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Thread: Daily Market Roundup from FXCC

  1. #81

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 17 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 17 2013

    The Fed to maintain forward guidance with firm tone, says Hilsenrath

    The Federal Reserve is struggling to justify extending forward guidance as part of its strategy to maintain the recovery path according to Fedwatcher Jon Hilsenrath in his latest article on the FOMC policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to publish its interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 18 and market is widely expecting the Fed to start its cut in the bond buying program. The Fedwatcher affirmed in his piece that "Federal Reserve officials face a communication challenge explaining their interest-rate plans when they gather for a policy meeting this week."

    Their challenge is "how to justify the low interest-rate plan when their own estimates suggest an economy regaining its health." According to Hilsenrath, Fed forecasts could show "rates rising but still low" by 2016. The Fed also expects economy at "full employment" by the same year. The decision on QE tapering the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is now a close call "on whether to start pulling back on the QE." The Fed is now changing its emphasis from bond buying to the "low-rate pledge."
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-17 08:30 GMT : UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
    2013-09-17 09:00 GMT : EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Aug)
    2013-09-17 12:30 GMT : US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
    2013-09-17 13:00 GMT : US Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-17 05:29 GMT : NZD/USD downwards in tandem with “Aussie”
    2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/USD sails below EMA20 - extending trading range
    2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/GBP still under the 0.84 handle ahead of German ZEW & UK CPI
    2013-09-17 04:16 GMT : AUD/JPY pops up after RBA minutes

    -----------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.33422 LOW 1.33252 BID 1.33396 ASK 1.33398 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 56:12



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
    TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.3361 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and then 1.3405 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 1.3321 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and gradually push the price towards to our intraday targets at 1.3298 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3361, 1.3384, 1.3405
    Support Levels: 1.3321, 1.3298, 1.3275

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.59151 LOW 1.58884 BID 1.59091 ASK 1.59098 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 56:13



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
    TREND CONDITION Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD resumed upwards penetration today and we see potential to expose our intraday targets at 1.5996 (R2) and 1.6030 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5964 (R1). Downwards scenario: Though, we still keep the bearish scenario in focus. Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.5888 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 1.5853 (S2) and 1.5818 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5964, 1.5996, 1.6030
    Support Levels: 1.5888, 1.5853, 1.5818

    -------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.358 LOW 99.009 BID 99.145 ASK 99.147 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 56:14



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
    TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

    Upwards scenario: Price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 99.36 (R1). Our interim target holds at 99.56 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: However if the price manages to break our key support level at 99.00 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 98.79 (S2) and 98.58 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.56, 99.77
    Support Levels: 99.00, 98.79, 98.58

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  2. #82

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 18 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 18 2013
    All eyes on the Fed as investors weigh September taper odds

    As the September Fed monetary policy meeting is drawing near, the debate on the FOMC's possible decision to start scaling back the asset purchase program is becoming more and more heated. Recent developments, such as the disappointing August NFP numbers, as well as the ongoing Syrian conflict, have shaken economists' confidence as to whether the QE taper will really be initiated next week. “With a job market 'far from satisfactory' and a promise to adjust monetary policy depending on economic conditions, it would not be a surprise if the Fed postpones the reduction of monthly asset purchases until the next meeting in late October,” Ilian Yotov suggests. Alexandra Estiot also doesn't expect the Fed to make the move at the upcoming meeting, reasoning that “the likeliness of inflation pressures showing up is close to zero,” which means “the cost, in terms of inflation, of ending QE3 too late is nil, while the benefits, even if very difficult to clearly assess, are positive.” Despite the doubts about whether the Fed will start reducing QE in September, all of the economists agree with Steve Ruffley that the FOMC “are planning to taper by the end of the year and nothing will change this.”
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-18 08:30 GMT | Bank of England Minutes
    2013-09-18 18:00 GMT | US Fed Interest Rate Decision
    2013-09-18 18:30 GMT | US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
    2013-09-18 22:45 GMT | NZ Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-18 05:21 GMT | USD/CHF muted ahead of FOMC minutes
    2013-09-18 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD rebounds from ST dip but remains below 1.3432 ceiling ahead of US data / news
    2013-09-18 04:58 GMT | EUR/GBP battling to recover the 0.84 handle ahead of BoE
    2013-09-18 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD holding below the flat line ahead of BOE minutes and FOMC fun


