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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #441

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    LiteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in the flat


    Current trend

    Investors failed to determine the direction of trading in the pair USD/CAD on Tuesday, August 29, and the instrument closed around zero and showed active, but mixed dynamics of trading during the day.

    Canadian dollar showed weak reaction to the Tuesday release of Canadian macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the index of prices for raw materials dropped by 0.6% MoM after a fall by 3.6% last month. Manufacturing prices index dropped by 1.5% in July on a monthly bas after a fall by 1.1% in June. The real dynamics of the indicator was much worse than expected.

    On Wednesday, August 30, investors will focus their attention on macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Thus, the publication of detailed assessment of the US GDP in Q2 2017 is expected at 15:30 (GMT+2).

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is slightly narrowing in the lower part. MACD histogram is slightly growing keeping a weak buy signal (and remaining above the signal line).
    Stochastic is showing slightly more stable dynamics and is located in the middle of its area.

    Resistance levels: 1.2548, 1.2597, 1.2617, 1.2654, 1.2689.
    Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2464, 1.2439, 1.2412.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2500 with targets at 1.2548 or 1.2597 and stop-loss at 1.2464. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
    Breaking down the level of 1.2500 may be a signal to corrective sales with target around 1.2439 and stop-loss at 1.2548. The period of implementation is 2 days.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  2. #442

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    LiteForex EUR/USD: the correction can end

    Current trend

    On Wednesday the pair was correcting and now has reached the level of 1.1865.
    The US currency growth is due to relative reduction of tense on the Korean peninsula and to positive economic data publication. The new North Korea missile launch didnít lead to military USA response, moreover, Secretary of Defense James Mattis noted that the diplomatic possibilities of the conflict resolution are not exhausted, which resulted in outflow of investors from shelter assets. In addition, the USD was supported by preliminary USA GDP data (in the second quarter its growth exceeded the expectations and reached the level of 0.3%) and August ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data (instead of expected fall the indicator grew from 201K to 237K).

    At the moment the falling of the pair slowed, and itís trading around 1.1890Ė1.1870. Investors are waiting for the EU Consumer Price Index publication, which is very important before the ECB meeting next week. The index is expected to grow from 1.3% to 1.4%, which can lead to the reversal of the price and the beginning of the new growth of EUR.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the pair is tending to the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 1.1800, and after breakdown can go lower, to the area of 1.1720 (Murray ) and 1.1600 (Murray , Fibonacci correction 23.6%). The downward movement will develop in case of negative reaction of the market to the EU inflation data. The indicators confirm the possibility: Stochastic has reversed downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone.

    The upward trend will develop after the price is set above the level of 1.1960 (Murray ). In this case it can grow to the area of 1.2085 (Murray ) and 1.2200 (Murray ).

    Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1600.
    Resistance levels: 1.1960, 1.2085, 1.2200.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1840 with the targets at 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1600 and stop loss at 1.1880.
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1960 or after the reversal near the level of 1.1800 with the targets at 1.2085, 1.2200 and stop loss 1.1920 and 1.1770.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  3. #443

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    LiteForex NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar under pressure

    Current trend

    NZD reduced considerably against the US currency during trading on Thursday, August 31, marking a new local minimum since June 6. However, with the release of uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA the investor's sentiment has changed, and the instrument managed to regain the majority of lost positions by the closing of the daily session.

    The reason for negative NZD dynamics was weak statistics from New Zealand. Namely, business optimism index by RBNZ dropped from 19.4 to 18.3 points in August. During the morning session on September 1 the pair received moderate support from Chinese data. Manufacturing PMI Caixin grew from 51.1 to 51.6 points in August against the forecast of reduction to 50.9 points. Other activities remain low as the market is waiting for the US labor market report for August.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate decrease. The price range is moderately widening. MACD still preserves a stable downward trend. Stochastic is reducing but is located close to the border with the oversold area.
    Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7222, 0.7257, 0.7297, 0.7335.
    Support levels: 0.7160, 0.7130, 0.7101.

    Trading tips

    A reversal near the level of 0.7190 with further breakdown of 0.7160 may indicate the continuation of sales. In this case the target of the "bears" may be located around 0.7100. The period of implementation is 2 days.

    Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7257 or 0.7297 and stop-loss at 0.7130. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  4. #444

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    LiteForex AUD/USD: the pair is showing minor growth

    Current trend

    AUD is growing during the morning session on September 4 after the update of a local maximum dated back to August 30 in the end of the previous week. The instrument is supported by the weakness of the US currency that is experiencing pressure again due to the tightening of the geopolitical situation around North Korea.
    Macroeconomic statistics released in Australia on Monday has mixed influence on the pair. TD Securities inflation data in August showed growth by 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY which practically meets the data for the previous period. The indicator of income from main activities of companies in Q2 2017 dropped by 4.5% in quarterly terms after earlier growth by 6.0%. Investors expected it to dectease by 4.0% on the quarterly basis.

    Trading activity on Monday will be reduced as the US markets will be closed on Monday due to the Labor Day. Investors will focus on the release of RBA minutes on Tuesday, September 5, at 06:30 (GMT+2).

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate slight growth. The price range remains quite unchanged and quite limited. MACD histogram is slightly growing keeping a weak buy signal (and remaining above the signal line). Stochastic is growing, approaching the border of the overbought zone once again.
    Resistance levels: 0.7978, 0.7994, 0.8012, 0.8041.
    Support levels: 0.7949, 0.7917, 0.7889, 0.7865.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened after the outbreak of the levels 0.7978 or 0.7994 with targets at 0.8040, 0.8060 and top-loss at 0.7950. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

    Alternatively, short positions may be opened after breaking down the level of 0.7949 with target at 0.7889 and stop-loss at 0.7978. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  5. #445

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    LiteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for comments from FOMC members

    Current trend

    The pair started the week with growth to 1.1920 after North Korea carried out nuclear missiles testing, and the USA replied with tough rhetoric. However, by now the price has corrected to 1.1880 (middle line of Bollinger Bands at H4).

    Today the most important part of the releases is traditional financial statistics. Services PMIs of Germany and Eurozone for August failed to show material changes or cause considerable market reaction. The indicator for Germany grew from 53.4 to 53.5 points, and for Eurozone reduced from 54.9 to 54.7 points. The statistics on the volume of retail sales in Eurozone was mixed.

    In the USA attention should be paid to statements by the Fed's members Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari that are especially important in view of the upcoming September meeting of the Fed.

    Support and resistance

    Technically, the pair is trading within the upper Bollinger Band between 1.1840 (Murrey level ) and 1.1962 (Murrey level ) and may continue moving in it as the investors are not likely to take risks before the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday. In case of breakdown of the level of 1.1840 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands the fall may continue to 1.1720 (Murrey level ) and 1.1660 (lower line of Bollinger Bands). Otherwise the price may go up to the upper border of the range at 1.1962and in case of its breakout go further to 1.2085 (Murrey level ). Indicator show decrease: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

    Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1660.
    Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2085, 1.2200.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation short positions should be opened below the level of 1.1840 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 1.1720, 1.1660 and stop-loss at 1.1880.
    Long positions should be opened above 1.1900 or in case of reversal at 1.1840 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2085 and stop-loss at 1.1870 and 1.1800.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  6. #446

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    LiteForex NZD/USD: general review

    Current trend

    New Zealand dollar grew against USD during trading on Tuesday supported by the growth of prices for dairy products by 0.3% (the highest in the last three months) and reduced returns on US state bonds. US markets opened after a holiday, and a number of important macroeconomic releases is planned for the current week. Investors are concerned that the concequences of Harvey storm may lead to the fall of economic indicators in the short term whic may influence the Fed's decision on the possible increase of interest rates this year. Potential nuclear crisis in North Korea also has a negative impact on the rate of the US currency.
    Today traders have to pay special attention *to the release of data on Markit PMI changes and services PMI by ISM.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7185, 0.7160, 0.7130.
    Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7280, 0.7300, 0.7330.

    Trading tips


    Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7260 with target at 0.7330 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
    Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7200 with targets at 0.7150 and stop-loss at 0.7230.
    The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  7. #447

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    LiteForex USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

    On the D1 chart the price is around the level of 109.37 (main support) ó 108.59 (extreme support). The zone seems quite strong as the pair has been testing it in vain since April. Currently the price is approaching the cyclical line near which it may reverse upwards. In this case the growth of the price may continue through a number of levels (110.15 and 110.93 ) to the lower border of horizontal channel 111.71 (bottom of the channel). The continuation of the fall is possible if the price consolidates below 108.59 . In this case the pair may decrease to 107.81 (final resistance) and 106.25 (for W1 chart). Technical indicators show the possibility of the fall but in limited scope. Stochastic is directed downwards but has approached the oversold area. MACD histogram shows indicators of bearish divergence, the occurrence of which will open the way to purchases. *

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 108.59 (extreme support), 107.81 (final support), 106.25 (rotation and reversal in W1).
    Resistance levels: 109.37 (main support), 110.15 (stop, reversal), 110.93 (rotation, reversal), 111.71 (bottom of the channel).

