Market update by UWCFX
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  1. #11

    Default 23.08.2011

    GOLD rush among
    investors continue

    Five days after Gold broke 1800, the precious metal smashed through the 1900 level with investors panicking into Gold as
    the preferred safe haven. 1908 represents a temporarily new record set during last night’s Asia trading.

    At the same time analysts wonder whether the flight into Gold may represent a new bobble
    which it is better to get out before it is, too, late. They argue that Gold is not an industrial metal, and advise
    that this might be the right time to consider oil, silver or palladium as an alternative.

    Stock markets in Europe and US continued the stabilizing, slightly upward trend seen at the beginning of the week in Asia
    making optimists think that the bottom is reached for now. KOSPI (South Korea) is the winner in Asia this

    CHF and Yen continue to be preferred currencies with EURO/USD trading at 1.4350, waiting for whether Bernanke
    and his FED shall come up with a new stimulus package. In Germany Merkel defiantly stated that markets shall
    not be allowed to dictate her policies.

  2. #12

    Default 30.08.2011

    Optimism rules
    in strong markets

    The optimistic sentiments which have ruled the markets since Bernanke’s Friday speech continued
    through yesterday’s Wall Street sessions with Dow adding an impressing 2,26 % and Nasdaq up 3,32 %.
    The Asian stock exchanges are up, and European futures are indicating a new good day on European
    stock exchanges.

    Asian markets are up four day in row. A contributing factor was the strong American consumption figures
    Monday night. Hong Kong was the winner with a gain on 2,2 %. European markets expected to follow
    suit. Healthy rebound in Russian market with a stronger ruble.

    Oil prices are higher with Brent trading on 112,26. Better stock markets have had a negative effect on Gold
    which fall back below 1800. Investors are taking profit and moving into equities. Dollar is falling. Euro/USD
    trading at 1.4525. Market optimism has boosted smaller currencies. Norwegian krones (NOK) with
    strong currency reserves is close to a year high. NOK/USD 5,34.

  3. #13

    Default 31.08.2011

    Mixed sessions
    Gold recovers

    After a mixed session were markets tried to fight off negative news as reduced US consumer optimism Dow Jones tipped into positive territory and ended slightly up; 0,18 % and Nasdaq (0,55 %) following suit. Asian markets were mixed with the South Korean KOSPI gaining after a 15 % free fall during August. European markets dipping between red and blue.

    Gold made a strong recovery with 1835 after last days profit taking and some renewed optimism for equities. The US index for
    consumer sentiment, poured some cold water back in the head of investors thinking that the bottom is reached and the worst over in stock markets. Oil prices are up. Brent is trading on 114 this morning, the highest level seen for weeks.

    Dollar gained ground against the EURO at 1.4429 telling it’s story of an unsettled sovereign debt and looming bank
    crisis within the Euro-zone. Finland’s insistence on firm collaterals before extending any helping hand to Greece, continues to
    rattle market confidence. A stronger Yen tells that safe haven currencies are back in mood.

    After a couple of days respite be prepared for increased currency and market volatility for the rest of the week.

  4. #14



    Chinese industry stagnates
    raises fear of stagflation

    World markets have seen a temporary stabilization during the first three trading days of the week. European markets
    ended up, while US struggled before DOW and Nasdaq finished in blue for the fourth consecutive day. In Asia the South Korean,
    Kospi, jumped 2,5 % gaining back some of the steep losses from first weeks of August.

    The Euro is loosing ground. Euro/USD is again down at 1.4355. Yen somewhat weaker towards the dollar at 76,83. Gold
    at 1822, loosing USD 12 from yesterday’s top. Oil prices are up with NYMEX touching USD 90 level and Brent trading
    at 114.

    August industry production figures for China came in slightly better than July, but confirmed China’s challenge in finding a balance
    between growth and inflation. With stagnating growth in US and Western Europe, Chinese export is struggling with
    weaker export without domestic demand picking up.

    In spite of China being more independent from a possible double dip Western recession, a stagflation in US and Europe with slower growth combined with inflationary pressure shall have a strong negative effect on China and other emerging markets.

  5. #15



    Pessimism back with
    Asian markets in red

    Pessimism ruled in Asia Friday morning with falling markets in nervous waiting for unemployment figures
    coming out of the US later during the day. The Japanese Nikkei was down 1,4 % followed by 1,3 % both in
    Shanghai and Hongkong. South Korean Kospei is falling 1,3 %. In US both Dow (- 1,03 %) and Nasdaq (-1,30 %)
    were down.

    Sluggish economic growth, sovereign debt worries in Europe and global fears for stagflation in the form of a
    combination of weak growth and higher inflation, seemed to be back on the top of the agenda superseding the
    more positive sentiments which have given markets a lift during the last days. US Unemployment numbers
    which is one the best indicators of the health of the economy is expected to stay at 9,1 %.

    Gold and old prices are steady while EURO continues to loose against the Dollar at 1.4243. Expect big
    turbulence in late afternoon trading both in Gold and currencies if the unemployment figures come in
    lower than expected.