    -------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.33639 LOW 1.33468 BID 1.33619 ASK 1.33621 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 43:12



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation mode on the hourly chart frame after the initial uptrend formation. Next resistive barrier is seen at 1.3384 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.3405 (R2) and 1.3427 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3324 (S1). A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3301 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3384, 1.3405, 1.3427
    Support Levels: 1.3324, 1.3301, 1.3275

    ----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.59146 LOW 1.58919 BID 1.59133 ASK 1.59136 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 43:13



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Local high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5936 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5971 (R2) and 1.6008 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the support level at 1.5885 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.5851 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.5816 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5936, 1.5971, 1.6008
    Support Levels: 1.5885, 1.5851, 1.5816

    -------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.336 LOW 99.103 BID 99.194 ASK 99.197 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 43:13



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 99.38 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 99.58 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, we see potential to positively retest our supportive measure at 99.03 (S1). Clearance here is required to open route towards to our initial targets at 98.84 (S2) and 98.64 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 99.38, 99.58, 99.77
    Support Levels: 99.03, 98.84, 98.64

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  3. #83

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 19 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 19 2013

    The Fed decides to maintain the status quo; No taper

    The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Same story with the bond buying pace at $85Bn as officials need more information that the economy is growing at a sustainable pace. According to a recent press release, the Fed affirms that the pace of bond purchases depends on the economic outlook. The inflation is still low, financial market conditions are tight while the fiscal retrenchment could be damaging, so the FOMC needs more signs of progress.

    "Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month." The Fed has lowered its growth expectations and now officials forecast the US GDP to slowdown in 2016 to 2.5%-3.3% range, from 3.0%-3.5% in 2014. They see 2013 to show a 2.0%-2.3% growth in the United States. The unemployment rate is expected to finish the year around 7.2%-7.3% and to decline to 6.5%-6.8% in 2014, 5.8%-6.2% in 2015 and 5.4%-5.9% in 2016.
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-19 07:30 GMT | SW SNB Interest Rate Decision
    2013-09-19 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
    2013-09-19 14:00 GMT | US Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Aug)
    2013-09-19 23:50 GMT | JP Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Sep 13)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-19 04:52 GMT | USD licking its wounds; China markets closed
    2013-09-19 04:34 GMT | USD/CHF slightly lower at 0.9119 ahead of big data; ultimate dowside may be 0.9073
    2013-09-19 04:33 GMT | Fed relies heavily on low yields regarding “tapering” – RBS
    2013-09-19 04:18 GMT | AUD/USD slightly downwards but still dancing close to 0.9500 area

    ----------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3536 LOW 1.3501 BID 1.35318 ASK 1.35320 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 40:15



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly bullish oriented, however, to resume ascending structure price is required to clear the barrier at 1.3543 (R1). Next on tap locates our intraday targets at 1.3567 (R2) and 1.3593 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next support measure lies at 1.3499 (S1). Decline below it would enable lower targets at 1.3474 (S2) and 1.3448 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3543, 1.3567, 1.3593
    Support Levels: 1.3499, 1.3474, 1.3448

    -------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.61478 LOW 1.61146 BID 1.61302 ASK 1.61307 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 40:16



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.6168 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6215 (R2) and 1.6264 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.6089 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest initial targets at 1.6040 (S2) and then 1.5989 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6168, 1.6215, 1.6264
    Support Levels: 1.6089, 1.6040, 1.5989

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.475 LOW 97.897 BID 98.280 ASK 98.282 CHANGE 0.37% TIME 08 : 40:16



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY is approaching our next resistance level at 98.51 (R1), keeping the short-term ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 98.86 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 99.21 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 97.76 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 97.46 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 97.14 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.51, 98.86, 99.21
    Support Levels: 97.76, 97.46, 97.14


    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  4. #84

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 20 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 20 2013

    Asset purchase schemes remaining static.

