Economic News from InstaForex
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  1. #21

    Default Financial Professionals Say U.S. Economy Still In Recession

    Financial professionals hold the view that the U.S. economy remains in a recession, despite signs of stability in recent months, a survey said Tuesday. The survey was conducted amongst attendees of the 2009 annual conference of the Association for Financial Professionals on October 5.

    Around 20% of respondents assessed that the recession will end before of the year, while 69% expect the recession to continue well into 2010. Nearly 22% expect company payrolls to shrink further, while just 14% anticipate their organization to resume hiring over the next six months.

    Only 21% of financial professionals said their organization will increase capital spending in the months ahead. Majority of survey respondents expect to either maintain or further cut capital spending over the coming six months.

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  2. #22


    UK Sept. Output Prices Rise Unexpectedly.

    Friday, the Office for National Statistics said UK's output prices rose 0.4% in September from the previous year, reversing a fall of 0.3% in August. Consensus forecast was for a 0.1% fall.

    Reflecting price rises in petroleum and other manufactured products, output prices climbed 0.5% month-on-month, larger than the 0.3% increase seen in August and 0.1% expected by economists.

    The input price index for materials and fuels purchased by manufacturing industry fell 6.5% annually in September, following a 7.7% drop in August. On a monthly basis, input prices slipped 0.5% in September. Economists were expecting an annual 6.8% fall and a monthly drop of 0.8%.

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  3. #23


    Euro Eases From 14-month High Against Dollar.

    In European deals on Thursday, the euro eased from a 14-month high against the dollar amid a report that showed Euro-zone's annual CPI fell in September. The euro also plummeted to a 6-day low against the pound and an 8-day low against the franc.

    But the euro strengthened to a fresh 3-week high against the yen due to across the board weakening of the latter.

    The Eurostat said in a final report that Eurozone's consumer price index or CPI dropped 0.3% year-on-year in September, after falling 0.2% in August. The statistical office confirmed its preliminary estimate for inflation.

    The core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, remained at 1.2% in September, slower than the 1.3% growth the previous month.

    On a monthly basis, the CPI remained unchanged in September, while core inflation stood at 0.2%.

    The euro, which closed yesterday's trading at 0.9346 against the pound slipped to a 6-day low of 0.9196 in early deals on Thursday. The next downside target level for the euro-pound pair is seen at 0.908.

    The pound rose on speculation the Bank of England policy makers may pause their asset-purchase program in the near future as the economy shows signs of recovering from the recession.

    In an interview to the Financial Times newspaper, Paul Fisher, Bank of England's executive director for markets said he feels more confident now that the asset purchase programme is having the scale and speed of impact that was hoped for when the programme was started.

    "But we are still only seven months into the programme from when it started with the first purchases, so it is still very early days," he told the newspaper. According to him, the increase in unemployment is still "pretty dreadful". But it is just not as bad as it could have been, given a 6% fall in output. And that may be one of the aspects of the asset purchase scheme working, he said.

    During early trading on Thursday, the euro declined to an 8-day low of 1.5131 against the Swiss franc. This may be compared to Wednesday's close of 1.5150. If the euro-franc pair drops further, it may test support around the 1.509 level.

    The franc advanced as Switzerland's ZEW economic expectations index continued to rise in October. The economic expectations index for Switzerland increased to 65 in October from 58 points in the previous month, results of a survey conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research and Credit Suisse revealed today.

    The euro weakened against the dollar after reaching a 14-month high of 1.4969 at 2:10 am ET Thursday. Presently, the euro-dollar pair is trading at 1.4913, down from yesterday's close of 1.4930. The near term support for the pair is seen at 1.487.

    In early deals on Thursday, the euro surged up to a new 3-week high of 134.32 against the yen. On the upside, 135.5 is seen as the next target level for the European currency. At yesterday's close, the euro-yen pair was quoted at 133.50.

    The Bank of Japan upgraded its economic assessment for the second consecutive month, the latest Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments showed today.

