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Thread: Analytics from Fibo Group

  1. #81


    Economic calendar for the week

    The global economy is bottoming out, with China appearing to have bottomed out in February, and the US has been pulling in since the end of April. The main threat to the global economy is the repeated increase in the number of infections as quarantine measures are weakened.

    The optimism associated with lifting restrictions in a number of major countries seems premature to some investors. A new wave of decline may overwhelm the assets of developing countries in the second or third quarter, however, there is a chance that at the same time, stocks, bonds and currencies will still complete the year at levels higher than current.
    Weekly calendar:
    05/11/2020, Monday
    ANZ New Zealand Business Confidence Index for May.

    05/12/2020, Tuesday
    US April Consumer Price Index (MoM);
    US Core Consumer Price Index for April (MoM).

    05/13/2020, Wednesday
    Australia's Interest rate for May;
    RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement;
    New Zealand Interest Rate Decision;
    UK Preliminary GDP (q/q);
    Fed Chair Powell Speaks.

    05/14/2020, Thursday
    Australia's April employment change;
    New Zealand's April unemployment rate;
    New Zealand's Annual budget data;
    BOE Gov Bailey Speaks;
    BOC Governor Poloz Speaks.

    05/15/2020, Friday
    German GDP (q/q);
    US April Core Retail Index;
    US Retail Sales (MoM) for April.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

  2. #82


    Stagnation of the UK economy

    In March, Britain's GDP fell by 5.8%, with a projected decrease of 7.9%.
    As a result, UK GDP for the first quarter of this year fell by 2.0% against the forecast of -2.6%, which led to the appearance of negative values in the annual report of -1.6%. Since the actual data turned out to be noticeably better than predicted, the activity of GBP sellers remains moderate. Moreover, the current report can be perceived as moderately positive, which may support the GBP in the medium term.
    We remind you that the quarterly report does not take into account the data for April, so in the second quarter the data may turn out to be much worse than the current ones - a bearish fundamental factor for GBP.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #UK #stagnation #economy

  3. #83


    The Fed will use the tools "fully"

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke for the Peterson Institute today, saying he was ready to use all the monetary policy tools to the full extent, which put moderate pressure on the USD. Such a statement could put incredibly strong pressure on the USD. But in response to a question about negative rates, the head of the Federal Reserve reassured markets by saying that all FOMC members did not find this tool attractive.
    Keeping the main interest rate above the zero mark is a bullish signal for the USD, which may deter it from developing a more powerful decline.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #USD #US #Fed

  4. #84


    RBNZ: Preparing for negative interest rates

    The RBNZ held a meeting on Wednesday morning, and although no significant policy changes were expected, they nevertheless presented a worthy surprise to traders:
    - #QE Doubling Asset Buyback Program. An increase in the program for the acquisition of large assets (LSAP-government bonds and local government bonds) to $60 billion from $33 billion.
    - The regulator gave a signal of readiness for a further reduction in rates in the area of negative values. A possible decrease to minus 0.5% in November.
    The combination of these factors will put pressure on #NZDUSD in the future. However, if the economy improves, we will see that this scenario is canceled and that will contribute to rapid growth. It is too early to make strategic decisions, we recommend considering a shorter-term trading in this currency pair.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!
    Trading Terms: Forex market analysis by our experts - FIBO Group
    Account Opening: Forex and CFD trading since 1998 - FIBO Group forex broker

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #RBNZ #QE #NZDUSD

  5. #85


    Unemployment rate in Australia jumps to 6.2%

    According to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in April the unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, was 6.2%, the value of the indicator turned out to be lower than the forecasts of economists forecasting growth to 8.3%.
    The Australian economy lost 594,300 jobs last month and the total number of unemployed was 12,418,700.
    We believe that due to the almost 100% integration of production cycles in China and Australia, we will see the growth of the AUD/USD currency pair to 0.70000 against the backdrop of the already begun accelerated economic recovery in China.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trade #AUDUSD #Australia #unemployment

  6. #86


    Bank of Canada’s Poloz sees ‘glimmer’ of hope for oil prices

    Yesterday the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz said that he sees 'the beginning of better times for oil':
    - The remarks of Poloz followed the publication of a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday indicating global signs of recovery compared to Black April.
    - The IEA attributes the 'sharp decline in production' in non-OPEC countries, led by Canada and the United States. And as we can see, dozens of Canadian energy companies have reduced production.
    In his speech Poloz did not fail to recall a decrease in reserves of 700 thousand barrels. The system begins to gain momentum, which is certainly a strong wave of optimism not only for oil quotes, but also for the currency pair #USDCAD (restoration of the Canadian over three months perspective).
    Trade with the Fibo Group!
    Trading Terms: Forex market analysis by our experts - FIBO Group
    Account Opening: Forex and CFD trading since 1998 - FIBO Group forex broker