    As the tide went out on the shock decision by the FOMC regarding their asset purchase schemes remaining static, the markets in the USA appeared to pause for thought in Thursday's trading sessions. Looking at high impact news events the improved unemployment data was discounted given the fact that two states, including California, failed to proved jobs data as their computer systems were still off grid. Better news came in the form of house sales reaching a recent high, whilst the Philly Fed number came in off the scale in terms of positivity. The improved housing market news was added to by costs for U.S. home buyers predicted to fall from the highest level in two years after the Federal Reserve increased expectations that it will keep short-term interest rates at about zero percent. Rates on 30-year mortgages reached 4.93 percent in the week ended Sept 6th, the highest level seen since April 2011 and up from a record low of 3.57 percent in December, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. The rate declined to 4.86 percent last week. Treasuries dropped the day after experiencing the biggest rally in two years as improved economic conditions made investors more certain that the Federal Reserve’s next move will be to reduce monetary stimulus. The 10-year yield rose six basis points or 0.06 percentage point to 2.75 percent late in the New York session. The price of the 2.5 percent note maturing in August 2023 dropped 17/32, or, $5.31 per $1,000 face value, to 97 26/32. The yield slid 16 basis points on Wednesday, the biggest decline since Oct 31st 2011.
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-20 08:30 GMT | UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Aug)
    2013-09-20 12:30 GMT | CA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
    2013-09-20 14:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Confidence (Sep)
    2013-09-20 16:30 GMT | US Fed's George Speech

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-20 05:18 GMT | RBA likely to ease again; AUD to trade heavy - NAB
    2013-09-20 05:15 GMT | GBP/USD bouncing modestly at 1.6042 after downside correction day Thursday
    2013-09-20 05:11 GMT | GBP/JPY finds strong supply at 160 round
    2013-09-20 04:38 GMT | EUR/GBP stalling below 0.8450 ahead of Germany elections

    ---------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.35393 LOW 1.35279 BID 1.35354 ASK 1.35357 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 47:18



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies at 1.3569 (R1). If the break occurs here we would suggest next attractive point at 1.3598 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3628 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the local low at 1.3507 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3474 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3440 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3569, 1.3598, 1.3628
    Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3474, 1.3440

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.60462 LOW 1.60238 BID 1.60450 ASK 1.60454 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 47:19



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.6082 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way towards to next interim target at 1.6126 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.6170 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the downside, next support level locates at 1.6021 (S1). Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 1.5978 (S2) and then any further market decline would be limited to last mark at 1.5933 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6082, 1.6126, 1.6170
    Support Levels: 1.6021, 1.5578, 1.5933


    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.562 LOW 99.174 BID 99.253 ASK 99.257 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 47:20



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Possible uptrend development is limited now to the next resistive measure at 99.63 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 99.85 (R2) en route to final aim at 100.06 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 99.10 (S1) might maintain a negative tone in near term perspective. In such case we would suggest next supportive measures at 98.87 (S2) and 98.64 (S3) as possible retracement targets.

    Resistance Levels: 99.63, 99.85, 100.06
    Support Levels: 99.10, 98.87, 98.64

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  5. #85

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 23 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 23 2013

    Merkel wins German election, arduous coalition talks ahead...

    Asian traders bought up the Euro through interbank trading, following early evidence of what later was confirmed as the best result for Merkel's conservative party in a general election since 1990, with the Chancellor receiving around 42% of all votes to keep her post as one of the most powerful women on the globe for a third term. Despite the early enthusiasm, the excitement faded pretty quick, with traders deciding to be sidelined as Merkel still faces a tough road ahead, now having to engage on coalition negotiation to form a government - a process which may take weeks if not months - after Mekel's CDU fell very short from claiming an absolute majority.