    The BoJ said the Japan economy has started to pick up compared to its last month's view that economic conditions are showing signs of recovery. Looking forward, the central bank said economic conditions are likely to improve gradually. Last month, the BoJ said economic conditions are likely to start improving in the near future.

    In the upcoming North American session, the U.S. consumer price index for September, weekly jobless claims report for the week ended October 10th and the results of the New York Federal Reserve's empire state manufacturing survey for October are scheduled for release.

    The results of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing survey are due out at 10:00 am ET.

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  4. #24

    Default Dollar Edges Lower Versus Euro, Sterling

    The dollar touched a fresh yearly low versus the euro on Tuesday, even after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and finance ministers of the sixteen Eurozone countries expressed "worries" about forex movements and voiced support for a strong U.S. dollar.

    Its been a brutal stretch for the dollar of late, particularly against the euro. Amid expectations that the interest rate gap between the US and other industrialized nations will widen rapidly once the economic recovery takes hold, the dollar has fallen almost 25 cents from its 2009 highs against the euro, set back in March.

    Late Monday night, the dollar dropped to 1.4993, its lowest level in more than fourteen months. The pair was little changed from that mark approaching 8 am ET.

    The dollar barely budged versus most other majors ahead of data on US housing starts and producer prices. The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision may also be in focus.

    While most economists expect the BoC to maintain its current overnight call rate, Australia, another resource-based economy, surprisingly hiked its key interest rate earlier this month.

    Earnings news will also garner attention as participants continue to look for signs that corporations are able to grow revenues.

    The dollar was stuck in the mud versus the loonie ahead of the BoC decision, inching slightly higher to C$1.0320. A surprise from central bankers in Ottawa could drive the dollar to parity with the loonie.

    Against the sterling the dollar extended its 6-week low, touching 1.6446. With the loss, the buck moved further away from last week's 5-month high near 1.5700.

    Choppy trading kept the dollar above the 90 mark versus the yen. Speculation that Japanese officials may intervene to weaken the yen has helped the dollar rebound after testing a 1995 low of 87.08.

    Japan's leading index stood at 83.2 in August, down from the initial estimate of 83.3, the Cabinet Office reported Tuesday. However, the leading index improved for the sixth month in a row. In July, the reading was 82.5.

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  5. #25


    Japan's Vehicle Production Drops Further In September.

    Japan's vehicle production dropped 21.6% in September from a year earlier to 830,140 units, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said Thursday. This represents the 12th consecutive month of decline in production.

    At the same time, motorcycle production slipped 61% on a yearly basis to 45,646 units, reflecting the 25th consecutive month of decline.

    Domestic sales of automobiles stood at 477,818 vehicles, up 0.2% from last year. However, exports dropped 35.7% to 396,163 units. Moreover, factory shipments of motorcycles stood at 40,512 units, down 28.4% from last year. Exports of motorcycles dipped 65.5% to 30,406 units.

    For the first half of the fiscal year 2009, automobile production fell 33.5%, while motorcycle production declined 47.7% during the same period.

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  6. #26

    Default IMF Upgrades Asia's Growth Outlook

    Thursday, the International Monetary Fund raised Asia's economic outlook saying that the region is rapidly rebounding from the depth of the global crisis.

    In its latest regional economic outlook, the Washington-based IMF said it expects Asia's gross domestic product to grow 2.8% this year and by 5.8% next year. In May, the lender had forecast Asia's growth to decelerate to 1.3% in 2009 before rebounding to 4.3% in 2010. The new forecasts are short of the 6.7% average growth recorded over the past decade.

    "The primary driver of Asia's recovery has been a progressive return towards normalcy following the abrupt collapse in global trade and finance at the end of 2008," the IMF report said. According to the report, the other key driver of Asia's recovery has been the region's rapid and forceful policy response.

    "The "green shoots" of recovery appear more firmly rooted in Asia than in other regions," the report said. "Now Asia is leading as the world pulls out of recession."

