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  1. #1
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    Default Analytics from Fibo Group

    Daily analytics from the experts of Fibo Group

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    The dollar is the strongest currency

    The flight of investors to a safe place leaves behind all currencies except the US dollar and Gold. The funds were simply forced to leave Asia and in search of security in the US dollar, gold and bonds.
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    #AUDUSD was trading at an 11-year low of $ 0.6603.
    #NZDUSD - at a four-month low of $ 0.6310.
    #USDJPY has grown 2% in the past two days due to weak Japanese economic data and concerns about the coronavirus.
    #EURUSD this week dropped to a 3-year low and is trading at $ 1.0794.
    #XAUUSD is trading at 7-year highs.
    #UST yield on 10-year treasury bonds below 1.5%.
    =======
    In the current situation, the US economy is simply less prone to any slowdown in world trade, and for the foreign exchange market it is the US dollar that is an obvious candidate. This will be the main reason for the new purchase of the dollar against the euro in the near future.

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    Brexit: "If there is no progress, we will stop cooperating"

    On Thursday, the UK government published a 46 page document explaining its position on a future trade agreement with the EU after Brexit.
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    In fact, the document once again emphasized the tough stance of Britain, which the European side simply could not support (too long list of preferences). As a result, we have a continuation of the confrontation between Europe and Britain. When trading two currencies of these countries, we still look in favor of a strong euro (purchases #EURGBP) in anticipation of the start of negotiations that will start next Monday.
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    China's manufacturing PMI drops in February amid epidemic

    PMI in China's industrial sector in February, amid an outbreak of coronavirus, sharply slowed to a record 35.7 points, which was significantly lower than analysts' expectations, according to data released on Saturday by the state statistical office of the PRC.

    Compared to January of this year, when the PMI stopped at around 50 points, the figure fell by 14.3 percentage points. Due to the coronavirus epidemic, experts predicted a further slowdown, but only to 46 points.

    A PMI value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity, lower - about its decline. Prior to this, February 2019 was the worst for industrial PMI in the last three years, when the figure slowed to 49.2 points.

    On December 31, 2019, the Chinese authorities informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of unknown pneumonia in the city of Wuhan in the central part of the country (Hubei Province). Experts have identified the causative agent of the disease - this is a new coronavirus. WHO recognized the outbreak as an emergency of international importance and gave the disease its official name - COVID-19.

    The number of infected in mainland China reached 79.2 thousand people, 2835 died, over 39 thousand were cured. Cases of infection outside the PRC were recorded, according to WHO on Friday, in 51 countries, the number of infected reached 4691, 67 people died.

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    /Bloomberg

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    "Your Royal Highness": US asks Saudi Arabia to stop

    According to Politico, 13 Republican senators addressed a letter to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

    - “Your Royal Highness,” - they write. “ - The United States has for many years been a strong and reliable partner of Saudi Arabia. In the light of this close strategic relationship, the kingdom’s plans to lower prices and increase production capacity were deeply worried. This led to the collapse of world oil prices in a situation when the financial markets of the world have already suffered serious losses. "
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    Since the beginning of 2020, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by 54% to $ 30.5, that is, towards the levels of the end of 2015. High-cost shale oil production is becoming unprofitable.
    Shales are forced to reduce production, up to the conservation of deposits. Upstream companies have significantly reduced costs in the hope of waiting for a period of low oil prices.
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    In order to get out of the depths of stagnation, American oil companies need quotes of their oil at about $ 50 per barrel (according to Rystad Energy, only a few shale companies have a break-even level below current prices, and more than 95% receive losses)
    Even if a miracle happens and #WTI prices stabilize at $ 40, it will still entail the collapse of the US oil industry.

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    Saudi Arabia promised months to fill the market with cheap oil

    "The Department of Energy has instructed Saudi Aramco to continue delivering oil at 12.3 million barrels per day over the coming months," the Saudi Arabian Energy Ministry said in a document.

    The maximum production policy was announced by Saudi Arabia after Russia refused to cut production. The kingdom kept its production at around 9.7 million barrels per day and is now increasing it by a third. In addition, Riyadh announced a sharp decline in prices for its varieties: April shipments to Europe will be shipped at a price 10.25 dollars below Brent.
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    As a result of the policy of maximum production, the United States will suffer first of all.
    Their oil storage facilities are half full and can accommodate another 135 million barrels.
    With a weekly increase in US commercial oil reserves of 14 million b / d, all storage facilities will be full in 10 weeks.
    Lack of storage will drive up the cost of freighting tankers that can be filled with oil in the absence of ground reservoirs, and will make exporting black gold from the US economically pointless.

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    Global recession

    Global markets have so far failed to find at least some respite and be in a downward corkscrew.

    - Dollar updates historic highs.

    - The British pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 35 years.

    - Oil broke through $ 25 per barrel in value (Iraq called on OPEC to convene an extraordinary OPEC + meeting to stabilize the market)

    - Bank of Australia lowered its key rate and moves to manual control of profitability [state bonds]
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    We believe that the reversal is close, because liquidity crisis is over. This is indicated by the dynamics of the value of gold, which is consolidating in the new range. Investors have ceased to get rid of defensive assets, as the Fed and other Central Banks of the world coordinate efforts to ensure dollar liquidity around the world using tools such as swap lines. We expect these fears to dissipate and then we can expect a recovery that could be as strong as the fall in recent days.
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    Counterattack of central banks

    Central banks around the world include anti-virus boost.
    The European Central Bank has launched a program of redemption of bonds worth 750 billion euros, which will last at least until the end of the year.
    The Central Bank of Australia lowered the rate to 0.25%, Brazil - to a record low 3.75%, and the Swiss regulator, although it kept the rate, announced an increase in foreign exchange interventions against the strengthening of the franc.

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    Forex analytics

    Market Watch

    Europe is preparing for a total quarantine


    On Thursday, March 19, it became quite complicated for Europe and, in particular, European currencies. Let me remind you that Italy still faces a continuous quarantine zone which restricts the movement of the population. France also followed in the footsteps of Italy and in a number of other European countries the situation remains quite complex. Given the rapid spread of the virus in Europe, the situation is bound to remain volatile in the coming days.
    As a result, we observed a sharp fall in the EUR / USD currency pair which brought it to the lowest levels since 2017. At the same time, there remains a lot of buying interest around the 1.0785 level which for now should keep the Euro from suffering further losses.
    The situation is similar with the GBP / USD currency pair which hit historical lows. Today we are already seeing some type of rebound with the target at 1.2000 and even to 1.2125. This scenario will be a major target but we may see a return to the support level of 1.1785. However, active market purchases are no longer feasible, since now there is no way to place a short “stop” to get a risk to profit ratio of 1 to 3 or more.
    The rapid deterioration of the economic situation in Europe and the talk by several countries on the possible extension of quarantine, as well as moves by the Fed who are attempting to save the US stock market, contributed to the strengthening of the USD. I’ll draw attention to the US dollar index, which has reached its highest level since 2016, which, in turn, increases the risk of a strong correction in the short term.
    Now let's move on to the oil market and in particular, American grade WTI. After collapsing to $ 20.5 per barrel, buying interest has picked up. But it’s hard to imagine a significant increase in prices until the position of Russia and Saudi Arabia on the issue of production, as well as stabilization of the situation associated with the coronavirus, changes.
    And traditionally for the Friday review, we will consider two transactions for traders on the purchase of the GBP / USD currency pair in full lot. The first deal to buy was opened on Thursday, March 19, at a price of 1.1480. The Take Profit order was set at 1.1650. As you know, the pair reached the level of 1.1792 that day, but then collapsed under the support level of 1.1465. Since buyers immediately managed to return above the noted support level, it was decided to open another buy deal from the level of 1.1480, setting a Take Profit at 1.1780 - the previous maximum. The total Profit on two transactions amounted to $ 4700.

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    US will buy a billion barrels of oil

    The US Treasury Department recommends that President Donald Trump allocate $ 10-20 billion for the purchase of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

    At current prices of the American WTI grade ($ 22 per barrel for delivery in April), this means a purchase of 454-909 million barrels. The acquisition of oil will be aimed at keeping the reserve filled to capacity for a decade.

    How exactly this will be done is unclear, most likely, things will not go beyond verbal rhetoric, because strategic oil reserve a week ago contained 635 million barrels with a total capacity of 727 million barrels.

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