China January Trade Data to Benefit from Holiday Distortion
China's January trade data is due on 8 February. Notes from Standard Chartered Research says: While global economic momentum remains weak, the later timing of the Lunar New Year (LNY) should help. We expect export growth of 7.5% y/y versus 9.7% prior. Despite the resilient US recovery, demand from the EU and Japan is lagging, and EM demand has been hit by the USD rally and falling commodity prices. The sub-index of new export orders in the official PMI data showed softer external demand in January. We expect import growth to have fallen by 1% y/y, versus -2.4% in December. Sluggish domestic demand and falling commodity prices should continue to weigh on import growth, but the later LNY will likely act as a boost. We expect the trade surplus to remain high at c.USD 48.5bn.
News are provided by