    As the quiet Asian session advanced, and with the Tokyo market closed due to public holidays, the only relevant headline to outline was the Chinese HSBC PMI, which came at a 6-month high, supporting the Australian Dollar across the board. On the commodity arena, metals were hammered yet again, following Fed's Bullard comments on Friday, which triggered the 'taper trade' again, after saying that the October FOMC meeting was still 'live' in terms of tapering.-FXstreet.com
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-23 07:28 GMT | DE Markit Services PMI (Sep)
    2013-09-23 07:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
    2013-09-23 12:58 GMT | US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
    2013-09-23 13:00 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-23 05:18 GMT | EUR/USD still indecisive just above flat line; 1.3534 is the level to conquer for the bulls
    2013-09-23 05:02 GMT | GBP/JPY upwards amidst of a Tokyo-holiday session
    2013-09-23 04:33 GMT | USD/CHF finishes “abc” upside correction at 0.9122; headed lower
    2013-09-23 03:56 GMT | USD/JPY bracing for takeoff?

    ----------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.35459 LOW 1.35202 BID 1.35293 ASK 1.35297 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 40:09



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Technically, next resistive structure lies at 1.3549 (R1). Break here is required to initiate upwards action towards to next target at 1.3583 (R2) and then final aim could be exposed at 1.3618 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, current range pattern on the hourly chart suggest possible retest of our supportive measure at 1.3507 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 1.3474 (S2) and 1.3440 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3549, 1.3583, 1.3618
    Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3474, 1.3440

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.60314 LOW 1.59929 BID 1.60220 ASK 1.60224 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 40:10



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.6044 (R1) prevents possible gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.6075 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.6106 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low offers a key support level on the downside. A dip below the 1.5987 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5956 (S2) and potentially 1.5925 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6044, 1.6075, 1.6106
    Support Levels: 1.5987, 1.5956, 1.5925

    ------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.359 LOW 99.084 BID 99.117 ASK 99.119 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 40:11



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited now to resistive measure at 99.36 (R1). Break here is required to enable uptrend formation towards to higher target at 99.55 (R2). Final aim for today locates at 99.74 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important resistive measure at 99.04 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 98.86 (S2) and 98.69 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.55, 99.74
    Support Levels: 99.04, 98.86, 98.69

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  6. #86

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 24 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 24 2013

    A tale of three central banks

    Two European central bank presidents spoke on Monday concerning their overall relative responsibilities. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he’s prepared to release another long-term refinancing operation in order to provide funds to Europe’s banking system if and when needed. Unlike previous times after Mr Draghi has held court, the market reaction this time was muted. The Swiss franc is still highly valued and the central bank’s currency ceiling remains essential for safeguarding the economy, according to Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan in his statement on Monday. Therefore the loose peg, in relation to the value of the Swiss franc versus the euro, at circa 120, will remain in force until conditions change. The U.S. currency fell versus the majority of its sixteen major peers as a consequence of the Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart and others stating that Fed policy should focus on creating a more dynamic economy. Lockhart has continually backed the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchases that were retained last week.
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog


    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-24 08:00 GMT | DE IFO - Business Climate (Sep)
    2013-09-24 12:30 GMT | CA Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
    2013-09-24 14:00 GMT | US Consumer Confidence (Sep)
    2013-09-24 22:45 GMT | NZ Trade Balance (YoY) (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-24 05:16 GMT | EUR/USD churning above support of 1.3476 ahead of German data
    2013-09-24 05:01 GMT | EUR/GBP struggles to maintain the 0.8400 support
    2013-09-24 04:42 GMT | GBP/USD off slightly Tuesday after brief rally Monday; key support 1.5894
    2013-09-24 03:59 GMT | USD/JPY pulling back away from 99.52 resistance as Yen sees safety inflows


    --------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.34985 LOW 1.3489 BID 1.34953 ASK 1.34955 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 47:25



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3517 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3538 (R2) and 1.3560 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.3478 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of further market easing towards to next targets at 1.3458 (S2) and 1.3437 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 1.3517, 1.3538, 1.3560
    Support Levels: 1.3478, 1.3458, 1.3437

    ---------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.60443 LOW 1.60252 BID 1.60256 ASK 1.60261 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 47:26



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Market price penetrated below the moving averages and likely close at the negative side today. Our next resistive measure lies at 1.6054 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.6083 (R2) and 1.6109 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible market weakening is protected by important technical level at 1.6016 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 1.5989 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.5962 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6054, 1.6083, 1.6109
    Support Levels: 1.6016, 1.5989, 1.5962

    -------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.93 LOW 98.662 BID 98.921 ASK 98.923 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 47:27



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: We expect possible upwards penetration. Break above the resistance at 98.93 (R1) would clear the way towards to higher target at 99.10 (R2). Further price appreciation would face then final resistive measure at 99.27 (R3) Downwards scenario: Our next support level locates at 98.63 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this level would open way towards to next target at 98.47 (S2) and then final aim lie at 98.31 (S3) price level.

