Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
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  1. #81

    Default Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 6, 2016

    The EUR/GBP traded higher by 3 points, going up at 0.8403. However, the pair still remains at the bottom rung of its trading average since the GBP has been bouncing back during the past sessions, especially since UK economic data reports has shown that the Brexit vote did not have that much of an adverse effect to the economy in contradiction to the initial speculations. Financial institutions such as the IMF has also stated that they are now reevaluating the situation since the Bank of Englandís foresight has prevented further damage to the UK economy.

    Meanwhile, the EUR went slightly higher at 84 pence. However, this is not far from Fridayís all-week low of 83.76 points. The construction and manufacturing surveys for the eurozone showed a major comeback, while the manufacturing PMI data recovered from Julyís three-year low and traded at 53.3 points in August, its highest trading point reached in 10 months. On the other hand, the construction PMI data went up to 49.2 points from Julyís 45.9 points, going over the speculations indicated in economic polls.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  2. #82

    Default Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: September 7, 2016

    The NZD/USD pair weakened in relation to the USD, trading at 0.7231 points after the Reserve Bank of Australia held fast to its interest rates and monetary policies. The NZD might increase after the release of data from the GlobalDairyTrade auction tonight, where there is an expected surge in the prices of milk powder. Traders and speculators are now monitoring the data for wholesale trade for the second quarter, as well as an update on the RBAís interest rates.

    On the other hand, borrowers are expecting even lower interest rates following low inflation rates. Statistics New Zealand released a report last Monday showing that the Consumer Price Index went up by 0.4% as of June 30. The RBA is predicting that inflation rates would go up by 0.6%, and economists are now expecting the bank to cut down its cash rates by up to 2%.

    Westpac has also stated that based on the market prices of financial products, there is now an 80% chance of the RBA cutting down the OCR by up to 70% prior to the release of rates.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  3. #83

    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 8, 2016

    The USD continued to plummet against the JPY during Wednesdayís trading session, dropping by -0.55% or 0.564 points to trade at 101.445 points. This drop in rates was mostly caused by a negative-leaning US economic data, which reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike within the month, and protective sell stops are also being triggered by every new low encountered.

    The Institute for Supply Managementís data release for the non-manufacturing purchasing managersí index also fell at 51.4 points last August, the largest drop seen for the data since November 2008, especially since traders and speculators were expecting 55.4 points. Traders are speculating that the fragile economic data can be used by Fed to refrain from increasing its interest rates.

    The labor market conditions data from the Fed also plummeted in August at -0.7 points following a positive data surge in July. On the other hand, the JPY continues to rise following reports that BoJ policymakers had varying opinions prior to the bankís meeting on September 20-21. The said meeting is expected to tackle the bankís stimulus program and conduct a thorough assessment of the said program. Analysts are speculating that the BoJís move to review its stimulus program may be a sign that its policymakers are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of the nationís economic stimulus program.

    The US is also expected to release its most recent job openings report, with investors expecting data to come out at 5.58M, which is a bit lower from the previous data release of 5.62M. Meanwhile, the Fed is also expected to release its most recent Beige Book data. In addition, Esther George from FOMC will also be releasing a statement on Wednesday, which might have an impact on the market especially if there is a discontinuation of the expected interest rate hike in September.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  4. #84

    Default Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: September 9, 2016

    The GBP/USD pair increased by 30 points to trade at 1.3370, hitting its highest trading point since the Brexit vote. The GBP was able to gain strength due to the weakening of the USD and strong economic data. The Bank of England previously underwent criticism from Brexit supporters after the central bank stated that the UK economy would soon face a massive slowdown and a recession after the Brexit vote. Post-Brexit data has shown that the UK economy did not wholly suffer the drastic post-Brexit changes that was initially forecasted by analysts and spectators. However, economists are still speculating that it will not be long before Britain goes into an economic slowdown.

    The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney defended the bankís moves against critics who were saying that the BoE has moved too rashly with regards to its handling of the Brexit shock, particularly in August where the bank cut down on its interest rates, eased lending policies, and expanded its bond-buying mechanisms. Carney has since then stated that the BoE has always expected that the main economic sectors would be able to recover from the referendumís sudden impact in July, and this was shown in the recently published PMI data during the past few days.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  5. #85

    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: September 13, 2016

    The USD/CAD increased by 28 points after a decrease in oil prices caused by a positive US production data and an easing in gold prices. The Canadian dollar is currently trading at 1.3077 points after an increase in international commodity prices, with the USD rallying on Friday after speculations that the Fed might consider an increase in its interest rates within the month.

    The USD is increasing in relation to the CAD after a relatively positive US jobless claims data and negative Canadian building permits report data. According to the US Department of Labor, the jobless claims data up until September 3 decreased by 4,000, going down from 263,000 to 259,000. However, market analysts are still expecting the jobless claims data to go up by 2,000 within the week.

