2013-07-04 03:23 GMT | AUD/USD jumps on RBA Lowe's comments


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30233 LOW 1.29875 BID 1.29937 ASK 1.29943 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 23:05



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3015 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3053 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the downtrend development is seen below the support level at 1.2984 (S1). Weakening below this mark might clear the way towards to immediate supports at 1.2965 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3). ECB interest rate announcement is a key factor today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3035, 1.3053
    Support Levels: 1.2984, 1.2965, 1.2945

    --------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.52831 LOW 1.52513 BID 1.52575 ASK 1.52583 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 23:06



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable prior BOE interest rate decision, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.5293 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our resistive means at 1.5316 (R2) and 1.5341 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5238 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5213 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5186 (S3)

    Resistance Levels: 1.5293, 1.5316, 1.5341
    Support Levels: 1.5238, 1.5213, 1.5186

    ---------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.091 LOW 99.692 BID 99.847 ASK 99.849 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 23:07



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 100.42 (R2) and then mark at 100.70 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 99.63 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 99.36 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 99.09 (S3) mark.

    Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.42, 100.70
    Support Levels: 99.63, 99.36, 99.09

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  3. #43

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 05 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 05 2013

    EUR and GBP Crushed by ECB and BoE

    Big moves are happening in the FX market yesterday. The euro and British pound dropped to 5 week lows against the U.S. dollar, taking out key levels in the process. The absence of U.S. traders most likely compounded the volatility in currencies. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged but Mario Draghi and Mark Carney made it clear that both central banks have a bias to ease. The dovish comments from European central bankers were motivated by the recent volatility in interest rates and a desire to set themselves apart from the Federal Reserve who is on a path to reduce stimulus. The ECB and the BoE wants everyone to know that they are still prepared to increase stimulus if the volatility in the bond markets persist or their economies weaken. In the Eurozone in particular, the EUR/USD dropped through 1.30 and 1.29. The currency started to fall as soon as Draghi said that policy will remains accommodative as long as needed, there are downside risks to their economic outlook and rates will stay low for an extended period of time. The sell-off gained momentum when the central bank took the unprecedented step of forward guidance. The ECB said there is no exit in sight, they are keeping rates low for an extended period of time, their decision will be data dependent and they are keeping an open mind on negative deposit rates. Draghi also reminded everyone that the central bank is "technically ready" for negative rates. They had an extensive discussion about the possibility of a rate cut and unanimously decided that the guidance was needed which included saying that 50bp is not the lower bound. The central bank is screaming their bias to ease from the top of the mountain - they don't want to leave any room for ambiguity because the risk could be a further rise in yields. Having dropped below 1.29, the next support for the EUR/USD should be at 1.28.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-07-05 10:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
    2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate
    2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | USA. Nonfarm Payrolls
    2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | USA. Unemployment Rate


    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-05 04:51 GMT | EUR/GBP limited below 0.8580 asks
    2013-07-05 04:46 GMT | NFP amid low liquidity; drastic moves ahead?
    2013-07-05 04:22 GMT | GBP/USD hovering around 1.5050
    2013-07-05 03:39 GMT | AUD/USD extends decline below 0.9130


    EURUSD
    HIGH 1.29166 LOW 1.28878 BID 1.28983 ASK 1.28988 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 24:40



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.2931 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.2952 (R2) and 1.2974 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right above the yesterday low at 1.2881 (S1). Clearance here is required to open way towards to our interim target at 1.2862 (S2) and then final aim locates at 1.2842 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.2931, 1.2952, 1.2974
    Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2862, 1.2842

    -------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.50777 LOW 1.50268 BID 1.50465 ASK 1.50478 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 24:41



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Nonfarm Payrolls announcement might change overall technical structure. We see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 1.5090 (R1). Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5120 (R2) and 1.5151 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5024 (S1). A fall below it might prolong medium-term weakness towards to next support at 1.4992 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support at 1.4959 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5090, 1.5120, 1.5151
    Support Levels: 1.5024, 1.4992, 1.4959

    --------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.458 LOW 99.999 BID 100.257 ASK 100.261 CHANGE 0.22% TIME 08 : 24:42



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Neutral tone dominates on the hourly chart frame. Local high offers an important resistive structure at 100.45 (R1). Any penetration above that level would suggest next targets at 100.68 (R2) and 100.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is limited to the next support level at 100.15 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 99.92 (S2) and 99.70 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.45, 100.68, 100.90
    Support Levels: 100.15, 99.92, 99.70

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  4. #44

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 08 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 08 2013

    ECB members had heated clash over last rate decision

    ECB Governing Council members had a confrontational approach over interest rates at their latest board meeting on Thursday, according to German weekly Der Spiegel, citing no sources, the MNI newswire reports. Der Spiegel claims to have obtained insights over the dovish views from ECB chief economist Peter Praet, who proposed to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp in the last meeting, an action that ECB President Mario Draghi would have supported.