    Resistance Levels: 98.93, 99.10, 99.27
    Support Levels: 98.63, 98.47, 98.31

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  7. #87

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 25 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 25 2013

    Aussie, kiwi heavy; Tokyo stained with red

    Asian traders were rather inactive at the early going of Tokyo, with some Yen strength the main theme, yet as the session advanced, Aussie weakness also became dominant. In the US, following an uncertain and uneven Wall Street session after Fed’s comments on indefinite timing for bond-buying program, Asia registered mixed results in equity indexes with the Nikkei down 0.39%, pushing the yen higher. In New Zealand, the trade deficit expanded from $-771M to $-1191M beating estimates, for the worse, at $-743M. In Australia, the RBA said the banking system is liquid and in good shape and added the housing market data is strong and yet the Aussie remained heavy with slow progress upward.

    Japan prepared for the tankan results next week and market participants remain on their feet to any governmental decision to increase the sales taxes as Prime Minister Abe announce a potential increase based on tankan results despite the Spring 2014 plans to proceed with the monetary policies. In the futures contracts realm, all metals printed gains with notably copper advancing on positive Chinese consumer data along with gold registering gains worth 0.66% for the first time in the week to reach $1,325.00.
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-25 06:00 GMT | DE Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Oct)
    2013-09-25 10:00 GMT | UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) (Sep)
    2013-09-25 12:30 GMT | US Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
    2013-09-25 14:00 GMT | US New Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-25 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD threatening Tuesday low of 1.3463 ahead of Europe open
    2013-09-25 04:47 GMT | USD/JPY has downside risks in coming months - JPMorgan
    2013-09-25 04:24 GMT | AUD/USD is falling as “debt-ceiling” issue looms out
    2013-09-25 03:36 GMT | Gold rallies off Tuesday low at 1305.50, but runs into wall at 1326.80

    -------------------
    EURUSD
    HIGH 1.34809 LOW 1.34619 BID 1.34719 ASK 1.34722 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 47:09



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Next resistive barrier locates at 1.3497 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of further market strengthening. In such case, resistances at 1.3520 (R2) and 1.3542 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Further correction development might face next hurdle at 1.3458 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 1.3437 (S2), en route to final aim at 1.3415 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3497, 1.3520, 1.3542
    Support Levels: 1.3458, 1.3437, 1.3415

    -------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.60039 LOW 1.59794 BID 1.59904 ASK 1.59911 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 47:09



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 1.6021 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.6060 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.6097 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the key support level at 1.5954 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5912 (S2) and 1.5870 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6021, 1.6060, 1.6097
    Support Levels: 1.5954, 1.5912, 1.5870

    -----------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.798 LOW 98.557 BID 98.680 ASK 98.682 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 47:10



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains favored on the hourly chart frame, however possible extension above the resistive measure at 98.92 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 99.07 (R2) and 99.21 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, new phase of downtrend formation might commence below the important support level at 98.56 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 98.41 (S2) and 98.26 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 98.92, 99.07, 99.21
    Support Levels: 98.56, 98.41, 98.26

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  8. #88

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 26 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 26 2013