  6. #16



    Recession fears scare
    global financial markets

    US unemployment figures sent new shivers through global financial markets on Friday renewing fears for a double dip recession. Unemployment stayed at 9,1 %, missing to add a single new job in August.

    US stock markets plummeted. Dow lost 2,20 % while Nasdaq dipped 2,58 %. European markets were in free fall. Asia markets have fallen steeply during the night and Europe is expected to follow suit during to-day’s trade. US is closed for Labor Day.

    Gold rebounded strongly and reached 1890 during Friday’s night trade, stabilizing around 1880 in this morning’s trade. Silver as well strongly up to 43,30. EURO/USD Is at 1.4150. Oil prices are loosing ground on weaker demand expectations.

    EURO’s down trend is expected to continue. Western European leaders seem unable to get their act together. Merkel lost her sixth
    regional elections in row campaigning on her handling of the sovereign crisis; leaving the electorate confused and bewildered.

  7. #17



    Positive Asia-session
    following weaker YEN

    All the major Asian indexes rallied this morning probably as a result of a weaker YEN trading at 77,25 against USD. Major companies as Toyota, Nissan and Hundai rose sharply on better export expectations. Gold fall back from 1910 peak yesterday and traded on 130 – 1850 range. After yesterday’s steep falls in European and US market, today’s futures are up indicating a good opening in Europe. Euro/USD somewhat stronger on 1.4050.

    Switzerland has with immediate effect decided to peg the Swiss Franc to Euro diminishing its attractiveness as safe haven. With YEN weaker following days of Japanese central bank interventions, investors spotlight is now on smaller currencies as Norwegian and Swedish krones along with Australian dollars. Australia delivered stronger economic growth numbers for August than expected.

    The sovereign debt crisis continues to create shivers on both sides of the Atlantic and in Asia where the Chinese markets also rose this morning after several days decline. Sovereign debt and slow US growth continue to create fears for a double dip recession. Deutsche Bank’s Ackermann warned that present financial and economic signals equals similar alarm warnings seen prior to the 2008 crisis, giving a clear indication that the bumpy markets are with us to stay.

  8. #18



    New stimulus package
    expected from Obama

    A new stimulus package on USD 300 billions is expected when President Obama today is addressing a joint session of Congress. Tax cuts along with infrastructure investments and financial encouragements for companies hiring unemployed workers
    are the ordained medicine for getting the US economy out of a looming recession.

    The indicated initiatives have been well received in Asia. A stronger US economy is seen as necessary for a continued strong Asian export. Australia presented disappointing growth numbers this morning which led to a fall in the Aussie dollar. EURO/USD is trading at 1.4062 prior to the rent decision of European Central Bank (ECB) later today. Gold at 1828 is picking up from last day’s low. Forecasts predicting 50 % rise in Gold for 2012. Oil prices steady with NYMEX at 89,50 and Brent hovering towards 116.

    Yen continues to slide; 77,70 against USD. Increased pressure on Norwegian (NOK) and Swedish (SEK) krones expected during the next days as investors look for new opportunities.

  9. #19



    Obama package
    USD 443 Billions

    Obama proposed yesterday a 443 Billion support package to encourage growth. The stimulus is concentrated on infrastructure upgrading of schools, roads and bridges along with pay roll tax cuts favoring both employees and small businesses. Markets have reacted positively, but questions remain whether the President get the measures through Congress.

    USD is falling slightly against other currencies: EURO/USD 1.3895. YEN/USD 77.48. Oil prices strengthen. Brent at 114,78. Gold decreases to 1860. New figures indicate Chinese inflation is dampening. US markets ended in red after FED chief Bernanke’s speech avoided given markets any clear directions.

    Lack of ability to reduce deficit and start wanted reforms raise new questions on Greece and European sovereign
    debt. ECB keep interest rate unchanged on 1,5 %.

  10. #20



    EURO under
    hard pressure

    The EURO continued its downward slide in Asia this morning trading at its lowest level for months against the USD: 1.3536
    amidst Greek default speculation. Euro/USD has fallen from 1,41 levels since the midst of last week.

    After Greece postponed it’s early September meeting with the controlling troika from ECB (European Central Bank), IMF (International Monetary Fund) and EU (European Commission), markets have been ripe with rumors that Greece would mishandle its promised obligations leading to a no payment of the September tranche. This shall for all practical purposes mean a technical Greek default.

    Germany tired of Greek promises is playing hard ball threatening to bail out it’s own banks banks with a strong Greek debt exposure and leaving Greece to leave the Euro. Such a step shall, however, have unpredictable and grave consequences for the whole EURO-zone. It seems therefore unlikely that any of the involved EU-parties shall permit this to happen in the short run. A more likely scenario is an orderly default, payment of the September tranche an preparations for Greece leaving the Euro in a couple of years time.

    In the mean time the currency unrest is supposed to continue with Euro/USD testing in some month’s time its bottom 1,19 level. Gold is keeping steady at 1855. Oil prices sliding with Brent at 1.1150. Future for the stock markets both in Europe and US down.

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Market update by UWCFX