Market update by UWCFX
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  1. #81


    Daily Update – 27.02.2012
    The Summit has Come to the End,
    but Questions Remained the Same

    High appetite to risks remains in the markets, which helps indexes to be kept near yearly maximums. During weekends there were no any significant events, which could be capable to change an alignment of forces in the beginning of this week. At summit G20 the arrangement on possibility of allocation of additional funds of IMF has been reached, however it will be possible only if Europe will realize additional anti-crisis measures. According to the head of IMF, K. Lagard, it is a question of additional 500 billion dollars.

    On Friday Government of Greece has directed the offer to private creditors on an exchange of bonds with reduction of their nominal value, now creditors have 10 days to consider this offer. The following provision has been included in the offer of an exchange: In case if 66% from total number of creditors will agree on "voluntary" restructuring - the remained bonds will be restructured compulsorily. In our opinion, it will have bad influence of the markets and fall of ratings.

    Positive spirit remains in the commodity markets due to the upcoming LTRO: copper has returned to a level of 8.5 thousand dollars per ton; the oil of mark Light came nearer to a level of 110 dollars/barr., and Brent has finished week above a price of 126 dollars/barr., having updated a historical maximum. However, already today we can see some cooling in the commodity markets: the euro already is under symbolical pressure as expected in the middle of the week huge input of liquidity from ECB (on Wednesday), will break balance between dollar and euro. It is not excluded that probable correction on euro will have influence also on growth of raw actives.

    From important events today, we are expecting news from Germany where the package of the help to Greeks should be discussed. However, it is improbable that the German parliament will refuse granting of additional funds to Greece. Therefore today, quite possibly, the markets will lie down in a side trend in expectation of events in the American stock market.

  2. #82


    Daily Market Update - 01.03.2012

    FEDís Bernanke turned
    markets upside down

    The quantitative easing markets had hoped for were not included in FEDís Ben Bernanke statement to the Financial Committee in Congress yesterday. This had an immediate effect. Shares, bonds, oil prices and gold dropped dramatically in minutes. The gold prices fall 100 dollar to recover to 1721 during trading in Asia. Dow Jones had to give up its flirt with the 13 000 level and ended on 12 952. The dollar was strongly strengthened. The Euro fall back, but has recovered from bottom levels. Euro/USD is in the morning trade at 1.3345. USD/JPY at 81,01 with Yen falling further.

    Bullish global markets which had been looking forward to Bernanke giving signals for a possible third round of quantitative easing with the Federal Reserve letting more funds into the money market, were disappointed. Bernanke repeated his sober message of moderate economic growth. BNP in the US increased in fourth quarter to 3 %. 2,8 % was expected. Quantitative easing would have given global markets fighting its way out if recession, an extra impetus.

    The effects of Bernanke disappointing markets are probably not, however, going to be long lasting. News from Japan reveals stronger investments and Chinese manufacturing numbers for the last three months indicate that the growth problems in Europe and US are going to be temporary. The new strongly emerging markets keep their appetite for oil and metals. Oil prices have recovered and NYMEX is back at 107. Brent trading at 122,25.

    After several bullish weeks Asian markets were marginally down this morning pointing towards a possible correction in world equity markets after big gains. It is Also worth noticing that China has reduced their US treasury bill holdings to proportionally its lowest level in years. This has been a gradual process. China has for a long time been aware of the vulnerability its big exposure in US treasury bills And bonds have created. It has therefore obviously been a deliberate policy to scale down this exposure to more balanced and controllable level.

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