Market update by UWCFX
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  1. #41

    Default 14.10.2011

    Spain is downgraded.
    Added pressure on EU

    The rating agency Standard and Poor has downgraded Spain on weak economic growth prospects. S & P sees zero growth for Spain in 2012 due to high unemployment and huge private credits. The downgrading has increased the pressure on EU-countries to recapitalize banks and solve the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. One hinder was overcome yesterday when Slovakia as finally ratified the the proposed emergency fund.

    After a strong market rally over the last days investors are back on the fence. European markets fell. Dow Jones was down 0,35 % and most Asian markets ended in red. The Euro is stabile against USD at 1.3789, Japanese Yen is falling against the dollar trading at 76, 90. Brent oil is steady on the USD 111 level while NYMEX is down to 84,50 on increased oil storage numbers from the US.

    Market futures give no clear indication on how the decisive US-markets shall open today. Analysts seem still to be optimistic as to a temporary solution to the problems within the Euro-zone. Spain’s downgrading is, however, a stark reminder that Greece is not a lonely sovereign problem. Portugal yesterday introduced new emergency matters to tackle it’s grave economic problems and Italy is on the verge of a new government crisis. The fear of a serious contagion is overwhelming. Investors have to be prepared for some dumpy weeks ahead.

  2. #42
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2011


    Very useful information here. Seems like this thread should have more followers though.

  3. #43



    EU receives one week
    to get house in order

    The Ministers of finance within the Group of 20, the strongest industrial countries in the world meeting in Paris during the weekend, have given the EU a week dead line to get their house in order. This has lifted the stock exchanges in Asia which continue to raise after seeing the strongest weekly rally in six months. The increases indicate strong belief that European leaders shall find a way out of it’s sovereign debt and looming bank crisis. Recent statements give raise to some optimism that a way out shall be found.

    The MSCI Asia Pacifice, an index for the Asian stock exchanges, is up 1,7 % Monday morning. Five shares are up while one falling in price. Last week the index rose 3,4 %. The Japanese Nikkei is up 1,46 %. Australia jumps 1,66 along with a stronger Aussie dollar. The South Korean Kospi increases 1, 1 percentage.

    The Euro/usd is stabile at 1,3842. Gold is trading at 1682, more or less the same level as seen last week. The US Congress has passed a resolution against China, threatening increased tariffs on Chinese import goods, and expressing strong dissatisfaction with the presumably low Chinese Huan. This in a situation whereby the USD has depreciated or lost in value against most world currencies. The strongest gainers against USD being Norway and Indonesia which see their currencies strengthened 6,92 % against the dollar. This trend towards a weaker USD is seen to continue for the nearest months.

  4. #44



    Germany sinks hopes
    of an early recovery

    More careful statements from German leaders on the sovereign debt crisis along with GDP numbers from China indicating somewhat slower economic growth sent world markets in red yesterday wiping out most profits gained over the last ten trading days. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq in USA fell with 2 percentages. The Shanghai composite, Hang Seng, dropped 3,4 %.

    Last quarterly figures for China indicate continued strong growth with a GDP growth of 9,1 %. This is somewhat slower than market expectations and represent an eight consecutive quarter fall in GDP. Industrial production is, however, up with export and housing numbers stagnating. The overall picture of Chinese economy is positive, and the steep falls in Asia this morning may be seen as an overreaction more reflecting the continued nervousness surrounding the European debt crisis.

    The spokesman of Angela Merkel yesterday plaid down unrealistic market expectations as to a quick fix to the European debt crisis after the G-21 meeting. His statement that ‘these problems have been with us for the last two years, and they are not going to whither away over night”, immediately turned market around. The EUro/Usd fall steeply from a month high. It has recovered somewhat in early trade today at 1.3772. Oil prices are down; Brent 110 and Nymex 84.

  5. #45



    Markets rally on
    EU-solution rumors

    After a dismal start on the trading week, rumors on a French-German agreement on increasing the emergency fund for sovereign debt and bank recapitalization to 2 Trillion Euros, spurred a strong world market rally initiated in US where Dow rose 1,58 and Nasdaq 1,63 %. Asian markets jump, and European futures are pointing up. US futures are down on disappointing quarterly results also from Apple. Finance and banking shares have recovered. Bank of America is up 7 %.

    The rumors from Europe has led to a strong rebound in the EURO. Euro/USD trading at 1.3812. Oil prices are up; NYMEX at 88 and Brent on 111 levels. Greece is facing a Parliamentarian vote on continued austerity measures on Thursday. All Greece is on strike. Premier Papandreou is seeing the vote as decisive to avoid default. Moodys has downgraded Spain credit rating. This does not, however, place Spain on the same credit standing as Greece, Europe and Portugal.

    In spite of some renewed market optimism, Angela Merkel yesterday repeated that the European credit crisis is deep rooted and shall be with the markets for a long time to come.

  6. #46



    Markets down on
    internal EU-quarrels

    Last hours disagreements between France and Germany on the role of the proposed new emergency bail out fund, have created new fears and dispair in global markets. Markets are back in deep red in US and Asia and futures for Europe and opening in US are pointing down threatening to wipe out gains over the last weeks.

