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  1. #1

    Default Analytics from Fibo Group

    Daily analytics from the experts of Fibo Group

  2. #2


    Market Watch
    Discovering the vaccine

    One of the main topics in the past few weeks remains a phased plan for most countries to exit the quarantine measures. But as we can see now, business activity is still very weak. Nevertheless, investors are optimistic, because a number of large companies have announced some positive results regarding vaccine testing. As a result, the US stock market has returned into positive territory, and we are also seeing a general strengthening of risky currencies such as AUD and NZD.

    Let me remind you that yesterday the US published consumer confidence figures, which, unfortunately, came in under expectations, thereby once again confirming that the recovery process will take a lot of time. As a result, we observed a moderate weakening of the USD along with most currencies.

    I also draw your attention to the escalation of the conflict between the United States and China. Protests in Hong Kong reduce investor interest in this financial Hub which in turn contributes to the flow of capital to the United States, thereby supporting the US stock market.

    Despite all this, the risk of the second phase of the crisis remains elevated, as indicated by the demand for gold, which is still trading above the psychological level of $1,700 per ounce.

    And now we turn to the comments from the head of the ECB. She stated that the “soft” scenario of the ECB is now outdated. The economic downturn is now seen somewhere between the “medium” and the “serious” scenario. The point is that, according to the latest results for this year, the economy of the currency block will shrink from 8 to 12% but even so the market reacted very calmly to this statement. The Euro currency pairs trading volatility remained within the average indicators, indicating that traders understand this and have taken this into account.

    Also, Christina Lagarde said that after the pandemic there will be no new debt crisis, thereby providing moderate support for EUR.

    I will complete today's review with the “black gold” market. The price of American grade WTI returned to the technical resistance level at $34.5 per barrel. Further growth will require a strong bullish fundamental factor. Therefore, there is a risk of a moderate decline in oil prices.

    The above review is not a direct guide to trading, and can only be classed as a recommendation.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!


  3. #3


    Repair and Prepare: EU unveils 750 bln euro plan for coronavirus recovery

    On Wednesday the European Commission announced an anti-crisis plan, under which it will pay the EU countries €750 billion (instead of €500 billion) in the form of grants and loans.
    Most of the money will go to Italy and Spain, as the countries most affected by the pandemic. Together, these 2 countries will receive grants and loans in the amount of €313 billion.
    Altogether, this European recovery plan will provide 1.85 trillion euros to help launch the economy and ensure further development of Europe.
    #EURUSD reacted with growth to such a statement and reached our previously announced target at 1.10. Against the background of a wider volume of incentives (750 billion instead of 500 billion), further growth of #EURUSD is quite natural.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #EU #aid #grant #loan

  4. #4


    Swiss Bank sells off CHF

    Yesterday, the head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Thomas Jordan, spoke about the state of the monetary policy in Switzerland - the main message is that now it is time to more actively regulate the region's monetary policy. This is primarily due to the fact that against the background of lower rates and negative returns worldwide, the deposit rate of 0.75% and even in such a reliable currency as CHF provokes an increase in the national currency.
    An increase in the value of the franc is detrimental to the entire economy, and especially to Swiss exporters.
    The immediate measures voiced by the head of the SNB are:
    - Key rate reduction at the next meeting;
    - Balance expansion (i.e. there will be more Swiss francs).
    We are waiting for sharp pulses up on these drivers.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #CHF #Swiss #bank #franc #Switzerland

  5. #5


    Brexit: deadlock again

    Recently the media reported that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to fly to Brussels in the second half of June. However, there are no special changes in the exit procedure as of today. Both sides cannot agree among themselves and continue to pull a strap.
    It is unlikely that the situation will radically change in the near future. It feels like the British, under the pretext of total quarantine, decided to delay this event even further.
    The statement by the Central Bank manager of England, Andrew Bailey, adds even more uncertainty: “The key rate of England could go down and this issue was relevant earlier. However, now there is no particular sense in this”.
    We believe that political factors can be completely discounted and not taken into account. And here is the rhetoric to not reduce the key rate to use as the key driver of growth #GBPUSD all June.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #Brexit #UK

  6. #6


    Chinese gambit: US imposes sanctions on China

    Washington blacklisted 33 Chinese companies, almost all specializing in computer technology and software. The pretext for these sanctions was the "oppression of the Uyghurs" in the country. However, the most likely reason is that Beijing violated the Hong Kong transfer agreement. I think from this and the next round of confrontation between the United States and China will begin after a six-month break.
    It must be understood that this is not a one-goal game - the People’s Bank of China is slowly but surely devaluing the yuan, the rate of which has already reached its minimum since the 2008 crisis. For the American economy it is very painful, trade with the region is becoming unprofitable.
    America needs a weak dollar like air and they are doing everything possible to achieve this goal. In particular, today Donald Trump announced the holding of a press conference on China. We are waiting for ardent statements about "genocide" and other flashy phrases in the best traditions of Donald.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #sanctions

  7. #7


    Market Watch
    Canadian GDP

    The world economy is on the verge of collapse with most countries showing record declines, but the situation in the stock markets remains relatively stable. Oil prices are recovering despite the unexpected growth in stocks.

