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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #121
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    Default USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 21, 2016

    The USD/CAD pair exhibited extreme volatility during the last trading session which was mainly caused by a slew of Canadian news and events which were consecutively released during the session. First was the release of the CAD’s overnight rate which came out at the expected range of 0.5%. The Canadian monetary policy report also came out and came in short of the previous predictions by 1.1%. This caused the USD/CAD pair to break through the 1.3100 range and also attempted to move towards the 1.3000 region.

    The data for the oil inventory reports was also released, as well as the Bank of Canada’s press conference details which showed a massive decrease in the overall inventory, triggering an increase in oil prices and increasing the value of the CAD.

    Support levels for the USD/CAD pair is currently at 1.3060, 1.3000 and could possibly dip into 1.2930. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be at 1.3120, which was already broken by the currency pair and could possibly go over the 1.3250 region since the pair is currently at the 1.3141 region. The market is not expecting any major economic news releases from US or Canada any time soon, and traders are still speculating that the effects from yesterday’s subsequent releases would still have an influence on the currency pair’s value.
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  2. #122
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    Default USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 24, 2016

    The USD/JPY pair reached a daily session high of 104.20 points before closing down the trading session at the 103.82 trading range, with daily lows for the pair recorded at 103.52 points. The USD/JPY received rejection at the 104.00 region during the Tokyo session and is currently at the 103.86 region.

    The Japanese economic data for this year took on a generally disappointing note, with export data for the nation plummeting by 6.9%. Import data also dropped by 16.3% at the same period, with trade surpluses worth 498.3 billion yen. Chinese exports also decreased by up to 10.6%, causing the Bank of Japan to face renewed pressure with regards to lowering the value of the yen. However, analysts are saying that a Fed-induced drop in the yen might not resolve the issue of dropping Chinese exports since the yuan could decrease further as compared to the yen once the Fed decides to implement its long-awaited rate hike.

    The economic calendar for today is primarily dominated by the Fed, with the possibility of an interest rate hike clocking in only at 70%. This possibility is not expected to increase any time soon due to the impending US national elections which overshadows hawkish sentiment from various policymakers. On the other hand, the yen might become more stable due to dovish statements and bearings.
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  3. #123
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    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 24, 2016

    The EUR/USD pair closed down last week’s trading session at its lowest levels since March after the pair dipped significantly last Thursday due to a statement from the European Central Bank that it will be maintaining its current economic policies. However. ECB’s Mario Draghi will be maintaining its substantial accommodation until such time that inflation rates revert back to the 2% range which will stave off any major policy changes until December. Meanwhile, consumer confidence for the European Union increased by up to -8.2 from October’s -8.


    In the coming sessions, market players are shifting their focus to the reading of the US preliminary Q3 GDP reading, with market players expecting a significant growth in the US economy. For the European Union, the market is currently awaiting the PMI data for the month of October, with data for manufacturing expected to increase significantly and services data regaining some of its stability after declining in September.


    The EUR/USD pair has already reached a critical trading range, especially since the pair has been unable to get out of the 1.0840 -1.1460 region. However, the impending imbalance brought about by the ECB and the Federal Reserve could possibly cause the pair to break through this particular range. But for now, the currency pair is expected to drop further into the 1.0505 range, and further drops in value are expected for the coming trading sessions.
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  4. #124
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    Default USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 25, 2016

    The USD increased in relation to the JPY amid the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, along with a heightened demand for assets with higher yields. For the last trading session, the USD/JPY pair closed down at 104.175 points after increasing by up to 0.35% or 0.365 points.


    The MarketWatch program of the CME Group reported that market traders are expecting a 70% probability that the Fed will be pushing through with its interest rate hike in December. Positive economic data from the previous session caused a reaction from dollar traders with bullish stances while simultaneously reacting to hawkish comments from the FOMC. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard also commented on Monday that the market would only need a one-time interest rate hike to sustain the economy.


    The USD/JPY pair further surged during Monday’s session after a significant increase in the US equity markets caused an increase in demand for high-yield assets. However, this has caused the Japanese yen to decrease in value. The market is not expecting any major economic data from Japan in today’s trading session, and the main determinant of the direction of the currency pair will be the US equity market movement. The USD/JPY is expected to receive more stable support from an increased demand for stocks.
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  5. #125
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    Default USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 27, 2016

    The USD decreased its value in relation to the JPY during Wednesday’s session after yen traders resorted to safety buying as a reaction to the drop in US equity markets. The trading session closed down with the USD reverting back to its previous value against the JPY. The USD/JPY is currently at 104.468, increasing by up to +0.25% or 0.260 points.

    Analysts are stating that the USD dropped further due to concerns regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and uncertainties regarding the impending US presidential elections. However, the rallying of the USD is an indicator that there is an increased possibility for a Fed rate hike in December, and risks are possibly leaning on the downside territory. This will then add more focus to the release of the Durable Goods report on Thursday and Advance GDP data which will be released this coming Friday.

