Tifia Daily Market Analytics
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  1. #191

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    S&P500: indexes "lay down into the drift"
    28/12/2017
    Current dynamics

    The dollar continues to scale down. The index of the dollar WSJ, which estimates its rate to the basket of 16 other currencies, fell 0.4% on Thursday. He declined during seven of the last eight sessions. Many of the trading ideas associated with the expectation of dollar growth are beginning to unfold.
    The dollar is under pressure, despite the adoption of laws on tax reform, which, according to many economists, should support the growth of the US economy. Tax cuts from 35% to 21% (previously assumed to be 20%), according to supporters of reforms, will also support inflation, which will allow the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening policies in 2018. Most taxes will be reduced from January, and by February many workers will take higher salaries.
    At the same time, on the eve of New Year holidays, trading volumes remain low. American stock indexes remain in narrow ranges for the second week in a row. Investors in the stock market also continue to assess the impact of the recently adopted tax bill on the US economy. Economic indicators of the US economy are still favorable for the stock market on the eve of 2018.
    The S & P500 grew in December by 1.3%, and from the beginning of the year by 20%. Overall, the S & P500 remains positive. Nevertheless, traders prefer to take a wait-and-see position in the stock market.
    In the case of breakdown of the local resistance level at 2693.0 (December and year highs), the index will continue to grow.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 2675.0, 2648.0, 2640.0, 2625.0, 2580.0, 2490.0
    Resistance levels: 2693.0, 2700.0, 2710.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 2670.0. Stop-Loss 2694.0. Objectives 2660.0, 2648.0, 2625.0, 2610.0, 2580.0, 2500.0, 2490.0
    Buy Stop 2694.0 Stop-Loss 2670.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2710.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #192

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    EUR/USD: the dollar lost to the euro more than 13%
    29/12/2017
    Current dynamics


    Today is the last trading day of the outgoing year, and the dollar remains the focus of investors' attention, demonstrating a large-scale decline. This year became worst in a decade for the index of the dollar WSJ, dropping from the beginning of the year by 7.3%.
    Euro since the beginning of the year has strengthened to the dollar by 13.6%, which was the maximum growth since 2003. The British pound in 2017 rose to the dollar by 9.1%, and this happens despite the still unclear prospects for negotiations of the UK with the EU over Brexit.
    In December, finally, the US Senate fully approved tax reform, which envisages an unprecedented tax cut from US corporations from 35% to 21% (previously 20% was assumed). Reform, according to its supporters, should support the growth of the US economy. It will also accelerate inflation, which will allow the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening policies in 2018.
    And, nevertheless, investors are actively selling the dollar, the fall of which does stop neither positive US macro statistics, nor adoption of new tax legislation in the US, nor the Fed's actions to tighten monetary policy. As you know, the Fed raised interest rates three times in 2017, and three more increases are scheduled for 2018.
    Probably, the focus of investors' attention in 2018 will be the dynamics of wages in the US. Most taxes will be reduced from January, and by February many workers will take higher salaries. If wages are growing steadily, then, while maintaining the stability of the economy and the US labor market, interest rates can rise faster than market participants suggest.
    It is possible that the actions of the Fed will still be able to reverse the situation in the new year with a deteriorating attitude toward the dollar. The reason for the reversal of the market and the bearish trend of the dollar may be the repatriation of profits earned abroad by US companies. As is known, within the framework of the tax reform, a one-time privilege for the repatriation of profits and capital to the United States is envisaged. If in the next few months US companies begin to return money to the United States, earned in other countries, it will cause an increase in demand for the dollar.
    In recent months, unexpected movements and fluctuations in exchange rates have occurred on the market. Also, we should not discount the earlier statements of Donald Trump about the need for a weak dollar, including in order to increase the competitiveness of American goods abroad.
    Thus, the intrigue around the dollar and its dynamics in the new year persists.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The pair EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend long positions.
    At the beginning of the European session, the pair EUR / USD broke through the resistance level at 1.1960 (November highs) and continues to rise towards the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and 1.2100 mark.
    You can return to consideration of short positions only after the breakthrough of the short-term support level 1.1875 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). And only after the price returns to the zone below the support levels 1.1800 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of corrective growth from the lows reached in March 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900) you can return to consideration of short (already mid-term) positions with targets at support level 1.1550 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
    So far, long positions are preferable.
    Support levels: 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1875, 1.1850, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1650, 1.1540
    Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1875, 1.1850, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1650, 1.1550
    Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #193