    Let me remind you that yesterday the US Department of Energy recorded an increase in oil reserves of almost 8 million barrels, while analysts predicted a decrease of 2.5 million which means the forecast was missed by more than 10 million barrels. In any case the price of WTI crude oil continued to rise. All this indicates that traders and investors are extremely optimistic about the near future.

    The expectation of a rapid recovery in the global economy is one of the key bull drivers for the black gold market. At the same time, it is already evident that the reduction in oil production in the framework of the OPEC+ deal, which entered into force on May 1, is not able to fully compensate for the decrease in physical demand for oil. As a result, the risk of a short-term decline in oil prices remains elevated.

    I also draw your attention to the published report on inflation figures in the eurozone which came in as analysts had expected and so the market remained quiet. Therefore, only a weakening of the USD can provide the necessary support to the EUR/USD currency pair to reach the target level of 1.1145.

    Now let's move on to the upcoming publication of GDP in Canada. This release is very important, as even rising oil prices can’t provide significant CAD support. Let me remind you that economists expect a decrease in GDP by 10% in March which is a strong bearish factor for CAD. Therefore, if the GDP figures come in below expectations the CAD may come under pressure at the time of release.

    And we will complete today's review with an analysis of a transaction for the purchase of a EUR/USD currency pair in the amount of 2 lots from the technical support level of 1.1000. Let me remind you that this level served as a resistance for a long time. The Take Profit order was set at the next technical resistance level of 1.1075.The Stop Loss order at 1.0975. The profit on this transaction amounted to $1,500, which amounted to three times the risk.

    The above review is not a direct guide to trading, and can only be classed as a recommendation.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!


  8. #8


    USA: GDP fell 5% in the 1st quarter

    Preliminary US GDP data released yesterday showed a 5% decline. This is the first quarterly contraction of the economy since the beginning of 2014, as well as the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2008. Then, against the backdrop of the financial crisis, the economy fell 8.4% year on year.
    This data has little effect on the dynamics of the US dollar, however, it can be used at the time of publication of similar data in other countries. With more positive indicators, it is possible to strengthen the growth of the national currency, the GDP of which will be published.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

    #fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #USA #GDP

  9. #9


    Economic calendar for the week

    Slowly but surely, business activity indicators in the world are growing. #Covid19 pandemic has long reached a plateau and is in decline. The OPEC+ ministers are discussing the possibility of holding negotiations scheduled for June 9-10, 2020 almost a week earlier on June 4.
    And yet, there are political factors that could trigger a new wave of dollar appreciation:
    On Friday, May 29, US President Donald Trump announced a series of sanctions against China; Mass riots across America will force investors to temporarily go cache. This week's drivers may not work due to a more powerful impulse from America. Nonetheless:
    Weekly calendar:
    06/01/2020, Monday
    - Updated PMI in the USA for May;
    - Updated PMI in the UK for May;
    - Updated PMI in the EU for May.
    06/02/2020, Tuesday
    - Reserve Bank of Australia Rate (RBA).
    06/03/2020, Wednesday
    - Bank of Canada rate;
    - US Crude Oil Reserves.
    06/04/2020, Thursday
    - ECB rates, forecast - unchanged; Lagarde press conference.
    06/05/2020, Friday
    - #NonFarmPayroll US Labor Market Data Block for May;
    - Canada #unemployment in May.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!

  10. #10


    Market Watch
    China is ready for tough countermeasures

    Let's start today's issue with the conflict between the US and China. I will your draw attention to the fact that China is still trying to restore the fragile peace agreement. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the United States to rectify its mistakes and stop heading in the wrong direction or otherwise China will make moves protect its own interests as well as security.

    To confirm China is serious with its intentions, Bloomberg published a report informing that the Chinese government ordered large state agricultural firms to suspend purchases of some US agricultural products from the United States. As a result, the US dollar came under intense selling pressure. In early trading in Asia, we observed a significant strengthening of the AUD/USD currency pair, which continued into the first half of the European session and amounted to almost 2%. Which means at this time that active market purchases are no longer appropriate.

    Now let's move on to the oil market, which continues to recover amid optimism regarding the upcoming OPEC + meeting, which will be announced today. Currently the demand for oil of the American grade WTI remains moderate. The Bulls are failing to break above $ 36 per barrel. As a result, the risk of corrective decline remains elevated.

    I will also draw your attention to the fact that during the European trading session there will be no important macroeconomic publications. In any case trading activity remains quite high. Given all this, there is a risk of a surge in volatility during the opening of markets in the United States. Any US response to China, as well as certain news releases can have a strong impact on the US currency.

    It is also necessary to consider the risks for the US stock market. The main indices began to adjust during the premarket, so I do not exclude an increase in selling activity when the market opens. Pressure is exerted not only by the conflict between the USA and China, but also by internal conflicts and unrest in the country. Therefore, the volatility of trading during the American session may increase significantly.

    That’s all from me. It would be wise to closely monitor the latest news and be prepared for any surprises in the market.
    Trade with the Fibo Group!


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