    While raising its world economic outlook on October 1, the IMF said the world economy is expected to grow 3.1% next year, more than the 2.5% growth forecast in July. The lender expects the Japanese economy to contract 5.4% this year and to grow by 1.7% next year. Australia's growth is forecast to touch 0.7% this year and 2% next year. New Zealand's economy is predicted to shrink 2.2% in 2009 and to expand by 2.2% next year.

    China is likely to log the fastest growth in the region, 8.5% this year and 9% in 2010. India is set to follow, with growth projected at 5.4% in 2009 and at 6.4% next year. Meanwhile, South Korea's economy is predicted to shrink 1% before expanding by 3.6% next year.

    At the same time, the IMF today revised its outlook for Singapore to show a 4.3% expansion in 2010 after a 1.7%contraction this year. In its world economic outlook, the organization had forecast Singapore GDP to rise 4.1% in 2010 after falling 3.3% this year.

    The IMF said Asian policymakers consequently face two major challenges - to maintain policy stimulus until the recovery becomes self-sustaining and to devise a way to return to sustained, rapid growth in a new global environment. It also said Asia will need to be willing to live with smaller current account surpluses and more flexible exchange rate management. Moreover, it said output in the large G7 economies is forecast to grow by 1.3% next year, recouping only half the contraction estimated for 2009, because private demand in these countries remains constrained by the legacy of the crisis.

    Asia's V-shaped recovery may be the sharpest on record and may turn into a square-root-shaped recovery soon, DBS Bank economist David Carbon said in a note on Wednesday. "That is, a sharp drop, a sharp rise, and then a palpable turn sideways." The DBS economist expects growth to be back to "normal" for most of the countries in the region by the first quarter of 2010.

    Carbon also expects key central banks in the region to hike rates in the first quarter. The bank forecasts India to hike rates as early as January and South Korea in the first quarter. China is expected to start pushing rates up in the second quarter as well as allow its currency to appreciate against the U. S. dollar.

    Earlier in the month, Australia became the first G-20 central bank to raise key interest rate after the global financial crisis. India's central bank became the second in the group to start exiting from an easy monetary policy, though it retained key interest rates.

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  7. #27

    Default Dollar Fighting Back Versus Euro As Focus Turns To Fed

    The dollar surged ahead versus the euro Tuesday morning in New York as the Federal Reserve prepared to meet amid growing anxiety that the economic growth seen over the summer may not be sustainable without continued support measures.

    With the US consumer still on edge as unemployment approaches 10 percent, many analysts are pointing out that while the third quarter figures on the economy are somewhat encouraging, organic growth is unlikely until the jobs situation improves.

    The safe haven dollar has managed recover versus the euro over the past week, prompting the rally in global equities to run out of steam.

    The dollar jumped to a monthly high of 1.4623, rising more than a penny even as traders considered news that the European Commission expects the euro area economy to emerge from recession in the second half of 2009.

    However, the economy is set to contract 4% for 2009 as a whole.

    Joaquin Almunia, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs said, "The EU economy is coming out of recession. This owes much to the ambitious measures taken by governments, central banks and the EU that have not only prevented a systemic meltdown but have kick-started the recovery. However, the road ahead is a challenging one."

    The dollar firmed up a bit versus the yen, moving back above the 90 mark. The pair has been choppy over the past few weeks, with the buck finding a measure of support after testing a 1995 low in October.

    Meanwhile, the dollar was steady versus its Australian counterpart even after the RBA raised its interest rate for the second straight session. The dollar rose to .8920 versus the aussie, but leveled off to .8965 approaching 8 am ET.

    In October, Australia became the first G-20 member nation to hike its benchmark interest rate since the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008.

    The dollar hit a weekly high versus the sterling, rising to 1.6260 before hitting resistance. On a longer term basis, the pair has been moving between 1.5700 and 1.6700 for months.

    All eyes will be on Washington, DC tomorrow as the Fed wraps up its latest policy meeting. While Ben Bernanke and company are universally expected to maintain the key interest rate near zero, traders will be paying close attention to the accompanying statement, looking to see whether rates will be left alone "for some time to come," as the central bank has recently assured.