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    Brent: the rising dynamics of prices
    09/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    With the coming of the new year, the decline in the dollar, especially noticeably observed at the end of the past year, continued. Nevertheless, the dollar is gradually beginning to win back the lost positions.
    Despite the fact that the negative dynamics of the dollar is observed in relation to commodity currencies, such as Canadian, New Zealand, Australian dollars, against the euro and the assets-shelters (yen, franc, gold), the dollar is strengthening.
    Meanwhile, with the coming of the new year, oil prices are also rising. During today's Asian trading session, the price of Brent crude oil was again in the zone of multi-month highs near the level of 68.00 dollars per barrel. The last time the price was at current levels in May 2015.
    Cold frosty weather in the US and riots in Iran, held several days ago, provoked a sharp rise in oil prices at the beginning of the year. According to various estimates, Iran possesses about 10% of the world's proven oil reserves, being the 4th largest oil producer after Venezuela (20% of the world's reserves), Saudi Arabia and Canada. Russia, by the way, is on the 8th place with reserves of 80,000 million barrels as of 2016. Iran is the third largest in terms of oil production in OPEC. Therefore, the information received from Iran on anti-government actions, made investors fear of possible interruptions in oil supplies, which, in turn, affected the next increase in oil prices.
    As the American oil service company Baker Hughes reported last Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 units to 742 over the past week. This also has a positive effect on oil prices, as it indicates some decrease in oil production in the US.
    Meanwhile, US oil companies have a significant prospect and an incentive to increase production while oil prices remain high. The growth of oil production in the US is one of the deterrents to the growth in oil prices.
    In November 2017, OPEC and another 10 oil-producing countries that are not part of the cartel have extended the deal to reduce global oil production by the end of 2018. The surplus of oil on the world market, which exerted pressure on prices for several years, is gradually being absorbed. The positive dynamics of oil prices, in general, remains. A further price increase is likely to reach $ 70 per barrel.
    Today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 21:00 (GMT) will report on oil and petroleum products in the US. And on Wednesday (15:30 GMT) the official weekly report of the US Energy Ministry will be presented. As expected, this agency will report a drop in oil and petroleum products by 4.1 million barrels last week (after a decline of 7.4 million barrels in the week before last). If the data are confirmed, they will further increase oil prices.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 67.00, 66.20, 64.50, 63.00, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.00, 57.00, 56.00
    Resistance levels: 68.00, 68.20, 69.00, 70.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 66.90. Stop-Loss. 68.20. Take-Profit 66.20, 65.00, 64.50, 63.00
    Buy Stop 68.20. Stop-Loss 66.90. Take-Profit 69.00, 70.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #194

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    GBP/USD: pound reacted positively to industrial production data
    10/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    According to official data published on Wednesday, UK manufacturing production in November increased by 0.4% (forecast was + 0.3%) and by 3.5% in annual terms. Data for October were revised upwards (+ 0.3%, and not 0.1%, as previously thought). Despite the fact that industrial production accounts for about a fifth of the country's economy, with the largest contribution to the economy by the service sector and retail trade, the pound reacted positively to the data presented.
    At the same time, data showed a slight increase in the UK trade deficit in November (to 12.2 billion pounds from 11.7 billion pounds in October, with a forecast of -10.7 billion pounds). Nevertheless, the pound continued to rise against the dollar after the release of the data.
    The dollar is again falling today after growth in the beginning of the year.
    On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan cut of 5% to 190 billion yen in buying some long-term government bonds. Market participants considered this a foreshadowing of the beginning of the curtailment of a large-scale program to stimulate the Japanese economy. Sales of the dollar against the yen against the backdrop of an increase in the yield of 10-year and 25-year Japanese government bonds provoked its decline against other currencies. By the beginning of today's European session, the dollar index DXY fell to 92.07 from the level of 92.2 on Tuesday.
    In general, the positive dynamics of the GBP / USD pair remains. Nevertheless, traders who trade in the pound and GBP / USD pair are cautious ahead of the start of trade talks between the EU and the UK. Uncertainty in the prospects for economic relations between the UK and the European Union and the disagreements in the British government over Brexit put pressure on the pound. The British government still has no common opinion on further actions and future relations with the EU.
    Back in November, UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond published negative forecasts for the growth of the British economy, and in December the IMF published a forecast that the GDP growth of the UK in 2018 will slow down to about 1.5% against the backdrop of declining consumer and company costs due to Brexit .
    At 13:00 (GMT) the report NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research of Great Britain) will be published with an estimate of GDP growth rates of the country. This indicator estimates the growth rate of the British economy during the last three months and is able to influence the monetary policy of the Bank of England. The high value of the indicator is a positive factor for GBP. Forecast: UK economic growth for the last three months was 0.5% (against + 0.5% in the previous 3-month period). If the data are confirmed, then you can expect a 2% increase in the UK economy in 2017. This is a very positive indicator, given the gloomy forecasts of economists regarding the British economy after the referendum on Brexit, held in June 2016.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    Short-term support level 1.3520 (EMA200 on 1-hour and EMA50 on 4-hour charts) kept GBP / USD from a deeper decline.
    The pair GBP / USD remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts.
    In case of consolidation above the local resistance level 1.3550, the GBP / USD growth will continue towards the resistance levels 1.3700 (EMA144), 1.3970 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1.4050 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
    The decline scenario will be related to the breakdown of the support level 1.3420 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the further decline of the GBP / USD to support levels of 1.3300 (the lows of December), 1.3210 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). The breakdown of the key support level 1.3150 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart) will return GBP / USD in to the global downtrend began in July 2014.
    Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3150
    Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3700, 1.3970, 1.4050

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3590. Take-Profit 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3150
    Buy Stop 1.3590. Stop-Loss 1.3470. Take-Profit 1.3630, 1.3700, 1.3970, 1.4050



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #195

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    EUR/USD: euro decline is suspended
    11/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    As the statistical agency Eurostat reported on Thursday, industrial production in the Eurozone rose by 1.0% in November (+ 3.2% in annual terms). The forecast of economists assumed an increase of 0.6% (+ 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year).
    Eurostat also raised the estimate of industrial production growth in the Eurozone for October.
    In December, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the Eurozone's manufacturing sector reached its highest level in the history of such observations (since mid-1997).
    The increase in investment costs of companies has contributed to the strongest growth in the Eurozone economy since 2007. The growth of industrial production at the moment is the strongest since August 2011.
    It is worth noting at the same time that such a strong growth in industrial production of the Eurozone is provided, mainly at the expense of Germany, where in November industrial production grew by 3.6% compared to the previous month.
    The data also show that the bullish economic trend persists in Germany. The surplus of the country's budget in 2017 amounted to 1.2% of GDP. The Bureau of Statistics Eurostat reported that Germany's GDP increased by 2.2% last year.
    The euro reacted rather sluggishly to the data presented, and the pair EUR / USD is trading today in the range near the 1.1950 mark.
    At the beginning of the year, the EUR / USD rose above 1.2070, however, subsequently fell to current levels. Investors are still cautious about buying euro against the dollar with EUR / USD rising above the level of 1.2000. ECB executives may fear that the strengthening of the euro could have a negative impact on the recovery of the Eurozone economy.
    Market participants expect that the minutes of the December meeting of the ECB (will be published at 12:30 GMT) will demonstrate "fairly neutral" rhetoric of the ECB leaders.
    If, however, the number of supporters of policy tightening in the Governing Council of the ECB grows, then it will exert increasing pressure on the ECB towards faster completion of monetary stimulus.
    And this is a positive factor for euro buyers and its further growth. In general, we can say that the positive dynamics of EUR / USD remains. As far as leaders are tolerant with respect to the growth of the EUR / USD pair towards 1.2400, 1.2500, it is likely to become clearer from the published protocols.
    Meanwhile, the US dollar rose on Thursday after the drop on Wednesday, when China denied media reports that Beijing could cut or stop purchases of US government bonds. This, in particular, was reported in the agency Bloomberg News.
    The dollar index DXY rose by 0.2%, to 92.46. However, the cautious-negative attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains; any upward correction in the DXY index is likely to be limited to 93.00 and used to build short positions in the dollar.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The pair EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
    At the beginning of the European session, the pair EUR / USD is trading in the range near 1.1950, below the short-term resistance level 1.1970 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The reduction to support levels 1.1855 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.1800 is corrective.
    So far, long positions are preferable. In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1970, the EUR / USD pair growth will resume with the nearest target near the resistance level 1.2100 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart).
    Only in case of breakdown of the key support levels 1.1660 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1.1585 (EMA200 on the daily chart) can we speak about the reversal of the bullish trend of the EUR / USD pair.
    Support levels: 1.1890, 1.1855, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1660, 1.1585
    Resistance levels: 1.1970, 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.1910. Stop-Loss 1.1975. Take-Profit 1.1890, 1.1855, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1660, 1.1585
    Buy Stop 1.1975. Stop-Loss 1.1910. Take-Profit 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  6. #196

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    S&P500: indexes continue to update highs
    12/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    While the dollar continues to scale down, the rally in the US stock market continues. On Friday, the main US indices reached new record highs, having successfully started in 2018.
    Against the backdrop of the continued confidence of investors that companies will report again on the strong profit growth for the last quarter of 2017, the American stock market continues its rapid growth, which began in January 2016.
    According to FactSet, the profits of companies from the S & P500 in the fourth quarter increased by about 11%. JPMorgan Chase & amp; Co. and Wells Fargo & amp; Co., part of the financial sector S & P500, today the first of the leading US banks will report on quarterly results. Economists expect profit growth.
    Investors also continue to assess the impact of the recently adopted tax bill on the US economy.
    Today, investors will follow the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of US consumer inflation data. According to the forecast, retail sales in the US are expected to grow by 0.5% in December (+ 0.8%, according to the previous release, and + 0.2% in November), CPI grew by 2.1% (in annual terms).
    Nevertheless, signs of a sharp increase in inflation are still few. So, the US producer price index (PPI) for December, published on Thursday, decreased by 0.1%.
    The threat that the current state of inflation may become a catalyst for the reversal of the bullish trend in the stock market is not yet relevant.
    The Fed said about 3 rate increases in 2018. Nevertheless, the Fed may slow the rate of rate hikes if inflation continues to be weak and macroeconomic indicators will deteriorate. Soft monetary policy will contribute to the further growth of the US stock market. Thus, soft monetary policy, expectations of economic growth amid the new tax policy, and strong reporting by US companies continue to stimulate purchases of US stock assets.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 2735.0, 2680.0, 2640.0, 2600.0, 2550.0, 2520.0
    Resistance levels: 2775.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 2730.0. Stop-Loss 2780.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2680.0, 2640.0, 2600.0, 2550.0, 2520.0
    Buy Stop 2780.0 Stop-Loss 2730.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2900.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  7. #197