    However, as MNI reports, "seven board members, mainly from northern European member states, were arguing sharply against a rate cut last week, the magazine reported." Der Spiegel reports German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot as well as ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, as the most notoriously opposed to it. As is well known, the final decision taken by the board was to unanimously keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% while providing forward guidance on low rates. Draghi's said that "broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics" will keep rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    24h | All. Eurogroup Meeting
    2013-07-08 13:30 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
    2013-07-08 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (Q2)
    2013-07-08 19:00 GMT | USA. Consumer Credit Change

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-08 04:59 GMT | Calls to buy USD all over; time to be sellers?
    2013-07-08 04:26 GMT | GBP/USD strongly capped below 1.4900
    2013-07-08 03:40 GMT | Buy AUD/NZD targeting 1.2130/70 - Societe Generale
    2013-07-08 03:38 GMT | AUD/CAD depressed below 0.96 round

    ------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.28319 LOW 1.28106 BID 1.28169 ASK 1.28173 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 30:00



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.2852 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2905 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday low offers a key support barrier at 1.2805 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2781 (S2) and 1.2757 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 1.2852, 1.2879, 1.2905
    Support Levels: 1.2805, 1.2781, 1.2757

    ----------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.48824 LOW 1.48582 BID 1.48765 ASK 1.48774 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 30:01



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.4923 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead would enable corrective phase, targeting resistive measures at 1.4962 (R2) and 1.4999 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 1.4853 (S1), it is likely to trigger our next support level at 1.4818 (S2) and 1.4782 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.4923, 1.4962, 1.4999
    Support Levels: 1.4853, 1.4818, 1.4782

    -----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 101.531 LOW 101.06 BID 101.095 ASK 101.100 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08:30:02



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Uptrend evolvement remains in power. Further appreciation above the resistive barrier at 101.53 (R1) is liable to next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible retracement action might get more stimulus below the support level at 100.87 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 100.58 (S2) and any weakening below it would then face final support at 100.28 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09
    Support Levels: 100.87, 100.58, 100.28

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  5. #45

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 09 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 09 2013

    Troika approves next disbursment to Greece

    Troika officials struck a deal with Greece this Monday, allowing the debt-laden country to receive its next tranche of funds, totalling The money, totaling 6.8bn euros ($8.7bn). The troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be responsible to make the funds available end of the month. Eurozone finance ministers indicated earlier today that 2.5bn euros would come from the eurozone rescue fund and 1.5bn euros, while the European Central Bank will contribute with another 1.5bn euros. It is thought that an additional 500m euros from both the EZ rescue fund and the ECB will be transferred in October. The IMF will add the remaining 1.8bn euros.

    The loans are subject to Greece showing a committal approach towards the country's fiscal path, with the Troika demanding further cuts and a faster implementation of its reform programme, one that has brought the country to its knees. Despite so, the Troika continues to underline the slow progress seen so far, as the country continues to struggle through an era of depression.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    24h | EcoFin Meeting
    2013-07-09 08:30 GMT | UK. Manufacturing Production (YoY)
    2013-07-09 12:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY)
    2013-07-09 14:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-09 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.4950
    2013-07-09 04:50 GMT | EUR/USD aiming at 2nd daily gain
    2013-07-09 03:09 GMT | NZD/USD back around 0.78 post-China CPI
    2013-07-09 03:02 GMT | AUD/JPY setting stage for a 92.50 breakout?