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #BoC #Poloz #speech

  7. #87


    Oil: Saudi Arabia sharply reduced exports

    Saudi Arabia continues to push global oil prices upward, cutting production and exports to a minimum of almost 20 years. Saudi Aramco announced a sharp drop in shipments in June. Buyers will receive 10-30% less oil than ordered.
    The current situation reflects that market sentiment has changed again, only now everyone has switched from the "panic sale" mode to the "panic shopping" mode. Saudis from market destroyers became market makers again, setting an example for others and sending positive signals to the market.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #oil #SaudiArabia

  8. #88


    Market Watch
    Oil continues to grow

    In most cases, the first trading day of the week contains the least amount of important macroeconomic reports, which means trading activity in most currency pairs can remain low to moderate.

    I’ll draw your attention to the report on GDP figures from in Japan for the first quarter of this year. The data came in above analysts’ expectations, which is a bullish signal for the stock market, but bearish for JPY, since any improvement in the economic situation reduces interest in safe haven assets such as the yen.

    Nevertheless, buying activity in the USD/JPY currency pair remains restrained, although the bullish scenario remains a intact until the quotes return below 106.70 - the nearest strong technical support level.

    And now let's move on to the trouble brewing between the USA and China, which is generating a demand for safe haven assets. Let me remind you that from last Friday, the ban on the purchase of chips made by Huawei came into force - this is the next stage of the trade war between the world’s 2 largest economies which has increased the demand for gold.

    Today, gold is trading above $1,770 an ounce, which is still below the yearly highs. Any further deterioration in trade relations between the US and China will contribute to a slowdown in global economic growth and, as a result, an increase in demand for gold. The next target for buyers remains $1800 per ounce.

    I will also draw your attention to the growth in the oil price and the new highs since mid-March. The price has managed to overcome the previous high at $30.55 per barrel and now there is a chance of further growth to the $35 a barrel mark.

    Despite the steady increase in oil prices, demand for the Canadian dollar remains restrained. Thus, the USD/CAD currency pair is still holding above previous lows and the psychological support level of 1.4000. Nevertheless, the risk of further selling pressure continues to increase. The main bullish driver for CAD is rising oil prices. Therefore, any further growth in the “black gold” can provoke a strong selloff for this currency pair.

    The above review is not a direct guide to trading, and can only be classed as a recommendation.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexbroker #forexnews #forexanalysis #economics #economiccalendar #financing #trader #dollar #news #recentnews #forexforecast

  9. #89


    Economic calendar for the week

    The world is gradually moving out of quarantine: the “social distance” measures in Hong Kong are about to expire, the Indian authorities are preparing to announce new concessions in isolation, and Japan may cancel the emergency regime in megacities. Meanwhile, the chairman of the Federal Reserve will report to Congress on the implementation of financial assistance programs under the CARES law, which was adopted in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
    Weekly calendar:
    05/18/2020, Monday
    - GDP for the 1st quarter of 2020;
    - Non-working day in Canada.
    05/19/2020, Tuesday
    - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the US Senate;
    - UK #unemployment in April.
    05/20/2020, Wednesday
    - UK #inflation. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April;
    - EU #inflation. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April;
    - Canada #inflation. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April;
    - Protocol of the April meeting of the Fed;
    - US crude oil reserves.
    05/21/2020, Thursday
    - PMI Manufacturing in the USA for May;
    - PMI manufacturing in England in May.
    05/22/2020, Friday
    - PMI manufacturing in Germany in May.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!
    Trading Terms: Forex market analysis by our experts - FIBO Group
    Account Opening: Forex and CFD trading since 1998 - FIBO Group forex broker

    #fibogroup #forex #forexbroker #forexnews #forexanalysis #economics #economiccalendar #financing #trader #dollar #news #recentnews #forexforecast

  10. #90


    Japan officially entered recession

    First quarter GDP data released on Monday underscored the expanding impact of the outbreak, with exports falling 6% - the most since the devastating earthquake in March 2011:
    ▪️Japan's economy in the 1st quarter declined by 0.9%; in relation to the 1st quarter of last year, the decline in GDP amounted to 2.2%. Such numbers are not news, because already in the 4th quarter of 2020, Japan's GDP was already in the red (-1.9% q/q) due to higher taxes, and even then it was clear that against the background of coronavirus, the third world economy would survive a recession.
    We believe that the decline will continue in the 2nd quarter, which was subject to the most stringent quarantine restrictions.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!
    Trading Terms: Forex market analysis by our experts - FIBO Group
    Account Opening: Forex and CFD trading since 1998 - FIBO Group forex broker

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #recession #Japan #GDP

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