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    AUD/USD: a day off in the US
    15/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    Published on Friday, the macro data, pointed to the growth of inflation in the US. According to the US Ministry of Labor, CPI in December rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, the base CPI index excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.3% (+1.8% in annual expression). Economists expect that by April, annual inflation will be above 2%. This is the most important fundamental factor, as the FRS relies on this basic CPI index when assessing the need for tightening monetary policy.
    Janet Yellen, leaving the post of the head of the Federal Reserve on February, said earlier that the weakness of inflation observed last year is a temporary phenomenon. The growth of inflationary pressures against the backdrop of a stable labor market and positive macro statistics gives the Fed the opportunity to raise rates this year at least three times, as expected.
    At the moment, the dollar is falling large.
    The US dollar index DXY fell to its lowest level since December 2014. This was promoted, first of all, by the growth of the euro. Published on Thursday, the ECB's protocols showed that leaders at the beginning of this year can change the targets of leading indicators if economic growth remains strong. Expectations of tightening monetary policy outside the United States, especially in the Eurozone, contributed to the weakening of the dollar and the growth of the euro.
    The euro in the basket of 6 currencies in the dollar index DXY takes about 57%, and its growth contributes to an active decline in the dollar.
    However, investors probably can underestimate the Fed's determination to raise interest rates.
    In addition, the tax reform and the consistently low unemployment rate in the US (about 4.1%) create the preconditions for accelerating the growth of wages, and this is also a factor that accelerates consumer inflation. There is a high probability that in the current year rates can be raised not three, but four times.
    There may be a situation where investors, skeptical about inflation and raising rates in the US, will be taken by surprise when the Fed starts raising rates quarterly, and the bearish trend of the dollar against this background will suddenly be broken.
    In conditions of an increase in the interest rate, the investment attractiveness of the dollar will grow.
    Meanwhile, this week investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators in Germany and the UK (Tuesday), the Eurozone (Wednesday), China's GDP (Thursday), the Bank of Canada decision on the interest rate (Wednesday), the publication of the Beige Book Fed (Wednesday) and data from the Australian labor market (Thursday 00:30 GMT).
    Economists expect that data on employment in Australia for December will be weak. Unemployment will remain at the same level of 5.4% and an excess of labor resources will remain.
    It is likely that the RBA is unlikely to decide to change the current monetary policy in conditions of weak growth in the labor market and the purchasing power of the population. While the growth rate of wages in the country will not grow, the RBA will not go on raising the interest rate, despite the emerging trend towards an early tightening of monetary policies in other major world central banks.
    The current growth in the AUD / USD pair is explained, first of all, by the weakening of the US dollar. If the ratio of investors to the US dollar starts to change for the better, then the bullish trend of the AUD / USD pair will not stand.
    At the moment, the number of short speculative positions on the AUD / USD pair in the foreign exchange market is 90%.
    Today in the US, a day off, US stock exchanges do not work, and against a background of a reduced volume of trades, large players can push the quotes of the AUD / USD pair even higher.
    Well, tomorrow, with the opening of the Asian session, the situation may change in the opposite direction. It is necessary to be vigilant when building long positions in the AUD / USD pair.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7795, 0.7710, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460
    Resistance levels: 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8160

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.7925. Stop-Loss 0.7975. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7795, 0.7710
    Buy Stop 0.7975. Stop-Loss 0.7925. Take-Profit 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8160



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  8. #198

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    NZD/USD: amid rising commodity prices
    16/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    On the eve, the DXY dollar index has reached its minimum for more than three years near the 90.13 mark, and for the year of 2017 the index has decreased by almost 10%, which was the strongest annual decline since 2003. At the beginning of the European session, the DXY index is near the 90.50 mark.
    After a many-day decline today for the first time there is a recovery in the US dollar.
    In general, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains. Expectations that soon the world's largest central banks will begin to wind down their stimulus programs for national economies and begin to raise interest rates, increase the attractiveness of major world currencies and reduce the attractiveness of the dollar.
    After strong growth over a period of ten years, American stock markets are receding into the background, and the largest regional stock markets, such as the European and Japanese stock markets, are coming to the fore. And this increases the demand for the euro and yen, for which the national stock assets are acquired. In this sense, commodity currencies, such as Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are especially sensitive to the cost of primary commodities on the world market, also keep pace. The observed large-scale weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices. This fully applies to oil and gas, metallic ores, as well as to agricultural products.
    The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder.
    In the last 203-th auction GDT (Global Dairy Trade), held on January 2, 2018, the price index for dairy products increased by 2.2%. Prices for powdered milk increased by 4.2%. The weighted average world price for dairy products was 3,124 USD / kg. And, although the prices are on average lower than the prices for the level of a year ago, there has recently been a slight increase in the price of dairy products. This, in particular, is contributed by the weakening of the US dollar, as commodity prices are mainly in US dollars.
    The general elections in New Zealand that took place at the end of September, as a result of which the conservative government, which achieved significant growth in the New Zealand economy, resigned, led to the fall of the New Zealand dollar. The business-sentiment of producers in the agricultural sector, the leading industry in New Zealand's economy, is still at a low level, reflecting a negative reaction to the new government.
    Nevertheless, the NZD / USD pair recovered completely after the fall against the background of the September elections in New Zealand. This was facilitated also by the weakening of the US dollar/
    So far, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains, and the positive dynamics of the pair NZD / USD still prevails.
    From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of 2.2% (against the previous value of + 0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7210, 0.7090, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800
    Resistance levels: 0.7310, 0.7430, 0.7550