    SPX drop longest since 'fiscal cliff' debacle of December 2012

    The SPX has dropped over 1.9 percent during the past five trading days as investors remain cautious as to whether or not the pending government shutdown will eventually harm USA economic growth. The current fall is now the longest witnessed on the index since Dec 28th 2012, when USA lawmakers clashed over the impending automatic spending cuts and tax increases known as the "fiscal cliff". Sterling advanced 0.4 percent to $1.6070 late in the London session after rising to $1.6163 on Sept 18th, which was the highest level seen since Jan 11th. The U.K. currency was little changed at 84.22 pence per euro after appreciating to 83.53 pence on Sept 18th, the strongest level seen since Jan 17th. Sterling strengthened towards its eight-month high versus the dollar after a gauge of U.K. retail sales from the UK's CBI increased in September, adding to signs the U.K. economy is improving, slowly. Sterling rose versus all of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that analysts believe will confirm that the U.K. economy expanded last quarter by the estimated 0.7%. The pound has in fact been the best performer during the past six months, appreciating 5.8 percent versus the dollar.
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-26 08:30 GMT | UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
    2013-09-26 12:30 GMT | US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)
    2013-09-26 14:00 GM | US Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Aug)
    2013-09-26 23:30 GMT | JP National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-26 05:37 GMT | USD/JPY surges as Nikkei cracks the 14,500
    2013-09-26 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD gathering steam for another upside move ahead of European
    2013-09-26 04:28 GMT | GBP/USD consolidating big gains from Wednesday; first support 1.6046
    2013-09-26 03:17 GMT | GBP/JPY propelled to 159.27 highs

    -------------------
    EURUSD
    HIGH 1.35306 LOW 1.35116 BID 1.35209 ASK 1.35213 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 47:50



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measures could be found at 1.3538 (R1). Clearance here would suggest further uptrend development towards to our interim target at 1.3562 (R2). Final aim locates today at 1.3584 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, depreciation below the support barrier at 1.3507 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3483 (S2) and then 1.3459 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3538, 1.3562, 1.3584
    Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3483, 1.3459

    ----------------
    GBPUSD
    HIGH 1.60865 LOW 1.60671 BID 1.60771 ASK 1.60775 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 47:51



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: On the upside, fractals level at 1.6090 (R1) offers an important resistive structure. Any penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6114 (R2) and 1.6137 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 1.6055 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 1.6031 (S2) and 1.6006 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6090, 1.6114, 1.6137
    Support Levels: 1.6055, 1.6031, 1.6006

    -----------------
    USDJPY
    HIGH 99.11 LOW 98.269 BID 98.893 ASK 98.896 CHANGE 0.47% TIME 08 : 47:52



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable above the moving averages. Clearance of next resistance level at 99.11 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 99.26 (R2) and 99.42 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Clearance of our support at 98.68 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 98.51 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final aim at 98.34 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 99.11, 99.26, 99.42
    Support Levels: 98.68, 98.51, 98.34

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  9. #89

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 27 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 27 2013

    USA Congress still at odds over debt ceiling

    Despite the hope that the USA will eventually agree a new debt ceiling, U.S. Congress has failed to pass the necessary budget, Republicans and Democrats continue to disagree over whether to stop funding the 2010 health-care initiative known as Obamacare, thereby threatening a a government shutdown by Oct 1st. Equities rose in Thursday's trading sessions, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rising by 0.4 percent to 1,698.67 at the close in the New York session. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note also climbed two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.65 percent. Other data sets published on Thursday may have confirmed that the USA economy improved in the second quarter of 2013, however, positive GDP numbers were countered by fewer Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes in August. USA GDP rose at a 2.48% percent annual rate, unrevised from the previous estimate, after expanding 1.1 percent in the first quarter, the USA Commerce Department reported. The index of pending home sales fell 1.6 percent, the recent rise in mortgage rates slowing momentum in the housing market, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-27 12:00 GMT | DE.Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Sep)Preliminar
    2013-09-27 12:00 GMT | DE.Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Sep)Preliminar
    2013-09-27 12:30 GMT | US.Personal Spending (Aug)
    2013-09-27 12:30 GMT | US.Personal Income (MoM) (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-27 05:01 GMT | EUR/CHF at six-week low
    2013-09-27 04:02 GMT | EUR/USD under pressure on Italian political uncertainty
    2013-09-27 02:53 GMT | AUD/JPY dives to 92.13 bottoms
    2013-09-27 02:37 GMT | EUR/JPY cracks down to 133.02 lows


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3491 LOW 1.34742 BID 1.34868 ASK 1.34871 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 11:57



