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  1. #281

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    USD/CAD: oil price growth supports CAD
    18/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    Uncertainty over the NAFTA negotiations puts pressure on Canada's investments and exports, said earlier in the week, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Lawrence Schembri.
    "Economic capacities are almost fully loaded, inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and yet rates remain below the neutral level, in part because we have to hedge ourselves because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations", added Lawrence Shembry.
    As you know, in April the Bank of Canada left the rate at the same level of 1.25%. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.
    "Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules", said in the central bank.
    Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices.
    So, Brent oil prices exceeded the $ 80 mark per barrel on Thursday, although they fell to 79.30 by the end of the trading day. The US decision to resume economic sanctions against Iran continued to support the rally in oil prices, which reached new highs since November 2014.
    If the bull market continues to be in the oil market, then the probability of strengthening the Canadian dollar will increase.
    At 12:30 (GMT), publication of data on retail sales and consumer inflation in Canada is planned. Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.3% in March, after rising by 0.4% in February. The level of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence, which reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of this indicator is a bullish factor for CAD.
    The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of prices relative to the retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services. The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The growth of CPI is a positive factor for CAD. Forecast: consumer prices rose in Canada by 0.4% in April (against +0.3% in March). The base CPI rose in April, expected to be +1.4% (in annual terms). Thus, the CPI indicators are still weak, so that the Bank of Canada could return to the issue of raising the interest rate.
    If the data are better than forecasts, then against the backdrop of rising oil prices, as well as against the fixation of profit in long positions on the US dollar at the end of the trading week, CAD can significantly strengthen against the USD.
    In any case, a surge in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected during the publication of this macro statistics.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.2805, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
    Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260
    Buy Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #282

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    S&P500: US and China agree on trade armistice
    21/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    Markets positively perceived the information that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. At last weekend's talks, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of goods manufactured in the US to reduce the US trade deficit with China, which is $ 375 billion now.
    The Trump administration tried to force China to agree to reduce the trade imbalance by $ 200 billion.
    Nevertheless, Beijing has refused to determine the exact amount of purchases in dollar terms, and now everything depends on the talks between the two presidents, Trump and Xi Jinping.
    On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that the administration of US President Donald Trump intends to "put the trade war on a pause" and postpone the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China, until the two sides discuss the details of the agreement to reduce the trade deficit.
    The successful season of reporting US companies for the first quarter also contributed to the growth of US stock indices in recent days.
    At the same time, long-term estimates of inflation in the US are still restrained, despite improvements in indicators. In this regard, investors are interested in how actively the Fed will react to one-time price increases.
    As you know, at the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. In 2017, the rates were also raised 3 times. This temp of tightening of monetary policy is already taken into account in quotes.
    According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases at 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes.
    Now investors will carefully monitor the release of the minutes of the Fed's May meeting (on Wednesday 18:00 GMT), which may shed light on how quickly rates will be raised in response to increased inflation.
    On Friday (13:20 GMT) the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will act. If he signals a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then US stock indices may fall again. As a rule, raising rates leads to the strengthening of the national currency and to a decrease in the attractiveness of the assets of the stock market.
    Meanwhile, the bullish trend of the US stock market remains.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 2712.0, 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0, 2530.0
    Resistance levels: 2741.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 2700.0. Stop-Loss 2742.0. Objectives 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0
    Buy Stop 2742.0. Stop-Loss 2700.0. Objectives 2760.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #283

    Default

    GBP/USD: negative dynamics prevails
    22/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    As the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, stated today, "the signs of the restoration of momentum can be manifested in the next few months". "If the momentum recovers, then, according to our guidelines, certain actions will follow logically", added Carney. In the meantime, Mark Carney suggests waiting for "recovery of momentum before raising the stakes".
    Another representative of the Bank of England Vlige spoke in the same vein, saying that "we can wait for a few more months without special expenses before raising rates".
    As you know, earlier in the month the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50%. In the face of continuing uncertainties regarding Brexit, as well as against the backdrop of the absence of "signs of recovery of momentum", the Bank of England preferred not to change the current conditions of monetary policy. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in the summer of 2016 did not happen, the collapse of the pound and the subsequent rapid growth of inflation significantly worsened the level of welfare of the British. The fall in the level of retail sales and domestic demand had a negative impact on the UK economy, focused primarily on the domestic market.
    The tightening of the monetary policy of the central bank would have a stimulating effect on the growth of consumer spending, especially with regard to imported goods.
    However, the increase in the interest rate makes higher interest rates on loans for commercial banks and for the population, including mortgage loans. A higher exchange rate of the national currency also reduces the competitiveness of export products abroad, which negatively affects the country's exporters. The deficit of the UK trade balance exceeds 3 billion pounds and has a tendency to increase. The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.
    On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on consumer inflation in the UK will be published. As expected, the consumer price index (CPI) will indicate that the growth rate of annual inflation in April did not change (2.5% against 2.5% in March).
    If the data does indicate an acceleration of inflation, the Bank of England will be forced to tighten monetary policy. Some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November, which will cause the strengthening of the pound.
    Meanwhile, representatives of the Federal Reserve regularly give signals about the commitment of the US central bank to a plan to further tighten monetary policy.
    So, on Tuesday, a member of the Committee on open market operations, the FRS Patrick Harker said that he will support three more increases in the key rate this year. It is characteristic that even last month Harker was among those who spoke of "two more rises".
    According to another member of the FOMC, Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy to avoid increasing risks to macroeconomic stability".
    Thus, the Bank of England's predilection for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210
    Resistance levels: 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3720, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
    Last edited by TifiaFX; 05-22-2018 at 10:51.

  4. #284

    Default

    GBP/USD: weakening of inflation pressure in Great Britain
    23/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, consumer prices in the UK in April rose by 2.4% (in annual terms) after growing 2.5% in March. The forecast assumed an increase of + 2.5%. The rate of price growth in April was the weakest since March 2017. On the one hand, this is good for British consumers; on the other hand, a weakening of inflationary pressures postpones a probable increase in the interest rate in the UK to a later date.
    At its previous meeting, the bank's management left rates at the same level, as official statistics pointed to the weakness of economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%. At the same time, the deficit of the UK trade balance exceeds 3 billion pounds sterling and has a tendency to increase.
    As the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said on Tuesday, we should wait "restoring of momentum before raising the stakes".
    Political events are also putting pressure on the pound. Conservative politician Jacob
    Rice-Mogg, who actively supported Brexit, accused the British government of weakness. Statements by a government spokesman suggest a renewed risk of a change in the composition of the country's leadership. The pound is unlikely to grow until this uncertainty is resolved with Brexit and the composition of the UK government.
    At the same time, the Fed leaders continue to give signals for the continuation of the Fed's policy, aimed at further tightening of monetary policy.
    According to FOMC member Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policies to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".
    Today, the focus of traders' attention will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the May meeting of the Fed. If it turns out that the Fed assesses the economy less optimistically than the market expects, then it can deploy the dollar, or at least suspend its strengthening.
    At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. However, investors expect that on the background of positive macro statistics and a strong labor market in the US, the Fed can make 4 rate increases this year.
    This will significantly increase the investment attractiveness of the dollar among investors looking for a stable profit.
    If the Fed's protocols contain signals about the possibility of 4 rate increases this year, then the strengthening of the dollar will continue.
    The different focus of the monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States will further reduce the GBP / USD.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
    Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3450. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
    Buy Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3505, 1.3600


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #285

    Default

    GBP/USD: retail sales in the UK rose in April
    24/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) report released on Thursday, retail sales in UK rose 1.6% in March after falling by -1.1% in March. The data presented became a pleasant surprise for the pound buyers after in the 1st quarter of this year compared to the last quarter of 2017, sales decreased by 0.5%.
    The increase in retail sales may indicate the restoration of consumer confidence, as well as the acceleration of inflation, which may prompt the Bank of England to tighten its monetary policy. Nevertheless, the data released on Wednesday on consumer price inflation for April showed the weakest growth in more than a year.
    In a broader perspective, "the growth in retail sales has slowed significantly, and the growth in sales of food, household items and sales in online stores has largely been offset by a decline in sales of many other goods and services", said National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Rob Kent-Smith. At the same time, it is likely that the salaries of the British will grow only gradually. In this case, the retail sector is likely to remain under pressure.
    The UK economy is focused mainly on the domestic market, while the retail and domestic consumption sector is an important part of the British economy.
    It is expected that in 2018 the UK economy will grow more slowly than other developed economies, as the uncertainty of the Brexit conditions puts pressure on activity and investment.
    On Tuesday, the Governor of the Bank of England and members of the Committee on Monetary Policy said in Parliament that the bank could raise interest rates "in a few months". However, we should wait for "recovery of momentum before raising rates".
    At the same time, as follows from the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed, published on Wednesday, the leaders of the US central bank came to the conclusion that "the next increase in interest rates will be expedient in the near future". However, there is no consensus on 3 or 4 rate increases this year among the leaders of the Fed.
    Nevertheless, the leaders of the Fed intend to systematically pursue the planned monetary policy aimed at its further tightening.
    With an increasing interest rate, the attractiveness of the dollar will grow. According to some leaders of the Fed, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".
    Thus, the different focus of the monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the US, as well as the uncertainty about Brexit, will further reduce the GBP / USD pair.
    From the news for today we are waiting for the speech at 17:00 (GMT) of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. If he touches on the topic of monetary policy in his speech, then volatility in pound trade can grow dramatically.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
    Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3680, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3470. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
    Buy Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3680



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  6. #286

    Default

    WTI: oil quotes are down
    25/05/2018
    Current dynamics

    After the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry reported on Wednesday about the growth of oil reserves in the US last week by 5.8 million barrels (although analysts had expected a decrease of 2.2 million barrels), quotes of oil prices crawled down.
    Oil prices are also under pressure due to reports that OPEC at the June meeting may decide to increase oil production amid fears of a reduction in production in Iran and Venezuela.
    On Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia and other major oil producers at the OPEC+ meeting next month will discuss mitigation of the terms of the agreement on production reduction. The Russian minister noted that he will discuss with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members the possibility of a "gradual recovery of oil production".
    Thus, the direction of the oil price dynamics is currently in the grip between the growth of oil reserves in the US and the intention of OPEC to increase oil production, on the one hand, and geopolitical risks, on the other hand.
    Among geopolitical risks - the resumption of US sanctions against Iran and the aggravation of the crisis in Venezuela, which led to a reduction in oil production in the country. Trump's decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal" with Iran is still a strong driver for rising oil prices. Because of possible US sanctions against Iran, the supply of oil in the world market may decrease by about 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil.
    As we see, the risks associated with the possible increase in oil production by OPEC so far outweigh, and oil prices are declining.
    On Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US will be published. Their number almost weekly grows and at the moment is 844 units. Another growth of this indicator will be another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 69.10, 68.00, 66.90, 66.30, 65.50
    Resistance levels: 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 75.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 68.70. Stop-Loss 70.10. Take-Profit 68.00, 66.90, 66.30, 65.50
    Buy Stop 70.10. Stop-Loss 68.70. Take-Profit 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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