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.7255. Stop-Loss 0.7315. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7210, 0.7090
    Buy Stop 0.7315. Stop-Loss 0.7225. Take-Profit 0.7430, 0.7550



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  9. #199

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    USD/CAD: probability of rate hike is high
    17/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    Despite the fact that the probability of today's interest rate increase in Canada is high, the Canadian dollar declined during the Asian session, and the pair USD / CAD rose today to 1.2460. In December, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 1.0% after doubling it during 2017. The head of the Bank of Canada Poloz said that when making decisions, the central bank will be guided by incoming economic data.
    The current level of inflation in Canada is below the target level of 2.0%. Nevertheless, ignoring a strong labor market and rising oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, is unlikely to work either.
    Most economists agree that today the Bank of Canada will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. It is likely that the Canadian dollar will strengthen on this event. However, further dynamics will depend on what the leaders of the Bank of Canada will say in the accompanying statement. If the Bank of Canada indicates that further increases will depend on the data, the upward momentum of the Canadian currency may soon weaken, while the USD / CAD pair will stop falling.
    If the accompanying statement points out improvements in the economy and signals about plans for further tightening, the Canadian dollar will continue to rise. In general, today's rate increase is already taken into account in prices. Only signals about further tightening of monetary policy in Canada will cause a significant strengthening of the Canadian dollar.
    The press conference of the Bank of Canada will begin at 16:15 (GMT), and the publication of the decision on the rate is scheduled for 15:00 (GMT).
    Later (at 19:00) will be published economic review "Beige Book". The publication of this report by the Fed usually does not have a strong impact on markets. Nevertheless, this document will contain a look at the current state of the economy, from the point of view of leading economists, analysts, representatives of US business.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
    Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2620, 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2470. Take-Profit 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
    Buy Stop 1.2470. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2620, 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  10. #200

    Default

    NZD/USD: US dollar received support
    18/01/2018
    Current dynamics

    Today, the dollar gained support and grew at the beginning of the Asian trading session. On Wednesday, Fed representatives, Robert Kaplan and Loretta Mester, spoke in favor of raising interest rates. They expect acceleration in the growth of the US economy and inflation. According to Robert Kaplan, inflationary pressures are "growing", and it will be better if the Fed starts raising rates "sooner rather than later".
    Apple announced on Wednesday that it would repatriate most of the profits it received abroad. Under the new tax laws, US companies that make profits outside the US will be able to pay a one-time tax of 15.5% of the repatriated assets. Apple said that the company will pay a one-time tax of $ 38 billion as a result of the repatriation of its foreign cash. If other large American companies follow Apple's example, this will increase demand for the dollar.
    Nevertheless, the negative mood of investors regarding the dollar is still preserved. The growth of the world economy outside the US will support the currencies of other countries where econic growth is expected, and will cause their strengthening against the dollar.
    At 13:30 (GMT) macro data from the United States will be published. The publication of the report of the US Department of Labor about the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the last week is expected, according to which the number of initial applications for unemployment fell to 250,000 (against 261,000 in the week before last). The result higher than expected will indicate the weakness of the labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar. If the data is confirmed, it should positively affect the dollar. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong labor market.
    Also at this time will be published indicators of activity in the real estate market in the US in December, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in January.
    At 21:30 (GMT) index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) of New Zealand, assessing conditions in the business environment of the country, will be published. The production PMI is considered an important indicator of general economic conditions. In November, the PMI was 57.2. If the updated data for December will be better than November's value, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    Yesterday, the NZD / USD upgraded the 2-month high near the 0.7330 mark and today again develops an upward move. So far, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains, and the positive dynamics of the NZD / USD still prevails. The breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.7330 (January highs) will cause growth towards resistance levels of 0.7430 (September highs), 0.7550 Fibonacci level of 50%).
    The signal to the resumption of sales of the NZD / USD will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.7240 (EMA200 on the weekly chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart, and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
    The purpose of the downward correction is the most important support level 0.7090 (EMA200 on the daily and monthly charts, EMA50 on the weekly chart).
    The breakdown of support levels 0.6865 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.6800 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the global downtrend.
    Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7090, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800
    Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7430, 0.7550

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7340. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7100
    Buy Stop 0.7340. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7550




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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