    Canadian building permits data meanwhile went up by 0.8% in July, exceeding initial expectations for an increase of only 0.3%. The housing price index data also saw an improvement, rising to 0.4% from last monthís 0.1%, while the annual score also increased 2.5% to 2.8%. Investors are refraining from buying into the CAD due to the appeal of other riskier currencies.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  6. #86

    Default Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: September 14, 2016

    The NZD/USD pair went lower during the last trading session, going down 12 points to trade at 0.7341 in the light of an impending interest rate increase by the Fed and confusions brought about by a decision from the Bank of Japan. On the other hand, Chinaís industrial production data went well above the expected range but did not seem to bring much support to the commodity currency. The Chinese industrial data increased by 6.3% in August as compared to last year, while retail sales data also exceeded expectations from market speculators.

    Traders are now monitoring data from New Zealand, with the account balance due on Wednesday, economic data results scheduled to come out on Thursday, and the results of the consumer confidence survey set to be released on Friday. The NZD was also supported by an increase in food prices, which can cause inflation rates to ease a little bit. Bond prices from New Zealand also decreased, with yield points at 1.5 basis points, going higher towards the end of the yield curve.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  7. #87

    Default Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 15, 2016

    The EUR weakened while the GBP further increased, causing the EUR/GBP pair to trade at 8.499 points, going down at .0003 or -0.035%. The pair movement has caused a technical reversal top, which signals that investor sentiments are about to drop. Eurostat has also reported on Wednesdayís economic news that the industrial production data decreased by 1.1% in June, with a 0.8% increase in May.

    On the other hand, the UK employment data is showing a resiliency in the UK jobs market, even after the Brexit vote. The Office of National Statistics has reported an increase in employment rates, going up by 174,000 to 31.77 million in just three months since July. These employment rates are the highest in 40 years, with the increase in the number going above the expected range by economists. The unemployment rates also remained at a stagnant range of 4.9% in July. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits went up by 2,400 to 771,000 last August.

    However, wage growth data also experienced a gradual slowdown, causing economists and speculators to have unsteady opinions with the set of data released. However, this strengthening of British employment and jobs data may cause the Bank of England to pay less attention to interest rates and maintain its current stimulus once the bank announces it decisions regarding monetary policies on Thursday.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  8. #88

    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 16, 2016

    The USD/JPY pair dropped 14 points to trade at 102.29 points, well within its recent trading range of between 101.90 and 102.50. The strength of the USD was offset by an impending meeting of the Bank of Japan next week, as well as a renewed demand for the safe haven currency. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Japanese subzero-rates policy had a significant impact in putting downward pressure on interest rates.

    There are also signs that the BoJ will be attempting to sharpen its yield curve by increasing long-term rates and suppressing short-term rates. The Bank of Japan has already purchased more short-term government bonds, shifted its bonds and is currently buying lesser bonds. The percentage of long-term bonds went up by half of a percentage since July. However, in spite of the steepening of the Japanese yield curve, the difference between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds is still half of its value before the effect of negative rates.

    Japanese government bonds had their worst selloff in 20 years, especially since the BoJ will be planning to implement adjustments on the maturity range, causing yields to rise on longer-duration bonds.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  9. #89

    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 20, 2016

    The USD/JPY traded at 101.866, dropping by 0.390 points or -0.38% as traders and investors are preparing for the announcements of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan regarding their respective monetary policies on Wednesday.

    Although the Federal Reserveís announcement on its interest rate policies will be announced in the same period as that of BoJís announcement, analysts are speculating that the BoJís announcement on its monetary policies will have a greater impact on the marketís volatility and movement than that of the Fedís announcement. However, this announcement might give cues regarding an imminent interest rate hike in December, which can strengthen the USD and cause the JPY to lose some of its value.

    The Bank of Japan is also expected to discuss an extensive review of its monetary policy framework, which includes a combination of its asset-buying program with its negative interest rates.

    Speculators are having difficulties with regards to predicting the BoJís movement. Some speculators are saying that the Japanese central bank will be changing its mechanism in exchange of a policy which will be combining an increased stimulus while giving protection to banks which are struggling with dealing with the negative effects of interest rates on their respective deposits.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  10. #90

    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 21, 2016

    The USD/JPY pair went down by 0.169 0r -0.17% to trade at 101.744 points. The US dollar is currently in a tight trading range against the JPY during the last trading session as various market players are waiting for the Bank of Japanís announcement regarding its monetary policies, as well as the Federal Reserveís announcement on Tuesday.

    The USD/JPY slightly weakened after the release of the US housing data, which turned out to be a disappointment for traders and investors. The housing data came out at a yearly rate of 1.14 million units last August, going way below the expected range of 1.19 million units. Construction permits also dropped by 0.4% to go down at 1.14 million units in August.

    Speculators are saying that the Bank of Japan would have to implement programs with significant monetary policy easing and interest rate cuts in order to further weaken the JPY in the long-term frame. The Federal Reserve must also release a hawkish statement which can indicate a possible rate hike in December. The USD/JPY is also expected to appreciate especially if the BoJ releases a more aggressive monetary strategy combined with an expected 12% interest rate raise by the Fed prior to the central bankís announcement. However, if the Fed remains cautious on its policies and refuses to raise its rates, then the USD might weaken and the BoJ would be unable to decrease the value of the Japanese currency.
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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart