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Thread: 31 most important Economic Indicators

  1. #21
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    Beige Book


    Made public in 1983, the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, or Beige Book, as it is known, has a different style and tone than many other indicators. Rather than being filled with raw data, the Beige Book takes a more conversational approach. The book has 13 sections in total; 12 regional reports from each of the member Fed district banks, preceded by one national summary drawn from the individual reports that follow it. This is the first chance investors have to see how the Fed draws logical and intuitive conclusions from the raw data presented in other indicator releases.

    The Beige Book is published eight times per year, just before each of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. While it is used by committee members during the meeting itself, it does not carry more clout than other data values and indicators. There is a lot of real-time data that the Fed has at its disposal and, unfortunately, notes from the FOMC meetings themselves are currently not public information.

    The Beige Book aims to give to give a broad overview of the economy, bringing many variables and indicators into the mix. Discussion will be about things such as labor markets, wage and price pressures, retail and ecommerce activity and manufacturing output. Investors can see comments that are forward-looking; the Beige Book will contain comments that look to predict trends and anticipate changes over the next few months or quarters.
    What it Means for Investors
    The Beige Book by itself is not likely to have a big effect on the markets in the short term, mainly because no new data series is presented here.

    Investors and Fed watchers look to the Beige Book to gain insight into the next FOMC meeting. Is there language that shows fear about inflation? Do the reports suggest that the economy needs a financial boost to continue growing? This is the critical information that will be analyzed in the Beige Book.

    To read the Beige Book effectively, one must become accustomed to "Fed speak", a special verbiage of measured remarks intentionally designed to say a little without ever saying a lot. The last thing the Fed wants to do with its words is corner itself into a pre-supposed policy decision prior to the next FOMC meeting. Investors won't ever see a definitive statement about the Fed going one way or the other with monetary policy, but there may be valuable clues in the Beige Book - at least for the trained eye. (For related reading, see Formulating Monetary Policy.)

    The Fed directors and their staffs will use their very long proverbial arms to obtain an economic pulse that can't be found in any other indicator's report. They will interview business leaders, bank presidents, members of other Fed boards and hundreds of other informal networks before writing the reports that will be compiled in the Beige Book.

    Investors who hold investments that conduct business in specific regions of the country may find valuable information about how those areas are performing as a whole. For instance, a stockholder in a regional bank operating in the Southeastern U.S. would want to know what the Atlanta Fed Bank says about the health of that region.

    Occasionally, the Beige Book will give evidence that may contradict what a previous indicator has presented; the Employment Report may suggest that there is slack in the labor market, while Beige Book reports may give anecdotal evidence that wage pressures are forming, or that certain specific labor markets are tight. (For more on this topic, read Surveying The Employment Report.)




    On rare occasions, the Beige Book will be released at a time when information is badly needed in the markets; shock events like the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks or a stock market crash can effectively wipe the data slate clean, and investors will count on the Fed to help describe the relative state of affairs during these tumultuous times.

    Strengths:

    Contains forward-looking comments - the Fed districts aim to draw relative conclusions in the Beige Book, not just regurgitate facts already presented
    Gives investors a "man on the street" perspective of economic health by taking first-hand accounts from business owners, economist, and the like
    Aims to put pieces from different reports together into an explanatory whole, giving qualitative measurements instead of quantitative figures
    It's the only indicator that gives reports by geographic region, rather than just by industry group or sector.
    Most regions will report on the state of the service industries, an area not well covered in other indicator reports, although it is a large component of real gross domestic product.

    Weaknesses:
    Rarely is any new statistical data presented, only anecdotal reports
    Filled with measured "Fed-speak"
    Specific industry conclusions are hard to draw from the report.
    Each Fed district can use its discretion on what to include in its report; one region may discuss manufacturing activity while others don't report on the topic.
    Private forecasts compiled by economists and analysts tend to closely match what is reported in the Beige Book, so estimates rarely change following the release.

    The Closing Line
    The Beige Book is not likely to send shock waves through the market on its release, but it provides an original point of view about economic activity and is a marked departure from the dry raw data releases of the other indicators. It also gives investors insight into how the Fed approaches its monetary policy decisions and responsibilities.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/

    Release Time: 2:00pm Eastern Standard Time

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    Import prices

    31 most important Economic Indicators-images-jpg

    This indicator shows the change in the cost of import prices for the reporting period (usually a month), as well as import prices contributed to the overall retail prices of goods and services. Usually,no significant impact on the market. The growth of the indicator leads to the growth of the dollar. Published in conjunction with Export Prices.
    Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis Department of Commerce.
    Release Time: 8:30 ET in the 20 months, the number (data for the previous two months).
    Web: http://www.census.gov /foreign-trade/www/press.html

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    Business Inventories

    Economic Indicator (Business Inventories), showing the presence of manufactured goods, components and semi-finished products wholesale and retail. The report declared the sale, andand inventory statistics of the production process in the wholesale and retail trade.

    Importance :. Low
    Source : Census Bureau, Department of Commerce
    Release Time : 08:30 ET in the middle of the month

    Volatility : moderate.

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    FOMC Policy Announcements

    Publication of the decision of the Operations Committee on the open market on monetary policy (FOMC Policy Announcements)
    Published when data onopen market on monetary policy

    Out Time : Approximately 2:15 PM at the meeting dates meeting the FOMC
    the Web : http://www.federalreserve.gov/

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    Factory Orders

    31 most important Economic Indicators-images-1-jpg

    The Orders the Factory . - The index of industrial orders
    for industrial orders report consists of two reports:
    - Report of orders on durable goods (not less than 3 years), and
    -. A report on orders for short-term bookings (food, clothing, gasoline, tobacco products), as well as products required for maintenance of durable goods
    production inventory is also included in the report and used for inventory forecasting quarterly GDP report.