    -----------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.28711 LOW 1.2846 BID 1.28677 ASK 1.28683 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 33:00



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 1.2892 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2909 (R2) and 1.2926 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.2844 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to our initial targets at 1.2826 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.2892, 1.2909, 1.2926
    Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2826, 1.2806

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.4953 LOW 1.49199 BID 1.49434 ASK 1.49442 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 33:01



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive measure at 1.4968 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.4999 (R2) and 1.5029 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.4918 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.4884 (S2) and 1.4851 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.4968, 1.4999, 1.5029
    Support Levels: 1.4918, 1.4884, 1.4851

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 101.243 LOW 100.768 BID 101.147 ASK 101.151 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08 : 33:02



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 101.41 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 101.70 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 101.97 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 100.76 (S1) is required to enable further market decline. Our next supportive measures locates at 100.49 (S2) and 100.21 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 101.41, 101.70, 101.97
    Support Levels: 100.76, 100.49, 100.21

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  6. #46

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 10 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 10 2013

    S&P downgrades Italy to BBB, outlook negative

    Ratings Agency Standard & Poor's decided to downgrade Italy on Tuesday, cutting the rating to BBB from BBB+. According to S&P, this action reflects their view of the effects of further weakening growth on Italy's economic structure and resilience, and its impaired monetary transmission mechanism. S&P also left their outlook at negative, meaning there is at least one-in-three chance that the rating could be lowered again in 2013 or 2014.

    The highlights today will be the FOMC Minutes and Bernanke’s Speech and until then I don’t see an awful lot to move things around. The 4 hour charts are showing some minor bullish divergence and we could see the odd bounce but the dailies continue to point lower and I suspect that the low 1.2700 area will soon be tested. In the meantime leave room for bounces as the 4 hour charts unwind. We will be adding to our shorts if we see a bounce into the 1.2850/1.2900 in the coming session. German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech Economic data highlights will include: German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-07-10 17:00 GMT | USA. 10-Year Note Auction
    2013-07-10 18:00 GMT | USA. FOMC Minutes
    2013-07-10 20:10 GMT | USA. Fed's Bernanke Speech
    N/A | Japan. Monetary Policy Statement

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-10 05:05 GMT | USD/JPY cracks 101.80 support
    2013-07-10 04:28 GMT | GBP/USD finds buyers above 1.4850
    2013-07-10 03:56 GMT | EUR/USD unable to regain the 1.28 handle
    2013-07-10 03:09 GMT | Gold eases below $1250; Oil below $104


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.27868 LOW 1.27648 BID 1.27823 ASK 1.27828 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 13:47



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.2805 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next targets at 1.2833 (R2) and 1.2862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.2754 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2727 (S2) and 1.2699 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 1.2805, 1.2833, 1.2862
    Support Levels: 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2699

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.48973 LOW 1.48451 BID 1.48948 ASK 1.48958 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 08 : 13:48



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.4926 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.4972 (R2) and 1.5018 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low provides an important supportive mark at 1.4813 (S1). Any penetration below this level would suggest next targets at 1.4767 (S2) and 1.4722 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 1.4926, 1.4972, 1.5018
    Support Levels: 1.4813, 1.4767, 1.4722

    ---------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 101.216 LOW 100.374 BID 100.405 ASK 100.410 CHANGE -0.74% TIME 08 : 13:49



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 100.76 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 101.02 (R2) and then final aim could be found at 101.29 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the support level at 100.15 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 99.87 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 99.63 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.76, 101.02, 101.29
    Support Levels: 100.15, 99.87, 99.63

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  7. #47

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 12 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 12 2013

    ECB Monthly Report: Interest rates could be reduced further

    The ECB signalized in its July Monthly Report that interest rates could be reduced further, should the price stability outlook warrant it. The recently introduced forward guidance was also included: “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.” There was also some clarification of its time horizon: “The extended period of time over which the Governing Council currently expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels is a flexible horizon which does not pre-specify an end-date but is conditional on the Governing Council’s assessment of the economic fundamentals that determine underlying inflation."

    Furthermore, the Council pointed to recent improvements in Eurozone sentiment indicators which suggest a gradual recovery of the economy later this year and in 2014. To support it, the ECB is prepared to maintain the accomodative monetary policy for as long as necessary. The accomodative policy should prop up domestic demand while the recovery in global demand should boost export growth in the area. Additionally, the Governing Council suggested that “the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation.”
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-07-12 09:00 GMT | EMU. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
    2013-07-12 12:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY)
    2013-07-12 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment
    2013-07-12 17:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Bullard speech

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-12 04:44 GMT | GBP/USD eases below 1.5200
    2013-07-12 03:27 GMT | Gold below $1290, Oil above $104
    2013-07-12 02:41 GMT | AUD/USD defending 0.9130 support
    2013-07-12 01:42 GMT | USD/JPY breaks through stops at 99.10

    -----------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.31002 LOW 1.30728 BID 1.30752 ASK 1.30756 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 26:43



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Fractals level at 1.3124 (R1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.3167 (R2). Final support for today locates at 1.3208 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays above the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be positive. Though extension lower the 1.3028 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3124, 1.3167, 1.3208
    Support Levels: 1.3028, 1.2988, 1.2945

    ------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.5189 LOW 1.51666 BID 1.51702 ASK 1.51710 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 26:44



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 1.5222 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5250 (R2) and 1.5278 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next supportive mark locates at 1.5145 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift short-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next targets at 1.5117 (S2) and 1.5088 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5222, 1.5250, 1.5278
    Support Levels: 1.5145, 1.5117, 1.5088

    -------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.321 LOW 98.675 BID 99.048 ASK 99.048 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 26:45



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the initial downtrend formation. Break of resistive level at 99.36 (R1) is required to enable recovery action. Our intraday targets are placed at 99.68 (R2) and 99.98 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for US Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 98.67 (S1), clearance here is required to enable lower targets at 98.36 (S2) and 98.06 (S3)

    Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.68, 99.98
    Support Levels: 98.67, 98.36, 98.06

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  8. #48

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 15 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 15 2013

    Fitch downgrades France to AA+ from AAA

    Fitch Ratings has downgraded France to AA+ from AAA on Friday, keeping a stable outlook on the country's debt. Fitch, which joins S&P and Moody's in removing the country's AAA rating, cited the high level of the French government indebtedness as one of the main reasons of the downgrade. Fitch expects France's general government debt to peak at 96% of GDP in 2014 and decline only gradually over the long term, remaining at 92% in 2017. "The only 'AAA' country with a higher debt ratio is the U.S. (AAA/negative), which has exceptional financing flexibility and debt tolerance afforded by the preeminent global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar," Fitch said in a statement.

    Standard & Poor's has affirmed on Friday Germany's top triple-A sovereign credit rating, with a stable outlook. The rating agency justified its decision saying that “Germany has a highly diversified and competitive economy with a demonstrated ability to absorb large economic and financial shocks.” As far as the outlook on the long-term rating is concerned, S&P's decision to keep it 'stable' reflects their view that: “Germany's public finances and strong external balance sheet will continue to withstand potential financial and economic shocks.”
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-07-15 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Producer and Import Prices (YoY)
    2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Tarullo speech
    2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM)
    2013-07-15 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-15 04:56 GMT | GBP/USD treading water above 1.5100
    2013-07-15 03:49 GMT | AUD/USD exposed to 0.80/0.85 fall - RBS
    2013-07-15 03:35 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.2930-80 key to technical outlook - BBH
    2013-07-15 02:39 GMT | USD/JPY flat above 99.00 with Tokyo closed

    ---------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3079 LOW 1.30513 BID 1.30773 ASK 1.30773 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08:00:33



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: With limited economic data flow today we expect further neutral tone development. However, price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3124 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 1.3157 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.3044 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3008 (S2) and 1.2974 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3124, 1.3157
    Support Levels: 1.3044, 1.3008, 1.2974

    ----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.51287 LOW 1.5098 BID 1.51257 ASK 1.51268 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08:00:33



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5141 (R1). Break here is required to prolong upside pressure and trigger our intraday targets at 1.5173(R2) and 1.5203 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.5088 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.5059 (S2) and 1.5028 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5141, 1.5173, 1.5203
    Support Levels: 1.5088, 1.5059, 1.5028

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.383 LOW 99.074 BID 99.271 ASK 99.272 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:00:34



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 99.46 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 99.68 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 99.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 99.03 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.83 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 98.61 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 99.46, 99.68, 99.90
    Support Levels: 99.03, 98.83, 98.61

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  9. #49

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 16 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 16 2013

    Dovish ECB, soft US retail sales balance each other out. Waiting on Bernanke – again!

    Dovish talk from the ECB undermined the Euro before the softer than expected US Retail Sales turned things around, sending the US dollar slightly lower. Markets are likely to be on hold ahead of Bernanke’s testimony to Congress although equities and commodities both looks solid in the short term. A mix of data out of the EU and the US could make it a bit choppy later in the day. Before then, the RBA Minutes will be Asia’s focus.

