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Thread: Forex patterns & probabilities

  1. #1
    Administrator funyoo's Avatar
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    Default Forex patterns & probabilities

    Here are some statistics to see if certain patterns have some interest. And if yes, we can then improve the searches (best SL, TP).

  2. #2
    Administrator funyoo's Avatar
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    Next bar (up/down ?) after a "cross" signal (open=close).

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 52/48 - 1185/1096
    H4 - 45/55 - 145/176
    D1 - 70/30 - 16/7

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 50/50 - 1182/1185
    H4 - 50/50 - 168/168
    D1 - 46/54 - 11/13

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 49/51 - 1171/1211
    H4 - 47/53 - 158/178
    D1 - 50/50 - 12/12

  3. #3
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    Next bar after a cross with an upper wick at least twice bigger than the lower wick.

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 54/46 - 258/219
    H4 - 48/52 - 37/40
    D1 - 80/20 - 4/1

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 46/57 - 227/267
    H4 - 50/50 - 39/39
    D1 - 20/80 - 1/4

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 43/57 - 216/282
    H4 - 47/53 - 37/42
    D1 - 40/60 - 2/3

  4. #4
    Administrator funyoo's Avatar
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    The opposite.

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 51/49 - 203/198
    H4 - 45/55 - 30/36
    D1 - 67/33 - 4/2

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 52/48- 213/198
    H4 - 49/51 - 34/36
    D1 - 43/57 - 3/4

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 53/47 - 220/195
    H4 - 37/63 - 25/42
    D1 - 43/57 - 3/4

  5. #5
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    Gap : current bar when open is higher than at least 10 pips over the previous high.

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 48/52 - 30/33
    H4 - 32/68 - 15/32
    D1 - 53/47 - 9/8

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 48/52 - 30/33
    H4 - 62/38 - 29/18
    D1 - 35/65 - 6/11

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 45/55 - 29/36
    H4 - 57/43 - 27/20
    D1 - 35/65 - 6/11

  6. #6
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    Gap : current bar when open is lower than at least 10 pips under the previous low.

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 61/39 - 33/21
    H4 - 55/45 - 28/23
    D1 - 53/47 - 73/27

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 49/50 - 29/30
    H4 - 41/59 - 21/30
    D1 - 60/40 - 9/6

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 47/53 - 28/31
    H4 - 42/58 - 21/29
    D1 - 60/40 - 9/6

  7. #7
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    Next bar after an inside bar (lower high and higher low).

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 51/49 - 3502/3388
    H4 - 49/51 - 1132/1166
    D1 - 53/47 - 151/135

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 50/50 - 3542/3554
    H4 - 47/53 - 1119/1244
    D1 - 42/58 - 121/165

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 51/49 - 3555/3603
    H4 - 46/54 - 1092/1274
    D1 - 43/57 - 123/164

  8. #8
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    Next bar after a double inside bar.

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 49/51 - 263/271
    H4 - 51/49 - 154/150
    D1 - 50/50 - 9/9

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 55/45 - 300/248
    H4 - 44/56 - 135/175
    D1 - 56/44 - 10/8

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 50/50 - 278/280
    H4 - 39/61 - 124/190
    D1- 50/50 - 9/9

  9. #9
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    Next bar after an outside bar (higher high and lower low).

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 51/49 - 2194/2073
    H4 - 53/47 - 877/781
    D1 - 54/46 - 141/122

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 50/50 - 2183/2191
    H4 - 46/54 - 772/897
    D1 - 39/61 - 104/162

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 49/51 - 2160/2247
    H4 - 47/53 - 793/872
    D1 - 39/61 - 105/161

  10. #10
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    Next bar after a double outside bar.

    With EURUSD on the last 8 years.

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN bars

    H1 - 55/45 - 113/92
    H4 - 54/46 - 65/56
    D1 - 78/22 - 7/2

    On the 5 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 47/53 - 100/111
    H4 - 44/56 - 54/69
    D1 - 22/78 - 2/7

    On the 10 bars after the signal :

    Timeframe - %UP/%DOWN - UP/DOWN movements

    H1 - 44/56 - 95/119
    H4 - 52/48 - 64/59
    D1 - 44/56 - 4/5

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