    Thus, the index shows the total volume of orders for durable goods and goods short-term use.
    Industrial orders index is important in the currency market Forex, because it reflects the production rates in the coming months.

    Importance :. Low
    Source : Census Bureau, Department of Commerce.
    Out : 10:00 ET on the first working day of the month. Data for the previous two months.
    Volatility :. High
    Web: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indica...w/m3/index.htm

    Market reaction:


    The index of industrial orders (Factory Orders) up/// The bond market down/// The stock market unchanged/// Dollar unchanged
    The index of industrial orders (Factory Orders) down/// The bond market up/// The stock market unchanged/// Dollar unchanged

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    Employment Report

    31 most important Economic Indicators-feb-jobs-report-jpg

    The monthly report on employment (Employment Report) is an important indicator of economic activity and the general state of the economy. It contains a wealth of information about virtuallyAll sectors of the economy.
    employment report consists of two separate subreports that are works of individual surveys and studies
    First, an overview of the household - the study covers some 60 000 households and 120 000 people. It characterizes the level of unemployment. It is believed that a person is considered unemployed, if he does not work and is actively engaged in its search.
    The second review of the institutions - the report covers 375 000 enterprises operating in the non-agricultural sector, and the level of wages in the sector, the average workweek and the mean . hourly wage
    Payroll divided into sectors such as the industrial sector, mining sector, construction, the service sector and the state. service.
    The average length of the working week is one of the important determinants of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. The average workweek also reflects labor market conditions. And the increase in the working week talking about the beginning of the rise of wages.
    The average salary is needed to determine the potential for inflation. Generally speaking, the employment report helps predict many other indicators and indices.

    Importance : High.
    Posted : US Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor.
    Frequency :. Monthly
    issue of Time : First Friday of every month at 8:30 am ET
    Web : http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc. htm

    Market reaction:

    The number of new jobs (Payroll Employment) up/// The bond market down/// The stock market is up/// Dollar up
    The unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) Top/// The bond market up/// The stock market is down/// Dollar down
    The number of new jobs (Payroll Employment) down/// The bond market up/// The stock market is down/// Dollar down
    The unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) Down/// The bond market down/// The stock market is up/// Dollar up

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    Consumer Credit

    31 most important Economic Indicators-transunion-jpg

    The report on consumer credit ( the Consumer at Credit) characterizes the debt on personal loans, credit cards and hire purchase. Light is often reviewed and have seasonal fluctuations. For example, the value of consumer credit is growing in anticipation of Christmas and New Year. It does not have a significant impact on the market, although the increase has a positive effect on the course of the national currency and the economy.

    Source: Federal Reserve.
    Release Time: 15:00 the ET 5th of the month.
    Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/
    Last edited by glosbe; 10-08-2016 at 18:00.

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    Construction Spending

    31 most important Economic Indicators-z-construction-spending-png

    Construction Spending (Construction Spending) subdivided for the construction of residential and non-residential buildings, as well as government spending on new construction. Construction spending upup to 20% of GDP and the figures fluctuate and therefore its impact on the market significantly. Traders consider only the basic monthly trends.
    Construction costs are sensitive to interest rates, as under construction come from bank loans and credits.
    Thus, for positive values of the indicator rate is also rising. It is worth adding that the volume of construction growth has a positive effect on economic development.
    Source : Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce.
    Issue : 10:00 ET the first working day of the month. Data for the previous two months.
    Volatility :. High
    Web : http://www.census.gov/prod/1/constr/c30/c30.html

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    Productivity and Costs \ Desktop productivity and cost of goods manufactured

    The output of the report is associated with a serious movement in the market, due to the fact that GDP is a good reflector of productivity growth.
    However, traders are carefully watching him, because at times it can be misleading.
    For example, reducing the number of people employed in manufacturing during the stagnation in the economy leads to increased productivity. It can also occur as a result of strikes.
    The increase in the index value is beneficial to the national economy development and conducts to increase in the dollar.
    Importance :. Low
    Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics. Department of Labor
    Release : 8:30 ET is published quarterly. 7 th day of the second month in the quarter. The data for the previous quarter.
    Web : http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm

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    Auto and Truck Sales \ Sales of cars and trucks

    31 most important Economic Indicators-7-3-3-png

    Sales of cars and trucks (Auto and Truck Sales) estimates the monthly sales of vehicles. It is believed that this is an important indicator of consumer demand, which accounts forapproximately 25% of total retail sales. Demand for durable goods such as the use of cars, the interest rate is subject to sensitive correlation, which makes auto sector is a leading indicator of the business cycle.

    Each automaker provides reports individually. The reports are usually published in the first three working days of each month. After the Department of Commerce will take into account the seasonal factor, we can talk about a general debriefing.
    More information is available at Briefing.com

    Importance :. Average
    Source : Individual auto manufacturers, the Ministry of Commerce.
    Volatility :. Reasonable
    Release : Release date varies, but is usually the first three working days of the month. The data for the previous month.

    Market reaction:

    Auto Sales Up/// The bond market down/// The stock market is up/// Dollar up
    Auto Sales Down/// The bond market up/// The stock market is down/// Dollar down

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