    Thursday’s trading session is expected to have more double-sided trades since traders are monitoring the general direction of the US Treasury yields, as well as high-risk assets demand. Traders should also consider monitoring the stock market, since the JPY is expected to increase if support levels for the US equity markets starts decreasing.
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  6. #126
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    Default USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 27, 2016

    The CAD experienced substantial deprecation during Wednesday’s session in spite of a disappointing US crude inventories data. US oil stocks decreased by up to 600,000 bpm last week, going even lower than the expected increase of up to 700,000 bpm. This decrease in oil prices caused a decreasing trend in the Tokyo session after the data for the API inventory exhibited an increase by up to 4.8 million barrels, but crude prices were able to revert immediately after the US Energy Information Administration released its reports. However, these gains were again revoked after traders expressed concerns regarding the OPEC deal.

    The USD/CAD pair experienced a significant increase by up to 0.213% during the past session, with the pair now trading at 1.3664 points after the CAD decreased in relation to the USD due to a drop in energy prices. For the rest of this week, CAD traders are expecting the release of the US durable goods data this Thursday. However, the main focus for this week is the flash GDP for the US. The overall growth for the US is showing an increased momentum, and this is expected to cause the USD to significantly increase since this will further cement the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, a further lack of activity from the Federal Reserve might prompt the Bank of Canada to intervene on behalf of the central bank’s monetary policy.
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  7. #127
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    Default USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 02, 2016

    The JPY inched higher against the USD during Tuesday’s trading session as a result of safety buying from market players. This flight to safety was caused by a sharp sell-off in the US equity market after equities dropped due to investor reactions to the FBI’s probe of Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, as well as the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve which had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market.


    Profits lagged behind on Tuesday after investors shifted their focus on the upcoming elections, as well as decisions from the Fed, especially since there are concerns from the market that a Trump victory could lead to a Brexit-like situation in the US. The US Final Manufacturing PMI data came out at 53.4 points, going slightly above the expected data of 53.3 points. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 51.9 points. Construction spending data dropped by up to 0.4%, falling short of traders’ expectations of 0.5%.


    The Bank of Japan voted last Tuesday to maintain its current interest rate as well as its target for its 10-year government bond yields at -0.1% and 0%. The BoJ also cautioned market players that inflation risks and growth risks are currently on the negative territory.
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  8. #128
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    Default AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 4, 2016

    The AUD/JPY was able to remain in the positive side of the chart as the USD incurred more losses against the JPY and increased pressure on the cross currency pair. The AUD/JPY pair hit session highs at 79.42 points but eventually reverted back to its previous range of 79.10 points.


    While the AUD/JPY lost some of its previous gains, the AUD/USD pair increased further and was able to reach its highest range in November after the Australian retail sales data showed a 0.6% increase as compared to September’s data of 0.4%. However, the increase in this currency pair was not enough to outweigh the decrease in the value of USD/JPY.


    If the AUD/JPY manages to go over 79.42 could possible lead to a strong resistance level at the 80.00 trading range. If the pair closes the trading session over the zero figure then this could induce more bulls and could possibly cause the pair to go further at 81.52 points. The pair’s support levels is expected to be at 79.00 and could cause a sell-off at the 78.48 and 78.00

  9. #129
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    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

    The EUR/USD is expected to incur significant gains due to risks that Donald Trump could possibly win the upcoming presidential elections, something that the international market did not anticipate. However, some market players are also saying that the USD would be able to regain some of its strength over a few days and a relief rally would occur should Clinton come out as the winning candidate in the elections. Prior to the opening of the Monday session, Clinton was already cleared by the FBI with regards to her e-mails and this is expected to be good for her campaign and has already caused some currency pairs to open up certain gaps.


    The EUR/USD pair has already dropped by up to 70 pips and this is just a sneak peek of what could possibly happen if ever Clinton wins the presidential elections, especially since the market is now anticipating a Clinton victory with Trump’s chances becoming invariably slim.


    Market players are expecting that this particular gap in the currency pair will be temporarily covered, while the USD is set to regain some of its lost value during the next trading sessions, especially with the impending presidential elections.
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  10. #130
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    Default USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

    The USD is expected to increase significantly against the yen during Monday’s trading session as a result of investor reaction to reports that the FBI will be dropping its investigation of US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails and will not be filing any charges against the Democratic candidate.


    This then means that the Monday session is most likely to be a risky day as investors are expected to go on an aggressive USD and stock-buying spree especially after last week’s sell-offs. Investors are also expected to sell their safe haven assets which were bought as hedge against the probability of a Trump victory, which includes the JPY, EUR, and gold stocks. The USD/JPY dropped to its support region located at the 102.799-102.155 range, going down at 102.533. The pair is expected to rally back to at least 104.03 to 104. 383 if the short-term rally for today’s session proves to be strong enough for the currency pair.


    Market players are expected to mainly focus on the upcoming elections even with new economic events taking place, after which, the market is expected to shift its focus on the expected Fed rate hike this coming December. These events are expected to induce an upward shift in the value of the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to release the minutes of its latest Monetary Policy Meeting, while the Average Cash Earnings is expected to be released at 0.2%. Minor reports from the US to be released this Monday are the Loan Officer Survey, Labor Market Conditions, 10-Year Bond Auctions and Consumer Credit data.
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