    Looking at today's economic calendar, the government is releasing September factory orders at 10 am ET. Economists are looking for a September gain of 1 percent.

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  8. #28


    European Economics Preview: Eurozone Economy Forecast To Exit Recession.

    Quarterly national account data from Germany, France and the Eurozone are due on Friday, headlining a hectic day for European economic news.

    At 2:00 am ET, Germany's Federal Statistical Office is set to release third quarter GDP data. On a sequential basis, the economy is forecast to expand 0.8% in the third quarter, compared to the 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. The gross domestic product is expected to contract 4.8% on an annual basis, slower than the 5.9% decrease reported in the last quarter.

    In the meantime, the GDP indicator for the month of September is due from Statistics Finland. In August, the GDP indicator had contracted 8.4% on a yearly basis. The statistical office is also slated to release consumer price data for October at the same time. Economists expect consumer prices to fall 0.8% year-on-year, following the 1% decrease in September. Manufacturing new orders data for September is also due at the same time.

    At 2:45 am ET, consumer price figures are due from the French statistical office INSEE. The consumer price index is forecast to fall 0.2% annually in October, slower than the 0.4% decline in the previous month. The monthly inflation rate is seen at 0.1%. EU harmonized consumer prices are expected to fall 0.2% on a yearly basis but to rise 0.1% month-on-month in October.

    Also due at the same time, is wage growth data from France. The wage growth rate is seen at 0.5% sequentially in the third quarter, after the 0.4% increase in the preceding quarter.

    At 2:50 am ET, the French quarterly national accounts report is due. The French economy is tipped to expand 0.6% sequentially in the third quarter, faster than the 0.3% growth in the second quarter. On a yearly basis, the GDP is expected to shrink 1.9% following the 2.8% contraction in the last quarter.

    At 3:00 am ET, third quarter's GDP results are due from the Czech Statistical Office. Economists expect the Czech economy to contract 4.7% annually, slower than the 5.5% decrease in the previous quarter. Retail sales figures for September are also due at the same time from the statistical office. Year-on-year, sales are expected to plunge 6%, faster than the 3.5% drop in the previous month.

    Simultaneously, consumer price inflation figures are due from Spain's National Institute of Statistics. Economists expect the CPI to fall 0.6% year-on-year in October, compared to September's 1% fall. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.7%. Harmonized consumer prices, meanwhile, are forecast to remain unchanged from preliminary estimates at 0.6% annual decline.

    Elsewhere, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office is scheduled to issue GDP data for the third quarter. The Hungarian economy is forecast to contract 6.6% annually, after the 7.5% shrinkage in the previous quarter. Also due at the same time from the statistical office, is final industrial production data for September.

    Shortly later at 3:15 am ET, Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office is slated to release producer and import price data for October. Producer and import prices are tipped to fall 4.1% year-on-year in October, slower than the 4.9% decrease in the preceding month. The monthly producer and import price inflation rate is seen at 0.1%.

    At 3:30 am ET, third quarter GDP results are due from the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics. The Dutch economy is tipped to exit recession by expanding 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter, compared to the 1.1% decrease in the previous month. Year-on-year, the economy is expected to shrink 4.5%. Also due at the same time from the statistical office, are retail sales and trade balance statistics for September.

    Meanwhile, the Statistics Sweden is scheduled to issue the third quarter industry capacity rate. The capacity utilization rate stood at 77% in the second quarter.

    Half an hour later, gross domestic product data is due from the Italian statistical office ISTAT. The Italian economy is tipped to expand 0.8% sequentially in the third quarter, following the 0.5% decrease in the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the GDP is expected to contract 4.5%, slower than the 6% fall in the second quarter. The Statistics Austria is also expected to release third quarter GDP results at the same time.