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Resistance level at 1.3504 (R1) acts as reference point for further market strengthening. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 1.3523 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 1.3542 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.3472 (S1). Breakthrough of this mark would open way for a downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.3452 (S2) and 1.3435 (R3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.3504, 1.3523, 1.3542
    Support Levels: 1.3472, 1.3452, 1.3435


    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.60532 LOW 1.603 BID 1.60506 ASK 1.60511 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 11:57



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Our attention on the upside is put to the next resistive barrier at 1.6139 (R1). Break here is required to stimulate bullish forces to expose initial targets at 1.6170 (R2) and 1.6206 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below the support level at 1.6030 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.6000 (S2) and 1.5964 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6139. 1.6170, 1.6206
    Support Levels: 1.6030, 1.6000, 1.5964

    -----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.04 LOW 98.624 BID 98.634 ASK 98.636 CHANGE -0.34% TIME 08 : 11:58



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 99.05 (R1). Break here would open road towards to our interim aim at 99.33 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive measure at 99.58 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next support level aligns at 98.56 (S1) and possible price regress below it might encounter downside rally. In such scenario we would suggest next intraday targets to be placed at 98.25 (S2) and 97.97 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 99.05, 99.33, 99.58
    Support Levels: 98.56, 98.25, 97.97

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

  10. #90

    Default Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 30 2013

    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 30 2013

    Equity index futures fall sharply, USA Government shutdown approaches as lawmakers fail to broker agreement

    Concerns that the budget stalemate, at the heart of the USA government, will affect economic growth caused the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to experience its first weekly drop since August. The index dropped 1.1 percent last week. The rate on 10-year Treasury notes fell three basis points to 2.62 percent. Equity index futures took a substantial hit immediately the market opened Sunday evening; the DJIA down 0.72% - with the critical level of 15,000 back on the radar. The SPX was down 0.79%. European equity index futures also took an immediate hit, with UK FTSE down 0.77% and the MIB down 1.25%. The dollar and the euro fell sharply in early trade on Sunday evening, the greenback falling by 0.5% versus yen. Being perceived as a safe haven yen also rose versus the euro, loonie, Aussie, sterling and the Swiss franc amongst the major peers. In a USA government shutdown, essential operations with dedicated funding would continue. A shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points according to economists. The biggest effect would come from the output lost from temporarily laid off workers.
    Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-30 09:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Sep)
    2013-09-30 12:30 GMT | CA Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jul)
    2013-09-30 13:45 GMT | US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Sep)
    2013-09-30 23:30 GMT | JP Unemployment Rate (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-30 05:30 GMT | AUD/USD off the session lows; 0.9282 is last hope for bulls
    2013-09-30 04:48 GMT | USD/CHF under pressure on US government close “jitters”
    2013-09-30 03:52 GMT | USD/JPY starting to weaken after bouncing around after Japanese data
    2013-09-30 03:06 GMT | NZD/USD down, but holding its own unlike many other “risk currencies”

    ------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.35067 LOW 1.34774 BID 1.34980 ASK 1.34983 CHANGE -0.18% TIME 08 : 38:12



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Price comfortably ranging on the hourly chart, however we see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 1.3512 (R1) later on today. Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3530 (R2) and 1.3550 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.3471 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.3454 (S2) and 1.3437 (S3)

    Resistance Levels: 1.3512, 1.3530, 1.3550
    Support Levels: 1.3471, 1.3454, 1.3437

    ------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.61812 LOW 1.61387 BID 1.61646 ASK 1.61654 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 38:12



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 1.6180 (R1). Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6210 (R2) and If the pair keeps its momentum we would expect an exposure of 1.6238 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.6139 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 1.6111 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.6083 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6180, 1.6210, 1.6238
    Support Levels: 1.6139, 1.6111, 1.6083

    ------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.054 LOW 97.674 BID 97.910 ASK 97.913 CHANGE -0.32% TIME 08 : 38:13



    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 98.09 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 98.29 (R2) and then final aim could be found at 98.50 (R3). Downwards scenario: Successful retest of our next support level at 97.66 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 97.46 (S2) and then final aim for today could be exposed at 97.26 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.09, 98.29, 98.50
    Support Levels: 97.66, 97.46, 97.26

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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