    The Euro has had a choppy but mostly uninteresting session, hanging close to 1.3000 as the northern hemisphere summer doldrums look to be well upon us. Early dovish comments from the ECB’s Hansson, indicating that there is room to cut rates further and that negative interest rates should not be ruled out helped push the Euro lower early in the session, before a bit of a turnaround following the softer than expected US retail Sales, that saw the dollar come under some pressure of its own. Fitch downgraded the EFSF – European Financial Stability Facility- to AA+ from AAA, which, following on from the recent France downgrade, had precisely no effect on the Euro at all.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter
    2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
    2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY
    2013-07-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-16 04:46 GMT | GBP/USD stable above 1.51 ahead of UK&US CPI's
    2013-07-16 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD pressing against 1.3080
    2013-07-16 03:10 GMT | NZD/USD seen at 0.78 year end - BNZ
    2013-07-16 02:07 GMT | AUD/USD targets 0.9188, dip buyers on the rise

    -------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30758 LOW 1.30527 BID 1.30716 ASK 1.30722 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 21:26



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3092 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3132 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3171 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, clearance of our support at 1.3049 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3010 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final support at 1.2969 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3132, 1.3171
    Support Levels: 1.3049, 1.3010, 1.2969

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.51167 LOW 1.50909 BID 1.51066 ASK 1.51078 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 21:27



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5132 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5173 (R2) and 1.5216 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 1.5086 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 1.5046 (S2) and 1.5004 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5132, 1.5173, 1.5216
    Support Levels: 1.5086, 1.5046, 1.5004

    -------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.068 LOW 99.647 BID 99.805 ASK 99.807 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 21:27



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed its consolidation phase yesterday and we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 100.33 (R2) and 100.60 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 100.06 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 99.62 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 99.35 (S2) and 99.06 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.06, 100.33, 100.60
    Support Levels: 99.62, 99.35, 99.06

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  10. #50

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 18 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 18 2013

    Fed's Bernanke: Asset purchases not 'on a preset course'

    According to the prepared text of Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech, to be delivered later today during his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, the pace of the Federal Reserve's bond purchases is not 'on a preset course', as it depends on the current economic and financial situation. The Fed head assured that signs of recovery are visible in the US labor market, but that “the jobs situation is far from satisfactory, as the unemployment rate remains well above its longer-run normal level.” He also pointed out that inflation is still below the Fed's 2% target. That is why “a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.”

    As far as QE is concerned, Bernanke stressed that the decision on when the tapering should begin depends on the Fed's assessment of the US economic outlook. Should economic data improve earlier than forecasted and inflation rise towards the objective, a reduction could be carried out sooner. Otherwise, “the current pace of purchases could be maintained for longer.” According to Rob Carnell from ING: ”This speech neither contradicts nor supports the notion that the taper begins in September. The taper might begin then. But as we have written elsewhere, there are quite good reasons why it may occur somewhat later. Not that it really matters all that much anyway – given that the Fed funds decision is one that will be taken independently from QE.”
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-07-18 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY)
    2013-07-18 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims
    2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech
    2013-07-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. Foreign bond investment

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-18 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD breaks below 1.52 ahead of UK retail sales
    2013-07-18 04:31 GMT | USD/JPY above 100 again ahead of Sunday's elections
    2013-07-18 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD breaks 1.32, needs to clear 1.3180
    2013-07-18 04:04 GMT | AUD/USD trips stop losses below 0.9170


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.31271 LOW 1.3091 BID 1.30962 ASK 1.30968 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 24:12



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly timeframe. Potential to move higher is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3147 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3210 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3081 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3050 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3019 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3147, 1.3179, 1.3210
    Support Levels: 1.3081, 1.3050, 1.3019

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.52232 LOW 1.51728 BID 1.51789 ASK 1.51799 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 24:12



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5223 (R1), keeping the ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5252 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5281 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.5152 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.5124 (S2) and 1.5095 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5223, 1.5252, 1.5281
    Support Levels: 1.5152, 1.5124, 1.5095

    ------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.18 LOW 99.463 BID 100.085 ASK 100.088 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 08 : 24:13



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume uptrend structure towards to next target at 100.41 (R2) and any further price appreciation would then be limited to 100.61 (R3) mark. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 99.84 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 99.64 (S2) and 99.44 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61
    Support Levels: 99.84, 99.64, 99.44

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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