    At 5:00 am ET, the Eurozone's third quarter GDP figures are due. The Eurozone economy is widely expected to exit recession and is forecast to expand 0.5% sequentially in the third quarter, rebounding from the 0.2% shrinkage in the last quarter. On a yearly basis, the GDP is expected to fall 3.9%, following the 4.8% drop in the second quarter.

    Afterwards at 8:00 am ET, consumer price inflation figures are due from the Polish statistical office. The consumer price inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.2% year-on-year in October from 3.4% in September. Simultaneously, money supply data for October is due from the Polish central bank. Month-on-month, M3 money supply is forecast to grow 1.1%, compared to the 0.9% increase in the previous month.

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  9. #29

    Default Japanese Consumer Prices Fall Further, Unemployment Drops Unexpectedly

    Consumer prices in Japan continued to fall at a rapid pace in October, official data showed on Friday, giving credence to the deflationary concerns of the government. However, a surprise decline in unemployment, along with household spending data put more of a positive, yet momentary, spin on things for the beleaguered economy.

    Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food from the price basket, dropped 2.2% in October from a year earlier, but slower than a 2.3% fall in the previous month, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication reported. Economists had expected a 2.4% decline. General consumer prices dropped 2.5% year-on-year in October, after a 2.2% fall in prices in each of the three preceding months.

    On November 20, the Cabinet Office declared that the economy is in deflation, the first official announcement of deflation since mid-2006. In its monthly economic report for November, the government said, "Recent price developments show that the Japanese economy is in a mild deflationary phase." The report said the economy is picking up, but faces difficult situation such as a high unemployment rate.

    Last week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned against lingering deflation in the economy and said an increase in the central bank's bond purchases would help in battling deflation. According to the Bank of Japan's forecast in October, the CPI excluding fresh food, would fall 1.5% in fiscal 2009 and would drop 0.8% in fiscal 2010 and a 0.4% decline in fiscal 2011.

    On a monthly basis, overall consumer prices dropped 0.4%, and excluding fresh food, prices fell 0.1%.

    BNP Paribas economist Azusa Kato said that the slowing in the rate of decline in the core CPI was simply the result of a 'technical error', namely the waning base effect from surging petroleum product prices through August of last year. Excluding this, price deflation actually broadened in October, he pointed out.

    Meanwhile, the CPI in the Tokyo area dropped 2.2% on year in November and fell 0.2% on a monthly basis. The core CPI fell 1.9% on a yearly basis, but slower than a 2.3% decline anticipated by economists. Month-on-month, core consumer prices were down 0.1%.

    "Despite the economic recovery that has been driven by fiscal stimulus and rising exports to emerging economies, downward pressures on prices have hardly abated and the supply-demand gap remains quite large," Kato said. Even after the disappearance of techinical factors around February, BNP Paribas expects that a minus inflation rate of more than -1% should take root for a while, as deflationary expectations are taking hold at the consumer and corporate level.

    On a more encouraging note for the economy, unemployment levels continued to fall against expectations. The unemployment rate stood at a seasonally adjusted 5.1% in October, down from 5.3% in the previous month, the Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications reported. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 5.4%. The jobless rate declined for the third consecutive month.

    The total number of unemployed persons declined to 3.36 million from 3.52 million. At the same time, the number of employed persons decreased to 62.44 million from 62.64 million in the prior month, while total labor force strength slid to 65.82 million from 66.19 million.

    In other news, real household spending in Japan grew 1.6% year-on-year in October following the 1% increase in the previous month. Economists had expected real household spending to rise 0.7%.

    Household spending excluding that on housing, purchase of vehicles, money gifts and remittance climbed 0.7%. Spending on medical care surged 11.4% annually in October, while spending on transportation & communication rose 4.7%. On the other hand, household spending on education declined 4.6%.

    Spending among workers' households increased 0.6% from the previous year, the same rate of growth as in the preceding month. In nominal terms, total household spending dropped 1.3%.