    Trading tips

    In the current situation buy positions may be opened at the level above109.37 or in case of a turn around 108.59 with targets at 110.15, 110.98, 111.71 and stop-losses at 109.00 and 108.30. Short positions can be opened if the price consolidates below 108.59 with targets at 107.81, 106.25 and stop-loss at 109.00.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  8. #448
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    LiteForex XAG/USD: silver dynamics is mixed

    Current trend

    During trading session on Tuesday, September, 12, silver prices insignificantly grew and stepped off the local minimum since the beginning of the month. The instrument is trying to enter the upward correction after downward gap opening on Monday due to the fall of the market demand on shelter assets after DPRK refused to test missiles last weekend, which helped to release the tense upon the North Korea situation.
    On Wednesday, September, 13, the investors are waiting for Producer Price Index publication at 14:30 (GMT+2) in the USA. The MoM value is expected to grow by 0.3% MoM after the fall by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. In addition, the Monthly Budget Statement will be published at 20:00 (GMT+2) in the USA.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are steady growing. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of the controversial trade dynamic this week. It’s better to use the channel trading strategy.
    MACD is going down, keeping weakening sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to wait until the signal is clear, as current readings are uninformative.

    Stochastic has reached the border of the oversold area and reversed into flat, reacting to the attempt of correctional growth in the beginning of the week. It’s better to wait until the situation is clear and the indicator reverses fully.
    Resistance levels: 17.87, 18.00, 18.17.
    Support levels: 17.66, 17.53, 17.38, 17.27, 17.16.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the levels of 17.87 or 18.00. Take profit is 18.20–18.30. Stop loss is 17.80–17.70. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

    The alternative is the return of strong “bearish” trend after the breakdown of the level of 17.66. In this case it’s better to open short positions with the target around 17.30. Stop loss is 17.90. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

  9. #449
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    LiteForex USD/CHF: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

    Current trend

    US dollar showed unstable growth against Swiss franc during trading on Tuesday, September 19, having lost the majority of advantages by the closing of the daily session. The reason was the release of uncertain data in the dynamics of housing construction in the USA in August. In turn, franc positively reacted to the strengthening of the business sentiment index and current economic conditions assessment in Germany.

    During the morning session on September 20 the pair is showing cautious dynamics connected with the release of final minutes of the Fed's meeting at 20:00 (GMT+2) and the beginning of a follow-up conference at 20:30 (GMT+2). Moreover, a quarterly report by the National Bank of Switzerland is to be released at 15:00 (GMT+2).

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands on D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD indicator is growing but is unable to consolidate above zero.
    Stochastic preserves stable downward direction.

    Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9677, 0.9702, 0.9724.
    Support levels: 0.9615, 0.9584, 0.9562, 0.9541.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9650 with targets at 0.9700, 0.9725 and stop-loss at 0.9610. The period of implementation is 2 days.
    Short positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9584 with targets at 0.9520, 0.9500 and stop-loss at 0.9630. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

  10. #450
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    LiteForex EUR/USD: the Fed's balance is reducing, but the interest rate has not changed

    Current trend

    On Wednesday the pair was rapidly corrected after the Fed decided to start the process of budget cutting in October. Currently the budget of the regulator makes up about $4.47 trln. The market positively reacted to this decision, and the pair dropped to 1.1860. However the tightening of USD may be temporary first of all due to small volumes of reduction. On the first stage of the program the balance is expected to be reduced by $10 bln a month, and the next year the sum will be increased to $20 bln.
    However, the issue of interest rate increase was postponed as expected, and it remained on the previous level of 1.25%. According to the follow-up statement recent inflation increase was of temporary nature and had been caused by recent storms, but generally CPI would be below the target level for a long time. To confirm this, the Fed reduced its basic inflation forecast in the current year from 1.7% to 1.5%.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the pair started upward correction the targets of which may be located at 1.1960 (middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [4/8]) and 1.2000 (Murrey level [5/8]). Otherwise the price may return to the level of September minimums at 1.1870 (Murrey level [1/8]) and drop below to 1.1840 (Murrey level [0/8]) and 1.1810 (Murrey level [-1/8]).
    Support levels: 1.1870, 1.1840, 1.1810.
    Resistance levels: 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2025.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1960, 1.2000 and stop-loss at 1.1880.
    Short positions may be opened below the level of 1.1870 with targets at 11.1840, 1.1810 and stop-loss at 1.1900.

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