    The Euro is falling along with oil (NYMEX 86 and Brent 108) and commodity prices. Copper prices, one of the best indicators of economic growth, are falling for the seventh consecutive day. Even safe haven gold, is falling 65 dollar from from 1675 at the start of the week to present 1610. The US Federal reserve, FED, indicated yesterday that the US economy is showing slow, but steady progress with no turn around in either employment or housing. This careful statement, however, boosted the strength of the dollar.

    An emergency meeting in Frankfurt yesterday evening between Merkel and Sarkozy ended in no results or statements with mixed signals coming from the countries top officials prior to the crucial EU-summit on Sunday both to the functioning of the emergency fund and the “hair cut” for Greece. As a prelude demonstrators came out in great numbers and changed central Athens into somewhat of a war zone, while Parliament discussed new austerity measures. Inside the EU it still seems to be disagreements as to whether the “hair cut” shall be as big as 50 %.

  7. #47

    Default 21.10.2011

    Nervous markets wait
    outcome of EU-summit

    Global markets experienced big volatility with steep fall and rebound in currencies and commodities
    during yesterday. No clear direction I the stock markets in sight. . Headlines and rumors continued to rule
    the day. Dow turned around midways into the session. After seeing steep losses it ended up 0,32 %.
    Euro/USD went between 1.36 and 1.38 reflecting more or less substantiated leaks from German –
    French negotiations, at present trading higher at 1.3803.

    Oil prices are stabilizing with NYMEX on 86,50 and Brent 111.69. News on Khadafi’s death have not
    seriously influenced prices. Gold is up at 1629 after it saw bottom levels on 1605. USD/Yen is flat on
    76,755. Forecasts see a strong Yen on Euro volatility and USD weakness over the next couple of weeks.

    The Papandreou-government survived a critical vote in the Greek Parliament over the individual part of the
    austerity measures while street demonstrations saw it’s first death toll. Negotiations on the final
    package to be voted on EU-summit on Sunday continue. Last rumors tell about an emergency fund for
    sovereign debt and recapitalization on banks of 1 Billion Euro. Whether the final “hair cut” for Greece
    shall end on 50 or 60 % seems still left open.

  8. #48



    Negotiations of the European leaders
    keep investors in suspense

    At EU summit in Brussels which first stage has passed on October, 23rd, leaders of the European countries have depicted an overall picture of the program of rescue of region. In particular potential measures on support of banks have been planned and questions of increase in a role of IMF in a question of rendering assistance to region were mentioned. Last decision will be taken on Wednesday, on October, 26th.

    Indexes grew last week and today we also expect positive opening because all investors live in hope that the European regulators will take measures in the decision of debt crisis. Positive reporting of some companies also have supported purchasing moods. According to WSJ, quarter results about 70 % of the reported companies have surpassed expectations of analysts.

    Following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 2,31 % and was closed on a level of 11808,79 points, an index of wide market S&P 500 has risen on 1,88 % to level 1238,25 points, and the index of hi-tech companies Nasdaq has raised on 1,49 % to a level 2637,46 points.

    The prices for oil and gold also show an ascending trend. NYMEX is on 88,54 and Brent 110.76. Gold is up at 1652.28.

  9. #49



    The fourth week of October:
    European summit in focus

    On Monday, on October, 24th, American indexes were closed with an increase. Corporate reporting and increasing oil prices have supported purchasing moods. At the same time, market growth limits the European factor. Despite some progress at the summit, regulators can't come to the consent on some questions, as for example, what share of losses will be incurred by private creditors on the Greek debt. Investors hope for a positive outcome of the second summit on Wednesday, but at the same time while some uncertainty remains, investors are careful, and we can see rather low volumes.

    Following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 0,89 % and was closed on a level of 11913,62 points, an index of wide market S&P 500 has risen on 1,29 % to level 1254,19 points, and Nasdaq has reached on 2,35 % to a level 2699,44 points.

    The price for futures for oil of mark Light has raised on $3,87 or 4,4 % to level of $91,27 for barrel. Oil reached its maximum since 3rd of August.

    The price for futures for gold with delivery in December has raised on $16,20 or 1 % to value of $1652,30 for ounce. Gold has risen due to the fact that dollar is weakening towards all other reserve currencies.

    Today trading session can be affected by the statistics from USA.

  10. #50



    Nervous markets wait
    outcome of EU-summit

    Leading western indexes have decreased yesterday because of the published weak macroeconomic statistics. As well as the concern of investors that the anti-recessionary plan is not going to be accepted after it became known that the meeting of Ministers of Finance of the European Union countries, planned for October, 26th, is cancelled.

    No clear direction in the stock markets in sight. As a result the American market has finished Tuesday’s trading session with fall of leading indexes on 1,7-2,3 %, due to the negative data of macroeconomic statistics and some weak reports of the companies. Dow reached level of 11706.62 with a decrease of 1.73%, S&P 500 was closed on a level of 1229.05 points with a decrease of more than 2%.

    The extremely disturbing, yesterday has appeared the data on an index of consumer confidence to economy of the USA which in October has fallen to the minimum level for last 2,5 years, practically having reached crisis levels of 2008. From 10 indexes of sectors of the wide market of the USA yesterday have decreased all 10, and the financial sector which index has lost 3,1 % became the outsider.

    Nevertheless, futures for share indexes of the USA this morning add 0,4-0,5 %, Brent continues movement below $112, increase above the given level assumes further growth.

    Negotiations on the final plan seem still left open.

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