    Retail sales figures for October were also released on Friday, with sales falling 0.9% year-on-year to JPY 10.83 trillion in October, slower than the 1.3% decline in the preceding month. Economists had expected sales to drop 1.6%. This marks the fourteenth straight month in which retail sales have fallen on an annual basis.

    "The outlook for consumption is not bright," BNP Paribas economist Hiroshi Shiraishi said. "Employee income, the key to consumption, is unlikely to improve anytime soon as businesses continue to cut costs in order to cope with chronically low operating rates." BNP Paribas expects GDP-based consumption, which increased at a solid pace in the second and third quarters to start to lose momentum from the final quarter of the year.

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  10. #30

    Default Yen Soars To New Multi-day Highs Against Majors On Weak Equities

    Wednesday, the yen rose to new multi-day highs against its major counterparts as a fall in global stock prices prompted investors to seek the safety of the Japanese currency.

    World stock markets extended their losses today as Japan's much weaker-than-expected economic growth and rising debt loads around the world added to concerns the global recovery was faltering.

    Investors in Asia were rattled after Japan downwardly revised its economic growth for the third quarter today to reflect a marked worsening of domestic demand in the country.

    The Cabinet Office announced that gross domestic product expanded just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, revised down from the 1.2% growth estimated initially.

    Economists had expected the GDP growth rate to be revised to 0.7%.

    After falling sharply Tuesday, European markets added to their losses, with benchmarks in Germany, France and Britain down 0.1 percent or more.

    Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell 135.75 points, or 1.3 percent, to 10,004.72.

    Hong Kong's key index shed 318.76, or 1.4 percent, to 21,741.76, and Shanghai's benchmark was off 1.7 percent at 3,239.57.

    Australia's market lost 0.7 percent, India's stock measure declined 0.4 percent and Singapore's market was off 0.3 percent.

    The South Korean market defied the downdraft and gained 0.4 percent to 1,634.17, helped after the International Monetary Fund raised the country's economic growth forecast for 2010. Taiwan's market also rose 0.4 percent.

    Against the US dollar, the Japanese yen traded higher during early deals on Wednesday. At 3:35 am ET, the yen climbed to a 6-day high of 87.49 against the dollar, compared to 88.45 hit late New York Tuesday. The next upside target level for the yen is seen around 87.1.

    The Japanese unit that closed Tuesday's North American session at 130.04 against the European currency reached a 12-day high of 128.80 at 3:55 am ET Wednesday. If the yen gains further, 128.0 is seen as the next target level.

    Germany's Federal Statistical Office said today in a final report that the consumer price index or CPI increased 0.4% year-on-year in November, faster than the flat reading in the previous month. The consumer price inflation in November was revised from 0.3% estimated initially. The consumer prices increased for the first time since June 2009.

    French trade deficit widened to EUR 4.39 billion in October from EUR 2.80 billion deficit in September, data released by the Customs Office showed today. Economists had forecast deficit to narrow to EUR 2.3 billion.

    Against the Japanese currency, the British pound edged higher during today's early deals. At 3:40 am ET, the yen rose to an 8-day high of 142.05 against the pound, compared to Tuesday's closing value of 144.07. On the upside, 141.2 is seen as the next target level for the yen.

    Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom held firm in November led by greater optimism about the future economic situation, the results of a survey showed today.

    The Nationwide Building Society announced that the consumer confidence index stood at 73 in November, unchanged from the upwardly revised reading for October. The expectations index rose to 108 from 107 and this was offset by a decline in the present situation index by 2 points to 20. The index measuring spending intentions rose to 106 from 104.

    The yen that closed Tuesday's New York deals at 86.15 against the Swiss franc hit a 12-day high of 85.30 at 3:50 am ET Wednesday. The franc-yen pair is currently trading at 85.63 with 84.7 seen as the next target level.

    Switzerland's unadjusted jobless rate rose to 4.2% in November from 4% recorded in October, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said today. That was in line with economists' expectations. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate stood stable at 4.1%.

    Across the Atlantic, the U.S. wholesale inventories report for October is due in the North American session.

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Economic News from InstaForex